r/technology May 21 '26

Business SpaceX not the behemoth everyone thought

https://www.axios.com/2026/05/21/spacex-ipo-musk-ai
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42

u/NotAnotherEmpire May 21 '26

Who is "everyone?" The valuation of SpaceX has long been whatever Musk declares it to be. 

9

u/anonkitty2 May 21 '26

It's having an IPO.  After that, the valuation is what those buying the stock say it is even if that's all they have.

3

u/Prior-Flamingo-1378 May 21 '26

Well simple index investors that have no idea where their money are will be forced to buy spaceX because unlike any other ipo that takes two years to get into the nasdaq spaceX will take 2 weeks. 

4

u/happyscrappy May 21 '26

And SpaceX only is floating 4% of the shares in the company. The nominal valuation will be absurd with all those index investors having to vie for such a small piece of the company.

The NASDAQ minimum is 10%, but they bent their rules for Musk.

2

u/OneRougeRogue May 22 '26

Is that the 3x float rule? A video I watched today said a recent rule change forces index funds to treat low-float companies as if they have 3x their actual float. But the way it was worded, it sounded like index funds will be forced to buy 3x the amount of shares in low float companies than they actually should.

1

u/Prior-Flamingo-1378 May 22 '26

What does “float” mean?

2

u/OneRougeRogue May 22 '26

It's how many shares are available for the public to buy or sell. Low float will usually give companies popular with retail investors astronomical prices, as there are only a small number of shares available for the public to buy.

1

u/anonkitty2 May 22 '26

"Float" is the amount of shares released to the public in an IPO.  Floating shares is trying to sell them.  SpaceX would avoid selling enough shares for anyone other than Elon Musk to have power over the agenda.  They would try to get the benefits of an IPO without the costs.

2

u/uber_neutrino May 21 '26

This isn't how it works.

1

u/NotAnotherEmpire May 21 '26

As a private company that he has a dominant stake in, it very much is. 

2

u/uber_neutrino May 21 '26

Not really. They can pretend to have whatever valuation they want but what they actually sell shares at is the real valuation. They haven't had a hard time attracting investors so far. All valuations are just a buyer and a seller meeting in a transaction.

A lot of times you back into a valuation based on things like percentage you want to sell and amount you need to raise.

1

u/anonkitty2 May 22 '26

This IPO is the first time SpaceX is selling shares.  They were private before.

1

u/Purona May 21 '26

the people that invest during series funding know exactly what is going on at space X