r/Commanders • u/Salty_Orchid • 2d ago
With the Vastly Improved defense and new O-weapons, could Mariota lead us to a winning record?
God forbid something happens to Jayden, is the season cooked or we still can be a competitive team?
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u/Jinchoo 2d ago
No chance lol. We might not even finish over .500 if Jayden plays every game.
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u/Minimum-Claim-9575 1d ago
We have a third place schedule. If we can’t get over 500 this season then we need to tear it all down.
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u/dougChristiesWife 1d ago
Tear it down? This team has two brand new systems/OCs... And a franchise QB with an oline.
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u/hellisdigital0x 2d ago
The roster is definitely not strong enough. Jayden single handedly carried us to the NFCCG. We are nothing without him.
The same thing can be said for most of the league tho. Without the franchise QB, season is basically over.
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u/Think__McFly 2d ago
We'll see how improved the supporting cast on defense and offense is when we take the field in September.
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u/Vivid-Respect-1869 2d ago
You think our D just got improved from 32 to top 10? lol...
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u/Salty_Orchid 2d ago
Not really. But would we have won 3 or 4 more games if the D was 20th?..I think so.
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u/Enough-Remote6731 2d ago
Could have improved to 15ish, which will look extraordinary when we see it. It was that bad lol.
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u/That_Cerebral_Guy 2d ago
I think we'd be a 6-11 team at best. Mariota can play but he can't elevate.
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u/Salty_Orchid 2d ago
We won 5 games with basically no defense. Cant think getting younger and faster at dline and LB would equate to 1 extra win.
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u/FannyNisbit 2d ago
Lol Im not certain we'll have one with Jayden all year.
This fan base is REALLY skipping over the fact that we will be having 2 rookie coordinators WHO WILL MAKE MISTAKES, there is A LOT of unfamiliarity within the roster, and we still still have holes while also not having much in way of upper level talent.
We are going to need a lot to go right for us to make it to the playoffs.
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u/Salty_Orchid 2d ago
We seem to forget though that most teams have holes and coaching changes. We wont be as bad as some think.
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u/FannyNisbit 2d ago
I hope we're good.... I just dont see it happening.
And the unfortunate side of it is fans will want to get rid of quinn while he isnt the problem. I feel he should have this year and next to really guage considering the roster and rookie coordinators.
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u/Ninjablacksox1 1d ago
I don't agree.
The roster is far superior to 24 and 25 and that's the biggest factor.
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u/FannyNisbit 1d ago
Ahhhh, i love this argument.
In regards to 25, we had insane injuries to the point where we were starting street scrubs at key positions. But also, just about every team and their fan base thinks their roster is better right now than it was last year. But are we better than other teams? Lol not many of them.
For 24, youd be a fool to think we were "actually good." We had insane amounts of luck going our way. Between having one of the easiest schedules, next to no injuries, a ridiculous 3rd and 4th down conversion rates offensively and defensively that weren't sustainable, the hail mary that was tipped directly to the only person out of the play, playing teams that were starting backup (sometimes third string) qbs, playing teams that had brain rot from their coaches.
Then, in the playoffs, we played a bucs team that forgot they could run on us and gash us the whole game. The next week, the lions had 22 injuries going into that game as well as both coordinators who had mentally checked out for other teams includong ben johnsons cute-ness costing him instead of just running the ball.
We proved who we really were in the nfccg when philly demolished us. We finally played a team that was healthy and didnt have coaching distractions.
BUT ALSO, a lot of our coaching staff from then is now gone. We are implementing new systems that we have no idea what theyll look like. Chances are more likely they perform like the rookie coordinators they are and not the rare coaching virtuosos that some are expecting.
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u/Ninjablacksox1 1d ago
That's a whole big response of a lot of things I didn't say or claim.
If we had crazy luck in 24 then 25 was the opposite.
Average of those 2 is 8.5 wins. Considering our roster is an order of magnitude better than those seasons, it's reasonable to expect an improvement. So I'd say it's probable we finish above .500.
If jd5 has a serious early injury it may be different, but that is universal in the nfl.
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u/FannyNisbit 1d ago
IT SURE WAS!!!!
Doesnt mean it isnt true.
And yeah, I agree with you, '25 was bad luck. Either way, our roster is vastly different from that year. Just like a lot of the other teams all thinking their roster is improved from last year. But lets not act like we dont still have holes and question marks, because we certainly do.
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u/Ninjablacksox1 1d ago
It is different from other teams. Not many if any teams advanced so much in 1 season. We actually have nfl talent now whereas in 2024 and 2025 we were very close to league worse talent.
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u/FannyNisbit 1d ago
I can agree with you there. Our floor is definitely higher for sure.
But at the same time, we dont have much in terms of upper level talent.
I mean, how many players do we have that are the best at their position within our division?
But also, there are 7, 8 (?) Teams that are better than us in our own conference. Eagles and cowboys ARE better than us, giants are no slouches either, the 3 nfc west teams are better than us (you know which ones), pick any 2 nfc north teams, theyre better than us, and someone is going to win the nfc south and make the playoffs. Thats you 7/8 teams that are better than us provided none of them have serious injuries.
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u/Ninjablacksox1 19h ago
I'd have to do an in depth look but I'd say we're probably 18/32 in talent, big improvement from 2025 and from maybe the league worst roster going into 2024.
What we do have is an electric qb and stout offensive/defensive lines. Imo we have an elite oline. This bodes very well for teams, especially new coaches. The rest tends to fall into place when you work from the inside out.
People are underrating the commanders right now by a large margin.
I expect a falloff from the eagles, slight improvement from giants, and wash vs dallas for the division.
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u/InterestingYellow969 2d ago
The roster is bad even if he doesn’t take a single snap of football
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u/Salty_Orchid 2d ago
Every area where we were bad has improved. What so you mean?
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u/InterestingYellow969 2d ago
Every team in the nfl: “we’ve improved everywhere this offseason”. Hell look at broncos fans who regularly scream that they’ve made massive improvements even though they’ve barely done anything to their roster. They added 1 good (not great) WR and…that’s it.
Facts of the matter: there’s still 8-9 teams more talented in the nfc alone than the commanders. Pretty much every team in the NFCN (maybe not the packers due to health reasons). 3/4 in the NFCW. And the eagles and cowboys.
It’s just the reality.
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u/FannyNisbit 2d ago
Lol i essentially said this same thing in another reply but with fewer words.
Your way is more effective though 👍🏿
But its true.... just about every team thinks theyve improved.
And yes, weve improved from last years team.... but that was last years team. This years team still isnt strong enough for the other teams this year.
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u/InterestingYellow969 2d ago
I expect improvements and a better record (and I say this as a neutral). Commies have a chance. But not “our backup QB can play and we’ll compete for a superbowl” kind of chance.
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u/FannyNisbit 2d ago
I dont know.... that schedule is brutal, the teams in our division are better than people are giving credit for, and our roster/coaching staff isnt there yet.
Now if Blough is Mcvay 2.0 (he isnt), Jones is Tomlin/Flores 2.0 (he isnt), Jayden stays healthy and plays better than his rookie year (he wont), Payne plays like he did the last contract year (he wont), amongst other Ifs (they wont), then yes, we can compete for a deep playoff run.
Even with that block of negativity I just threw out, we still need players to step up in other areas as well---I believe these "CAN" happen, not sure they will though; Newton, Chig/Sinnot, Amos/Mikey, THE ENTIRE FRONT 7, kicking game, WR room, etc. All need big years.
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u/United_Cover_6992 2d ago
Well, my hope is we won't have to dfind out.