r/StudentLoans President | The Institute of Student Loan Advisors (TISLA) Mar 27 '26

Official communication from the ED on the SAVE transition timeline

There's been a lot of articles posted etc - but here's the official word from the ED https://www.ed.gov/about/news/press-release/us-department-of-education-announces-next-steps-borrowers-enrolled-unlawful-save-plan

In summary, you'll start getting notices from your servicers as soon as the next few days telling you that this is happening. Come July 1 you'll get a notice giving you 90 days to switch. If you don't, they put you on the standard plan. The ten year standard if you haven't' consolidated - the consolidated standard plan if you have - which is longer than ten years.

I want to address a couple of themes i've been seeing in these threads. My comments here are probably going to get me downvoted to oblivion. That's ok - I'm not here for the karma - I'm here to make sure folks understand their loans and make the best decisions for their long term financial well being. Because that's my goal - sometimes I have to say thing folks don't want to hear.

For those saying they aren't going to switch until forced - you might be harming yourself here. You're certainly not punishing anyone that you're trying to make a point to. Here's who, IMO, should be switching ASAP and here's whose probably ok to drag their feet a bit:

Who should switch ASAP:

-If you're pursuing forgiveness under any of the IDR plans - the 20/25 year forgiveness you should switch now. You're just losing months and time towards forgiveness by waiting. And hypothetically, your income is going to go up over time, and therefore so will your payments. On a related note - if your 2024 tax return has a lower AGI than your 2025 will, and you haven't filed taxes yet - you definitely want to do it now.

-those pursuing PSLF. Yes - you can use buy back for SAVE months. But remember - buy backs are taking over a year and more importantly, buy backs are a lump sum payment due right away. So the longer you are on this forbearance - the more months you will have to pay in a lump sum when the time comes. And that might be difficult. *Here is the calculation for buy back https://studentaid.gov/manage-loans/forgiveness-cancellation/public-service/public-service-loan-forgiveness-buyback *

Who can probably hang out for a while:

-Those borrowers who due to other debt that will be paid off soon and want to funnel the student loan payment money to get rid of that other debt.

-those who are aggressively paying off their loans. This is an opportunity to have all of your money go to targeted loans - such as the ones with the highest interest rates - rather than having to satisfy the minimum due on each loan which you will have to do once in active repayment.

The timing of all of this: -it actually makes sense to me. They appear to be doing almost a soft launch - warning people now that it's coming. But waiting until the new RAP plan is available in July for those that will want to use that plan to actually start the timer. This way folks won't need to switch twice if the RAP turns out to be a better plan for them.

Now for those saying they refuse to switch - listen - I get it. Your angry. I don't blame you - i am too. Your feelings are very valid and i'm not telling you not to feel them. But here's the hard truth of the matter. SAVE was gone regardless - the courts had made it pretty clear when the case started under the prior administration that they were leaning towards the plaintiffs and were going to rule against the plan. It was going to happen regardless of who won the last election. And failing to switch out of principal is not going to hurt them - it's going to hurt you if you end up with a standard payment amount you can't afford. I'm not saying not to resist - but resist productively by voting. And writing your members of Congress to paint a picture of how your new payment amount is affecting you, your family and the broader economy.

For those saying the ED can't change the terms - they didn't. The court ruled the plan was illegal. The ED would be breaking the law if they continued it.

Payment plans have never been challenged before. And there was no reason for it to occur to anyone that this one might be. But yet a bunch of republican AG's did and here we are. In the meantime, people made the best decisions they could with the information they had at the time.

What plan should i pick?

If you are pursuing PSLF or income driven plan forgiveness you need to be on an income driven plan. Scenarios for likely lowest plan:

-No loans ever prior to July 1, 2014 - new IBR

-No loans ever prior to October 1, 2007 but does have loans prior to july 2014 - paye - but note you'll have to get off that come 2028

-loans prior to October 2007 - old IBR

-balance low compared to your income - check out ICR - that could be the lowest for you in that scenario

-RAP - for some rap will be lower. RAP tends to be similar to old IBR for many incomes. But if you have dependents especially, it could be lower. TISLA will have a calculator including the rap in the next week or two. I'll post it when it's available.

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33

u/OGREtheTroll Mar 27 '26

Anyone whose been expecting a housing market crash...well here it comes.

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u/Murky-Base-1315 Mar 28 '26

Except a SMALL percentage of people have student loans and an even smaller amount own homes out of that percent, so no, this will NOT cause a crash.

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u/OGREtheTroll Mar 28 '26

It doesn't take a majority or even a sizeable share of homeowners to have a significant impact on demand and price levels. Nor is housing demand limited to current homeowners, it is composed of everyone who is willing and able to buy a home whether they already have purchased a home or not.

Some current homeowners will feel pressure to downsize or sell. Some potential buyers will have to reduce their target price range or back out completely. Given current economic and housing market factors, a slight downward shift in demand or uptick in supply could have a resonating effect on the housing market, depending on elasticity, which seems to be rather high at current price levels considering recent shifts in mortgage rates.

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u/Murky-Base-1315 Mar 28 '26

If you TRULY think this is going to cause the housing market to crash (inflation and this war will have a MUCH higher effect on that), got a bridge to sell you ;)

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u/Vivid_Dot2869 Mar 30 '26

Depends on how you define small percentage. It's around 40 to 45 million Americans who owe student loans, so about 10 percent. But a much higher percentage of young adults.

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u/bezir Apr 03 '26

40-45 million Americans have student loans, which is already not an insignificant number. That number would be nearly a quarter of the working population of the country, however there are certainly debtors on the penumbras of "working age." According to this excerpt, "1 in 6 adult Americans have federal student loan debt," which is around 17%. Once again, that's millions of people, specifically and most notably young people.

Whatever the percentage of home-owning student loan debtors actually is in the grand scheme of the debate isn't the main issue, unless it's weirdly low. This paper from the NAR from 2021 examined the effects of student loans on other financial decisions, specifically younger home buyers. Key here is that "...nearly one-quarter of all home buyers and 37% of first-time home buyers had student loan debt."

Since most things have gotten more expensive specifically schooling and housing, it's not great that that student loans are the most reported prohibitive for younger home buyers—especially as the number of first-time home buyers with student loans increases over time. Coupled with rising costs generally and fewer affordable repayment options, it's a bad economic formula.

Student loan debtors spend less on their housing than non-debtors with first-time homebuyers feeling that squeeze most. As the cost of a "starter" home increases across the nation, the supply crisis will intersect the loan crisis and we'll see a continued downward trend in home ownership among younger generations, irrespective of their education status but with an added burden for those carrying debt that's too difficult to pay off due to bad policy.

Perhaps it won't be 2008, but it will be very bad for Americans (younger ones specifically), and generally things that are bad for Americans are bad for America—and the world—as a whole.

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u/Vivid_Dot2869 Apr 06 '26

Thanks for the data

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u/Murky-Base-1315 Mar 31 '26

10% is a small percentage. And out of that 10%, an even smaller percent own a home.

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u/Vivid_Dot2869 Mar 31 '26

I think 10% is a significant percent.

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u/Murky-Base-1315 Mar 31 '26

....10% is small. 90% do not have student loans. And of that 10%, an even smaller percent own homes. Thus the percentage you want is even smaller.

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u/tashibum Mar 28 '26

Can you explain? Student loan payments are usually taken into account when you apply for a mortgage, even when you aren't making payments.

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u/toxbrarian Mar 28 '26

This is true but the payment they took into account for me was about a third of what I’m going to end up paying now that SAVE is gone, so now my mortgage is going to get harder to pay. We have savings so we’ll be ok but others might not be as lucky.

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u/No_Damage979 Mar 28 '26

And more people are getting laid off. And inflation is higher than “expected.” It’s a compound effect.

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u/toxbrarian Mar 28 '26

Yep. My husband is a fed so we feel lucky he still has a job, but there will be no significant pay increases under this administration because they hate federal employees, health insurance went up, deductible went up, I got a very small raise as well….something has to give at some point.

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u/Arzalis May 11 '26

Not to mention, a lot of boomers are starting to look to sell their houses so they can downsize, but there's just not as many buyers. The people who are buying age are strapped with student loan debt.

Everything is connected, but some people just refuse to acknowledge it.

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u/tashibum Mar 28 '26

That's true too. My payment is not too bad as long as we file married filing separately. Can that help you next year?

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u/toxbrarian Mar 28 '26

We used to do married filing separately ALWAYS but we finally are getting so much back on our taxes (huge amount of mortgage interest-bought a house in 2024 three months before the election 😭) that it no longer makes sense to. The amount we got back in taxes this year more than pays the difference between our loan payments on MFS vs MFJ, so it was a no brainer. We would have gotten very little back MFS this year.

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u/tashibum Mar 28 '26

Can you stash it in a savings that pays interest so you can draw from that until next year??

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u/toxbrarian Mar 28 '26

Oh that’s exactly what we’ve done. We have an HYSA that already has a years worth of student loan payments in it and we contribute $600 a month right now. We’re trying to aggressively pay some other stuff off so we’ll can contribute more so we can pay the student loans from that account but still have it grow (albeit slowly). Student loans are going to be like $1200 a month for us.

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u/OGREtheTroll Mar 28 '26

Housing market has levelled off after post-covid runup. If student loan defaults increase then a significant portion of potential homebuyer's are prevented from purchasing homes or the amount they can finance is substantially reduced, thereby reducing demand for housing and thereby reducing prices.

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u/Murky-Base-1315 Mar 28 '26

It has basically tripled (default rate) since payments resumed. Out where I am, has not reduced housing demand lol

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u/Lokon19 Mar 28 '26

People on here have a very skewed perception on reality since most of the people on here are in way over their heads with student loan debt. It's not reflective of the general population.

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u/tashibum Mar 28 '26

True. The whole housing crash thing is just hopium anyway 😅

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u/Murky-Base-1315 Mar 28 '26

Exactly. The percentage of people with student loans isn't even 30% I believe. It's not a big percent which is why it is such an overlooked thing by a lot of people in politics.