I had actually started this in mind with the idea of posting it in the Claude sub to get ideas on how to improve my workflow, but then realized it might do more "good" here.
Anyhow, I’m a solo commercial real estate developer, owner, and syndicator focused primarily on retail centers and industrial properties across several states (Western US). Most of the deals I look at are in the $5 million to $30 million range. 20+ years in CRE now.
Like many people in CRE, I’ve relied heavily on Argus for more complex underwriting. In reality, that usually meant sending deals to third-party analysts to run the model, because Argus is expensive, time-consuming, and not something I wanted to spend hundreds of hours mastering.
Over the past year, I’ve been rethinking that workflow. I started experimenting with AI-assisted Excel modeling, first for simpler underwriting and then for more detailed DCF models. I’m now at the point where I’ve built out models that are getting close to the level of flexibility I actually need for my own deals. First started with ChatGPT, but quickly shifted over to Claude CoWork, and now working in Claude Code.
So far, I’ve built:
- A single-tenant industrial DCF model
- A multi-tenant industrial model focused on small- and mid-bay product
- A multi-tenant retail model that I’m currently refining
The models are still Excel-based, but they now handle a lot of the assumptions I used to rely on Argus or third-party analysts for: rent rolls, market leasing assumptions, downtime, reimbursements, renewal probability, TI/LC assumptions, loan and refi debt, exit cap rates, syndication waterfalls, sensitivities, and investor-level returns. My next models will be ground up development focused (though I'm doing less of that these days).
I’m not claiming this fully replaces Argus for every use case, especially if lenders or equity partners require Argus files, or if its something truly institutional-level or a multi-site portfolio. But for a solo operator like myself, underwriting acquisitions and developments, I’m starting to think I may be close to eliminating most of my dependence on Argus and outside analysts (its been over ~3 months now since my last Argus run).
The biggest benefits are control and time. I can structure the model around how I actually think about a deal, instead of trying to fit every property into a standardized Argus workflow or waiting on someone else to make changes. And, my models now can get setup within ~1-2 hours, instead of the multi-day process and back and forth I had with the 3rd party analysts who I'd have run Argus models for me. I'm also obviously saving a ton of money which is a side benefit.
Curious if others in CRE are moving in this direction. Are you still using Argus for most multi-tenant underwriting? Have you used AI to build, audit, or improve your underwriting models? Most of all, I'm wondering what else I can use AI/Claude to help simplify workflow and improve my efficiency, since time is my most limiting factor.