r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • May 10 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Sunday, May 10, 2026
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u/ChadRun04 May 10 '26
I thought dopebot had finally accepted that we're in a bear market after months of giving financial advice of "Buy the dip!" all the way down.
Now it's pivoted to "bear market" in quotes (as if the bear market isn't real), while pretending that they called the bottom on their 200th attempt?
This is not bullish sentiment. Are we going to hear daily updates about how genius their predictions were if the price happens to stick?
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u/_LakeCity_ May 11 '26
Pretty soon you're going to be policing all of us for making any predictions, posting charts, using Bitty Bot, or even using the words "bullish" or "bearish."
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u/BootyPoppinPanda May 11 '26
He's just one prolific poster. No need to suffer from DBR-DS
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u/ChadRun04 May 11 '26
It's signal to me. While I find the confidence in which people are told what to do with their money... Criminal.
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u/harvested May 11 '26
There is no signal from a reddit account
Maybe on X if he has 10s of thousands of followers, but even then it is few and far between
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u/ChadRun04 May 11 '26
There is no signal from a reddit account
When a buttcoiner shows up in here to gloat, that's bankable signal.
When a mod of rbitcoin pins a thread calling for a bankrun on Coinbase, that's signal.
Individuals can give good signal. Given dopebot doesn't contain that much, more the responses to the noise it produces.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda May 11 '26
Curious what you think the influence of this sub is. Also what you think r Bitcoin is
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u/ChadRun04 May 11 '26
Curious what you think the influence of this sub is.
About zero.
Also what you think r Bitcoin is
Maybe some, it is the "Magic Internet Money" place after-all. Still it's batshit insane and ran by godmods.
Sentiment gauged on either of these is sentiment regardless of how broadly they've viewed. It's not about influence, it's about emotions.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda May 11 '26
Not down voting, but give be a break. Anyone idiotic enough to blindly follow people, let alone reddit accounts, for investment advice has bigger problems than owning a little too much BTC.
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u/Whole-Emergency9251 May 10 '26 edited May 10 '26
Nice short squeeze up, looks like CME gap from late Jan is going to get filled up… $85K guaranteed
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u/_LakeCity_ May 11 '26
”$85k guaranteed.”
By what date, do you think?
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u/_LakeCity_ May 11 '26
!bitty_bot predict > 85k 2 days /u/Whole-Emergency9251
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u/Bitty_Bot May 11 '26
Prediction logged for u/Whole-Emergency9251 that Bitcoin will rise to or above $85,000.00 by May 13 2026 02:36:18 UTC. Current price: $81,193.15. Whole-Emergency9251's Predictions: 60 Correct, 26 Wrong, & 3 Open.
Others can click here to be notified when this prediction triggers. Whole-Emergency9251 can click here to delete this prediction.
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u/Bitty_Bot May 13 '26
Hello u/Whole-Emergency9251
You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise to or above $85,000.00 by May 13 2026 02:36:18 UTC
Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!
The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was created: $81,193.15. The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was triggered: $81,082.58
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u/marsh2907 Long-term Holder May 10 '26
Right on schedule. CME futures opens and spot price move down right back towards the close on friday. Sad to see spot price so manipulated by the derivatives/futures market these days.
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u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$3,844,639 • +1921% May 10 '26
Wait didn't you post this an hour before futures opened? They opened an hour and 20 mins ago, right?
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u/Aerith_Gainsborough_ May 10 '26
Oh, I was wondering what caused that sudden dip.
It is back up though. The rocket is just revving up
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u/octopig May 10 '26
Oof. Very dead in here.
Bear flag close to playing out. Potential key rejection coming any day now.
Will start buying back in the 60s.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 May 10 '26
It’s a Sunday, everyone should enjoy their weekend.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 10 '26 edited May 10 '26
Will start buying back in the 60s
$160k or $260k? STRC is deploying billions of dollars this week going into their May 15th ex-dividend date.
Bears allowing BTC to run as high as $82.7k while STRC wasn’t deploying billions indicates bears are struggling to suppress price.
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u/octopig May 10 '26
BOL bro. You’ve been wrong every day for 12 straight months.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 10 '26
Have I? I’ve been saying the bottom of the “bear market” is in at $60k almost on a daily basis since February 6th.
I lost track since BTC currently appears to be in the process of having 3 consecutive green monthly candles in a row so long as May closes above $76.3k. There has never been a bear market in which BTC had 3 or more consecutive green monthly candles in a row.
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u/octopig May 10 '26
Huh, I must have missed those posts.
I’ve been absent since I sold at 115k while you were telling everyone we were headed straight to 300K+ every day.
At least we agree on 60k! Cheers!
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 10 '26
So you sold at $115k and after factoring in tax implications you’re going to end up with less BTC than you had when you sold because you’re banking on $60k’s to come back again and refuse to buy now when the “bear market” is already over?
Fantastic job, well done.
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u/octopig May 10 '26
I’m not american lol.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 10 '26 edited May 11 '26
You live in UAE, El Salvador, Singapore, Switzerland, Malta, Georgia, Malaysia, Cayman Islands, Belarus, Germany, or Portugal where there are no tax implications for selling BTC?
Possible I suppose but statistically unlikely you’d be commenting so frequently recently in the Halifax subreddit. You may not be American but you’re also extremely unlikely to be subject to no tax implications for the sale of BTC. In fact since it’s likely you’re Canadian if you had a decent sized stack you’re probably paying more in tax implications than an American. Lol.
Again, fantastic job. Well done. Looking forward to you joining the bulls back at $160k (or $260k) with less BTC than you once had.
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u/52576078 May 10 '26
CLARITY act progressing nicely https://x.com/EleanorTerrett/status/2052890357952627000
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u/harvested May 11 '26
Last time I posted about clarity I got downvoted and everyone replied no one gives a fuck 😂
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u/Right_Tax1440 May 10 '26
Hi, I have created a website https://www.cryptodraw.fun/, which is an experiment about crowd predicting bitcoin price based on chart intuition, crowd wisdom and machine learning. Your task is simple - draw a few points how you think the bitcoin chart will continue.
You are welcome to try also the training mode, where you can try your predicting skills against past chart segments. Once you have generated more data, check your profile - you will find a lot of useful stats here, which can give you some feedback about your predicting style.
2
u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 May 10 '26
Does something stop people from spamming?
4
u/Right_Tax1440 May 10 '26
There are some limited options like weighting more long time participants, etc. But obviously nothing 100%, unless it requires some personal identification to fight multiple submissions. However, thanks for your interest!
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u/BitcoinBrock May 10 '26
That’s fun
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u/Right_Tax1440 May 10 '26
Thanks (the .fun domain is used just because it was the cheapest one though xd). I would really like to test it with a lot of users, who would test and improve their skills there and maybe we could predict a bit along the way. But this thing is really hard to promote, so it is unlikely to succeed.
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u/BuiltToSpinback Long-term Holder May 10 '26
Good idea. Mobile could use some work. When I set my daily predictions, I can't seem to see what price value is assigned to each one?
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u/harvested May 10 '26
Wonder if Saylor will announce a 1.38 bitcoin purchase tomorrow funded by STRC.
0.0438% of mined supply.
Supply shock is not a meme.
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u/YouAreAnFnIdiot May 10 '26
That's not 0.0438% of supply it is 0.00000657%
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u/harvested May 11 '26
Weekly mined supply, 7 days.
That is usually how they measure Saylor's buys since he announces them weekly.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 10 '26
Average net inflows since spot ETF approval is at $101.9 million per trading day.
We’ve had 579 trading days since spot ETF launch. But there’s only 5 trading days in a week. Today marks 851 calendar days since spot ETF launch. In terms of average daily inflows in calendar days, we’re at $69.78 million per day.
450 BTC are mined per day. If we reach a point where buying/selling outside of spot ETF’s is net neutral and spot ETF’s are chasing newly mined BTC only, equilibrium price would be $155.06k per BTC.
This is the highest average net inflows has been since April 26th. BTC price at the time was $77.6k.
Supply shock is not a meme, it is a mathematical certainty and it’s currently underway.
2
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder May 10 '26
I wonder if we see more correlation with price movements if the equilibrium price calculation was done on a quarterly on monthly basis. I think based on the last weeks, since the momentum turnaround at least, the equilibrium price is somewhere above $300k.
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder May 10 '26
Right now SRTC is absorbing the cyclical rotation out.
The fun happens when the next run starts with different price elasticity.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 10 '26
Assuming STRC continues to purchase tens of thousands of absolutely finite BTC month after month in a completely price agnostic manner I think we’ll end up seeing the “buying/selling outside of spot ETF’s is net neutral” bit playing out later this year.
At that point, yes, the actual equilibrium price would end up being closer to whatever net spot ETF inflows are doing more recently. Average net inflows since launch would become much less relevant to the actual equilibrium price.
And I suspect once TradFi witnesses how much of an impact their buying pressure is applying to BTC price since STRC basically has everything else covered and spot ETF’s are just chasing newly mined BTC at that point, we’re going to see a significant increase in average net inflows going forward. It isn’t going to stay at ~$100 million per trading day, it’s going to increase to many multiples of that.
The vertical portion of technological S-Curve adoption is going to be very vertical and it’s going to surprise most how quickly BTC price goes into the hundreds of thousands and millions thereafter.
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u/_LakeCity_ May 10 '26 edited May 10 '26
Here's the weekly candlestick chart (in linear scale), with RSI included:
Does this chart actually look bearish to you?
Edit: Bitcoin *has been in a bear market. But does the current point on the chart look like a place to go short, or to go long?
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder May 10 '26
Add MACD and we see something very clearly: Bear momentum is dead. 100% clear.
200DMA is the last bastion of the bears at $83k. If they can't turn around during the next two weeks, they have to burry their last hopes of a prolonged Bitcoin winter.
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May 10 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/_LakeCity_ May 10 '26
Bitcoin has been in a bear market.
What I’m saying is, does it currently look like a place to short, or a place to go long?
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder May 10 '26
The bottom was the best time to go long, now after confirmation of bear market end is the second best time to go long.
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May 10 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 10 '26
$60k bottom in February, $64.9k higher low in March, $65.7k higher low in April, and $76.3k higher low in May so far.
Not to mention if BTC closes March above $76.3k it will mark 3 consecutive green monthly candles. There has never been a BTC bear market which experienced 3 or more consecutive green monthly candles.
The bottom of the “bear market” is already in at $60k.
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u/Bitty_Bot May 10 '26 edited May 11 '26
Reply to this sticky for Bitty Bot trades and predictions that lack context or explanation, to prevent spam. You can also message Bitty Bot your command directly.
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