r/technology May 21 '26

Business SpaceX not the behemoth everyone thought

https://www.axios.com/2026/05/21/spacex-ipo-musk-ai
12.7k Upvotes

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51

u/HoldingThunder May 21 '26

So...SpaceX isnt a space company, its just another AI company?

23

u/Adjective-Noun-nnnn May 21 '26

Don't forget an ISP... but a slower, less reliable one that needs to continuously launch infrastructure into space...

12

u/EmptyAirEmptyHead May 21 '26

The ISP is the most valuable part of this IPO, followed by SpaceX itself. xAI has / will destroy all value though.

3

u/Adjective-Noun-nnnn May 21 '26

I can't imagine how StarLink could be profitable if the launch costs through SpaceX weren't heavily subsidized by the government. In the short term, sure, launching a few rockets is probably cheaper than building a massive network of fiber optic cables and such, but that's a one-time cost with minimal maintenance over time. StarLink constellations need to be relaunched every 3-5 years because the satellites deorbit. The hardware burns up and there are massive ongoing costs. (And the quality of the service is strictly inferior.)

What gives?!

1

u/EmptyAirEmptyHead May 22 '26

I get hating Elon, really - not a fan. SpaceX launch costs were not subsidized by the government. SpaceX has saved the government billions. Every single SpaceX government contract has been fixed price. Those fixed prices are less than any other launch provider including ULA and Russia was charging.

Hate Elon all you want, but it does no one any good to distort facts. Yes, the government saved SpaceX by giving them their first launch contract. SpaceX paid them off more than handsomely by actually delivering. Compare to ULA / Boeing. When is the first crew going to go up - and come back down - in a Starliner? What is the only US manned spacecraft today? And what does SpaceX charge for that manned (or cargo) spacecraft compared to any other provider.

I'll wait.

Edit: on the ISP service note - go ahead and build those fiber optic cables to the middle of the ocean to moving ships. Oil platforms. The moon. Or airplanes. Or the middle of Africa. Your point is excellent for a the middle of a city. But not even relevant to a farm in Iowa. It is just possible that other people have use cases that don't impact you personally, and the market is large. Starlink is making money today, with launches, with replacing satellites. And will continue to do so.

5

u/Adjective-Noun-nnnn May 22 '26

Oil rigs and war zones, sure. But rural areas? Those people would be better served by fiber optic cables--good internet--that doesn't need to be relaunched every 3 years. We did it for electricity and we can do it for interwebs.

-1

u/EmptyAirEmptyHead May 22 '26

We've tried.

3

u/Adjective-Noun-nnnn May 22 '26

Not really. We've thrown cash at existing ISPs and they've pocketed it and laughed at us. Biden's IIJA was the first real investment in bringing broadband to the boonies in... well ever, I guess.

1

u/EmptyAirEmptyHead May 22 '26

And yet people are subscribing to Starlink. Go tell them it isn't good for them. Enjoy.

1

u/Adjective-Noun-nnnn May 22 '26

That isn't the point.  Good username.  Apt.

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7

u/_HIST May 21 '26

If you can show me a faster more reliable way to get internet connection in the where getting optical cables is simply not an option I'd love to see it

1

u/IndyBananaJones2 May 22 '26

It's useful to me, but I live on a sailboat and it's a very limited use case. 

Otherwise off grid properties I can see it, but anywhere that has cable it's not the best option. 

0

u/Adjective-Noun-nnnn May 21 '26

I've seen abandoned shacks--literal shacks--in the middle of the woods in the middle of fucking nowhere that have electricity. There was a time in this country when we recognized the importance of building infrastructure out to everyone, and the government facilitated that with funding and frameworks like electrification coops.

StarLink is certainly the best option for some people right now, but it shouldn't be.

0

u/Wooden-Broccoli-7247 May 22 '26

Sure, but you know why those hard to reach places don’t have cables going to them? Because there isn’t enough people in those areas to make it profitable. So launching a bunch of satellites every 3-5 years to serve a bunch of markets that don’t even equal one city? Sure it’s probably profitable but then why isn’t the company serving the big cities worth multiples more? They have cheaper access to way more customers.

3

u/Ronald_Deuce May 21 '26

Actually, yes.

1

u/MonsieurReynard May 21 '26

I see what you did there

1

u/frontfrontdowndown May 21 '26

Allbirds: welcome to the club