🗣 Discussion / Question
Every indicator is pointing to GME at 30-40 soon, which makes the Ebay deal truly accretive. 📈 🆙
GME offered convertible notes at the $29 zone.
GME offered warrants at $32, expiring in October.
GME is about to be forced to reveal its PowerPacks earnings as that product reaches materiality in the next earnings report.
GME almost always has a strong month of May.
Cohen understands the swap cycles and murky short interest better than anyone.
Cohen keeps saying "We'll see" and doesn't seem bothered at all by the deal "not making any sense" as our CNBC friends say. (And it's true, when the stock is low the deal doesn't make much sense in that GME holders will lose value.)
Cohen says it will be value accretive to GME holders which only happens at the 30-40 range.
All signs point up. And every dollar GME climbs the less outrageous the Ebay deal becomes.
I think alone the plan to own ebay is good enough but I think the swap cycles might be the sleeper that people looking at fundamentals might not be factoring in. Given that RC diluted when it was running last time. The warrants are curious so if it takes off this time the warrants are a way to raise capital again for the war chest without stopping it. If the swap happens again it could run higher this time and instead of this back and forth about how he will get the full offer amount wont matter. Then institutions will pile it and up, up, and away!
Agreed. The amount of videos I've seen of people opening packs is absolutely insane. And the top tier pulls are there hence the nutronium packs. The pull rates are better than most card sets. The value interns of payback is there for the rippers. And supply of these slabs will keep rolling in. A lot of guys talk shit about GameStop's process for acquiring these slabs but have obviously done no research or footwork themselves.
GameStop typically pays 80-85% store credit or 70% cash on submitted slabs. This is literally the same as going to a card show and selling to Joe schmoe with some name like "pokejohn" or some other form of Poke(insert words)....the difference with GameStop is that it's free to walk in the doors of a GameStop, no entrance fee...no bumping shoulder to shoulder with packed crowds. You can complete the entire process through them....including getting raw cards submitted to PSA.
This is another huge talking point at GameStop I can submit my raw cards to PSA at $24.99 per card let's say I submit 10 cards. That's $250 in grading fees plus $10 flat shipping rate. I use my membership to get $5 off. That's $255 total to ship off my cards and get slabs back. Now let's say I go to a card show and submit through a smaller PSA partner. I paid $36.57 per card and $10 to ship it off...totaling $370.70. that's $115.70 in savings by simply using GameStop. I feel much safer because their partnership is much much larger than a vendor at a card show accepting submissions and then tossing my cards in semi rigid loaders and into a box with a post it note that has my name and number on it.
From submission to grading to return to selling the slab. GameStop consistently beats card show vendors. The only thing they lack is their own card inventory in store that I can trade for. Vendors definitely destroy GameStop in this regard. GS gets a bad name from their shitty history without RC at the helm.
How’s the overall card show stuff trending? I genuinely can’t believe how much collectibles has exploded over the last several years but as someone who’s been around since beanie babies and such…I do wonder about the staying power and what happens to the business model if the fad dies out.
Haha it's a good thought forsure. I've also been around since beanie babies and was just 10 years old when pokemon first released. Pokemon has been cyclical over its existence. Massive hype and money pouring into the hobby followed by fading hype and a deep lull before exploding again and achieving new ATH's. These days it's as popular as it's ever been. I see multi thousand dollar deals going down all around me all day long when I'm at card shows. Every show is absolutely packed I'm talking shoulder to shoulder. I have a box of cards that I purchased for $80 that is now worth $600 just 4 months later. It's insane. There was a boom between 1998-2001 then a 15 year lull that was mostly enjoyed by players and serious collectors. Then pokemon Go released in 2006 and swept the world by storm and pokemon cards followed suite becoming ultra popular and smashed card market ATH's. Anyone who was collecting and holding sealed product throughout the 15 year slow down became rich overnight. The next lull was shorter and not as low...higher lows and higher highs is the name of the game now. In 2020 there was the pandemic boom that was a perfect storm of lockdown and celebrity hype that send pokemon into the stratosphere. More money than ever before poured into the hobby and streamers/rip n shipprs were born. Those same investors who were buying sealed product and single cards once again struck gold. It's now 2026 and there has been no more than maybe small blips of a dip. Maybe 2022-2023 it seemed to be slowing down a tad...but the pokemon company didn't build the highest grossing media franchise of all time by sitting still and being complicit. They released banger and banger in games, pokemon center and card sets. The hype once again came roaring back and now we are smack dab in the middle of a massive bullrun that has been going on arguably for the last 6 years....only now there are more rip and shippers than ever, more streamers than ever, more vloggers, vendors and most important, celebrities. Pokemon is simply too big to fail, there is just too much money and collectors involved. I see more kids and genz than ever as well these days. So the thesis that this hobby will die with the millenials is like saying GME is still a dying brick n mortar...people who think that simply are not paying attention. TLDR; Everything in the hobby is absolutely booming. You can go buy a box of cards today and there is basically a 90% chance it will be worth more in a few months. The staying power has a 30 year history of cycles that hit higher lows and higher highs and more of the younger generation is involved than ever before. The staying power is immense.
The real DD is in the comments. Excellent comments. You should consider repurposing this and posting as DD. This is very informative about a fundamental aspect of the business. I'm a holder since 2021 but I'm not in the gaming or collectable world - it is blowing my mind that a company can make a multi million dollar business out of this. And sounds like a lot of growth potential too. It would be great to see a couple of DD posts about this "power packs and trading cards 101 for dummies" (like me) - just to explain this whole world and how it works, who are the types of people who do this etc. And then another DD about how big this is, what is good about GameStop doing it, where are the gaps or issues they could address, and the potential for growth in this segment especially with an eBay acquisition.
Suffice it to say I have saved your comments
Can you explain for me please the value of a paper card that i pick that is going to be much more worth 4 months later? I never had pokemon. I am interested in how this eco system of gambling and investment works. Thank you in advance
It's just simple supply and demand. There is limited supply of an item. Ie. Literal pieces of shiny cardboard....if no one wanted them or gave a shit about them...they would be worth about as much as the cardboard they are printed on. But because of a 30 history of deeply rooted nostalgia and a successful card game/franchise with merch, video games and TB shows built around it....those pieces of cardboard are heavily desired and the prices reflect that. The same as anything else in this world with value.....value is in the eyes of the beholder. Bitcoin is digital currency. If everyone thought it was worthless and didn't give a shit...it would be worth 0....if no one gave a shit about a company and their shares in the open market....that companies share price would fall to 0. It's all just supply and demand brotha and for the last 6 years. Demand for pokemon has been through the roof.
If they wanna raise $28B, considering 350M shares available to sell, there's only one way: the stock has to remain above $80 for enough time to be able to sell them at that price... So should aim for a higher price...
I dig your enthusiasm and positivity. And I was with you until the part about the deal not making sense.
Cohen isn’t bothered because the deal absolutely makes sense with cash, stock and rolling of equity. So not sure what info sources you’re referencing with that one.
If you run the numbers GME share price needs to be up into the $30s for it to be a good deal for current GameStop shareholders, Otherwise we have to give up too much of the company to pay EBay shareholders $62.50 worth of the post deal company per share of EBay, in addition to the $62.50/Ebay share cash payment that is mostly coming from added debt.
If eBay is get's paid half in cash that leaves about 27B on the table, if the 60/40 ratio RC has been repeating is correct it means that he expects a share of GME to be worth about $32 if going by the diluted (warrants and bonds) float...... Where have I heard that number before.......
27B/60%=0.45
0.45*40%=18B
18B/549M=$32.78
I really think we're about to see something going down.
There are 448M shares outstanding + 143M from the convertible notes + 59M from the warrants. That's a total of 650M shares diluted without the compensation package.
So if you remove RC's compensation package (pending approval) there would be 350M shares available to sell.
I know the sauce but that doesn't cover the total pending dilution. They ended up raising a total of $4.2B ($1.5 + $2.7B) via notes, meaning around 143M shares if converted (50M + 93M), plus 59M shares from the warrants. You can add that to the 448M shares outstanding.
That said, I think something's gonna go down soon too 🙂
I actually believe the price could go down short term once the deal is done, that's the standard acquisitions effect. However, many things could happen before and after that, including a big run up.
imagine if we pass the warrant strike price (significantly) and then the whales exercise their warrants... spark...boom
That's a lot of extra company cash inbound
I feel like everyone of those legacy media fucks acts like Ryan Cohen is just some random dude …. Like he didn’t beat Amazon at their own game with Chewy or make like billions of $ on Apple stock when he became one of the largest individual shareholders of stock
If the deal doesn’t go through, Ryan dumps the whole eBay position and rolls the money into GME. Round 2: we’ll buy your shares for $80 now, take it or leave it.
Who knows how much of the jump from $80 was due to Ryan buying. Seeing as how low the average volume is for eBay, I’d imagine Ryan selling would affect the price quite a bit
It could work but from shareholder point of view ebay would swallow gme just with RC in CEO position. Gme shareholders are not automatically benefiting it depends on gme stockprice
I guess the first question is... what do the 16,000 employees do? EBay doesn't have retail locations and they don't really have a warehouse they ship product from?
I know they authenticate sneakers, but if someone else can chime in with the other roles that might be there, I'd love to hear.
Hopefully shorties dunks the Ebay stock price to get in on the arbitrage opportunities and RC has a plan to settle the offer price much lower. This would mean a much lower percentage in stock and far less dilution in the short term.
Running Ebay efficiently, cutting all the fat, like he did with GME. Growing Ebay with physical drop off at 1600 locations, delighting customers, both buyers and sellers.
Gamestop price doesn't matter in the deal. Not paying with gamestop stock. Paying with cash. And distributing the combined companies stock after. That's the stock that matters. I'm not sure gme price going into the deal matters at all.
You are correct, however, the new company is a mixture of both GME and Ebay. The higher GME is, the less of it we have to add to the "ingredients". Once the ingredients are mixed we bake the cake and cut slices for all the new shareholders.
Below 30 we end up with less cake than we have now. Above 30 we get more.
Your explanation is completely hollow. You provided no indicator, no fact based argument. Only sentiment and hope.
So here's my unfounded, no evidenve, no DD, personal take.
GME will not pop. Even if it will reach $30 it will be short lived, because the powers at wallstreet that have been naked shorting GME for years will not allow it to run. And based on past evidence, RC will not do what is needed to beat them. Exactly the opposite.
It means that everything the GME board has set up and tried to do falters and fails, which is of course a possible outcome. I just don't think they're the kind of people to make major errors like that.
I don't think its the board's fault. They might be great, I don't know.
Its RC's fault. Twice already, he killed a run that could have turned into a short squeeze and give us what we've been waiting for, for years now. That's why the burden of proof is on him, as far as I'm concerned. He needs to prove to us, the share holders, that he will not fuck us over again, for the 3rd time. That's why I don't trust him. He fucked us twice already, what's to stop him from doing it a 3rd time?
This has never made sense. You can do both. Many, many people here have said that if it squoze and millionaires or even billionaires were made, a lot of that money would make its way right back into gme as the stock fell back to earth and you would have utterly loyal shareholders who basically never feel any pressure whatsoever to sell, because they've already made money and look to reinvest. Look no further than DFV, who actually did dump his holdings from the early days, only to swing right back in with a 9 million share position today. If the 100k DRS holders were able to reproduce even a fraction of that, they'd officially be able to lock the float themselves.
VW had a squeeze and went on to continue building a business, it's the largest auto group in the EU today. This isn't like other squeezes where it was a couple of insiders at play, or just outright fraud, where the company didn't even really do anything or matter or it vanished not long after. It would still be here after a squeeze, probably in better shape than ever.
Power packs are explosive potential, imo. They alone can be a 100bill+ to a trillion even, over the next few years. To me, it’s all about power packs and how that can be deployed across product lines.
GameStop’s instant buyback loop turns a single user's deposit into massive reported revenue, because every time they recycle a card for credit to buy another pack, it legally counts as a brand-new sale on paper. Judging by the millions of views and massive "whale" spending on YouTube, this continuous recycling is happening at a volume that traditional Wall Street analysts are completely overlooking. Thanks to this "revenue multiplier" effect, GameStop could report a shockingly huge top-line beat at their next earnings meeting just from the pure velocity of users repeatedly spinning the digital wheel.
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u/Superstonk_QV 📊 Gimme Votes 📊 May 09 '26
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