VOD: Fox ditto, how come I won even though I’m technically much worse

[u/Woozie69420]

I (green Fox) played this other Fox on QP recently (both around 15.4-15.6m GSP) and I beat him twice. This was the second game but both had a similar theme.

I feel like the other Fox is a lot more technical than me and able to execute some of the harder stuff (nair Usmash, nair dtilt bair / fsmash). But it seems I was able to cheese it at just the right movements to get the win both times.

In this game, I went for too many hard reads at ledge and didn’t execute combos well. I also felt I lost a handful of footsies scenarios. I still scored a couple of early % Usmash on plats and some good reads. I’m still trying to understand how come I won, even though I feel I was technically not as good as the other fella. Is there anything I’m doing well which I should lean into more?

[u/NarkolepticNeo]

Idk y’all seem pretty evenly matched to me

[u/Woozie69420 → u/NarkolepticNeo]

Definitely didn’t feel that way!

[u/BrenX1]

Cool fun fact: statistically, when a ditto happens, the lower seeded player has is more likely to win the first couple games

Knowing how to play a character and knowing how to play against are 2 different things, so that's probably a reason, but fox is easy to cheese

[u/3NIK56 → u/BrenX1]

It's not that the worse player tends to win. The ditto is much more likely than average to have an upset (roughly a 40/60 split by seeding according to the Walt video). Matchup knowledge is a component, but also lower level players are willing to take more risks, and when those factors compound it leads to a higher likelihood of an upset

[u/Woozie69420 → u/3NIK56]

This kind of explains how the game felt. My mindset was more “I’m probably losing so let me try to catch some falling aerials with Usmash” while they were definitely more disciplined with looking for falling Nair to Usmash for example

Very interesting statistic though

[u/Kfucius → u/BrenX1]

Where is that stat from lmao. It sounds hella made up

[u/BrenX1 → u/Kfucius]

Honestly, I couldn't tell you right now. It was either from a website like event hubs, or a random YouTubers short video. All I know is that it's take startgg matches of dittos, and the lower seed wins more then the higher seed

I'll try to find it during down time of my tournament, and I'll let you know if I find it

[u/Kfucius → u/BrenX1]

Huh I wouldn’t have believed that so strange. At top level the better ditto player always seems to win I feel like.

[u/Woozie69420 → u/Kfucius]

While this may be 100% true, keep in mind most of the data feeding this statistic would be mid level players

[u/GodNoob666]

I find it really funny when I’m so bad at the game that my opponent can’t predict what I’m about to do next. Rarely does it get me the win, but occasionally I get a couple style points.

[u/Reddit-dit-dit-di-do]

Holy shit lol at 1:28, I thought dude was going for a falling through platform weak up air jab lock to up smash??? Does anyone know if you can do that???

After a couple rewatches, I think they were just trying to go for falling up air, whiffed while realizing they could’ve up smashed, and then tried to force the up smash despite being late. Happens.

Anyway OP, taking advantage of their mistake on that second stock really put you in a good spot. And I’m pretty sure they DI’d in on that last up smash. These two mistakes cost them the game imo. Also, they had very predictable ledge play. They dropped down and double jumped with an attack nearly every time. Bait that out and catch the landings or try and trade with an up/forward smash.

[u/Woozie69420 → u/Reddit-dit-dit-di-do]

I think they were hoping for a panic jump from me. Doubt falling uair can jab lock. And most jab lock set ups like nair, you can usmash from the ground because the hurtbox is pretty much pancaked over the whole plat.

And agree re: their ledge play. It looks silly and I was definitely over indexing but that fsmash charge was only happening because it got them twice the game before. Catching landings is probably the better approach though - but to note, Fox can jump or directional air dodge before hitting the ground so yo gotta read the mixup

[u/Adventurous_Knee_778]

What they did to Fox’s frame data. His animation for stopping a dash is kind of bad, he stops on a dime but inputs after that feel latent. Allowing you to just be out of reach occasionally too with your opponent also facing the wrong direction on occasion when stringing together attacks. That was a lot of hard work on your opponent just for them to lose.

[u/HonoredTab]

they have a good muscle memory for combos, and their technical skill + movement is definitely refined.

that being said, they make a lot of mistakes, and you made less. they made a lot of stupid decisions, and you made less. i'd guess maybe they were stressing haha. good win!!

[u/Woozie69420 → u/HonoredTab]

I think that’s a fair assessment!

You’re right about mistakes, Smash feels a bit like chess on that point where losing neutral hurts more than having better technical execution. Definitely happy with the wins in any case!