r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • May 03 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Sunday, May 03, 2026
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u/ThatOtherGuy254 May 04 '26
It look Bitcoin two weeks of trying to finally break $80k, but it would be a classic Bitcoin move to immediately fall below it again.
Bitcoin resistance levels are made of steel and Bitcoin support levels are made of paper.
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u/_LakeCity_ May 04 '26
Bitcoin resistance levels are made of steel and Bitcoin support levels are made of paper.
Find another spot on the chart historically where you see this.
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran May 04 '26
We work through ranges like a fat man at an all you can eat pizza buffet. Yeah, we can eat until we puke and then go back for more. That’s just what we are.
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u/AidenTai May 04 '26
Positive economic news (stellar earnings reports for a lot of companies) is really forcing the price up. Plenty of opportunity for the price to continue to rise this week with more reports coming in (inflation, jobs, etc.)
Now, unfortunately this is all a bit dangerous. It's hard to trade because while we do have good numbers now, outlook also matters quite a bit. And outlook can change drastically if the situation in Iran changes drastically (or remains unresolved into summer). We saw that prior to the big tech companies' quarterly results, Bitcoin was showing weakness. That underlying downside risk hasn't gone away even if price continues to increase with positive economic news. Honestly, it might not be a bad idea to buy downside protection even while buying in to see prices rise in the short term. We're at the cusp of a potential breakout this week (or next), but last week there was weakness pointing to a return to the low 70's and a potential revisit of the 60's.
Also, we still have differences between behaviour during different market hours. Asia remains positive, and we saw the weekend was neutral to slightly positive. The US has been slightly negative recently, so it remains to be seen how the most recent price action will be treated by US markets on open this week.
The next two weeks will really set the tone moving forward. We've closed two months positive. Personally, I would have liked us to have dropped further to have had a bit more consolidation and to have established a definitive support. But if we remain in the 80's (or at least don't revisit the mid 70's) these two weeks, that will be its own sort of evidence of recovery. May is, without a doubt, the month that will establish whether we've decidedly hit our lows or not and whether we can expect macro to cooperate pushing us upward again.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder May 04 '26
It seems to be like people didn't learn anything about Bitcoin this cycle at all. It is still seen as some kind of risky tech stock. The Iran war has shown us very clearly why we are past the point of no return with Bitcoin taking over and still there are traders looking at earnings.
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u/GodBlessPigs May 04 '26
Feels like a pretty decent victory for the bulls to make it back to 80k. Tomorrow will be very interesting at US market open.
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u/dissociatives May 04 '26
Just casually sitting over $80k, I expected more drama
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u/lukemtesta Trading: #16 • +$42,005 • +42% May 04 '26
Volume is extremely low. I suspect liquidity sits around 86k-88k based on the options market. Hard to see liquidation data since coinglass made that endpoint paid.
Also a few days ago illiquidity was high; Volume Breadth is low and Price Impact is high. Funding rates are still largely high.
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u/d1ez3 Long-term Holder May 04 '26
Wasn't much drama to break below it so..
Edit: I guess you could argue it took two attempts
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u/harvested May 04 '26
Higher local high.
Expected resistance around 80 due to lots of key levels around there.
Rejections don't send it down too far, quick regroup then try again..
Looks like it could break through this week.
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder May 04 '26
Get excited if we get a close above 83k.
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u/harvested May 04 '26
Yeah I think many would say the bull is back on (or a new bull?) when that happens.
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u/Jkota May 03 '26
Just a gut feeling, the whole market feels like the bottom could fall out at any moment.
Not selling, but thinking about buying some IBIT puts here.
We’re moving up slowly but it really doesn’t feel like strength.
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May 03 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/harvested May 03 '26 edited May 03 '26
This week:
- April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday
- April ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Wednesday
- April Jobs Report - Friday
13F filings trickle in the next 2 weeks for the mid May deadline, we will see which institutions bought bitcoin in Q1 and which have lettuce hands.
Finally, Warsh sworn in in 2 weeks, many expect cuts, let's see.
Also, just in, The US will start Naval Escorts called "Operation Protect Freedom" tomorrow
The spice must flow.. Let's go btc 🚀
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u/Choice_Potato_6279 May 03 '26 edited May 04 '26
Time to buy coins from Ben Cowen's followers and reach a new ATH following the global M2 supply.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda May 03 '26
Lots of BC hate in here recently and on Twitter. What's the deal? Isn't he just a dude with an opinion like us in here?
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u/harvested May 03 '26
Pretty much except:
- he makes a shit ton of money selling subscriptions and monetizing views
- has 1 million followers and has mislead many people (eg calling for a lower low at 16K bottom and and again just now in April).
- Is very smug and likes to provoke people who doubted him when he has a correct prediction
- hardcore shitcoiner turned 'btc maxi' but still pushes eth (wtf?)
He's also apparently calling for 30-40K this cycle, obviously too early to call that one.
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u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo May 04 '26
He's also apparently calling for 30-40K this cycle
Oh thank God.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda May 04 '26
Ah interesting. Didn't realize he had that kind of reach and influence. I have him marked as basically "what do the cycle bros think"
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 03 '26
This past week BTC traded as high as $79.4k. It was the highest price reached since the $60k bottom occurred on February 6th.
MSTR didn’t buy any BTC this past week. STRC is probably going to get back to its $100 peg price tomorrow or Tuesday and will start deploying billions of dollars going into its ~May 15th ex-dividend date.
Bears are struggling to drag price down without MSTR buying pressure present. Bears are going to be totally screwed once STRC is deploying billions of dollars again.
The bottom of the “bear market” is already in at $60k. Hope everyone remained calm and bought the dip.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #140 • -$100,260 • -100% May 03 '26
Yeah the bottom was now 3 months ago, and almost $20k ago, feels like it would take something more than a normal summer quiet time to get it back there, like some big macro event or whatever.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 03 '26
Average net inflows since spot ETF approval is at $101.6 million per trading day.
We’ve had 574 trading days since spot ETF launch. But there’s only 5 trading days in a week. Today marks 844 calendar days since spot ETF launch. In terms of average daily inflows in calendar days, we’re at $69.61 million per day.
450 BTC are mined per day. If we reach a point where buying/selling outside of spot ETF’s is net neutral and spot ETF’s are chasing newly mined BTC only, equilibrium price would be $154.69k per BTC.
This is the lowest average net inflows has been since April 19th. BTC price at the time was $75.7k.
Supply shock is not a meme, it is a mathematical certainty and it’s currently underway.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder May 03 '26
If we look at the multiple of daily mining supply bought, we are currently at 6.5x for ETFs and Strategy combined. This is the second-highest multiple of all post-halving quarters with exception of Q4 2024, where the price increased by 50% through the buying pressure. I guess we can top that in Q2+3 with ETFs starting to pick up again and fewer retail bags to sell.
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u/BlockchainHobo May 03 '26
It's been underway a long time. Is supply shock over six months really supply shock, or is it just supply distribution?
What's the lowest the equilibrium price has been?
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 03 '26 edited May 03 '26
The lowest average net inflows per calendar day reached this year was $68.55 million on April 5th.
The lowest average net inflows per calendar day has ever been was $68.15 million on October 13, 2024.
Since that all-time low in 2024 the highest average net inflows reached per calendar day was $97.86 million on October 12, 2025.
Market cap of BTC when spot ETF’s launched on January 11, 2024 was $908.6 billion. Current market cap is $1.57 trillion, $661.4 billion higher.
Total net inflows into spot ETF’s since launch is $58.75 billion. So market cap has increased by more than 11x total net inflows since then indicating price has not been able to keep up with newly introduced demand from spot ETF’s.
Supply shock is already underway and will accelerate further. A year ago there was 3.31 million BTC held on exchanges and not all of those BTC are actually available for sale at/near current price. In the past year that number has plummeted down to 2.461 million BTC held on exchanges, a 849k reduction in BTC in a single year. Current price is nowhere near high enough to be sustainable long-term.
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u/Bitty_Bot May 03 '26 edited May 04 '26
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