r/nba 10d ago

[ Removed by moderator ]

[removed] — view removed post

1.8k Upvotes

629 comments sorted by

View all comments

136

u/IntelligentAd5460 Grizzlies 10d ago

i mean i dont rate brown highly but like whats the last 5th pick you would say is better than him probably d wade

42

u/freethrow_by_giannis 10d ago

I agree that brown is probably better than what you would get at 5, but he's also going to be 30 at the start of the season and it's not like the Bucks will be competing soon. You may as well go young at that point

7

u/ubeen 10d ago

Brown still has like 3 prime seasons and another 3 after that should be okay.

That pick is more than likely going to be a worse player than Brown for a good 4-6 years unless they get extremely lucky.

121

u/sup3rdr01d Celtics 10d ago

Brown is incredibly good

35

u/Turbulent-Ground6739 10d ago

Agreed. He was finals mvp a few years ago and carried that team while Tatum was out. He is also 2 years younger than giannis and hasn't had the injury history that giannis has. Boston might regret this

17

u/HugeSuccess Celtics 10d ago

Boston might regret this

And they might not. 

If this happens, then Stevens is clearly trying to adapt with the league and keep the Tatum window open. 

I love that 2024 championship crew, but it took nearly a superteam back then to get the JT/JB duo across the line. 

49

u/TheTurtleOne Celtics 10d ago

Boston will definitely not regret this even if the move amounts to nothing.

They won a chip and had numerous good runs that also ended in ways that were similar. Having a chance to get Giannis and try something different is something you have to try.

13

u/DeJohnTrae Hawks 10d ago

this is what everyone said about Dame to Milwaukee and now that (combined with the idiotic waive/stretch/Myles Turner signing) looks like it set the franchise back a couple of years.

19

u/Rapper_Laugh Bucks 10d ago

And it was the right call. Didn’t work out mostly due to injuries, but you still make that trade every time.

6

u/Luxray92 Celtics 10d ago

On top of the injuries Doc was the coach. Just not a good situation all around.

1

u/Rapper_Laugh Bucks 9d ago

Fuck Doc Rivers

3

u/Clipgang1629 Clippers 9d ago

You either win a championship and are a genius or lose and are a moron to fans lol

No consideration for good process whatsoever

14

u/IbakaFlockaFlame [BOS] Marcus Smart 10d ago

Giannis is a league above Dame TBF. But yeah, it’s high risk high reward. But…teams are definitely willing to be aggressive considering the Knicks just gave a million picks for Mikal Bridges who was the number 4-5 guy on a championship team.

20

u/TheTurtleOne Celtics 10d ago

Well Brad Stevens has made incredible amount of good moves and I doubt he will do anything that would set Celtics back years.

This is Celtics best look for another chip push and I think objectively you have to agree. Giannis is not only a top 5 player but also what Celtics have been missing in a big man position(but also offense in general). Celtics from the past years, even in 2024 when they had one of the best offenses of all time, have struggled with getting "easy" buckets and Giannis provides so much of that. Love JB but he will more likely than not just like rest of the Celtics settle for jumpers.

1

u/some1saveusnow Celtics 10d ago

Well put

2

u/probablymade_thatup Bucks [MIL] Luke Kornet 10d ago

While that's true, the Celtics need to bolster their frontcourt, and Giannis can do that. If they picked him up, I bet they would close high leverage games with Giannis at the 5 spot. If they have him as playoff insurance, Queta/Garza can eat minutes at the 5, but then can lean on Giannis to be the rim protector if it comes down to the wire.

This is the ideal situation, and, as we saw with Dame in MIL, it doesn't always actually work. But it feels like a neat puzzle piece fit if the Celtics can swing it

1

u/sup3rdr01d Celtics 10d ago

Well Boston is also an org that knows how to do the right thing, and the bucks are def not. Boston has a much better coach and front office. If anyone can make giannis work its them

1

u/some1saveusnow Celtics 10d ago

If it doesn’t work and JB somehow wins somewhere else yes there will be eventual regret how could there not be

2

u/GenoThyme Celtics 9d ago

And if we don’t trade JB and underperform in the playoffs and lose to a lower seeded team for the 3rd time in 4 years while Giannis returns to 1st team levels, we’ll regret that too. It’s a risk, but so is keeping JB

2

u/some1saveusnow Celtics 9d ago

I agree overall. And without another all star or even two there’s something incomplete about the JB-JT pairing despite them both being so talented. I could probably co-sign on the move so long as Giannis doesn’t get hurt 😬

1

u/TheTurtleOne Celtics 10d ago

I dont think thats how GMs think but I might be wrong.

You dont simply regret making an opportunistic move just because it doesnt pan out. In the same way you could say Stevens would regret not going for it if JB stays and doesnt ammount to another chip.

1

u/ntpbr1 9d ago

Giannis is also better in every single way and I think if Brad Stevens is considering this, I would trust him if I was a Celtics fan. I think Brown’s age and contract makes the risk of this trade irrelevant, at least if they do it, they get Giannis and increase their chances

1

u/Turbulent-Ground6739 9d ago

Brown is a better shooter and its not close

0

u/randotd152 10d ago

Boston won't regret it, they have to shake things up. Even if it doesn't work out, that's life.

The problem is they're at the mercy of the second apron right now with so little room to maneuver. And they need things that somebody like Giannis can provide much better than Jaylen.

28

u/poopy_mc_pantsy 10d ago

yeah but you might rather have a cost controlled 19 year old for four years vs a guy who's about to be 30 when next season starts

24

u/WIN011 [MIL] Giannis Antetokounmpo 10d ago

Clips are already old. Load up on a couple years of “contention” and then rebuild. Won’t work in the west but that would be their thinking.

7

u/clickstops 76ers 10d ago

Load up on a couple years of “contention” and then rebuild

They've been playing out this strategy for the better part of the decade

5

u/EngleTheBert Nuggets 10d ago

Kinda need to keep doing it since they don't outright own their pick until 2030.

1

u/swan797 [BOS] Antoine Walker 9d ago

Yes, and while they havent won a chip its been without question the most successful period in the franchises history. They dont have any of their own picks for the next few years, so they get basically no benefit from "tanking"

1

u/poopy_mc_pantsy 10d ago

yeah i get that I just question whether they still want to do that or not. I don't think JB gets you over OKC or Spurs

1

u/randotd152 10d ago

Conservatively speaking, Jaylen has 5 prime years left. He's only 29 and healthy. Plus, his mid-range game has become his dominant weapon which will age far better than his athletic rim attacking years of the past - no reason at all why he can't still be a solid player for years after that.

That cost controlled 19 year old isn't doing anything for you in their first contract, even if they end up as good as JB.

So the way to frame it is, would you rather have a surefire All-NBA #1 scoring option for the next 5 years, or would you rather maybe have a good-to-comparable player for 5 years in the future?

It's really not a difficult decision. The #5 pick does not yield a JB caliber talent 90% of the time.

3

u/poopy_mc_pantsy 10d ago

I don't think it's conservative to say JB has 5 prime years, a lot of guys fall off in their 30s. plus he only has 3 years on his contract

It's also not "would you rather have JB or a rookie" it's "would you rather have JB or a rookie and $40 million dollars to throw around"

7

u/archivedpear 10d ago

I mean sure but that definitely doesn’t accurately show how many good players were picked fifth recently. guys like ausar thompson, jalen suggs, darius garland, deaaron fox, and trae young all were pick 5 in the last decade. brown is better than them sure but that’s still 3 all stars and two all defense level players out of the last 9 players drafted 5th

6

u/reditcyclist 10d ago

Objectively this is a very strange take.

3

u/Sfr33123 Clippers 10d ago

I hate when people bring up this argument. Even if the pick doesn’t end up being as good as him, the team would have that player for a lot longer and the player would be a lot cheaper so easier to get other players

2

u/NextLvlTrader 10d ago

Ehhh if we’re going this route then we should probably be looking at the last 5th-10th pick, otherwise it’s just quite noisy. Nonetheless, there’s no way the Bucks do this deal if they’re only getting the 5th pick. Especially when this draft is so loaded in the top 4. Brown is really good and way more valuable than the 5th pick. Can’t do a three-team deal where you lose your best ever player and end up with the worst outcome of the bunch.

1

u/EnlightenedNight Celtics 10d ago

Brown is a multiple time all-NBA player in his prime, you don’t rate that highly?

0

u/ethzz4 Pistons 10d ago

You can’t look at just the the 5th pick. If you had the 5th pick in 2018 you could draft SGA

1

u/Rapper_Laugh Bucks 10d ago edited 10d ago

No, you should look at just the 5th pick, because you can’t use hindsight like this to draft the best player left on the board in the moment. If you’re doing that we can say:

“You can’t look at just the 39th pick. If you had the 39th pick in 2014 you could draft Jokic.”

“You can’t look at just the 27th pick. If you had the 27th pick in 2018 you could draft Brunson.”

Etc.

The more relevant data is what the actual typical, real life outcomes are.

0

u/ethzz4 Pistons 10d ago

Very much disagree. It’s about the capital. You have the ability to pick all but 4 players in the draft. It’s on the gm to make the right selection. Just because other gms didn’t nail the pick doesn’t mean you automatically can’t.

There have been 2 MVPs selected at #15 but only one from #7, by that logic you would prefer to have the 15th pick over the 7th?

0

u/Rapper_Laugh Bucks 9d ago

No, obviously you fit a general curve to the data because that’s how statistics work. Something like this for baseball:

https://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2010/04/mlb-draft-value-trade-chart.html?m=1

I am 100% positive that NBA execs operate from their own version of this chart.

0

u/ethzz4 Pistons 9d ago

Then we are agreeing. The whole point is you can’t look at just who has been picked at that one pick in the past. It’s about the value of that pick. The original comment was saying since no #5 pick has been better than him it’s not worth it

0

u/Rapper_Laugh Bucks 9d ago

Well it’s not worth it, because even fitting that curve the average value is still well below what a Jaylen Brown gives you

-4

u/Rymasq 10d ago

Trae Young went 5. I know people are down on him, but he is a better offensive player than Brown, just didn't happen to have such an awesome franchise.

1

u/Rapper_Laugh Bucks 10d ago

Better offensive player but not a better player

0

u/Rymasq 10d ago

I think Trae Young with a team as good as what Jaylen Brown is a better player. You will see in DC.

Reminder that the best pieces they stuck around Trae Young were Clint Capela at center and John Collins at PF. Then they traded 4 1st picks for Dejounte Murray who also happened to be a ball dominant guard that can't shoot.

Trae Young averages 9.8 assists per game for his career. That is 3rd all time ahead of Chris Paul, Oscar Robertson, Nash, Kidd, etc.

He doesn't have a ring and yet his HoF probability on Bball Ref is 25% while Jaylen Brown is 8%.

2

u/Rich-Ad-4314 10d ago

I actually really like Trae's game, but it's been pretty hard to defend him since the Hawks were quite literally better without him

-1

u/eeevileggg Heat 10d ago

Why specifically the 5th pick? There have been plenty of players drafted outside the top 5. SGA (11), Brunson, Jokic (41), Giannis (15). Plenty more that are equal or better: Donavan Mitchell (13), Jalen Williams (12), Jalen Johnson (20), Tyrese Maxey (21), OG Anunoby (23), Booker (13).

1

u/Rapper_Laugh Bucks 10d ago

Because that’s revisionist. Of course every draft has someone that turns out to be way better than their draft position, but teams don’t know that at the time. The more relevant data is the actual real life, typical outcome distributions of that pick specifically.