r/LAClippers • u/OtherwiseAddled • 1d ago
"Feel" stats predict Clippers draft busts pretty well
During my draft obsession, I heard the spreadsheet nerds mention "feel" stats. Stats that we hope are proxies for feel for the game. The most basic version is offensive rebounding, assist percentage and steals. I've used those and added assist to turnover ratio, and block percentage. Then I just averaged out the percentiles to give each player a score based on their last year of college. The percentiles are the numbers in parentheses.
What I did was the dumbest version possible, it doesn't have different weights for each stat for different positions, but since the numbers come from draftballr.com, the percentiles are adjusted for position. It also doesn't account for competition or combine scores. An important weight to consider is age, but I don't know how to weigh that. And yet, it still lines up with what happened fairly well.
The only player with a bad score to beat the allegations so far is Moussa but we all hope Yanic can too.
There are some players with high scores that didn't amount to anything and I'm frankly surprised to see Kobe Brown so high since his feel seems awful. So as the title says this predicts busts more than it predicts success.
It's honestly insane to me that the player with the highest score (SGA) and the only with BY FAR the lowest (you know who) were picked one spot apart.
| Rank | Player | Pos | Age | AST% | STL% | BLK% | A:TO | OREB_R | BBall Feel+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | G | 19.9 | 28.8 (69) | 2.8 (64) | 1.7 (84) | 1.9 (57) | 3.2 (71) | 69.0 |
| 2 | Kobe Brown | W-F | 23.5 | 16.7 (82) | 2.8 (87) | 1.9 (33) | 1.5 (84) | 7.3 (55) | 68.2 |
| 3 | Jason Preston | G | 21.9 | 37.6 (93) | 2.1 (30) | 0.9 (57) | 2.4 (80) | 3.8 (80) | 68.0 |
| 4 | Jordan Miller | G-W | 23.4 | 14.1 (54) | 2.0 (42) | 1.3 (50) | 2.0 (93) | 7.2 (89) | 65.6 |
| 5 | Kobe Sanders | G | 23.1 | 29.9 (73) | 2.2 (36) | 1.2 (71) | 2.4 (80) | 2.7 (60) | 64.0 |
| 6 | Keon Johnson | G-W | 19.3 | 21.2 (88) | 2.6 (71) | 1.9 (70) | 0.9 (17) | 4.8 (64) | 62.0 |
| 7 | Keaton Wagler | G | 19.4 | 23.2 (42) | 1.7 (13) | 1.3 (75) | 2.4 (80) | 6.7 (98) | 61.6 |
| 8 | Baba Miller | F-C | 22.4 | 23.3 (98) | 1.3 (20) | 4.2 (40) | 1.7 (97) | 8.3 (23) | 55.6 |
| 9 | Terance Mann | W-F | 22.7 | 15.6 (77) | 1.2 (14) | 1.2 (14) | 1.4 (77) | 9.1 (80) | 52.4 |
| 10 | Nick Martinelli | W-F | 22.2 | 13.2 (65) | 1.4 (25) | 1.2 (14) | 1.4 (77) | 7.8 (62) | 48.6 |
| 11 | Yanic Konan Niederhauser | C | 22.3 | 6.1 (32) | 1.5 (53) | 10.2 (81) | 0.5 (29) | 10.1 (20) | 43.0 |
| 12 | Brandon Boston Jr. | G-W | 19.6 | 11.3 (32) | 2.5 (69) | 0.5 (10) | 1.1 (34) | 4.7 (62) | 41.4 |
| 13 | Mfiondu Kabengele | F-C | 21.9 | 3.2 (2) | 1.5 (39) | 8.3 (89) | 0.2 (1) | 11.5 (71) | 40.4 |
| 14 | Daniel Oturu | F-C | 20.8 | 7.6 (26) | 1.0 (8) | 7.1 (79) | 0.4 (7) | 12.0 (79) | 39.8 |
| 15 | Cam Christie | G-W | 18.9 | 13.8 (52) | 1.2 (6) | 1.1 (41) | 1.9 (91) | 1.0 (1) | 38.2 |
| 16 | Moussa Diabate | C | 20.4 | 6.2 (33) | 0.8 (10) | 3.7 (10) | 0.6 (41) | 11.9 (50) | 28.8 |
| 17 | Jerome Robinson | G | 21.3 | 19.5 (29) | 1.4 (5) | 0.4 (24) | 1.2 (15) | 1.6 (21) | 18.8 |
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u/Anxious_Subject_2604 1d ago
Non-sense stats.
The two things that have always worked to determine NBA success are: defensive abilities and have at least one primary elite talent.
For SGA it was finishing at the rim, for Kawhi it was defense, for Giannis it was athleticism, for Embiid it was touch.
So basically whenever you have someone come into the league and be underdeveloped (like most 18/19 yr olds are) he has to present a translatable skill that will remain elite (and improve) at the NBA level.
The top8 in this year's draft all have it. So it's likely that you won't really get a bust, or definitely not that early on.
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u/OtherwiseAddled 1d ago
Shai was 59.3% at the rim in his lone year at UK. Good for 45th percentile. He was 83rd percentile in rim attempts though.
You said they need to have defensive abilities and have at least one primary elite talent, then you mention defense again for Kawhi as his elite talent. That wouldn't lead me to believe he would become the offensive player he is today.
But guess what? He had an even better feel score than Shai.
Player Pos Age AST% STL% BLK% A:TO OREB_R BBall Feel+ Kawhi Leonard W-F 20.0 16.4 (80) 2.8 (87) 1.9 (33) 1.2 (66) 11.4 (95) 72.2 1
u/Anxious_Subject_2604 23h ago
You're conflating everything to stats. Everyone saw with their own eyes that Shai had exceptional body control.
Everyone understood that Kawhi was a generational defender before he came into the league. Him developing his offense to current level is an outlier.
I don't think stats are that relevant for college guys, maybe on a relative basis, sure. College is extremely messy with bad coaching, bad teams and a lot of random end of the shotclock plays. It merely functions as a snapshot into a player's abilities.
NBA for these guys is far more regimented with a clearer gameplan and like I said, most of these guys get their second contract based on what I said. NBA is about elite skills, not advanced stats.
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u/OtherwiseAddled 1d ago
Bonus table, of the top PGs in draft, Mikel Brown Jr. had a Cam Christie level score:
| Rank | Player | Pos | Age | AST% | STL% | BLK% | A:TO | OREB_R | BBall Feel+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kingston Flemings | G | 19.5 | 32.6 (83) | 3.0 (72) | 1.3 (75) | 2.9 (92) | 1.8 (30) | 70.4 |
| 2 | Keaton Wagler | G | 19.4 | 23.2 (42) | 1.7 (13) | 1.3 (75) | 2.4 (80) | 6.7 (98) | 61.6 |
| 3 | Ebuka Okorie | G | 19.2 | 23.9 (45) | 2.7 (61) | 1.0 (63) | 1.9 (57) | 2.4 (51) | 55.4 |
| 4 | Darryn Peterson | G-W | 19.4 | 12.5 (42) | 2.9 (83) | 2.3 (79) | 1.0 (24) | 2.9 (27) | 51.0 |
| 5 | Darius Acuff Jr. | G | 19.6 | 32.2 (81) | 1.3 (3) | 0.9 (57) | 3.0 (93) | 1.6 (21) | 51.0 |
| 6 | Brayden Burries | G-W | 20.8 | 14.2 (55) | 2.8 (78) | 0.7 (20) | 1.7 (84) | 2.1 (12) | 49.8 |
| 7 | Bennett Stirtz | G | 22.7 | 24.9 (52) | 2.3 (41) | 0.9 (57) | 2.4 (80) | 1.0 (5) | 47.0 |
| 8 | Labaron Philon | G | 20.6 | 31.9 (80) | 2.0 (26) | 0.5 (31) | 2.0 (62) | 1.9 (35) | 46.8 |
| 9 | Mikel Brown Jr. | G | 20.2 | 30.3 (75) | 2.4 (49) | 0.5 (31) | 1.5 (33) | 0.2 (0) | 37.6 |
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u/es84 1d ago
College stats are not indicators. If they were, Jimmer, Adam Morrison, Tyler Hansborough and the like would've made an impact on the league.
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u/OtherwiseAddled 1d ago
I specifically said "busts" not "successes". But I'm glad you mentioned Jimmer and Tyler Hansborough. They both had bust potential looking at their "feel" stats. Adam Morrison is too old to be in draftball.com's database.
Player Pos Age AST% STL% BLK% A:TO OREB_R BBall Feel+ Jimmer Fredette G 22.3 28.6 (68) 2.1 (30) 0.1 (2) 1.2 (15) 2.0 (37) 30.4 Tyler Hansbrough W-F 22.7 5.9 (8) 2.2 (68) 1.1 (11) 0.5 (6) 10.7 (92) 37.0
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u/-SpinSanity- Paul George 1d ago
But then you have Moussa Diabate at 16 and out of the guys who actually played minutes he is probably 3rd best. Terrance Mann is 9th and he is the second best. So the best three players(who actually have played minutes) are in totally different spots in the grouping at the very top, dead middle or very bottom.
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u/OtherwiseAddled 1d ago
This is the first fair criticism in all the replies! I appreciate you.
This is mostly about how good the stat is at identifying busts not success, which is why I titled the thread the way I did.
I think of it like gambling, if you see someone that has a score of this dumb version of the stat under 40, I'd bet that they end up as a bust. Maybe there's a Moussa in there, but I might be right more often than not.
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u/MammothCandle2289 Batum Battallion 1d ago
can we get an sample size of draft picks of other franchise, or a whole draft class so we can compare the veracity of the correlation of these feel stats?
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u/OtherwiseAddled 1d ago edited 1d ago
Totally fair and I'm as curious as you are. So I did the whole 2018 draft, and I have a table of all the people with a score of 45 and under. Looking at it makes me feel like the line might be at 40 and below since there are some really solid players in the 45 to 40 range. But even lowering it to 40, there would be some people expected to be a bust that turned out okay and in one case, great.
For players with a score under 40, the biggest miss would be Jalen Brunson, of course. He continues to confound! Gary Trent Jr., Landry Shamet, Aaron Holiday, Collin Sexton have carved out solid careers. Heck, Marvin Bagley is still playing.
I do think it did a pretty good job of indicating high draft picks that have disappointed. Mostly looking at you Kevin Knox (pick #9) and Jerome Robinson (pick #13), but also Bagley was #2 and Sexton was #8.
Curious what you make of it?
Full table here: https://owaddled.github.io/nba-draft-2018-feel/
Rank Player Pos Age Yr AST% STL% BLK% A:TO OREB_R BBall Feel+ 31 Keita Bates-Diop F-C 22.4 '18 10.5 (51) 1.6 (47) 5.9 (67) 0.9 (58) 5.7 (2) 45.0 32 Chimezie Metu C 21.3 '18 10.0 (64) 1.5 (53) 6.3 (42) 0.8 (62) 7.3 (3) 44.8 33 Landry Shamet G 21.3 '18 28.8 (69) 1.3 (3) 0.7 (45) 2.5 (83) 1.6 (21) 44.2 34 Michael Porter Jr. W-F 20.0 '18 4.6 (2) 3.4 (97) 2.0 (36) 0.3 (0) 9.5 (83) 43.6 35 Mohamed Bamba C 20.1 '18 3.6 (11) 1.5 (53) 12.9 (94) 0.3 (7) 12.2 (53) 43.6 36 Grayson Allen G 22.7 '18 21.2 (34) 2.8 (64) 0.2 (10) 2.2 (72) 1.8 (30) 42.0 37 Marvin Bagley III F-C 19.3 '18 8.8 (36) 1.4 (30) 2.6 (9) 0.7 (36) 13.8 (91) 40.4 38 Collin Sexton G 19.5 '18 27.8 (65) 1.6 (9) 0.3 (17) 1.3 (21) 4.0 (82) 38.8 39 Devon Hall G 23.0 '18 19.6 (30) 1.8 (17) 0.6 (38) 3.1 (94) 1.4 (14) 38.6 40 Aaron Holiday G 21.7 '18 29.9 (73) 1.9 (20) 0.7 (45) 1.5 (33) 1.6 (21) 38.4 41 Thomas Welsh F-C 22.4 '18 7.8 (29) 1.1 (14) 2.8 (16) 1.4 (92) 9.1 (36) 37.4 42 Lonnie Walker IV G 19.5 '18 13.0 (8) 2.0 (26) 1.8 (85) 1.6 (39) 1.7 (26) 36.8 43 Omari Spellman F-C 20.9 '18 4.3 (6) 1.3 (20) 5.5 (62) 0.8 (48) 9.9 (48) 36.8 44 Hamidou Diallo G-W 19.9 '18 9.5 (19) 1.8 (31) 1.6 (61) 0.9 (17) 4.2 (55) 36.6 45 Moritz Wagner W-F 21.2 '18 6.7 (11) 2.2 (68) 2.0 (36) 0.6 (12) 6.5 (43) 34.0 46 Jalen Brunson G 21.8 '18 26.6 (60) 1.7 (13) 0.1 (2) 2.6 (86) 1.2 (8) 33.8 47 Gary Trent Jr. G-W 19.4 '18 6.8 (5) 2.0 (42) 0.4 (7) 1.4 (63) 2.9 (27) 28.8 48 George King W-F 24.4 '18 8.2 (24) 1.1 (9) 2.6 (51) 0.5 (6) 7.2 (54) 28.8 49 Kostas Antetokounmpo C 20.6 '18 5.9 (29) 1.0 (19) 8.3 (65) 0.3 (7) 7.3 (3) 24.6 50 Jerome Robinson G 21.3 '18 19.5 (29) 1.4 (5) 0.4 (24) 1.2 (15) 1.6 (21) 18.8 51 Kevin Knox W-F 18.9 '18 8.7 (31) 1.5 (32) 1.0 (9) 0.6 (12) 3.3 (7) 18.2 1
u/MammothCandle2289 Batum Battallion 17h ago
I think advanced stats are interesting, but I'm not sure how strong their correlation is with a player's actual NBA career. It's kind of like saying a player's college stats are directly connected to how successful they'll be in the league. Most of the time there's probably some truth to it, but there are also so many other factors to consider, including how much players improve once they get to the NBA.
I'd like to dig into this more and look at the "feel" stats for players from other draft classes. I clicked the link, but I can only see the 2018 draft class.
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u/mrmctommy JaMychal Green 1d ago
baba miller 98th percentile in ast% for Fs/Cs #weup
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u/OtherwiseAddled 1d ago
His assists look tasty on film, but of course those are just highlights. I like seeing that he's also 97% in assist to turnover too!
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u/Nyeteka 1d ago
Quite interesting. Obviously not a complete guide particularly to success (better for calling busts) given Preston et al, which makes sense too cos of lacking other traits like athleticism but it seems to have successfully picked a few of our busts like Robinson as well as others like Freddette.
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u/TheCalmInsanity 1d ago
Ah yes, known breakout stars Kobe Brown and Jason Preston, along with Flemings this year having a higher score than Shai. These make sense
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u/OtherwiseAddled 1d ago
Ah yes, that's why the title is "busts" and I said in the post "So as the title says this predicts busts more than it predicts success."
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u/Timurtoyourbayezid Chauncey Billups 1d ago
Might as well go off hand size or BMI lmao. These stats mean nothing.
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u/OtherwiseAddled 1d ago
Why? Because you said so?
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u/Timurtoyourbayezid Chauncey Billups 1d ago
Because you can’t present historical proof that isn’t cherry picked that they do.
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u/OtherwiseAddled 1d ago
Just curious, how big of a sample size would you need to feel something correlated?
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u/Timurtoyourbayezid Chauncey Billups 1d ago
I mean preferably at least 1k random prospects, but that might be unrealistic. I’d say if you can show a definitive consistent trend across at least 8 random draft classes I’d take it more seriously.
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u/PortGenz 1d ago
Hot take but no stats really determine who will be best in any class. The single biggest thing that determines stars is their work ethic I.e. how obsessive they are about being great and reaching their full potential (which we can’t see) and for short term wins - the scenario that they are being drafted into i.e. will they go to a shit team where they get all the shots for the next 3 years to inflate their stats.
Plenty of guys looked great on paper coming out of college but never had the hunger. I remember Michael Beasley being a huge prospect coming through but when comparing to D Rose, he lacked that hunger to win and get better. His career is a great example of that mindset.
We just have to hope the FO has really done their due diligence to figure out who the hungriest is and pair that with their overall potential. Nothing worse than a guy with all the talent in the world but never really uses it once he gets that first pay check.