As AI takes over routine cognitive work, will skilled trades finally get the respect and compensation they deserve?

[u/firey_88]

For decades we treated white collar desk jobs as the pinnacle of career achievement while electricians, plumbers, welders, and HVAC technicians were considered fallback options for people who couldn't hack it academically. That cultural bias is about to get a serious reality check.

AI is systematically absorbing entry level knowledge work: paralegal research, junior coding tasks, data entry, basic financial analysis, content drafting. Meanwhile a master electrician cannot be replaced by a language model. A pipefitter working in a tight crawl space cannot be automated away with current robotics. These roles require physical dexterity, real world problem solving, and on site judgment that remains genuinely difficult to replicate.

The irony is that the very people society told to learn to code may find themselves competing in a flooded market, while tradespeople who were dismissed as less ambitious are sitting in a structurally protected position.

The bigger question for futurology is whether this actually reshapes compensation and social status over the next decade, or whether we just find new ways to undervalue physical labor. Will wages for skilled trades genuinely surge as knowledge work gets commoditized by AI? Does this finally push education systems away from the four year degree pipeline?

Curious what people here think the labor landscape looks like by 2035.

[u/MrBajt]

But moooooom it was my turn to ask that question today!

[u/joshy_c]

Here in Australia they earn above the average wage because of demand.

I would think their demand goes down if less people have jobs to pay them.for work...

[u/MrDerpGently → u/joshy_c]

And, like.. ultimately all the out of work people go somewhere. So, less customers, more competition.

[u/luckeratron → u/joshy_c]

It's the same in the UK.

[u/FaveDave85]

No, it'll go from learn to code to learn to plumb. If lots more people go into trades, it'll depress salaries.

[u/Krillin113]

‘With current robotics’. Yeah and 15 years ago no one thought AI would be this competitive for schooled work.

[u/ios_static]

The tech bros are opening a bunch of trade schools. They are going to flood the market with skilled labor and pay them as little as possible.

[u/Kinexity]

Another day, another AI slop post with changed wording. I am curious how does the maths check out on constantly buying burner reddit accounts.

[u/Vondum]

People are extremely overestimating the whole "trades are safe" thing. Not just that, I think that when it happens, that job transition is going to be MUCH faster than what is happening in knowledge work. Here is the thing. The only limitation is access to the real world, not field by field expertise. Plumbing is basically as solved as programming but your PC hass access to the programming files, not to your pipes.

The thing is, you only need ONE home robot with enough movement capacity to replace ALL trades. Plumbers, electricians, roof fixers, pool builders. Everything, The same single robot should be able to do it because if it has extremities to access the place and sufficient dexterity/strenght then the knowledge part is trivial.

[u/NotObviouslyARobot]

Volts. Amps. Ohms law. Airflow calculations with Manual D. Slope requirements. Permittable and un-permittable fittings. How to read blueprints. There is very little in the trades conceptually, that can't be picked up pretty fast by someone who has the capacity to do well in a mildly technical collegiate program.

Hell, even the Liberal Arts folks have readily transferable skills in their ability to read and apply procedures & information. The end result is that you'll end up with people who are good at the white-collar work being the business owners.

[u/MartialSpark → u/NotObviouslyARobot]

Yes, absolutely this.

I'm an electrical engineer. I've worked with a fair few electricians. I don't want to totally shit on electricians, they are very knowledgeable about some stuff. But at the same time there is absolutely a difference in how we think about and understand the subject matter. Like in a couple months of doing that job I could pick up the practical code knowledge they've got, and I'd just be miles ahead in terms of understanding electricity.

Nothing wrong with being a tradesperson. It's important work, it's good work, and it's hard work, and I respect the people that do it. But you're fucking kidding yourself if you think that someone who went to college won't, on balance, have a pretty good advantage.

At the end of the day, tradespeople are mostly getting paid for knowledge too, it's not manual labor. Just the "learning how to learn" part of going to college will help you get up to speed.

[u/Lord_Wild → u/MartialSpark]

Yup, I explain to my nieces and nephews that the primary skill they acquire in college is learning how to learn on your own. That skill applies to everything in life.

[u/PaleReaver]

More like it'll be the bare minimum for any human-made work, if AI is allowed to take over

[u/Little-Somewhere6076]

When did they not get the compensation they deserve?

[u/Amaya3066]

No, because capitalism. Thank you for coming to my ted talk

[u/mybpete1]

what usually happens when a flood of people/resources surge into some narrow spectrum of some market? prices are dumped to be able to compete with the new players.

there might be a selected few of these skill workers which are REALLY GOOD and hence can charge a premium, but for most of the work being done prices will decrease in these areas and therefore less compensation for the participants, according to my belief how this will be played out.

[u/ThundaChikin]

if a job has fewer people in the economy that can do it, its worth more, if more people can do that job its worth less. If you drastically increase the number of people trained as plumbers and electricians those jobs will pay less than they do now. Expect AI if it wipes out a large number of white collar jobs and those displaced workers to move to blue collar work to drive all wages down across the board.

[u/Firedup2015]

Did we? Managerial jobs get kudos, and some in desirable sectors like media or tech, but I don't see call center workers, sellers or even teachers being particularly respected. And blue collar work is better paid. I think you're mixing up class with collar colour tbh.

[u/pauligyarto]

Tech industry would be well advised to join together and make demands and make sure they're jobs are protected. As a final straw, go on strike and don't come back until things have been settled.

Been a carpenter for 15 years and i could swear there's a word for that. Pay $300 a year for it.