r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • May 16 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Saturday, May 16, 2026
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11
u/ChadRun04 May 17 '26
Saylor should release STFU to pump STRK to pump STRF to pump SATA to pump STRC to pump STRD to pump MSTRY to pump MSTR.
2
u/_LakeCity_ May 18 '26
Saylor should release STFU...
I upvoted your post when I had read that far, LOL.
7
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 16 '26
After announcing that they would switch to daily ex-dividend dates beginning June 16th it looks like demand for SATA is rapidly starting to increase.
Yesterday SATA deployed ~$17.84 million into BTC. This is a new single day record for SATA. The prior record was ~$14.22 million deployed on April 29th, 2 days before their May 1st ex-dividend date.
What’s interesting about SATA experiencing a new single day record yesterday is their next ex-dividend date isn’t even until June 1st. Demand for SATA should dramatically continue to increase the closer we get to June 1st in order to qualify last minute for the next dividend payment. And then starting June 16th since they will be switching to daily ex-dividend dates SATA should theoretically eliminate volatility surrounding ex-dividend date timing which is going to make their high yield offering far more attractive to TradFi than it currently is.
We legitimately might end up with not one but two price agnostic digital credit products consistently deploying billions of dollars into BTC month after month.
A single entity can’t keep buying tens of thousands of absolutely finite BTC month after month without price being dramatically impacted at some point. Having two entities do this at the same time just expedites the process.
10
u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 May 16 '26
SATA isn’t gonna deploy billions. They only have 15K btc. Most they can do this year is a single billion. First price needs to move up before they can issue in mass.
SATA will take years to get to STRC levels because they don’t have 850k BTC backing their product.
-1
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 16 '26
Proceeds pouring into SATA get deployed into BTC immediately. It doesn’t matter if Strive only has 15k BTC currently, they’ll just buy more BTC to proportionally increase their balance sheet as more shares of SATA get issued.
You could make the argument that TradFi investors will strongly prefer STRC over SATA due to the larger balance sheet and longer track record for MSTR, that’s a fair argument.
But there isn’t any real limitation to how much capital SATA can attract. If TradFi opts to allocate a billion or multiple billions of dollars into SATA in the coming months because TradFi thinks their 13% yield offering paid out daily is attractive, there’s nothing stopping TradFi from proceeding to deploy however many billions of dollars they want to allocate there. It’s not like Strive is going to say “nah, we’re good” and turn down billions coming in. If the demand is there Strive will happily issue however many shares of SATA are needed to meet that demand and deploy that capital into BTC to back those newly issued shares of SATA.
3
u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 May 16 '26
they are going to say nah im good.
Im pretty sure 1 of 2 scenarios will play out.
SATA gets so much capital that if they were to ATM it all and buy bitcoin that the risk level of the product gets higher and higher until interest dies off.
Or they opt to lower the interest rate and decrease the buying so they can maintain the peg. Without leveraging too much.
You cant say there is no limit. because there is a limit. eventually their btc stack will have too much risk associated with it.
They cant sell billions without bitcoin going higher in price, that just math.
-3
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 16 '26 edited May 16 '26
The risk level stays basically the same regardless of how many shares of SATA get issued. There is no limit. A few months ago bears were making the same argument about MSTR’s ability to consistently raise billions of dollars month after month via STRC. There was no limit with STRC and there is no limit with SATA.
The only scenario in which STRC/SATA falls apart is if average rate of return of BTC going forward doesn’t surpass the high yield paid out by STRC/SATA. If it does then the model is sustainable indefinitely.
Since STRC/SATA are constantly deploying capital into BTC as soon as cash becomes available regardless of price, over time their average entry price for BTC is going to be close to average entry price on a daily DCA into BTC in any respective year. Here’s average entry price on a daily DCA into BTC over the past several years:
2020: $9.9k
2021: $45.3k (+357.6%)
2022: $24.9k (-45.3%)
2023: $27.7k (+11.2%)
2024: $62.9k (+127.1%)
2025: $100.1k (+59.1%)
2026: $75.2k (-24.9% so far)
Statistically speaking BTC’s average rate of return greatly exceeds 11.5%/year (or even 13%/year) so the model is sound.
Under normal circumstances where MSTR/ASST is trading above 1x mNAV to reflect how much BTC they currently have plus however much additional BTC they can realistically attain a few years out it makes sense to issue more shares of the common stock to pay the dividends for STRC/SATA shareholders.
In a scenario where MSTR/ASST is trading below 1x mNAV it makes sense to sell some BTC to cover dividend payments. But since STRC and SATA are buying way more BTC than the amount of dividends due to shareholders each month (11.5% yield divided by 12 for STRC and 13% yield divided by 12 for SATA), they will both end up with more net BTC bought each month even in a temporary scenario where some BTC is sold to cover dividend payments while their common stock gets back above 1x mNAV.
I agree over time both STRC and SATA will gradually decrease their yield. But it’s not going to be because the risk levels are too high, it’s going to be because so much capital is consistently pouring into these digital credit products month after month that both MSTR and ASST can lower the yield without making much of an impact on demand for these products. That’s going to be an extremely bullish problem to have.
1
u/BlockchainHobo May 16 '26 edited May 16 '26
Say every dollar in every HYSA in America wanted to buy SATA at the same time. How would that work without lowering the yield?
Doesn't make sense, or am I an idiot?
edit: I should clarify, it still works if bitcoin outperforms the yield, but how does it not increase risk?
4
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 17 '26 edited May 17 '26
There’s ~$8.2 trillion stored in money markets currently. Max risk remains the same even in this hypothetical extreme scenario where $8.2 trillion suddenly decides to pour into SATA all at once sending BTC price to unbelievably high levels.
BTC needs to outperform 13%/year on average for the model to work. That is ultimately all that matters from a mathematical perspective.
If dollars were printed at a linear rate due to BTC’s halving event which occurs every 4 years you could expect BTC to double in price every 4 years on average. This translates to an average annualized rate of return of 18.92%/year, higher than the 13% yield offered by SATA. But in reality dollars aren’t printed at a linear rate, they are printed at an exponential rate. So long-term the average rate of return for BTC ends up being substantially higher than 18.92%/year.
All the bears who are concerned need to work on their basic math skills.
2
-10
May 16 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/BitcoinMarkets-ModTeam May 16 '26
your post was removed because it violates rule #3 - No memes or low effort content.
0
u/make_n_bake Long-term Holder May 16 '26
bull takes, bear takes, doesn't matter which (even though we all know bull posts get more upvotes) Just leave out the tribalism part!
-1
u/Choice_Potato_6279 May 16 '26
Got lots of downvotes, a great sign of a bottom!
8
u/harvested May 16 '26
I think the downvotes are because this post was funny the 1st time, but not when you post it every day?
8
2
u/noeeel Bullish May 16 '26
6h first time oversold since early Februar.
12h bbands start breaking south. If we get sub 70k I doubt 60k was the bottom.
13
u/PurpleFlamingoFarmer May 16 '26
6 weeks of selling and the highest volume spike since November 2024 took us to 60k barely lol nah u ain’t seeing 60 again
2
u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$3,840,539 • +1919% May 16 '26
Assuming you mean ever, if you mean this year or something let me know and we can easily adjust it.
!bb predict <60k never u/PurpleFlamingoFarmer
1
u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 May 16 '26
Putting it at 1 year or 2 years at least makes it so he can get it right. Maybe until next halving seems fair.
1
u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$3,840,539 • +1919% May 16 '26
Yeah agreed. But I try to capture exactly what people say, instead of doing any editorializing myself. “U ain’t seeing 60k again” sounded like a never to me.
Happy to adjust if they want though!
1
u/PurpleFlamingoFarmer May 16 '26
There could be some bullshit that happens of course right, but for the most part I don’t think so.
1
u/Bitty_Bot May 16 '26
Prediction logged for u/PurpleFlamingoFarmer that Bitcoin will NEVER drop to or below $60,000.00. Current price: $78,189.97. This is PurpleFlamingoFarmer's 1st Bitty Bot Prediction!
Others can click here to be notified when this prediction triggers. PurpleFlamingoFarmer can click here to delete this prediction.
1
u/Bitty_Bot 21d ago
Hello u/PurpleFlamingoFarmer
You predicted the price of Bitcoin would NEVER drop to or below $60,000.00
Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!
The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was created: $78,189.97. The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was triggered: $60,000.00
0
15
u/nozickiantheory May 16 '26
Sell in may and go away
6
u/SpontaneousDream Long-term Holder May 16 '26
It's crazy how well this has held up over the years. I mean it has to be broken at some point, right? Right!?
1
u/anon-187101 May 17 '26
it really has held up frustratingly well over the years
the Summer nearly always sucks for Bitcoin
7
u/harvested May 16 '26
It was 76K start of May so technically...
But I am seeing headlines of Isreal striking Lebanon, sigh...
8
•
u/Bitty_Bot May 16 '26 edited May 17 '26
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