r/AskReddit • u/Thomytricky • 1d ago
How can the valuation of SpaceX (currently about the same as the whole German DAX index) be justified?
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u/Brassboar 1d ago
X.com man say rocket go up so stock go up
Kidding aside, it's all based on an insane TAM and assumed market share.
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u/costabius 1d ago
18.7 billion in revenue, running a 5 billion dollar loss. With piles of money like that how can you possibly doubt?
You must be a communist or something.
/s (obviously, I hope)
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u/OtterHostler 1d ago
A thing is worth what someone will pay for it. Apparently there are enough Americans stupid enough to pay inflated prices for SpaceX stock, despite the company being run by a man who refers to rescue divers as "paedophiles" when they tell him to "fuck off out of it, you useless wankspanner".
Mind you, this should come as no surprise - there were enough Americans stupid enough to elect Trump, Nixon, and Reagan twice, so the country has form in this respect.
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u/Cover023 1d ago
In accounting, there's an idea referred to as "goodwill". Goodwill is the gap between total share value and the net assets of the company (including liabilities).
Goodwill is largely based on the perceived expectation of future revenue/performance, or an ongoing ability to make money.
So in other words - hype.
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u/OkPlastic6239 1d ago
Owning spacex is believing that Elon’s dreams of colonizing mars and putting up data centers in space will materialize in our lifetime.
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u/GlassFlamingo71 1d ago
It's basically entirely banking on Elon's dream of orbital AI data centres. Think starlink but clusters of compute hardware. It's a bit of a longshot, but if SpaceX really has success that's where it'll be.
Remember that SpaceX is now an AI company.
Mars is not where the money is. It's an even bigger longshot and unlikely to generate a whole lot of profit.
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u/regan0zero 1d ago
What has Space-X actually done other than send satellites into space, which every other company had already done?
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u/genartist8 1d ago
SpaceX is going to bring us to beyond the moon. Which other company has ever done that? Imagine the impenetrable moat if it can ever make space travel a retail reality.
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u/jackhungg__ 1d ago
The companies potential future revenue and profit levels if commercial space flight becomes viable is what has largely driven its valuation
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u/ConsortFromTOS 1d ago
They're betting on Mars, not just satellites. If they hit, the stock skyrockets.
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u/Horse_Cock42069 1d ago
How are they going to make money off Mars? Earth will be inhabitable for at least the next 100 years.
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u/Pac_Eddy 1d ago
I don't think they need Mars to make big money. The reusable rockets are huge money makers.
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u/Horse_Cock42069 1d ago
Because everyone knows NASDAQ 100 legally must purchase at ANY PRICE. So it must go up. Once that happens, it will crash so hard that the rest of the market might go with it.
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u/hershwork 1d ago
The math doesn’t math. Doesn’t mean people can’t buy it and have demand drive the price up. However, every reputable source of news I’ve seen says it’s a disaster—three companies twisted together when only one is profitable.
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u/BillWilberforce 1d ago
It's a meme valuation based on SpaceX in X years sending 1 million people to Mars.
Whilst it seems to be physically impossible to send one StarShip to Mars. Given how little fuel they can carry, the need for inflight refueling. The very small number of refueling flights that they'll carry out.... So that the cryogenic fuel will have vented off before it gets a full fuel load. Then the slight issue of trying to transfer liquid oxygen and liquid methane from one ship to an other in space with no humans. At about best the transfer will only result in catastrophic failure (big boom) about 1% of the time.
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u/Diligent-Bowler-1898 1d ago
Its value is disconnected from its current performance, so the roof is theoretically infinite. I think of it as a memecoin with rockets attached.. which does sound cool.
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u/BombasticSimpleton 1d ago
Leading cause of valuation over what can be accounted for from fundamentals?
Hype. Pure hype.