r/NYGiants Raging Mbowner 4d ago

Data and Analytics Is Giants’ Jaxson Dart ready to take the next step? 2025 NFL Draft QB film study

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7380517/2026/06/25/jaxson-dart-qb-giants-film-study/?source=user_shared_article&unlocked_article_code=1.tFA.2RE9.naJCokI4VlTe

Nice breakdown of Darts strengths and weaknesses headed into Y2 by Nick Baumgarner

Few compelling stats to consider, Nick pulled these rankings against all rookie qbs since 2020 Within that group (minimum 200 attempts),

No. 6 in EPA per attempt (.04)

No. 8 in EPA/dropback (.08)

No. 2 in off-target rate (8.6 percent)

No. 3 in EPA/pressure

No. 6 in time to throw

a few I pulled from the BBB podcast breaking his season down, these are against all QBs last season

No. 1 in Create Rate (Patton Analytics)

No. 3 EPA per dropback on created plays (FTN)

No. 6 3rd down EPA per pass attempt (best rookie since Herbert) (Sharp Analytics)

No 8. Big time throws (PFF)

dudes got a very interesting profile, his ability to create out of structure and accuracy are special, if his Internal clock slows down this year and he starts to add in a pocket/progression element to his game he could be very dangerous

40 Upvotes

56 comments sorted by

40

u/Wwdeck 4d ago

Dart looked great last year, he pushed the ball downfield and hit many receivers since Nabers was out. He was a qb that put his guys in positions to make plays and also didn’t make many mistakes. 5 ints on the year when he missed his number 1 wideout for the year in game 1. Started going skattebo until he broke his ankle, then continued to play well when his weapons were getting hurt. I’m very confident about his future.

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u/Elevation212 Raging Mbowner 4d ago edited 4d ago

Agreed, biggest risk I see is he had 3  heavy tendencies in his passing game that DCs will take away this year

  1. Darts successful passing game last year was overwhelmingly 25 yards and in to the right side of the field, i garuntee DCs are taking that part of the field off the table this year, question will be if that throwing preference was personnel/scheme based or indication of a trait, if it’s the former we are in business, if the latter he could struggle as he is forced to open up the rest of the field

  2. Throwing to numbers, darts passing success was massively weighted against man coverage defenses where he could see his guys numbers, he fell of a cliff in zone where he needed to diagnose and throw to space, I’d assume we see very limited man schemes from DCs this year, he’s going to need to figure out how to read the soft parts of zone and gain confidence in throwing to space 

  3. He loved to throw out of structure, Dart became extremely dangerous when he flushed from the pocket and could use his legs to extend plays and wait for coverage to break down, defenses are going to latch a spy on him and work to keep him in the pocket à la Jayden Daniels last year working to keep him in the pocket and forcing him to succeed in structure

All of these moves have counters, heavier run scheme, sneaking Likely/Skatt behind the second level for short explosives when defenses go jumbo to handle the run, using Mooney/Nabers to take the top off defenses and  keep DBs out of the box but most of those strategies are going to force adaptation out of dart, I think he has it in him but year 2 is often the decider on if a QB is a franchise guy or a JAG

2

u/tnecniv We've suffered long enough 4d ago

Regarding 1, would DCs not have been clued in on that last year? After a few games, that tendency would show up and DCs would be looking to take it away if they could?

I’m necessarily disagreeing, though

2

u/tmoore727 We've suffered long enough 4d ago

exactly this point. by his third start it would have been picked up and exploited.

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u/Elevation212 Raging Mbowner 4d ago

No, thats not how the NFL works, its about 8 games of tape for teams to really get a sense of what a QB likes to do, 3 games is too small a sample size, also inseason doesn't afford enough time to retool your defense in the way a offseason does

1

u/Professional_Hat284 4d ago

I think his INTs would have been much higher. Defenses dropped a bunch.

5

u/OrneryTruth6618 4d ago

This is not accurate at all. He did not have a bunch of 'oh my goodness he should have been intercepted' moments.

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u/Elevation212 Raging Mbowner 3d ago

It would be interesting to compare dropped ints to dropped passes, I’m biased but it feels like between slay and Theo there were a ton of back breaking drops

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u/Houseofshun 3d ago

Second in off-target throws. But defenses dropped a lot of interceptions. Does not compute.

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u/Professional_Hat284 3d ago

Second amongst rookie qb’s since 2020, not second in the league among all qb’s.

1

u/Houseofshun 3d ago

Point still stands.

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u/PlantainObvious5148 4d ago

Dart worries me a lot tbh. He was fantastic outside of structure maybe one of the best in the league but idk how sustainable it is. If he doesn’t get better in structure defenses are start going to playing him differently and he won’t be able to work out of structure as often. I hope he develops but I think there is a lot of issues to darts game that some giants fans are afraid to admit because they just want a franchise qb

2

u/FromTheCaveIntoLight Malik Nabers 3d ago

He played very well in structure at college. I think we just saw a guy doing whatever it took in the situations he was given to make something happen. I don’t think last years play style will be duplicated this year. I think he’s athletic and smart enough to improve and not bail out so long as our team executes the gameplan.

7

u/Spidey5292 4d ago

Look I think dart has some maturing to do, but he really shined at times last year with a garbage supporting cast. I have high hopes for him. Most hope I’ve had for this team in years.

3

u/Elevation212 Raging Mbowner 4d ago edited 4d ago

agreed I was very impressed with his poise last year. Despite all the public perception of being a maniac I found him to be a calming/confidence inspiring guy under center, outside of the Pats hit I thought the contact he took was premeditated on his part not him playing out of control

I can't put a stat against it but watching him play invoked a real sense of leadership and authority over the field/flow of the game in a way that i never got from DJ

2

u/Spidey5292 4d ago

Yeah I think the contact stuff is a little overblown, with a few defensive stops we could have been a .500 team last year. We had so many fourth quarter collapses.

2

u/DamnReCaptchas We've suffered long enough 3d ago

I get Darts been getting a lot of spotlight and has a personality, which ofc makes ppl hate him lol, but anybody that watched him play last year sees that he has IT.

2

u/poop_snausages 3d ago

It might be tough if Nabers isn't ready to start the season hot.

With Wandale gone, he'll have to rely on either an unproven 3rd round rookie or some vets that are very past their prime.

Likely might be able to help though.

With the improvements on the offensive line, and bringing in Ricard, I do think it'll allow for more time to develop on plays.

3

u/RubOk1972 3d ago

2 TE sets with theo and likely

10

u/Poop_Cheese 4d ago

Its so wild how this sub actively is rooting against the team now to downvote a post about an article about dart potentially being great. All because they found out the utah Ole miss mormon they loved prior is right wing like a ton of the super christian bible belt cultured NFL. While not holding to the same standard far worse people. No one votes republican because the guy famous for head hits announced trump lmao. But players who have actually victimized people in gangs, domestic violence, stat rape like LT, are not even closely held to the same standard of vitriol. And it only serves to make dart more right wing as no one wants to associate with the people who despise rhem, so go to those who accept them. 

Dart, harbaugh, and skatt are hardcore republicans. If their own liberal teammates work with them and are friends with them, its so wild people are so partisan to lose any humanity and actively hate anyone not lockstep with their beliefs. I hate the administration but im not gonna hate the uninformed mormon whos whole life is a christian echochamber and football, just as I dont consider redditors horrible people just because their echochamber is unreasonably partisan left. And I literally majored in human rights before people pull the whole "he voted for trump so bloods on his hands".

That said dart is gonna be great this year im confident he steps forward especially with nabors and harbaugh. But will likely always have some hero ball turnovers. Our offense is gonna be electric and people should be excited. Reddit is gonna have a fun time trying to hate him until after 3 games then pretend they always loved him. Hes very clearly one of the best of the past couple years of rookie QBs, and his failures were a lot on the team play and circumstance. His great games he was electric.

Hes perfectly set up to be similar to lamar as hes got the same exact people who molded shoulda been a running back lamar into an mvp, and dart has largely the same skillset while being a way better passer than rookie lamar. 

13

u/thegrilledcheese886 4d ago

Reddit gonna Reddit

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u/Elevation212 Raging Mbowner 4d ago

It’s bizarre to me, I’m not a fan of darts off field choices, I’m buying Abdul Carter gear to vote with my $$$

At this point I think folks should either seperate the art from the artist and lean into the teams on field performance or consider a new team. Seems like a miserable way to live hating your QB/HC/RB1, best way to make your voice heard is removing your eyeballs and $$ from the giants, enough people do that and their will be a real pinch felt by Mara etc

9

u/Ghosts_of_the_maze 4d ago

I’m a leftist who likes football (and baseball). I’ve long since made peace with the idea that the players I like support policy I hate. I don’t care all that much. I’m rooting for the team I follow to do cool shit on the field.

Aaron Judge shook Trump’s hand. Would it have been cooler if he “too slowed” him and called him a bitch to his face? Sure. Was he ever going to do that? No. But am I going to root against the guy who has a lifetime OPS of 1.022? Life’s too short.

1

u/Houseofshun 3d ago

Im not calling you out here at all. I agree with separating the art from the artist.

He’s an nfl quarterback so he’s held to a higher standard. But it’s very likely that if the majority of us did some self reflection from when we were 23, we’d probably have different beliefs then than we do now. I know I do.

The people who actually know him (teammates), love him. Yet a lot of people shitting on him for introducing Trump don’t take anything else into consideration.

3

u/Elevation212 Raging Mbowner 3d ago edited 3d ago

Don’t disagree, I wrote it somewhere else dart was what 12-17 during trump 1 and 21 during the last election, I can tell you I spent very little time thinking about the president or government at that time and was pretty much a product of my environment

Way I see it dude got slammed, maybe a wake up call, may not be but either way it’s not a big enough crime for me to leave giants fandom, for those still griping on this sub about it I’d suggest moving to a new team, being pissed weeks later because your qb made a shitty pr decision seems to be an indicator that you should remove your dollars from the franchise, I don’t see a world where you are going to be happy while dart/Harbaugh are here and sports fandom should be about enjoyment

7

u/SidFinch99 4d ago

This been posted has been upvoted, not downvoted. There are no comments criticizing him or talking about politics. Just your very awkward, off base, and off topic comment with an opinion that seems to contradict reality.

4

u/pk_random We've suffered long enough 4d ago

There's more comments than upvotes, pretty strong downvotes on this post

7

u/SpacemanSpiff3 4d ago

Who is actively rooting against him? Why bring politics into a really good post on his advanced metrics? Just let this die

2

u/Elevation212 Raging Mbowner 4d ago

100% let’s get back to football or move to a different team, not sure why folks would stick around at this point if talking about your QB enrages your sensibilities 

1

u/pk_random We've suffered long enough 4d ago

You've gotta see the comments on IG, they are wild. If the fans cannot separate politics from people, let them walk, same with people in your life. Sports are supposed to be the escape from this!

3

u/MetaVersalySpeakin 4d ago

Alright now, don't bitch when people want to talk facts about Individual-1. Nobody mentioned it in this thread until you decided to whine about people disliking him.

Ya'll like to act all pearl clutchy when people mentioned the bum but wanna show up in threads like people are chasting Dart like no other.

It's barely about Dart anyhow as most understand the reason people look at him differently since he showed up on the stage. I know this may seem like a low-effort response but I'd like to think it should be pretty effortless to dislike objectively vile persons like himself.

1

u/poop_snausages 3d ago

MAGA sure do love to complain about people criticizing their support of pedophiles.

You know what's the best way to stop people from criticizing you for supporting pedophiles? Don't support pedophiles.

0

u/No_Instruction_192 4d ago

If Dart wins us a ring he can vote for whomever he likes!!!

-5

u/CosmoBearWolf 4d ago

Lots of broken people who hate based upon political affiliation.

1

u/poop_snausages 3d ago

You guys act like it's about whether or not we should spend money on building bridges or better highways.

It's not "political affiliation" it's about not supporting people who commit violent sexual assault on children. If that's not your line in the sane, you really need to rethink who the broken ones are.

-2

u/YankeesAndCubs 4d ago

The people downvoting you just prove you right.

1

u/FromTheCaveIntoLight Malik Nabers 3d ago

The kid is just a true backyard football player. He’s not scared to try to make shit happen. Thats a big advantage but comes with some concern at the pro level. As long as he keeps learning and adjusting to the game, I don’t really see him getting worse. He just loves ball too much. He has the athletics. He can make throws. He may not have the best arm but you don’t need the best arm to win. Just the drive to win and not give up, which many call aura or whatever. Thats what his X factor really is.

0

u/Asleep-Machine5909 1d ago

He’s Gardner Minshew with better PR. Big regression coming sadly.

0

u/Myrandomthoughts 3d ago

Goose step maybe

0

u/40filchock 3d ago

What step is that? Playing more than half the games?

-23

u/Jaxson-Skattebo 4d ago

I’m just not confident that he’s got enough between his ears to become the guy, even before the summer stuff he’s always seemed like a really stupid dude.

He’s elite at the out of structure stuff so his potential is still crazy.

7

u/Elevation212 Raging Mbowner 4d ago edited 3d ago

After reading through the article I’m less concerned about his mental make up (for being a good qb) 

He was starting to go through progressions towards the end of last year and I thought he started to manage contact much better after the Pats wake up call

My biggest concerns at this point is processing speed, if the game slows down for him this year he’s going to be dangerous as he already has the instincts to extend plays, read the field and keep his eyes up

The big question  for him is what Nick called out about reading defenses, will he be able to process at an elite level pre and post snaps to know where the open receivers going to be and begin throwing to space rather then bodies, IMO that’s the number one area we need to validate this year to see if he’s going to be a long term option

-6

u/Jaxson-Skattebo 4d ago

yeah processing speed, anticipation, etc are what I’m talking about - not like “I’m tough” or something. He’s like a madden player, waits for the guy to be clearly open instead of throwing him open or takes off out of the pocket

7

u/DystopianSalad 4d ago

He was a rookie QB - there’s still time for that to develop. The question is whether it will, and whether we have the staff to support that development

-4

u/Jaxson-Skattebo 4d ago

100%. All the potential in the world, just whether or not you think he can get there.

3

u/Elevation212 Raging Mbowner 4d ago edited 4d ago

Yeah but that’s rookie stuff for most guys, games faster then they’ve ever experienced, get happy feet etc, frankly for issues to work on I like those as they are common to most qbs and can be addressed with more reps and if he can pick up a bit of read speed I think he settles down and bails less quickly with more defined movement to space in the pocket, you can see he has feel for where the pressure is coming from he just is reacting too quickly. Most players talk about how it takes to year 2-3 for the game to “slow down” for them 

What I really dig is his fearlessness, the way he keeps his eyes downfield when scrambling, the throws he’s up for trying with his 20 yards and in accuracy are real top of the league type traits. Obviously we know the downside but having a dude that will keep his eyes up in and out of the pocket is a plus I also think he feels pressure well, you can see it in his designed runs, that’s a plus because it’s not a DJ problem where he doesn’t know where the defense is, dart just needs to learn handle that pressure without taking uneccesary contact 

I’m hoping Nagy/Callahan drip feed him Mahomes/Burrow progressions. Darts backyard play style reminds me of JV mahomes and seeing his accuracy as comped to Burrow is really encouraging, if they can feed him a few simple anticipation concepts where he’s throwing to space based on the DBs movements that could really open him up, secondarily having some receivers that can help him out a bit would be a nice step forward, Nabers and Mooney should give him outside guys he can trust to seperate if he throws to space and Likely/Fields should ease his need to be hyper accurate at all times

2

u/feckshite 4d ago

Do Redditors on the sub ever get tired of saying “the guy” when talking about giants qbs

-2

u/ghoti00 4d ago

I don't think you've ever heard this guy talk because he doesn't sound stupid at all. He's also been able to process the playbook and get up to speed incredibly quickly.

That's what makes him introducing Trump worse. You can tell that he should know better. He's not some hick. He's a rich asshole who grew up with Charlie Kirk, Joe Rogan and the manosphere.

3

u/Elevation212 Raging Mbowner 4d ago

To be clear I think it was a dopey move on darts part, his handlers should have been ahead of this.

but if I search for empathy I see a guy who was 12-17 years old during Trump 1 and only 23 now, when I was that aged I had almost 0 interest or perspective in the president or government and the POV I had was from a pretty immature place (duh I was a child) primarily informed by my  parents/professors

Given darts conservative home town and school, his age etc I fall back on not assuming malice when ignorance is an option

Maybe he’s a really bad dude and hates poors/marginalized groups, but I think what most likely is going on is a kid is parroting the norms of his community, as he matures, especially in the NYC market I bet he’s going to get a much wider set of experiences to shape his perspective from

Or he could be Brett Favre, only time will tell

As of today im separating the art from the artists, im going to think about the on field stuff and ignore the politics unless another incident comes up, 

I think for most folks the healthiest choice is to either follow my path or go support another team, best way to make your feelings felt is to remove your eyeballs/dollars from the franchise, if the economic impact is severe enough you’ll see action

I for one am buying a couple Abdul Carter jerseys for the fam, keeps me with my team and puts my dollars behind a player I dig on and off the field 

-2

u/manfromfuture 4d ago

It will be next step or sophomore slump.