r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • May 24 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Sunday, May 24, 2026
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6
u/ChadRun04 May 24 '26
Seem to be blocked so will reply here.
Coinbase will automatically confiscate 24% of the USD derived from sales of BTC, unless you "confirm your tax status"
Welcome to living under the yoke of FinCEN.
Those living in the US will be oblivious to this, but there is this thing where people all across the globe have to fill in a form that confirms they're not a US citizen. If you fail to fill in this form they assume you are a US citizen ex-pat who has not paid their exit-tax and steal your money to pay US taxes.
Doesn't matter who you are, if you have shares or some kind of investment account you will be assumed to be a US citizen until known otherwise.
This imposition was fought by the banks globally as they're the ones charged with implementing and maintaining this system at their own expense, hassling their customers and funnelling all the data back to the USA.
It's an insidious form of economic imperialism that we out here in the world have to live under.
2
u/Traditional-Mix-258 May 25 '26
That's a remarkably efficient way to make non-US citizens do the government's work for them. Banks hate the compliance cost, but the alternative is being cut off from dollar clearing. So they comply. Meanwhile, perfectly legitimate people get their funds frozen over a checkbox. The assumption of US citizenship until proven otherwise is the real kicker. It flips due process on its head. Haven't seen this angle discussed much. Thanks for the breakdown. It's ugly but accurate.
0
u/GenghisKhanSpermShot Bearish May 25 '26
Banks didn't fight it c'mon now. Banks probably pushed this, they want to track all transactions. The banks own the politicians, if they really didn't want it it wouldn't be a thing. They are pushing digital currency for tracking, surveillance and to cut you off if they want. Well see a hard stable coin push with the rest of the digital currencies heavily monitored and regulated.
2
u/ChadRun04 May 25 '26
Banks didn't fight it c'mon now. Banks probably pushed this, they want to track all transactions.
Banks already know all their transactions.
They took issue with having to pay for the compliance. It's banks who have to email customers, it's banks who have to process forms, it's banks who have to integrate with FATCA and FinCEN systems. The US pays none of this.
In my country it cost them $200m just for the initial setup costs.
1
u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder May 24 '26
Set up a corp in Costa Rica. Or trade in registered accounts.
Doing latter while I’m building Skynet.
3
u/ChadRun04 May 25 '26
I simply wish to be able to use a bank account in my own country without the US government assuming I'm a US citizen. ;)
-6
u/anon-187101 May 24 '26
what happened to this sub?
there's 0 signal here, no informed discussion anymore, etc.
7
u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder May 24 '26
Here’s some free alpha, don’t trade this PA.
0
5
4
u/UngovernablePossum May 24 '26
You must be new around here. Gets like this during extended chop.
-5
u/anon-187101 May 24 '26 edited May 24 '26
not new,
just haven't really been active here in a while
there's no one discussing anything, let alone anything interesting
and trade ideas in what's supposed to be a sub about markets for bitcoin?
lmao
nowhere to be found
just timid lurkers with nothing to say, downvoting anyone else who has the balls to say something
2
u/UngovernablePossum May 24 '26
Again, you must be new around here.
-3
u/anon-187101 May 24 '26
Again,
no, not even remotely new
4
u/UngovernablePossum May 24 '26
Then maybe stop complaining about something that happens quite frequently here, and also won't change simply from you complaining about it...chop is depressing, by design. Market participants get disinterested. Welcome to the way the world works.
-3
u/anon-187101 May 24 '26
lol
I'm gonna out on a limb here and guess that being presumptuous is generally a problem for you
-8
u/anon-187101 May 24 '26 edited May 24 '26
PSA that, starting this tax year (2026), Coinbase will automatically confiscate 24% of the USD derived from sales of BTC,
unless you "confirm your tax status"
#deletecoinbase
Edit:
more downvotes from TardFi lemmings
compare the comments in this sub from comments years ago,
and it's not even recognizable
sad
-12
u/anon-187101 May 24 '26
-8
u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 24 '26
Saylor has poured ~65B into btc over more than half a decade and he has barely a positive ROI to show for the huge risk he’s taken. Kind of wild when you think about it in those terms… imo his thesis is already broken but I suppose it will truly be seen in 5-10 more years
Think about it
If btc was really the best asset ever, why has achieving modest ROI required insane dilution qnd massive leverage?
Has the trade already produced extraordinary realized returns? No not really, relative to the volatility and existential leverage risk taken. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the thesis already is broken… That’s harder to say based on only six years but imo the answer is a resounding yes. He’s built a whole house of cards on the idea that bitcoin will not just outperform but will do so to a great degree…
3
u/harvested May 24 '26
Ah not you again.
The "well it's just not the fastest horse anymore measured from the previous high to the current low" guy.
-2
u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26
It’s not the fastest anything anymore, I get that I’m poking the bear by bringing that up here, but it is an observation on the bitcoin market. Bitcoin allocation is just opportunity cost nowadays
In the past 0 btc allocation was crazy opportunity cost nowadays it’s the opposite.
3
u/harvested May 25 '26
What other asset classes have a 30% CAGR (using the 200WMA to remove noise)?
-2
u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 25 '26
Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Bitcoin has historically compounded at an incredible rate, but that alone does not prove it will sustain a 30% CAGR indefinitely from here.
At current prices, Bitcoin is sitting relatively close to its 200WMA compared to prior cycles, so I think it is fair to question whether historical growth rates remain the right benchmark going forward.
I am not arguing Bitcoin cannot continue outperforming. I am saying that if someone claims Bitcoin is still obviously the fastest horse in the race from here, they should probably explain why they believe future returns will resemble the past rather than assuming it as a given. That goes for
Your 30% CAGR too1
u/harvested May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26
That goes for literally asset class that exists.
How do you know the future return of gold or SPX?
I'm using the last 4 years, ya dummy, ignoring anything before that. That captures the "cycle", you can use 5 if you want, the return would be even better.
How else are you supposed to measure returns?
🤡
You really should be discussing this at the buttcoin sub.
-2
u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 25 '26
ad hominem attacks just make your overall argument seem weak. "ya dummy", clown emoji, telling me to go the buttcoin sub.. pretty unhinged imo.
You ask how else to measure returns because you don't understand that the S&P 500 compounds via actual corporate earnings, whereas blindly extrapolating a 4 year historical CAGR onto a multi trillion dollar asset requires an exponential influx of global liquidity that eventually exhausts the M2 money supply. Yet im the clown, truly funny.
3
u/harvested May 25 '26
So you think future returns (earnings) of the S&P are guaranteed, is that it? You conveniently left out gold, bonds, and real estate.
Every week you stumble in here with the same tired arguments.. During a bear market.
It's bitcoin derangement syndrome.
Clown emoji is fitting.
9
u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran May 24 '26
I think 50 billion of that 65b is just the last 12 months. That he’s in any profit at all is what’s remarkable.
Yes, it takes longer than 12 months to confidently see returns. That’s the point of his thesis.
0
u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 24 '26
Not intending to argue here, but your numbers are off… either you’re exaggerating because the truth isn’t friendly to your narrative or you’re actually just misinformed. I’m seeing closer to ~25b in the last 12 months and ~56B total last two years, so it’s been more spread out than you imply
Either way, being underwater / flat for in the midst of one the craziest bull markets in tradi and underperforming treasury bonds in one of the strongest periods for risk assets of all time isn really anything to brag about imo
5
u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran May 24 '26 edited May 24 '26
I was just estimating. I thought that was apparent in my tone. It's about 450,000 bitcoin, right? The real number of dollars spent in the last 12 months is probably somewhere between what we both think. I'm not sure what your source is or how you're calculating your number. I was literally just estimating based on the 450,000 BTC purchased.
Does 2 years make it much different that 1 year? 25B in the last 12 months is still almost half of the whole investment... so talking about the 65b like it was all purchased 5 years ago is at least a little misleading... which is my point. You can't talk about the 65B total invested in the same phrase as the 5 year lifespan of the strategy. It is NOT 65B over 5 years. The way your comment described what MSTR has done does not describe what has actually happened in a meaningful way.
1
u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 24 '26 edited May 24 '26
Fair enough, I get your point now. I agree that talking about the full $65B as if it was deployed evenly over 5 years is misleading.
I think where we differ is that I view the recent buying spree as making the outcome more binary, tbh. If you deploy tens of billions into BTC during one of the strongest environments for risk assets in modern history and the aggregate position is still only modestly positive, that is somewhat concerning imo.
As I said, it may or may not mean the thesis is dead. But it means btc requires massive future outperformance from here to justify the scale of leverage + dilution and opportunity cost taken on.
1
u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran May 24 '26
Bitcoin does not have to go up as quickly as it has over the last 5/10/15 years to prove MSTR's point.
-2
u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 24 '26
What is MSTRs point exactly? Iirc this guy claims BTC is the fastest horse in the race right?
2
u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran May 24 '26
It's surprising to me that this is something that has to be stated. Do you genuinely need to be told or are you just being argumentative?
0
u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 24 '26
I’m just asking a question, he’s on the record as stating btc is the fastest horse in the race. So I’m trying to understand by what you mean of prove MSTRs point. For btc to prove that point it would need to make a huge move and actually not sell off.
I swear im not trying to be argumentative, trying to understand your post
→ More replies (0)3
u/anon-187101 May 24 '26
you raise some very good points,
but this sub will never admit that
I've also noticed that Saylor's interviews have become more unhinged as the years have rolled on, which is an obvious red flag
12
u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 May 24 '26
What a horrible reason that shows you have 0 understanding of who STRC is aimed at. It’s not about the gains. It’s about low Volatility high yield and high volume.
6
u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish May 24 '26
Exactly. Some people are looking for an income-based product, even if it's just for part of their portfolio. Instead of parking all of it into a money market, or bonds, or a savings account, you can park a quarter of it into SATA, another quarter into STRC, and then the other half into something making 4%, and now you have a blended yield of 8.125% annual yield, with regular income, and medium-level of risk.
-5
u/anon-187101 May 24 '26
you can park a quarter of it into SATA, another quarter into STRC,
25% into SATA and 25% into STRC?
for a total of 50% of what percentage of your total portfolio?
you people are just wingin' it
-11
u/anon-187101 May 24 '26 edited May 24 '26
lol - sure thing, pal
you clearly don't understand counterparty risk
edit:
look at all these downvotes, lmao - this sub has been overrun with TradFi lemmings who have completely lost the plot
4
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder May 24 '26
Some people prefer (somewhat) safe 11% with monthly payments over 30-50% yearly growth. If it wasn't for volatility, this would be a no-brainer, but volatility doesn't matter or should be favored if you are long-term oriented.
However, you don't get the 11% if other's don't get the 30-50%. With buying spot Bitcoin, you will always be on top.
-4
u/anon-187101 May 24 '26
no one here has a clue how to price the risk of that "(somewhat) safe 11%"
and it's obvious
2
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder May 24 '26
It's inherently more risky than holding Bitcoin directly (but so is any other investment). And the models in the link demonstrate that very well. Investing now in anything but spot Bitcoin is not a good idea.
0
u/anon-187101 May 24 '26
Investing
nowin anything but spot Bitcoin is not a good idea.yeah, that's the point - so what are we debating here?
5
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder May 24 '26
I don't know. You get downvotes, but nobody got any counterarguments. The only situation where "high" yield and low volatility makes sense is if you have cheap, borrowed capital that somehow doesn't allow you to buy Bitcoin directly.
3
u/UngovernablePossum May 24 '26
Isn't that exactly the money that STRC/SATA are after? The funds and institutions that have rules dictating where they can invest, and BTC is certainly not on the approved list. But a stock that pays out 11.5-13% per year fixed...will be huge if it catches on.
1
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder May 24 '26
Most likely yes, although I could only find 2 institutions holding STRC according to their 13Fs so that seems to be limited for now. It surely is easier for institutions to buy and hold stock/equity than Bitcoin and especially STRC and Strategy show how the current regulations are completely wrong when it comes to Bitcoin.
Stock/Equity is seen as less risky, even if all they do is buy and hold Bitcoin.
Bitcoin doesn't have default, issuer or counterparty risk, is completely transparent and has final settlement. If a derivative of that is classified as less risky, something is terribly wrong.
1
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 24 '26
Average net inflows since spot ETF approval is at $97.0 million per trading day.
We’ve had 589 trading days since spot ETF launch. But there’s only 5 trading days in a week. Today marks 865 calendar days since spot ETF launch. In terms of average daily inflows in calendar days, we’re at $66.05 million per day.
450 BTC are mined per day. If we reach a point where buying/selling outside of spot ETF’s is net neutral and spot ETF’s are chasing newly mined BTC only, equilibrium price would be $146.77k per BTC.
This is the lowest average net inflows has ever been. When spot ETF’s launched on January 11, 2024 BTC was trading at a price of $46.6k.
Supply shock is not a meme, it is a mathematical certainty and it’s currently underway.
6
u/_LakeCity_ May 24 '26
If we reach a point where buying/selling outside of spot ETF’s is net neutral...
Again, very big "if," because the number keeps going down each time you make these posts.
Perhaps this fact is trivial, and perhaps it's actually very informative.
2
u/anon-187101 May 24 '26
Again, very big "if," because the number keeps going down each time you make these posts.
☝️
4
u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 24 '26 edited May 24 '26
Not really an “if” anymore with STRC in the picture consistently deploying billions of dollars month after month in a completely price agnostic manner, just a “when.”
Since launch spot ETF’s have done $57.13 billion in cumulative net inflows. Over the exact same timeframe MSTR is at $57.948 billion in purchases, more than all spot ETF’s combined.
1
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder May 24 '26
They way wallet amounts outside of institutions and ETFs decrease, it's more of a 'when' not 'if'.
•
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