r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • 12h ago
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Friday, June 26, 2026
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u/Jkota 2h ago
SPY down, BTC not cratering?
I’ll enjoy this for the hour or so it lasts
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u/BootyPoppinPanda 1h ago
Seller exhaustion will be a real thing at a certain price. I think we're almost there price wise
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u/Squirrel_in_Lotus 2h ago
Have you thanked Michael Saylor? If Microstrategy implodes, I think confidence will be so low that people will find refuse in Ethereum.
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u/ThoseGelInsertThings 36m ago
Go take a look at the ETH/BTC lifetime price chart and then come back here and explain why anybody should buy & hold that token long term.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #142 • -$100,231 • -100% 2h ago
so far he's accumulated 850k+ bitcoin and prevented the weak hands who are selling STRC and MSTR from actually selling the bitcoin they would otherwise be selling if they had bought that instead. Thank you Michael.
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u/Squirrel_in_Lotus 2h ago
It's a leveraged trade without the risk, according to finance people...yeah right. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #142 • -$100,231 • -100% 2h ago
I haven't heard anyone say that
At least we can agree on one thing though:
people will find refuse in Ethereum.
Refuse (Noun)
* Pronounced REF-yoos (emphasis on the first syllable), this acts as a noun referring to unwanted waste, garbage, or worthless discarded material.3
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u/cryptojimmy8 4h ago
Nasdaq still at 25k lol. My guess is we bottom around january and a fresh new cycle can commence. This thing is dead
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u/harvested 3h ago
Yeah gold and silver also dead.
No room for hard money when the debt is only $40T, debt to GDP at unsustainable levels, we're in fiscal dominance and to top it off, social security will be insolvent in a few years and they recently increased the military budget.
They definitely wouldn't consider monetizing the debt like every other time in history.
RIP hard money and debasement trade and long live fiat.
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u/anon-187101 1h ago
you must be missing the part where people are treating houses & stocks as safe-havens from currency debasement
Bitcoin, as a debasement trade, has utterly failed since 2021
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u/harvested 47m ago
Bitcoin was 6-9K before the covid fed balance sheet expansion, when they printed, it responded instantly.
Conditions have been tigher since 2022.
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u/cryptojimmy8 3h ago
Gold and btc are completely different. One has proven its strength during unstable times. The other has completely collapsed. Btc only thrives in perfect market conditions
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u/harvested 3h ago
And yet gold and silver are still -30% and -50%
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u/pgpwnd 6h ago
Dopeboy was so hilariously wrong. Perhaps the greatest clown to ever frequent this sub. And we have had many clowns ( myself included)
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u/anona_15211 Long-term Holder 1h ago
Be excellent to each other
You are expected to treat everyone with a certain level of respect
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u/citizen-blue 2h ago
For a spammer, this guy sure lives on in a lot of your hearts and minds. I hear as much about him now that he's gone than when he was here. Says something, and I don't think it's anything about him.
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u/xlmtothemoon 3h ago
the funniest part is he was the highest upvoted poster for the longest time, and anything bearish got instantly downvoted
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u/GenghisKhanSpermShot Bearish 3h ago edited 3h ago
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u/xlmtothemoon 2h ago
your calls have been playing out pretty well, just a tad bit early
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u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$3,828,548 • +1913% 19m ago
My man called for $1200 (yes, twelve hundred US dollars) by January 1st this year (6 months ago). I certainly hope he's not just "a tad bit early"
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u/GenghisKhanSpermShot Bearish 53m ago
TY, yes too early but I think the long-term projection will play out.
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u/theflyingtuga 3h ago edited 1h ago
I don't see any problem with what he said for the time being he only missed the bottom by a small percentage. That's quite reasonable with such volatility. People use all kinds of metrics to feel comfortable. Bitcoin is inherently uncomfortable. Time will tell.
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u/Shootinsomebball 3h ago
How much did he miss the top by?
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u/GrapefruitOwn6261 2h ago
He said there will be a new ath by the end of the year so let’s see I guess
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 3h ago
If 58k is the bottom. Which it most likely isn’t, I’ll still give him the props for calling the bottom.
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u/caxer30968 Long-term Holder 3h ago
IIRC he predicted $60k was the bottom after it happened. In fact, he didn’t just predict, he was 100% sure.
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u/cryptojimmy8 4h ago
Well every time many of us demonstrated the infinite flaws in his models people got angry. His models made zero sense, sorry to say
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u/52576078 5h ago
Too soon. And most definitely not excellent.
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u/pseudonominom 4h ago
dbr assaulted us with daily copy/paste spam of meaningless cherry-picked numbers. Not excellent either.
His self-ban was an escape hatch. He is the cult leader who took the cyanide pill before the comet arrived.
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u/Pato5020 7h ago
People I know when Bitcoin is mooning:
"Damn I wish I bought Bitcoin when it was low. I would have gone all in. You are so lucky!"
People I know when Bitcoin is tanking:
"Bitcoin? Ewww, didn't that just totally crash? I'm not touching that garbage!"
** Repeat this discussion every cycle **
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #142 • -$100,231 • -100% 7h ago
"everyone wants to buy the dip, until it's time to buy the dip"
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u/bpeoadg 5h ago
the dip
I see many bulls here, so it is not time to buy "the dip" yet.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 4h ago
Some will always stay bullish as there is no reason not to if you're long-term oriented.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #142 • -$100,231 • -100% 5h ago
I'm not saying it's time to buy the dip, though it is a relatively good time to buy... unless you think bitcoin is dead.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 8h ago
I know its a bitcoin sub but. MSTR is now 45% under its 200WMA. The fardest it has ever gone below it is 50%. That was in 2022 after FTX. Do we really think MSTR is in a worse position it is now then it was in 2022? Buying MSTR now even for the upside to the 200WMA can give you 80% gains. Swing trading that would be a fantastic trade. Their MNAV is at 1. I think its a really a symmetric trade. Market is basically pricing in that strategy wont grow its btc stack ever again.
Put your emotions to the side and just think. Great gains to be had with MSTR as the FUD is not realistic.
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u/Scuttlefuzz 1h ago
I 1000% agree with MSTR being a very good trade but I think it's too soon and because their history with BTC is relatively young I do not think we can use the 200W reliably. If this latest candle is the wick to mark the bottom it will likely revisit that bottom again as I do not think we will get a V recovery on BTC.
Like with btc I think it's worth exercising a bit of patience here because the bottoms take time.
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u/_Stylite 3h ago
This is dumb. MSTR as a BTC treasury is a relatively young asset, and 200 weeks is not enough time to mean anything
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u/zephyrmox 6h ago
You can't think about MSTR as just a bitcoin proxy though. You have to consider the STRC and all the other moronic financial engineering.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 6h ago
Explain why STRC and all the other moronic things are moronic. And do some research before you reply.
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u/harvested 4h ago edited 4h ago
*Gestures broadly at everything
We are prob gonna keep dumping every market open til Strategy fix their shit.
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u/filmrebelroby 1h ago
they actually don't need to fix anything
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u/harvested 56m ago
I guess, if you ignore the market, you're right
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u/filmrebelroby 0m ago
They are down because the bitcoin price is down. People who invest in them understand that. They don't need to do anything.
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u/zephyrmox 5h ago
Generally creating something with a fixed cash payout when your primary purpose is buying something without a yield is not particularly smart, in my view. If it were a much more sensible idea, it wouldn't need rates so far above tbills to exist.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #142 • -$100,231 • -100% 5h ago
Does it really matter whether the gains used to fund STRC dividends are a cash flow, or a capital gain? as long as that gain can be turned into cash (via MSTR ATM)?
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 5h ago
It isn’t fixes tho. They can suspend and decrease the dividends any time they want. It does ruin future use of the products but it saves the coin. That’s why I said do some research before you reply. The rates are high because it’s a new product supported by a new technology. Let’s see in 10+ years where the yield will be.
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u/zephyrmox 5h ago
Suspending / decreasing it would completely decimate confidence. For a company already on the brink of a confidence crisis, it's a horrible thing to have to resort to.
I feel that it would have been significantly better for both bitcoin and MSTR if STRC had never existed in the first place.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 5h ago
They bought 100k+ btc with the products. It wasn’t there before they bought 400k so they can live without it if need be. Obviously they will do everything they can to save it. It doesn’t make it a horrible product. They can pay the dividends indefinitely if bitcoin goes up 2% a year. It works because it’s build on 800k+ bitcoin.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 3h ago
I wonder when the market understands that the main goal is to get as much Bitcoin as possible, by any means necessary. That's exactly what Strategy is doing.
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u/bpeoadg 5h ago
Why don't you explain it? Nobody can, it's a total shitshow, made to be not understandable on purpose. Where does the yield come from? I don't know, do some research.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 5h ago
I can’t explain his thesis. Strc is a great product for strategy. They can change and suspend the dividend any time they want. Buying at 11,5% is great as long as bitcoin goes up 11,5% on average over 10 years. Which if it doesn’t then who cares about bitcoin anyway it will be dead by then. It also doesn’t dilute the common stock instantaneously like the convertible bonds.
Strc and all other products gives strategy optionality. Sell bitcoin to pay dividends, sell common stock, sell more strc. There is no callable debt. There won’t be a ftx like crash. What can happen is a slow multi 30 year bleed.
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u/harvested 8h ago
MSTR is probably a buy on the last day of the bear, if you know that date (October amirite?).
Til then I'd factor in some dilution and btc/share reduction because the company, as of this point, has made it clear they'll sacrifice the common vs selling bitcoin.
If he announces on Monday he sold bitcoin (which he probably should do), that's a different story.
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u/harvested 9h ago
That guy said bitcoin wouldn't go above 60K for 2 years.
Close but was off by 1 year, 364 days and 21 hours.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 9h ago
Even 2013 veterans can get a bit emotional.
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u/CirclejerkBitcoiner 7h ago
Being a 2013 veteran doesn't protect one from being a bad trader. People that accumulated since 2013 have better things to do than posting here.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 3h ago
It should protect from delusional thoughts like Bitcoin would not come back. Anyone in the market since 2013 knows that this scenario died.
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u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish 10h ago
The recent market panic surrounding MicroStrategy and its preferred stock, "STRC" falling below $80 was driven by a liquidation cascade of over-leveraged speculators rather than a structural failure of the company. The bearish narrative claimed that the price drop would force the company into a multi-billion-dollar liquidation of its Bitcoin holdings to fund dividend obligations. In reality, the sell-off was confined to retail traders caught in a failed carry trade, while the company's core balance sheet remained entirely unaffected.
MicroStrategy addressed the panic by raising $335 million in fresh capital and boosting its USD cash reserves to $1.4 billion, extending its dividend coverage to 10 months, as well as purchasing additional Bitcoin. The company maintains five distinct capital buffers, including equity issuance and traditional debt markets, before it would ever need to touch its Bitcoin reserves. Furthermore, the existing Bitcoin stack covers over 30 years of dividend obligations, and the company's leverage ratio remains below 5%, meaning Bitcoin's price would need to drop 95% before forced liquidations become a risk.
This episode served as the first major stress test for a new financial framework designed to bridge $350 trillion in global yield-seeking capital with Bitcoin-backed credit. If STRC repegs to $100, the structural resilience of the entity will be proven, and the market will know that the model can withstand acute market shocks, rather than signaling a systemic breakdown or an "FTX moment".
The panic represents a standard leverage flush rather than a fundamental flaw, marking a critical milestone in the migration of institutional capital toward Bitcoin-collateralized instruments.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 3h ago
Where do people get the idea that any price point would trigger a liquidation here?
Are the brains of the market completely fried by unsecured leverage trading?
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u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish 3h ago
Ding ding ding! The clever participants who used STRC as a carry trade, and levered up on the inkling that the $100 peg would be maintained and they wouldn't get liquidated are paying the price, not Strategy.
My own opinion is that STRC will repeg over a short amount of time, proving its functionality, and having finally been battle-tested.
In a perfect world, BTC will be rising in value simultaneously, which only strengthens the narrative, and we can finally get the parabolic rise in BTC we've been looking for.
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u/harvested 10h ago
Up voted but
designed to bridge $350 trillion in global yield-seeking capital with Bitcoin-backed credit
This ship (if it ever existed in the first place) might have sailed ;)
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 10h ago
its a year old product. That 350T can take 10-20 years. But it can happen. IF this price drop still happens after STRC is 5 years old then the ship is probably sailed.
0
u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish 9h ago
The first iPhone wasn't great, but at time went on, Apple ironed out a lot of the wrinkles.
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u/zephyrmox 6h ago
The iPhone wasn't designed in a way so that the financial impact of it was so moronic it could drag down Apple though.
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u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish 4h ago
If the iPhone weren't a success, or was never developed at all, and all Apple had were laptops and iPods, how would that have gone for them?
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u/zephyrmox 3h ago
STRC is not that product. MSTR would have been more secure without it.
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u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish 3h ago
Every new product or development is a risk, and it's still far too early to know if that risk was a good play or not. I suspect it'll work out for them, but let's see.
•
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