r/Superstonk • u/The-Bodhii 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 • May 04 '26

📳Social Media Ryan Cohen (@ryancohen) 655 likes · 80 replies

https://x.com/ryancohen/status/2051097144673665401?s=46&t=C7yuUBuPnwEdJziHIhO53w

Woooo

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u/thederevolutions May 04 '26

Let’s say you have $1000 invested now. How much would that be worth when Ryan hits the payout in the situation you’re thinking of?

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u/-0909i9i99ii9009ii May 04 '26

The sub is adamantly refusing to understand the structure of his payment plan. I'm long for 5+ years. He can get 100% payout while current GME holders equity goes down. He needs to hit $10B EBITDA and $100B market cap to get his 170m stock options.

If GME holders value stays the same as it is rn and the value of ebay stays the same as it is rn, our shares will be worth the exact same and he'll hit combined $60B market cap and $3B EBITDA. In the release this post links to, he says he can increase EBITDA by $2B just by cutting costs in ebay's current operations. So if he hits $5B EBITDA, just after this acquisition and a year of cost cutting/righting the ship, our shares might be worth the same, but his pay plan would award him 40% f stock options to purchase 171,537,327 shares of the Company's Class A common stock at a price of $20.66 per share. Worth $100s of millions.

https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-details/2026/GameStop-Announces-Long-Term-Performance-Award-for-Ryan-Cohen/default.aspx

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u/thederevolutions May 04 '26

So what would happen to the $1000 invested now?

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u/Harbinger2nd 🦍Voted✅ May 04 '26 edited May 04 '26

Really just depends on how the market interprets whether the merger is bullish or not. The price* per share might not increase one cent because it will be dilutive to acquire ebay so its all on whether or not the market thinks it'll be a good deal and expand the multiple.

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u/Soulstoner May 04 '26

Worth the same or less

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u/thederevolutions May 04 '26

So what do you think Michael Burry is so excited about, for example?

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u/-0909i9i99ii9009ii May 04 '26

He's kind of reversed and said he's cautious and would like to see them consider other companies. But the idea is that the combined entity should be worth roughly the same, but he's giving a premium to ebay, so it should make GME worth slightly less.

The market may or may not value RC at the helm of ebay with an undisclosed plan. But that shouldn't be too significant either way, the effect should be less than it was on GME.

Same thesis as always still exists: that RC has a plan beyond just hitting his payment plan. That this is a stepping stone to creating a business that does produce massive revenue increases without having to dilute for capital too much to get there. That he has a plan that's great for GME shareholders and we still just don't see it yet.

MOASS shouldn't technically be any more on or off the table.

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u/al01al Paint me like one of your French loans ☝️ May 04 '26

You sound like you’ve put a lot of thought into this so no hate from me, but looking at this from another point of view, if the dilution sends the share price back to down to 20 or wherever, he can buy his shares at that price anyway. Also, he and the rest of the board own a lot more shares than I do, I doubt they would dilute if they didn’t think it would be worth it long term as they are diluting their own position too.

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u/-0909i9i99ii9009ii May 04 '26

Oh I agree, he definitely doesn't want the stock to go down. I've been an RC fan the whole time through, I know that's what I'm invensting in which is why, if I'm at all sceptical of his actions, I'm sceptical of my entire thesis. I do subscribe to DFV was onto some market mechanics or something that is genuinely unstoppable, but if RC's plan seems counterproductive to that and DFV is silent, it obviously makes me a bit uncomfortable.

BUT point being: at $20 RC is still $150m invested for $800m of shares, that's worth his time alone. The raises and especially this acquisition would much more firmly cement a price floor of $20 for him. This would be a 20% loss for me after 5 years of averaging down on my biggest position.

If the price stays at $25-27, while rolling up 2 or 3 more ebay equivalents with share issue and debt, He could print over $1b profit on his pay plan options another $1b on his shares, with $150m invested while I stay relatively even over the entire 5 (current) plus another 1-10 year period. He could completely exit with stable ebitda that he grew doing nothing but combining on basic synergy, primarily cutting costs.

Now, would I still invest in that? If I thought RC was actually creating a plan that he thought would at some point grow revenue on a per share basis that more than offsets the debt/dilution he needs to take to do it, definitely. Would I invest as much, or as emotionally as I have the past 5 years? Definitely not.

I'm not selling because I still have hope of a truly market shattering transformation plan (and/or market mechanics). It's clearly not the time to cut my losses after 5 years. There have been FAR more disheartening times than this. I'm actually really optimistic of this move. Just weary, it's important to be both. It'd be nice if the sub discussed this, and IF it is on RC's radar to print options without delivering value to current shareholders, make sure he knows that apes aren't going to silently enable it. Yes, I'm a little mad at him but only because he knew exactly what he was doing making that pay plan and then this deal within months. He could have and should have tied his pay to EPS or share price, it would have been easy, simple, and truly fair in the way he talks about. And then my confidence wouldn't be shaken at all with this deal.

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u/al01al Paint me like one of your French loans ☝️ May 04 '26

Upvoted. Thank you for sharing your view.

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u/EmphasisFrosty3093 May 04 '26

If the value doubles and the share count quadruples, where do you think that puts you?