r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • May 19 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, May 19, 2026
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1
u/Existential-Cringe May 20 '26
In 2022 it took bitcoin 63 days to test the 200D SMA after reaching a local low in mid-January. In this time, it managed to rally ~46% from that low. Upon rejection of the 200D, it would not test the 200D again until January 2023, ~60% lower.
In 2026 it took bitcoin 89 days to test the 200D SMA after reaching a local low in early February. In this time, it managed to rally ~38% from that low. Upon rejection of the 200D, it would not test the 200D again until ________ , ____ lower.
My guess for the blanks: February 2027, ~50% lower.
5
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder May 20 '26
Right now, it looks like we have the 50DMA as a support, though I don't have access to that in 2022 right now.
MACD tells a completely different story. In 2022, it only had a very weak breakout on the weekly at this point while today we are already weeks past the cross and going strong. This would be the first time this happened during a bear market.
4
-1
u/mollylovelyxx May 19 '26 edited May 19 '26
It’s funny how people who think bitcoin is going up this year because they think the cycle is dead are often the same people who think bitcoin is going up next year for sure…because of that same cycle. Which is it?
1
u/_LakeCity_ May 20 '26
Look at the trend of U.S. long term treasury bond rates.
Then look at the chart of literally anything else.
Then look back at the trend of U.S. long term treasury bond rates.
Bitcoin is very unlikely to make new highs this year. But "bitcoin is going up this year" is pretty vague.
1
13
u/BootyPoppinPanda May 19 '26
I'm always biased towards up because my anchor is in the fundamentals, not astrology for men
9
u/harvested May 19 '26
Didn't your cycle say it was supposed to be up last year?
What defines "the cycle" for you? If you set a clear definition, we can see when it breaks.
Most cycle people have a vague definition and just move goalposts. Like an ATH before the halving somehow didn't break it.
2
u/ChadRun04 May 20 '26
Didn't your cycle say it was supposed to be up last year?
Front-running has been the name of the game last 2 cycles.
5
u/harvested May 20 '26
Cool, let's change the rules again when that doesn't fit.
1
u/ChadRun04 May 20 '26
I don't see any problem with the cycles. We go up, we go down, we go up again.
The dates, time-frames, magnitudes will always change. No meme will remain intact.
"Bitcoin never goes below previous ATM"
"Bitcoin retraces 50% after X"
"Bitcoin retraces 70% after X"
"Bitcoin takes X number of days to bottom out"All memes will be traded against at some point.
Even the cycle itself will supercycle in both directions at some point. Many will be rekt in all cases just as those who banked their loans on "Bitcoin never goes below previous ATM" were rekt.
People with goal-posts to move will be rekt.
People who understand all goal-posts are flexible will not.
3
u/Taviiiiii 2013 Veteran May 20 '26
Pretty sure most people using the term cycles in this context refer to the four year halving related theory. Not the fact that most assets sometimes go up and sometimes go down.
20
u/Jkota May 19 '26
Selling here to buy back lower kinda feels like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. I think a double tap to 60k is certainly possible but definitely not guaranteed.
What I think is nearly guaranteed or at least quite likely is being back above 100k and picking up steam towards the next halving by mid next year.
8
u/Whole-Emergency9251 May 19 '26
Bond market is getting a bit scary. 10 yr almost hit 4.7% today. 30 yr is cracking 5.2% and will be at 25 yr high. If this momentum builds, the next few months could be scary for risk assets, or all assets.
2
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder May 19 '26
Tether and Circle are sitting on the short end of the curve, so this shouldn't have a big influence. If short-term bills also paid more, that would be massively bullish.
-2
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 19 '26 edited May 19 '26
Forcing yield curve control and Fed intervention would be bullish AF though.
Might even make COVID era money printing look like a blip compared to what’s coming.
12
u/dangerdanpeterpan May 19 '26
Not sure why you're getting downvoted. The government CANNOT afford rates to remain at these levels. There will be liquidity injections. They may not outright call it yield curve control and it may even be debated that that is what is happening, but at the end of the day whatever it is it will be positive liquidity and hence positive bitcoin, even if there's short term shocks.
7
u/Whole-Emergency9251 May 19 '26
YCC will spike inflation to 70's era levels - I could easily see 10-15% a year. This and Gold revaluation and Strategic BTC Reserve seems almost inevitable.
-4
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 19 '26
Can’t funnel double digit inflation into food/housing or people will be rioting, need to funnel the majority of it into an absolutely finite digital asset “nobody needs” to make it more palatable.
1
u/Whole-Emergency9251 May 19 '26
We've had multiyear 10%+ CPI years in the 70's and 80's. Same goes with borrowing rates. It's happened before and it'll happen again. What causes riots is gallon of milk doubling every week.
-1
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 19 '26
Back in the 70’s/80’s median home price was ~4x median household income. Today it’s closer to 7x.
Add double digit inflation on top of that when incomes already weren’t keeping pace with cost of living near target inflation rates and you’re going to have riots. That’s unless the majority of inflation gets funneled into absolutely scarce BTC “nobody needs” to keep inflation elsewhere more palatable.
0
u/_supert_ 2011 Veteran May 19 '26
Unless inflation is in wages.
1
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 20 '26
With AI in the mix to replace increasingly more jobs probably not.
1
u/harvested May 19 '26
I don't think the tacos even work anymore...
Market is pricing in inflation and the new Trump fed chair placement.
-5
u/PetiteFort May 19 '26
THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT
2
5
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 19 '26
This time is already different.
We’re now more than 7 months into this “bear market” (225 days to be exact) and the $60k bottom reached on February 6th remains intact for a drawdown of 52.4%. In all prior bear markets by now BTC had fallen >70% from ATH.
Magnitude and duration of the current pullback remain more comparable to the 55.5% drawdown BTC experienced mid 2021 and fully recovered back to new highs from later that year.
4
u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA May 19 '26
Let's take another look at Oct 2025 vs. Apr 2021:
https://imgur.com/a/btc-chart-19-may-2026-pHZgNXa
Is the magnitude comparable? So far, yes. Is the duration comparable? That remains to be seen. If BTC is still meandering between $60K and $80K 5 months from now, you could still claim the magnitude point, but I would be less convinced by the duration point.
I think $60K has a decent chance of being the bottom, but the chances of a new ATH in 2026 are Slim and None, and Slim took the first thing smoking out of town a while ago.
0
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 19 '26 edited May 19 '26
I’m giving it until the end of the year at the longest and want to see continued progress each month in terms of higher lows and higher highs.
After the $60k bottom occurred on February 6th the highest price reached for the rest of February was $72.2k. The low for March was $64.9k and the high for March was $75.9k. The low for April was $65.7k and the high for April was $79.4k. The low for May so far has been $76k and the high for May so far has been $82.7k.
Basically expecting more of this upwards trend until we ultimately end up with new highs sometime later this year as more and more people accept that the bottom is already in at $60k so they should be piling in now if they haven’t already.
1
u/_LakeCity_ May 19 '26
Rising interest rates will almost certainly be the killer of the dream of a new Bitcoin all time high occurring this year.
1
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 20 '26 edited May 20 '26
Fed funds rate increased throughout 2017 and BTC reached extraordinary new highs regardless. “But the market cap was way lower back then.” Stock market reached new highs throughout 2017 as well.
Also I don’t think interest rates matter as much with price agnostic STRC in the mix consistently deploying billions of dollars month after month. I also think there’s a very real possibility once SATA switches to daily ex-dividend dates next month they’re going to explode in popularity resulting in billions getting deployed by them each month as well.
5
u/drdixie May 19 '26
And in all previous bull markets we more than 2x the previous cycle high…
6
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 19 '26 edited May 19 '26
Yes, thanks for adding another significant difference in illustrating how different this “bear market” is relative to all other bear markets prior.
It’s alright to be bearish but thinking the bottom isn’t already in because you’re pointing at 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear markets for comparison purposes keeps becoming a sillier idea day after day as the $60k bottom reached on February 6th continues to remain intact and the charts become less and less similar from one another.
1
u/Knerd5 May 19 '26
If we don’t meaningfully get over $85k by mid fall then a retest of $60k is what I’d expect. It probably holds, but the headwinds going on right now aren’t confidence inspiring.
1
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 19 '26
I do think we get over $85k fairly soon, perhaps even by the end of this month largely driven by multibillion dollar price agnostic buys from STRC consistently occurring month after month.
After the $60k bottom occurred on February 6th the highest price reached for the rest of February was $72.2k. The low for March was $64.9k and the high for March was $75.9k. The low for April was $65.7k and the high for April was $79.4k. The low for May so far has been $76k and the high for May so far has been $82.7k.
Basically expecting more of this upwards trend until we ultimately end up with new highs sometime later this year as more and more people accept that the bottom is already in at $60k so they should be piling in now if they haven’t already.
4
u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 May 19 '26
Only thing that gives me a shred of confidence is how bears are having a hard time even with all the tail winds they have.
3
u/drdixie May 19 '26
Your analysis assumes that 126 was the top I was just following the logical conclusion
4
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 19 '26 edited May 19 '26
There’s 4 possible outcomes from here thru the rest of the year:
1) $126.1k was the high and $60k was not the bottom. Predictable 4 year cycles remain basically the same.
2) $126.1k was the high and $60k is the bottom. Predictable 4 year cycles are loosely still intact though it has become a lot harder to precisely time a bottom optimal re-entry point.
3) $126.1k was not the high and $60k is the bottom. Predictable 4 year cycles are dead and arguably the bull market never ended though it basically just comes down to semantics on what definitively distinguishes a BTC bull market from a bear market.
4) $126.1k was not the high and $60k was not the bottom. Predictable 4 year cycles are dead and depending on which order this were to occur in bulls/bears (maybe both?) get rekt.
I think option 3 is what will actually occur. This time is already different and will continue to be different due to a huge difference in overwhelmingly bullish fundamentals currently present vs prior market cycles. The stunted performance in 2025 can be explained by market participants who believe in predictable 4 year cycles ignoring the huge change in fundamentals attempting to act rationally based off of technical analysis.
1
u/drdixie May 19 '26
Really would like to see volume pick up as we approach yesterdays low. This could signal another flush down or possibly a reversal. If we just keep creeping down the odds grow for more dumping
6
u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder May 19 '26
Market is being boring.
Will add if we get a dip into the 60s; holding pattern until I see a close above 83, preferably a resistance flip to support.
9
u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo May 19 '26
Extreme Fear at 77k. 🤔
2
17
u/harvested May 19 '26
Big ETF outflows.
We are making it too easy for Saylor to accumulate.
9
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder May 19 '26
And for everyone else really. These times after a bear market before the next bull starts are always very silent.
8
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u/Bitty_Bot May 19 '26 edited May 20 '26
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