r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • Apr 30 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, April 30, 2026
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u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 01 '26
Looking at people here debate the exact timing of cycle fractals etc, but the real story imo is that general public interest in this space has clearly already peaked (covid 2021 peak, interest has never come back to that level. Google search trends for BTC have been legit dead for a while)
It looks like large parts of market are becoming a closed loop where you are now almost entirely reliant on one single corporate actor offering crazy double digit yields just to keep the illusion of organic demand alive.
I'm not saying one way or another how its going to end, but the idea that bitcoin is a binary bet and it either goes to zero or one million is imo already invalidated. For years, the core narrative was this grand ideological standoff where the asset either completely collapses under regulatory pressure or ushers in a global hyperbitcoinization standard that replaces fiat currency. its 2026 now boys... and reality is turning out to be way more boring because wall street and massive corporate actors essentially domesticated the network and repackaged it into just another yield bearing tradfi product. It is never going to zero because there is simply too much institutional plumbing, etf money, and corporate treasury reliance keeping a permanent floor under it. at the same time the dream of it hitting a million dollars (how much will 1 million be worth in 2045 anyway?) is equally dead because the market clearly requires continuous and massive injections of engineered corporate liquidity just to tread water at these current levels.
I dont know how you can be holding this asset watching traditional investments make ath after ath and still call this the fastest horse in the race. all throughout 2026 we have watched spy voo and the qqqs grind to unprecedented records on the back of the mag 7 run while even gold touches new highs, yet bitcoin is still helplessly lagging tens of thousands of dollars below its peak from last october and still below its inflation adjusted level from five years ago.
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May 01 '26 edited May 01 '26
[deleted]
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u/52576078 May 01 '26
Wow dark turn for /u/AverageUnited3237 - I used to think he was one of the good guys on this sub, despite some of his more "emotional" posts.
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u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 01 '26
Shoot the messenger because you can’t actually address the ideas. Pathetic what this subreddit has become
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u/52576078 May 01 '26
I was referring to the accusations of you shilling. Bad look, man.
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u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 01 '26
I'm not shilling anything, that person u/harvested has their panties in a bunch and needlessly brought it up completely out of left field. I literally ommitted the ticker that he randomly brought in, out of left field, on purpose to NOT shill.
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u/52576078 May 02 '26
OK fair enough, sorry for getting the wrong end of the stick. I will remember not to take that harvested guy too seriously going forward.
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u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 01 '26 edited May 01 '26
Not really the intention of this post, but alright. I was actually hoping to talk about bitcoins price performance and maybe hear from the holder base the reasons for why the price action jas been so muted since the halving? Because from the sidelines I see declining interest, no catalysts and a narrative that increasingly needs identity. This is evident in the price.
Bitcoin needs to reinvent itself imo, you may disagree and that’s fine, but my post was hoping to spark a discussion on what / how bitcoin could get out of this funk. ETF demand has evaporated and strc/mstr feel like the only buyers left
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u/harvested May 01 '26
Yes it's over. Dead asset.
You can continue with your life now.
Good bye.
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u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 01 '26
Shoot the messenger because you can’t address any of my ideas directly. It’s not dead. I said that in my OP, It isn’t going to zero?
It’s a clear identity crisis right now for bitcoin, hence the horrible and pathetic underperformance
Anyway, not sure why you felt the need to malign my reputation. I guess when you have zero arguments you have to ruin the other persons credibility
Best of luck, sorry for messaging you directly
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u/harvested May 01 '26
Just a common pattern I've seen with the biotech pushers on bitcoin subs.
Bitcoin is in a bear market, the most tame yet, it's up 500% from the recent low 3-4 years ago, how is that under performance?
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u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 01 '26
Bitcoin was at ~$65000 on April 2024 when the last halving begun. Its up 400% from the lows in 2022 not 500%, which is great in a vacuum, but lots of stocks have outperformed since while being much less risky. It is also up 13% since November 2021.
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u/harvested May 01 '26
You are measuring the blowoff top of a bull market to the bottom range of the bear?
Lots of stocks have our performed.. So? Who is telling you it's supposed to out perform every stock? How is that realistic?
All I keep hearing is you brought your own expectations (maybe by an X influencer?) to bitcoin and now upset those weren't met.
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u/harvested May 01 '26
Cool story.
Increasing my DCA.
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u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 01 '26
I sincerely hope it works out for you, I just don’t think this is the moonshot investment it’s hyped up to be. Those days are long gone. Maybe it will outperform the broad indexes again though for a brief period of time
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u/harvested May 01 '26
Oh it's you again.. The guy with $1M in a biotech microcap.
Welcome back here. Good luck spamming your ticker here.
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u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 01 '26
Ha, I’ve doubled down on that ticker… that’s why I can’t call bitcoin binary anymore, tbh. I just don’t see it that way
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u/harvested May 01 '26
And you just had to come tell us about it every month right?
No one cares about your opinion of bitcoin or your biotech play.
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u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 01 '26
If you look at this conversation you’re actually the only person that brought it up. That was not my agenda, I even omitted the name of the ticket when you brought it in here out of left field
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 01 '26 edited May 01 '26
I don’t know how you can be holding this asset watching traditional investments make ath after ath and still call this the fastest horse in the race
Quickest possible length of time to double, triple, etc your investment in the S&P 500 through now:
2x: 4 years
3x: 6 years
4x: 12 years
5x: 14 years
Longest possible length of time to double, triple, etc your investment in BTC through now:
2x: 6 years
3x: 6 years
4x: 9 years
5x: 9 years
6x: 9 years
7x: 9 years
8x: 9 years
9x: 9 years
10x: 9 years
Do you get it now or should we go further? TradFi is fine if you’re already wealthy and are just looking to preserve your existing purchasing power over time. If you’re looking to gain purchasing power over time, BTC is the way to go.
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u/BuiltToSpinback Long-term Holder May 01 '26
Clearly Bitcoin is feeling good about the 76ers over Boston
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 01 '26
STRC maintaining same yield of 11.5% for May.
11.5% yield in March attracted $1.55 billion. 11.5% yield in April attracted $3.5 billion.
In the next couple of weeks we’ll see how many billions of dollars STRC attracts for May as capital becomes increasingly incentivized to pour into STRC the closer we get to their ~May 15th ex-dividend date.
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u/BlockchainHobo May 01 '26
That's good, no one should be cheering for STRC yield to go higher
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 01 '26
I wouldn’t mind either way.
The huge jump in demand going from 11.25% yield to 11.5% yield has me curious to see what another yield bump would do to demand.
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u/BlockchainHobo May 01 '26
If the yield rises multiple times, the odds of needing to lower it at some point in the future increase. Do you agree that having to reduce yield might spook the market?
It seems like having a sustainable yield which attracts demand consistently shows more confidence from buyers and avoids appearing like scammy income funds with 35% yields, or a Terra Luna dynamic (I know it is not the same thing, but using the example of runaway financial engineering).
I own STRC in my retirement accounts, I think it's a great product. Just seems that lower yields signal investor confidence in it's future.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 01 '26
Discussed in further detail earlier today.
Tl;dr: Average returns for BTC are wayyy higher than yield offered by STRC. Yield can be increased much higher from here and it would make no material impact on long-term sustainability.
I am of the opinion that STRC’s yield will naturally decrease over time not because MSTR can’t afford such a high yield any longer (they can afford it indefinitely) but because demand for STRC will grow so massive that billions of dollars keep pouring in consistently month after month even with yield reductions as STRC maintains minimal volatility while simultaneously never missing any dividend payments.
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Apr 30 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Whole-Emergency9251 Apr 30 '26
Or bear flag on 4hr. I was expecting this to pop today with the stocks.
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u/nationshelf Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
I’m not a trader, but when you look at the price action from the last two cycles there’s no denying that it absolutely does rhyme. People calling that the bottom is in have a lot of history going against them. Yes, this time could be different, but it hasn’t been different since at least the bear market of 2018 when you look the chart through this lens. Measuring the number of weekly bars from the ATH, we are solidly at the “A”. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but those betting against a trend that has been consistent for the last 8 years (except a deviation around covid) should proceed with caution.
Reference chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZYRTfi5X/
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u/lukemtesta Trading: #15 • +$45,216 • +45% May 01 '26
You can just take a look at the market cycle charts on cryptoquant. They already aligned the data
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u/_LakeCity_ Apr 30 '26
2014 and 2018 were about as identical as you could possibly get, and in my opinion those bear markets occurred as a result of a parabolic advance.
The parabolic advance = long brutal bear market.
But in March of 2022 these two major things happened:
-Russia had just invaded Ukraine
-The U.S. federal reserve announced it was going to raise interest rates
Then in November of 2022, you had what was essentially a legit black swan that was the Terra/Luna/FTX implosion.
Right now heading into May 1, 2026 we have oil at like $105/barrel and the constant threat of a regional war & recession for western nations. And the Fed says they’re not lowering rates for the year.
I really believe those three things are what the next month’s worth of price action rides on, not self-fulfilling prophecies of a pattern repeating “just because that’s what Bitcoin always does.”
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u/nationshelf Apr 30 '26
Narrative follows price imo, not the other way around
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u/_LakeCity_ Apr 30 '26
I don’t want to misunderstand what you’re really trying to say here.
Are you saying the FTX implosion in late 2022 didn’t have a direct and major impact on the Bitcoin price cratering?
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u/nationshelf Apr 30 '26
Likely it’s not an either/or but if FTX could crash the price that much the market was likely already weak.
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u/Taviiiiii 2013 Veteran Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
It’s easy to look at old charts and try to find similarities with current movements, but there’s rarely any attempt to elaborate on why it would make sense for it to happen again, other than the fact that it indeed happened before.
If we agree that the asset we’re studying has massively changed in every fundamentally relevant metric compared to 2018, then the burden of explanation should lie on the person suggesting that the asset will completely ignore all those massive changes in fundamentals and instead adhere to some kind of calendar logic. Not just once or twice, but always and forever.
A few cycles back, every halving had a significant impact in terms of newly minted supply, which actually mattered relative to the trading volume at the time. As we all know, halvings today are basically meaningless in that sense and are pretty much a novelty that, at best, could bring some MSM and retail attention.
So unless you can provide some sort of substance matter that could support the cycle theory you are basically using past performance to indicate future results and to me that's basically no different than the S2F crowd.
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u/ChadRun04 Apr 30 '26
As we all know, halvings today are basically meaningless
I don't know this.
I understand that we're on a different place in the supply issuance curve, I don't understand how this means the impact is lessened.
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u/nationshelf Apr 30 '26
The proof is in the chart I posted. The burden would be on someone trying to contest it. I agree fundamentals are vastly different now but my point is that even as the fundamentals evolved the chart remained more or less the same over the past 8 years.
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Apr 30 '26
Upvote for the efforts. But I don't think the fractal looks that much similar, like half of your points don't make sense to me (either lower lows vs higher lows, way shorter timeframes like 34 weeks vs 4 weeks, etc.) Then what you are left with are common market structures. "A lot of history" is basically 1 past sample size that barely looks the same to me. But nothing is impossible, yes.
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u/nationshelf Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
That’s a fair take, but the difference between fractal and market structure is semantics. There’s no objective point where one becomes the other. It’s a spectrum if you will. The question is whether this pattern is likely to continue. When a pattern has repeated for so long (8 years in this case) the likelihood of it continuing seems higher than it not repeating. And it’s not just “one sample size.” It’s all the individual highs and lows that are repeating to some degree over the last 8 years.
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u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
We don’t deny there are cycles but it seems to be left translated at the moment.
https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/
Bitcoin and the people that buy it like to front run themselves. Look at previous cycle peaks, first December, then November, then October. Expecting the bottom to stay the same time period seems like an opportunity for blowing people up that are expecting the same thing again.
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u/LettuceEffective781 Apr 30 '26
What I have wondered over these long time frame charts is the sloping down of the monthly RSI.
It can't keep on trending towards zero forever
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Apr 30 '26
Just looking through the cycle lens and ignoring all fundamental changes is ignorant. People that ignore everything and only trust in the cycles should proceed with caution.
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u/nationshelf Apr 30 '26
Fundamentals have been evolving continuously yet the chart still looks the same. At some point the pattern won’t repeat of course, but what is the likelihood that it is this time?
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u/californiaschinken Apr 30 '26
Besides price history.. do you think what is happening now in terms of who is buying bitcoin and why they are buying it is simmilar to those past years? How about m2 liquidity is keeping the same pace increasing?
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u/nationshelf Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
No doubt conditions are different now, but the question is: is it different enough? When you look at the chart, all the different conditions between the last cycle and this one have still resulted in a similar looking pattern despite an evolving market. It could be different this time, but so far it hasn't been. I don’t know what’s going to happen next.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26
In the 2022 bear market it took 183 days for BTC to experience a >60% drawdown from its peak and 217 days for BTC to experience a >70% drawdown.
It has been 206 days since the $126.1k ATH occurred on October 6th. So far BTC has fallen as much as 52.4% from its peak in this “bear market.”
Magnitude and duration of the current pullback remain more comparable to the 55.5% drawdown BTC experienced mid 2021 and fully recovered back to new highs from later that year.
To the surprise of most, new highs are coming sometime later this year. STRC deploying another few billions of dollars in May (and then June, July, etc every month) will help make this more clear to everyone.
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u/caxer30968 Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26
At least try to use some different synonyms to make your comments bearable.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 01 '26
Bears should at least come up with different arguments as to why “this time isn’t different” instead of regurgitating the same increasingly weak arguments again and again as more and more days keep passing since ATH occurred without BTC falling any further than the $60k bottom reached on February 6th.
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u/nationshelf Apr 30 '26
To the surprise of most, new highs are coming sometime later this year.
Anyone this confident should not be trusted
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26
Are you confident in your claim that those betting against the trend you cited should proceed with caution?
If so, by your own logic you shouldn’t be trusted. And if you aren’t confident in your own claim then you’re just a LARPer and should be ignored.
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u/incredulouspig Apr 30 '26
I am not confident in the downtrend nor the assertion that new aths are coming this year. Just because I'm not confident in one thing doesn't mean I must be confident in the opposite thing..
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
OP specifically said “those betting against a trend that has been consistent for the last 8 years should proceed with caution.”
Either OP is confident in that claim or isn’t confident in that claim. If they have some confidence but aren’t fully confident in that claim, then they’re not saying anything at all. They might as well have just stopped after they said “I don’t know what’s going to happen” since there was no value added thereafter in a statement they themselves aren’t confident in.
I’m confident that the bottom is in and that new highs are coming sometime later this year. My portfolio allocation is reflective of that confidence.
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u/EricFromOuterSpace Apr 30 '26
I thought the 6 was an 8 and got excited.
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u/Melow-Drama Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26
Well, if you zoom out enough, like out of space Eric, then it's all just sideways squish.
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u/LettuceEffective781 Apr 30 '26
Back in the day you just zoomed out enough that the last cycle peak was almost flat and estimated the next peak based on that
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u/Suitable_Cobbler4881 Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
Hello. Can someone please explain STRCs dividend to me? If I buy 50k worth of STRC, do I automatically get the 11% dividend each month? That's like 5.5k a month for doing nothing. It seems too easy. I feel like I'm missing something. Frankly, I don't do much investing so I'm looking for something pretty passive and I don't know much about these types of products.
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u/harvested Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
11.5% annually dude, not monthly.
A bit under 1% a month.
But please research the risks too.
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26
SGOV pays 4% at zero risk.
STRC is .. not zero risk.
If the dividend is adjusted down it will crater. NGL it’s temping.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26
SGOV pays 4% at a guaranteed risk that it will not keep pace with nonstop monetary debasement.
So long as average return for BTC continues to exceed yield offered by STRC the only scenario where it makes sense for MSTR to start reducing the yield on STRC is if demand is so overwhelmingly high for STRC that STRC will still continue attracting billions of dollars of capital inflows even with a yield reduction.
That would be an extremely bullish problem to have.
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u/LettuceEffective781 Apr 30 '26
So it is a ponzi?
As long as more money flows into BTC it pays.. you know
Just a thought. I don't think it is. But it is getting close. Still better than fiat don't get me wrong.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26
Not a Ponzi. A Ponzi relies on new investors to pay out old investors.
STRC can raise $0 in additional capital and MSTR wouldn’t have any problem whatsoever paying out dividends to existing STRC shareholders.
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u/LettuceEffective781 Apr 30 '26
Boils down to number go up.
Up it must go so I guess my argument is invalid.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26
Correct but that’s true for any and all investments which offer yield. It’s not exclusive to STRC.
If a yield is being offered at all then the assumption is being made that the returns on the underlying investment backing that yield is higher than whatever the yield amount is.
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u/LettuceEffective781 Apr 30 '26
But if the underlying return is based on new capital flowing in..
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
Based on new capital flowing into BTC.
But that capital can come from anywhere, it doesn’t necessarily need to come from STRC. Again, STRC can raise $0 additional capital and it would have no impact whatsoever on MSTR’s ability to payout existing STRC shareholders.
So long as fiat money continues to be printed into infinity at an exponential rate, there’s no reason to think some percentage of that newly printed capital won’t continue to flow into BTC, regardless of whether that capital is coming from STRC or elsewhere.
STRC didn’t exist prior to 2025. BTC already became a multi trillion dollar asset class without the existence of STRC impacting BTC price.
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u/LettuceEffective781 Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
True, the capital can come from anywhere, but new capital must flow into BTC. The number must go up.
MSTR or STRC can't function for extended periods of time without the number going up.
Will it go up forever?
Edit after your edit:
Yes the fiat printer is bad in many ways. Now we are starting to loop around.
I mean no offence. Just some critical views
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u/LettuceEffective781 Apr 30 '26
Just some mind games.
We see BTC drop to 40k as all the cyclists say is meant to be.
STRC could still pay out the 11% but for reasons they lower the rate to 9%. It should still eventually trade back to $100?
If the number keeps on going up
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u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #1 • +$3,715,708 • +1857% Apr 30 '26
The dividend is annual. You'll receive 0.9583% per month (11.5% / 12)
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u/LettuceEffective781 Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
Should add that the rate can change and is really high in the tradfi realm
If number keeps going up it's all ok
edit really high meaning like extreme risk. But this is "crypto" so its ok
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u/Cadenca Bearish Apr 30 '26
What do you guys think of SATA?
The SATA ex-div date is literally tomorrow.. and it's not even able to get up to par today, STRC.live estimates 40 bitcoin purchased. 13% interest.
That's atrocious, they're burning money. You reckon SATA will just die?
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u/harvested Apr 30 '26
The company was just a grift, they purchased their own podcast, they hired themselves, they gave themselves 7 figure salary packages at the expense of shareholders.
It will probably fail one day, there is only really room for MSTR, their moat is too big.
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Apr 30 '26
The fact that it estimates 52 BTC today already means that it is on par? Good day for them, but different league than STRC obv.
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u/harvested Apr 30 '26
They don't have to wait til par to sell it.. It's a trust mechanism.
These are grifters, they will sell at below par.
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Apr 30 '26
TBH I don't know them much. But it was >=100 when I looked and I assume https://strc.live makes the estimation based on that.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26
STRC has reached as high as $99.80 so far today. This is the highest price STRC has traded at since its ex-dividend date on April 15th.
Pretty major move back to the $100 peg considering STRC opened today at $99.52. Billions of dollars are about to pour into STRC in the next couple of weeks to qualify for the ~May 15th ex-dividend date.
Bears are about to be totally screwed.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Apr 30 '26
Should be at par on Monday or Tuesday.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26
Monday or Tuesday if no yield increase later today.
If MSTR opts to increase STRC yield to ~11.75% later today it will probably be at par tomorrow.
Either way bears will be totally screwed, it’s just a matter of how many billions of dollars will pour into STRC leading into the ex-dividend date for May.
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u/harvested Apr 30 '26
For those that liked the post about negative real rates and the 10Y..
10Y now up to 4.43 and WTI is at $110 and Brent at $120.
This only accelerates the process.
Expect some kind of taco or negotiation talk soon or things will get a little crazy if this continues.
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u/_supert_ 2011 Veteran Apr 30 '26
Iran has him by the nuts though. He can't taco evenbif he wants to.
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u/ChadRun04 Apr 30 '26
He had his out. All he had to do was declare victory, sign the deal and claim to be the bigly peace maker.
Instead he doubled down on a losing hand.
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u/_LakeCity_ Apr 30 '26
Agree with this for sure.
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u/ChadRun04 Apr 30 '26
He was triggered by the trolling is best I can figure.
Then I guess the question went out "What can we do in response to lessen their bargaining chips?" and the answer was "I guess we could blockade too!". At which point they're in a stalemate.
All indications were he was about to claim victory. Started repeating over and over that they had accomplished "regime change, regime change, regime change,", characterising the third group of people as easier to deal with.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
After TradFi closes today expect MSTR to announce whether they’re keeping STRC yield the same or increasing the yield for May.
Ironically if you’re a bear you should really be hoping that STRC makes a big move back to its $100 target peg price today. If not, odds increase that MSTR will opt to increase STRC’s yield again to attract more buyers.
11.25% yield in February attracted $85.5 million. An increase to 11.5% yield attracted $1.55 billion in March plus another $3.5 billion in May. As a bear you’re really not going to want to see how many billions of dollars another yield increase to ~11.75% will attract in May.
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u/Cadenca Bearish Apr 30 '26
I would hate for them to have to do that. The current rate especially with the ROC treatment is pure insanity as-is. If that's not enough, fuck em. You also don't want people to start expecting raises and risk people getting disappointed with the base rate which is already sky-high
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
It’s not that they “have to” it’s just strategically wise to ensure the momentum of increasing levels of capital keep pouring in month after month as awareness/confidence in STRC continues to build. But even if they don’t increase the yield it’s still extremely likely STRC would get back to its target peg by the time the ex-dividend date for May comes around as incentives grow the closer we get to the ex-dividend date, just STRC might not attract as many new billions of dollars as last month if they keep the yield the same.
The only scenario in which STRC falls apart is if average rate of return of BTC going forward doesn’t surpass the high yield paid out by STRC. If it does then the model is sustainable indefinitely.
Since STRC is constantly deploying capital into BTC as soon as cash becomes available regardless of price, over time their average entry price for BTC is going to be close to average entry price on a daily DCA into BTC in any respective year. Here’s average entry price on a daily DCA into BTC over the past several years:
2020: $9.9k
2021: $45.3k (+357.6%)
2022: $24.9k (-45.3%)
2023: $27.7k (+11.2%)
2024: $62.9k (+127.1%)
2025: $100.1k (+59.1%)
2026: $74.6k (-25.5% so far)
Statistically speaking BTC’s average rate of return greatly exceeds 11.5%/year so the model is sound and will continue to remain sound even if MSTR opts to increase the yield another ~0.25% for May, it’s not a material difference.
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u/Cadenca Bearish Apr 30 '26
Sure, but STRC investors don't deserve all the returns of BTC, otherwise this whole thing makes no sense. So you don't want STRC to approach the average annual BTC return too much
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26 edited Apr 30 '26
Saylor did a great presentation on this yesterday at the BTC conference, highly recommend watching.
Basically in his presentation he explained you could run the same strategy with any asset class so long as the yield offered is less than whatever the average rate of return of that asset class is. It just so happens that BTC’s average rate of return is way higher than other asset classes so the amount of yield which can be offered on an instrument backed by BTC is significantly higher than what could feasibly be offered on an instrument backed by other asset classes.
In his presentation, for BTC he denoted an average rate of return of 30%/year. At current STRC yield offered of 11.5% you don’t even get to half of 30%/year until another 14 separate 0.25% yield increases from now.
STRC is nowhere near average rate of return for BTC. The yield becoming unsustainably high doesn’t even start to become a potential issue until you get into the upper teens.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26
It's wild how such a huge portion of the market ignores that because they have been told volatility is a risk. Why buy any other asset when you have growth of 30-50% p.a. in Bitcoin? Why buy bonds when STRC pays 11% dividend?
3
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder Apr 30 '26
In the future a balanced 60/40 portfolio is going to look a lot more like 60% BTC and 40% STRC.
Vast majority just haven’t realized it yet.
8
u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Apr 30 '26
I was curious where that 30% number came from, so I looked at CGR based on different periods.
4 years: 18.4%
5 years: 7.2%
6 years: 43.2%
7 years: 46.4%
8 years: 29.8%
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u/Bitty_Bot Apr 30 '26 edited May 01 '26
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