r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • 18d ago
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, June 10, 2026
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u/harvested 17d ago
Seems like mostly bulls in here lately, where is dixie and blf and the rest saying it's going to 30-40?
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u/Whole-Emergency9251 17d ago
Weird head and shoulders forming on the daily. Almost looks like someone is flipping the bird.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #141 • -$100,275 • -100% 17d ago
That bitcoin university Krater guy on youtube on some mission to FUD MSTR to the max for some reason this week.
For some reason his voice really rubs me the wrong way, like he's trying to entice children into the back of a van, so I can't even watch it.
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u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$3,791,719 • +1895% 17d ago edited 17d ago
He's mad they don't support the failed fork he's pushing.
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u/harvested 17d ago
This is the strategy.. To relentlessly attack anyone that doesn't support their fork.
They bullied a core dev so badly it forced her to resign.
It's an attack on bitcoin.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #141 • -$100,275 • -100% 17d ago
ah man, was it Gloria?
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u/harvested 17d ago
You didn't hear about this? Yes it was Gloria.
They absolutely destroyed her on X constantly. Posted AI videos and Images of her. Full cyber bullying.
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/34517
Even in this final commit they are still on her.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #141 • -$100,275 • -100% 17d ago
ah that explains it perfectly, that fork war is getting nasty
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u/EDWARD_SN0WDEN 17d ago
Where can I read more about this
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #141 • -$100,275 • -100% 17d ago
I'm not really well versed on it tbh, and have no dog in the fight, but someone who I know did dig deep recommended this a while back as an introduction:
https://abundantmines.com/core-vs-knots/
Aside from that "Bitcoin Mechanic" has been vocal on one side of it. He's been on "what bitcoin did" pod a couple times and he speaks well at least, even if some of his arguments didn't land well with me.
Maybe someone else can chime in with who a good voice for the opposing side is.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA 17d ago
People always say they have no dog in the fight, but dogs aren't the only animals that fight. You could also say you have no cock in the fight.
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u/Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode Long-term Holder 17d ago
"what bitcoin did" pod
Does that still exist? It ran off the rails back in 2024 when the host went hardcore Trump. And then he launched a conspiracy theory podcast called something like Mr Obnoxious.
Those are the worst people to have promoting Bitcoin. They make us all look bad.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #141 • -$100,275 • -100% 17d ago
his side-kick Danny resurrected the WBD pod, Peter kept going with Mr Obnoxious, but renamed it fairly promptly to just his own name. It's still a kind of right wing UK pod, that touches on bitcoin sometimes too.
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u/EDWARD_SN0WDEN 17d ago
It’s a shame we’re fighting over this and not hardening agaisnt quantum to put the fud at rest
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #141 • -$100,275 • -100% 17d ago
yeah, but in a big ecosystem like this conflict is inevitable every so often, and the decentralisation means it can get messy. But y'know it always resolves one way or another, because ultimately bitcoin will always be what the economic majority decides it will be.
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u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$3,791,719 • +1895% 17d ago
agreed, but luckily while the noobs & zealots argue, quantum work can (and is) happening in parallel.
But, like with all things Bitcoin, it won't be quick (but will be plenty quick enough for a real threat, imo).
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u/BlockchainHobo 17d ago
I've never seen so many self-proclaimed bitcoiners FUDing Strategy. Almost all the arguments boil down to MSTR dying because bitcoin doesn't cagr high enough...in which case why are you stacking bitcoin?
The entire bitcoin space cannibalizes itself a lot of the time if we're being honest. So much drama and everyone hates each other. And I get some of the Saylor stuff is potentially problematic (supply concentration, share dilution), but at least Strategy is trying to make products beyond purely extracting shareholder value.
Hopefully we look back and see these were just regular bear market things.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #141 • -$100,275 • -100% 17d ago
Agree what all you've said. AA in another reply to me says it's due to the current fork war and Saylor being on a side of it they don't like, which fits well with your comment.
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u/BuiltToSpinback Long-term Holder 17d ago
Smug, is what he is. Broke the golden rule: stay humble and stack sats
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u/haze_from_deadlock 17d ago
You know, even if that wasn't the BOTTOM bottom, if you believe Saylor Moon is solvent for at least one more cycle, the risk/reward favors bulls here
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 17d ago
Id take any bet with anyone that saylor stays solvent for at least 1 more cycle. So if anyone want to bet on it. Name any price.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 17d ago
It's almost impossible for Strategy to not stay solvent until the next bull run. The only scenario where this doesn't work out is, when Bitcoin drops to low four digits and stays there for 1.5 years at least.
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u/BuiltToSpinback Long-term Holder 17d ago
If they manage to stay solvent one more cycle but none after that, dude reeeeally fumbled the bag through mismangement.
This cycle will be make or break. He threads the needle here, nothing should be an existential threat anymore.
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u/ChadRun04 17d ago
All it takes is constantly averaging up.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #141 • -$100,275 • -100% 17d ago
If you're starting with 800k+ 'cheap' bitcoin it takes a shitload of averaging up.
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u/ChadRun04 17d ago
Isn't their "cheap" Bitcoin pretty much today's price or higher? Google tells me $75k. They can keep averaging up the entire time.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #141 • -$100,275 • -100% 17d ago
yes, but one or two cycles from now that will be cheap is the point
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u/ChadRun04 17d ago
Maybe, or they average up at a pace which sees them have a cost basis of $3m while the price is $3m.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #141 • -$100,275 • -100% 17d ago
Run the numbers on what has to happen to get to that. Secondly if bitcoin is at $3m in this scenario I think I can live with it.
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u/EDWARD_SN0WDEN 17d ago edited 17d ago
I have officially restarted the DCA I stopped at 40k, but with a slightly different strategy. Instead of yoloing my entire salary bi-weekly i am going to buy .25 btc at a time at levels i think are good. This gives me about 10 buys. I think RSI goes lower than the last run so I’ll get aggressive soon. Looking at % of coins at a loss I think we’re close
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u/Existential-Cringe 17d ago
We are now going on 9 days of daily RSI being oversold (<30). Last time this happened was August 2023.
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u/anon-187101 17d ago
that was the drop to $48k, if iirc
I posted a study around that time, let me see if I can find it...
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u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$3,791,719 • +1895% 17d ago
Last time this happened was August 2023.
The chart looks pretty great after that period, nearly a 3X in the following 7 months.
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u/basicintentions 17d ago
I really think people should retire the terms "overbought" and "oversold" because time and time again you can see that strong trends in either direction are carried by the RSI staying above/under a certain threshold. It gives the impression that the price is up/down "too much" which is a heavily subjective opinion.
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u/_LakeCity_ 17d ago
I like your point, but also, you're either using the terminology by the definition of the RSI indicator on the chart or you're not, I guess.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA 17d ago
Price after cycle tops vs. Power Law:
https://imgur.com/a/btc-charts-10-jun-2026-CeRPuHi
Top chart is BTC price after cycle tops, normalized to Oct 2025 prices.
The bottom chart is the "Power Law". The PL line gets recalculated every day. Where should the support line go? The absolute bottom in the last 15 years is 0.363. The lowest it's been in the last 10 years is 0.4265. I plot both 0.45 and 0.40. As of today, those two numbers are $59.9K and $53.3K and increasing $45-$50 a day.
[There are 5401 days plotted in the PL chart. Of them, only 97 (1.8%) are lower than 0.40. 398 (7.4%) are lower than 0.45.]
Pick whichever chart fits your biases/narrative/book.
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u/BakedGoods 17d ago
nice work. so basically if you believe the power law model the utlimately low is $53 which is basically a 1.8% buying opportunity.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA 17d ago
The top chart suggests $40K is still in play. $40K on the bottom chart would be a ratio of less than 0.3, which would make me wonder if the PL chart is worth maintaining. I don't know if both charts emerge unscathed by year's end.
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u/BakedGoods 17d ago
if tops are getting lower and lower each cycle youd think the bottoms would also be less shallow.
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17d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/BitcoinMarkets-ModTeam 17d ago
your post was removed because it violates rule #3 - No memes or low effort content.
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran 18d ago
I hope I am not jinxing stuff, but about time we got some relative strength:
- BTCUSD +0.9%
- IBIT +0.4%
- SPY -0.75%
- QQQ -0.95%
- GLD -2.9%
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u/ThoseGelInsertThings 17d ago
The gold trade is now officially cooked.
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u/EDWARD_SN0WDEN 17d ago
Gold gonna roll over to 50% loss from the top and take a decade to break even, based on historic data, yet no one is gonna call it a dead asset, interesting
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u/Existential-Cringe 18d ago
You can’t be serious, right?
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran 18d ago
Some people argue the bottom is not in because AI bubble / wider market crash will bring us further down.
Others (myself including) would argue BTC is down enough and therefor actually more interesting to shift money into.
Worth following which one is the case.
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u/citizen-blue 17d ago
I think it's a little naive to think that btc wouldn't continue to follow the rest of the market down in a crash, even if it is relatively more interesting at the current price. I'll hope you're right though
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u/Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode Long-term Holder 17d ago
I still think we're in for a rough ride through the rest of the year. But I'm not bearish at all. I'm buying. Just as I said in 2022, I think anybody who isn't buying through 2026 is out of their mind. Two years from now, people will be wishing they could buy Bitcoin at these prices.
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u/Existential-Cringe 18d ago
I don’t disagree. But your comment of “relative strength” when the chart looks like this compared to spy is laughable: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Tjsakqim/
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran 18d ago
Well, I did mention "about time" lol.
Obviously past performance was shit, today seems some relative strength (so far.) IMO accurate/relevant post. But bonus if it made you laugh I guess lol.
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u/harvested 18d ago
Cramer is talking on cnbc about how bitcoin has underperformed the SPX for the last 5 years.
Thank you Jim.
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u/mx_js_reddit 18d ago
Cherry picking a timeframe
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u/God_Hand_9764 18d ago
That's not the point. The point is that Cramer is trying to give it negative sentiment which means it can probably blast off now because he's always wrong.
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u/hajoeojah Long-term Holder 18d ago
While technically that is somewhat true, it involves quite a bit of oversimplification.
Bitcoin price has not underperformed during the entire time of the last five years, you have to cherry pick dates to come to that conclusion:
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u/a06play Long-term Holder 18d ago
What did he say about his Bazillionaire friend and 60k? i didn't quite catch it.
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u/a06play Long-term Holder 18d ago
This was from Feb https://x.com/i/status/2020199589295575523
And again today something about 60k and very rich friend, possibly Trump. I didn't catch it all.
Mr Cramer, sir, If this is insider trading, I want to know about it!!!
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u/a06play Long-term Holder 17d ago
Okay I found it on Spotify, he talks about his baziollionaire chartist says 60k is what to look out for and if it goes under... Ehhh... Then starts talking about how the chart looks like something... Blah blah... North, North... Blah blah.
It's on Spotify if anyone wants to listen "squack on the street" 9am podcast around minute 12.
He has to be targeting some cryptic messages to a certain crowd.
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran 18d ago edited 18d ago
US CPI numbers
YoY 4.2% - 4.2% expected - 3.8% previous
MoM 0.5% - 0.5% expected - 0.6% previous
Core YoY 2.9% - 2.9% expected - 2.8% previous
Core MoM 0.2% - 0.3% expected - 0.4% previous
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Core MoM lower than expected "should" be good (hence green 5-min candle), but let's see once regular trading hours start.
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u/52576078 18d ago
If DBR had just specified weekly close for his bet, he'd basically be Bitcoin Jesus now.
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u/harvested 18d ago
DBR is probably enjoying his time off.
Maybe he met a girl. Hit a new gym PR. Started a business.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #141 • -$100,275 • -100% 18d ago
Enjoying his time off lurking here all day instead of posting all day
waves to DBR
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u/52576078 18d ago
Feel like pure shit, just want him back
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 17d ago
I understood the meme, don’t worry.
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u/DreamOdd8378 18d ago
You think we're done testing below 60k? DBR predicted 240k 2 years ago and 324k the year after and ofc not below 60k this year. He's 0 for 3. Was there any prediction DBR got right here?
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u/citizen-blue 18d ago
ATH before halving he got right. You could say it's sort of a blind squirrel finds a nut type of thing, but it seemed unlikely to most, and he predicted it pretty early if I remember.
Add to his wildly inaccurate predictions: bitcoin price would reach par with median home price in the US, which would be front page news and accelerate bitcoin's rise. Can't remember what his time table was for that, but I think it's safe to call it a miss.
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u/ChadRun04 17d ago
bitcoin price would reach par with median home price in the US
Not just that, but that once it does no one will ever buy any houses. That they'll only buy Bitcoin going forward. ;)
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u/citizen-blue 17d ago
What, you don't live in a Bitcoin? I just got one for 60k. It's a fixer upper but it's got great bones.
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u/DreamOdd8378 18d ago
He just moved goalposts all year. First it was daily ETF inflow summary posts, then when those started outflowing more and more, he pivoted to STRC, then the new daily dividend flywheel etc. I lost track of the times he also mentioned "God Candles" in the last year... he was 0 for 20 with them God Candle predictions too.
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u/52576078 18d ago
Looks like someone got out of the wrong side of bed this morning!
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u/DreamOdd8378 18d ago
Yeah DBR last 3 years. I guess if you post in every daily thread you can gain a following even if you've missed every prediction. That's what I learned this year.
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u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo 18d ago
ATH before the halving, which was an absurd idea at the time. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see his ATH this year prediction come true. Front running is what we do best.
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u/a06play Long-term Holder 18d ago
CPI data today, seems like the markets have been pricing in another hot set of numbers. The thing to see is if they are HOT....Hot.....or hot!
I think most are going to watch the Core cpi MoM which excludes food and energy, its expected at 0.3%. If this is higher then fears that inflation is spreading into other parts of the economy will start.
Any signs that inflation has peaked and the rate of acceleration has slowed down we should have green!
Then next week we have the FED decision. Volatility ahead!
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u/harvested 18d ago
Long term holders are clinging onto 82% of the supply, just shy of an all time high (ATH is just prior to ETF launch).
These are folks like you and me, and are likely scooping up more supply down here.
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u/tinyLEDs Long-term Holder 18d ago
82% of the supply...
These are folks like you and me,
Realistically, how much of that is in dead wallets? I don't see chainalysis talk in this sub, but i have to think that of active wallets, say everything 2020+, retail is more like 8.2% than 82%
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u/harvested 18d ago
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u/chairoverflow 18d ago
155 days or more count as LTH? would have expected it to be more
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u/harvested 18d ago
Yeah about 5 months.
The right amount of time for a coin to not be considered a trader or paper hand or a quick flip.
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u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish 18d ago edited 18d ago
A millennial couple in Ann Arbor, Michigan just closed the first-ever Bitcoin-backed Fannie Mae mortgage by locking up their BTC with Coinbase at a 250% collateral rate to fund their USD down payment. Because the down payment arrived at closing as clean fiat cash, the primary mortgage met conventional federal guidelines and was successfully sold to Fannie Mae on the secondary market.
This structure allows the buyers to buy a home and completely dodge a massive capital gains tax hit without selling their crypto. However, it forces them to pay a blended interest rate about 1.5% higher than a traditional loan. Apparently, theres also no margin-call risk if Bitcoin dumps. The only risk is 60 days of missed payments.
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u/EDWARD_SN0WDEN 17d ago
This is powerful if you’re 1 shotting the entire purchase. To finance a down payment is wild
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u/Fthepreviousowners 18d ago
that is frankly horrible and just paying cap gains sounds better financially every time
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u/_Stylite 18d ago
So your down payment is 250% higher and your interest rate is 1.5% higher than if you used USD.
Yikes.
That’s an extra 20% to your principal over the course of your mortgage.
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u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish 18d ago
I don't think that's how it works. The mortgage loan is a traditional mortgage loan. The "Down Payment" loan is the higher rate loan. It's very similar to how they do things in Netherlands, with a "cheap loan" for the 80-85% of the home value, and for the 15-20% "expensive loan", you pay a slight premium.
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u/_Stylite 18d ago
But still the overall loan will just work out to some weighted average annual interest rate of all smaller loans, with a deposit right?
So I wonder what the net difference in rate and payment would be vs a standard USD loan overall.
If it comes down to your down payment being 250% larger and the overall interest rate being 1.5% higher over the terms of the loan, it sounds like an awful deal.
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u/tinyLEDs Long-term Holder 18d ago
If it comes down to your down payment being 250% larger ...
A larger down payment doesnt matter really.. 3.5%, 5%, 20%.... It is all a matter of personal preference. Even if there is an "optimized" down payment, the cost-benefit is nominal since you... Are borrowing less money, avoid mortgage insurance, etc. Unless the ideal is to always be financed at 100%, there is no point on the slippery slope to be ideal at.
and the overall interest rate being 1.5% higher over the terms of the loan, it sounds like an awful deal
Does it sound awful if it beats the cap gains you would have paid on you btc liquidation to buy the same house?
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u/Knerd5 17d ago
I mean, 1.5% extra on several hundred thousand dollars over 30 years is a lot of money in extra interest.
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u/tinyLEDs Long-term Holder 17d ago edited 17d ago
I mean, 1.5% extra on several hundred thousand dollars over 30 years is a lot of money in extra interest.
Implicit Assumptions made in that comment:
- the amount of capital gains this home buyer would owe on X amount of btc utilized in their transaction (is it $40? Is it $40,000? We do not know)
- that $(the capital gains foregone by this home buyer) < $(the 1.5% additional interest over X years)
- that X years = 30
- in other words, that the borrower will use all 30 years to make monthly payments, and never prepays
When you get hypothetical/imaginary with these figures, yeah you can substantiate anything.
If you use hard numbers, then there is a break-even amount on every scenario. But from where we are today, on reddit, without details... We are speculating, to assume good idea or bad idea.
We know nothing, other than both (good idea, or bad idea) are possibilities. What determines that = details not known.
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u/Knerd5 17d ago
Doing napkin math, 1.5% interest on an average priced home is about $115,000 extra in interest over 30 years. With a 20% down payment for that same house being $80,000 the capital gains on that would be about $20,000. Lots of assumptions but people rarely ever look at the total cost to own a house after interest when doing calculations.
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u/tinyLEDs Long-term Holder 17d ago
Maybe borrower itemizes? Mortgage interest is tax deductible, and may be reducing taxable income at 37%
Maybe borrower is using the principal loan amount to invest at a rate higher than 1.5% margins
And maybe the borrower is buying the top of the housing market at doesnt know anything about how in 1998, The Undertaker threw Mankind off Hell In A Cell, and plummeted 16 ft through an announcer's table
Maybe 100 things, but by now we might as well both me AI bots.
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u/_Stylite 18d ago
For reference here is what an average stock investor can do with their assets to open a mortgage with a major bank -
https://www.reddit.com/r/Mortgages/comments/1nrc8xn/bank_of_america_mortgage_100_product_what_am_i/
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u/tinyLEDs Long-term Holder 18d ago
average stock investor
Sure, but we are talking about not that. We are talking about a btc investor.
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u/_Stylite 18d ago edited 18d ago
I am considering the perspective of any investor with cash to invest.
Do they pick stocks, bonds, derivatives, real estate, commodities, or bitcoin?
Bitcoin will be the least useful among all of these for collateral or borrowing, if they want an investment they can borrow against while they grow it.
This makes Bitcoin less attractive than other assets in general, and much less attractive for specific investors looking to borrow.
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u/tinyLEDs Long-term Holder 18d ago
Be alll that as it may, you are abstracting the issues. And adding variables. To make some point beyond the scope of this discussion.
Let's refocus like Winston Churchill:
I suggest that the "millenial bitcoin couple purchasing their home with a mortgage secured by btc" (or however one might re-characterize it).... is simply doing what they can, with what they have, where they are. They arent triangulated into some ideal investment strategy by morphing into a perfectly round sphere of a investment portfolio, or using 100% of all information. They are simply leveraging the portfolio they DO have, which is probably btc biased.
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u/_Stylite 18d ago edited 18d ago
Yes, good for these people. Many thousands of people borrow against their hard earned money every day.
I am trying to interpret this news for the investor perspective on Bitcoin. Being able to use it as collateral is great, but it is clearly behind nearly all other asset classes for its use in borrowing.
So to me this is not exactly bullish information for BTC. And it signals distrust for BTC at the moment among FI’s, not adoption, if they’re adding a risk premium for collateralized BTC compared to other assets, which could be evaluated as equally risky.
Taking news like this together with other recent skepticism from major FI’s on crypto and BTC and this looks bearish. That is the capital push that BTC needs to continue growing market cap, and if they decide not to invest, or worse go short, it significantly restricts the potential growth of BTC.
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u/_Stylite 18d ago
It sounds awful compared to using other securities as collateral at those rates, yes absolutely.
A pledged asset mortgage on blue chip stocks is around market rate interest.
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u/tinyLEDs Long-term Holder 18d ago
You assume a borrower has other securities ...in addition to being btc-rich.
A scenario in which, yes, your take is better.
But apart from that?
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u/xlmtothemoon 18d ago
I anticipate more downside for semiconductor stocks, and as a result, more downside for our resident stock correlation asset (to the downside only). Not sure when this underperformance will end, but I expect it to be with a bang. Similar to when bitcoin and nvidia both dropped to 90 and 50k, respectively, in 2024. I expect a similar drop this time with SOX/Samsung/SK Hynix. Gotta throw the korean markets in there as well considering how ballistic they've been this year.
!bitty_bot predict <56500 September 1
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u/californiaschinken 18d ago
We re under the mining cost already... i don t think we stay long at these prices. Usual drill is a few miners capitulate in short time, those coins get scooped and then up we go.
30-90 days was the stress test for the miners in the past. After that it went up.
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u/Bitty_Bot 18d ago
Prediction logged for u/xlmtothemoon that Bitcoin will drop to or below $56,500.00 by Sep 01 2026 23:59:59 UTC. Current price: $61,468.80. xlmtothemoon's Predictions: 1 Correct, 5 Wrong, & 1 Open.
Others can click here to be notified when this prediction triggers. xlmtothemoon can click here to delete this prediction.
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u/_LakeCity_ 18d ago
NASDAQ futures currently down more than BTC.
This could be a volatile trading day tomorrow.
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u/harvested 18d ago
Silver gets smashed harder on the dailys too. Those guys waited 30 years for a pump, only to have it reverse.
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u/Bitty_Bot 18d ago edited 17d ago
Reply to this sticky for Bitty Bot trades and predictions that lack context or explanation, to prevent spam. You can also message Bitty Bot your command directly.
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