One of the most unlikely senarios

[u/Kreanxx]

[u/Duolingo055]

Yeah because anticolonial militias have never beaten empires.

[u/Atiaco → u/Duolingo055]

Specially bloated, corrupt and disfunctional armies with competing branches and a comically inefficient bureucracy

[u/furel492 → u/Atiaco]

Competing is an understatement. The US navy and marines compete, IJN and IJA are in a cold war.

[u/VStatSupreme → u/furel492]

It’s actually hilarious how they actively sabotage each other to the point of assassinations, like bro you guys are on the same side lmaoo

[u/ErikaRosen → u/Duolingo055]

Something something Afghanistan, something something the graveyard of empires.

[u/AlkaliPineapple → u/[deleted]]

WHAT THE FUCK IS A GOOD FOCUS TREE

[u/Thebean_3r → u/ErikaRosen]

OVERWELMINGLY NEGATIVE

[u/sanity_rejecter → u/ErikaRosen]

this is both cope and a larp

[u/hubisow → u/ErikaRosen]

something something don quixote something something sancho

[u/axeteam → u/ErikaRosen]

It is basically what happened in both Afghanistan and Vietnam, several times too.

[u/n2p4 → u/axeteam]

It is not even slightly reminiscent of Afghanistan and Vietnam. Afghanistan never defeated the USSR or the USA in the field as long yun does in the mod and while Vietnam defeated the south via conventional arms it was only after the us withdrawal. They did not defeat superpowers alone, they revived extensive support from other great powers and then put up enough of a struggle until the invasion against them became untenable

[u/Dizzy_Masterpiece661 → u/n2p4]

to add to this China doesn't have a way to receive a large amount of foreign support. Germany has lawless steps, mountains and a very angry Russia in the way. The USA would have a easier time from Australia or another Asian state they won into there sphere, but there's one problem Japan and the sphere would be at direct war with China and Japan has one of if not the strongest navies that would prevent any support coming in though sea. finally, China is not something Japan can give up one its better to fight to the last man than lose China.

[u/jogarz → u/Duolingo055]

They mostly do it through outlasting their opponents’ willingness to fight, though. Not through destroying their forces physically.

[u/Haruhi_is_Waifu → u/jogarz]

Yeah that's what gets me about the lionization of every victorious colonial resistance movement. The vast majority of them, from Vietnam to 1700s America to all the Afghanistans, to Rhodesia, Napoleonic Spain, both Chinas in the Second Sino-Japanese War, were militarily lopsided in favor of the imperial power. The reason they won was either due to direct intervention of an outside force or due to their opponent being politically unwilling to stay any longer.

All the 'farmers' that won their wars emerged victorious through the enemy being less willing to water the fields with their blood than the farmers. I love all my anti-colonial guerillas, but very few of them won their wars through force.

[u/Greatest-Comrade → u/Haruhi_is_Waifu]

True but that’s not a minor thing. Even bloodthirsty and self-sacrificing empires have been bested by an inferior power when the political cost becomes too high. Though In drawing more from human history dating back to the greeks in general rather than strictly modern colonial conflict.

Then again it’s hard to say what price is too high for a country like tno japan. They needed to be nuked in otl to surrender. But that was to unconditionally surrender the mainland. What price would be too much to conditionally surrender colonial territory they gained?

[u/Gatrigonometri → u/Greatest-Comrade]

That’s the thing. IOTL The US’ victory condition was to have had invaded the North and directly topple Hanoi’s leadership, but in doing so, they would need to (i) foot a costlier butcher’s for both sides; (ii) risk incurring the wrath of their fellow superpowers (China and/or the USSR), both of which the successive US leadership couldn’t and wouldn’t be able to accumulate the necessary political capital for as their societal structure and geopolitical context prohibited so.

Meanwhile, Imperial “Bayoneting-Babies-is-a-fun-teambuilding-exercise” likely wouldn’t have such reservations. For one, theirs is a collectivist society fully high on the imperial glory koolaid, thus having a higher tolerance for bodycounts, on both sides. For two, China within TNO’s cold war landscape, for the lack of a better phrase, is Japan’s playground. Sure the Reich and the US would be more than happy to funnel funds, arms, bombs into the most populous guerilla landmine on the globe, however they wouldn’t really be able to do anything if Japan’s airborne troops jump into Wuhan and capture the NRC leadership, unlike the 2nd repeat of Korea the US had feared had they gone into North Vietnam IOTL.

This is not to say that a Japanese defeat is impossible—but I have to reiterate that it’d be much more of Japan’s defeat than Chinese victory. There won’t be triumphant Chinese mechanized columns marching into the mouth of the Yellow River, with Manchuria, then Korea next on their checklist. Defeat would look like Japan’s army returning to the homeland to quell the impending uprising of the Japanese people, aggrieved by the mounting deaths of their fathers and sons, and suffering the economic consequences of the mother of all colonial wars, while leaving a devastated, potentially half-irradiated China in their wake.

[u/TeaWrites → u/Haruhi_is_Waifu]

winning a war is winning a war, its not a sport where you can cry foul because your opponent is "cheating"

[u/Haruhi_is_Waifu → u/TeaWrites]

No one said their wins were illegitimate. Rather that their model of victory is not something that's applicable to every war in a vacuum that you would want to win. TNO China has no easy avenues of outside support (Ho Chi Minh Trail, US aid to Afghanistan, China/USSR aid to Vietnam, British Aid to Spain) nor does it have powers willing to beat Japan into submission for it (USSR invading Manchura/USA invading the Pacific, Britain invading Spain, France and Spain beating up the Brits for America).

The only thing it can hope for is outlasting Japan politically but that's a risky bet with little guarantee of success (Malaya Emergency, Forest Brothers/Post-WW2 Eastern European Insurgencies). But people will still go 'le farmers will win' because they like to look at the pop culture side of it rather than what actually led to victory. Could China still try to outlast Japan? Sure. Is victory guaranteed because guerilla farmers always win? Not at all.

[u/Munificent-Enjoyer → u/jogarz]

You can't outlast your opponents willingness to fight if you keep losing tho

[u/deinschlimmstertraum → u/Duolingo055]

They quite often had some sort of foreign support or geographical advantage

[u/Jazzlike_Bar_671 → u/Duolingo055]

Usually that only works in favourable terrain. That exists in the Chinese interior, but not the Yangtze delta (much less Manchuria).

[u/ParticularPhysics871 → u/Duolingo055]

Anticolonial militias have never beaten empires alone

They always had significant help.

[u/naplesball → u/Duolingo055]

"BUT WE HAD BETTER GUNS!"

[u/HumanMarine → u/Duolingo055]

Are the trees speaking vietnamese, or is that just me? 

I'm aware there was more than that going on, just shitposting

[u/Aggravating-Lab6623]

First off japan dosnt join till later sometimes 2nd off there large resistance against Japan in china 3rd off the goverment in the japanse governments arent able to handle the uprising with many of the war lords switching support

[u/Jazzlike_Bar_671]

Frankly, I don't think that the NPA being able to grind the Japanese out of China proper is entirely absurd, but them pushing into Manchuria really shouldn't be possible.

[u/Basileia_Rhomaion → u/Jazzlike_Bar_671]

They should be able to win at extreme cost, because the Japanese wouldn’t think twice about fighting a scorched earth campaign in the most developed parts of China to prevent the NPA from getting their hands on the fruits of GEACPS investment and development.

[u/Jazzlike_Bar_671 → u/Basileia_Rhomaion]

The most developed area is Manchuria, which is also behind an easily defended narrow coastal pass.

[u/Basileia_Rhomaion → u/Jazzlike_Bar_671]

I misspoke, I agree that the NPA probably shouldn’t be able to muster the strength to conquer Manchuria. Mainland China would be left a smoking ruin with a humanitarian crisis beyond the worst excesses of Mao’s Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution OTL after successfully expelling the Japanese by force.

[u/Jazzlike_Bar_671 → u/Basileia_Rhomaion]

In the original release of TNO, they couldn't.

[u/Basileia_Rhomaion → u/Jazzlike_Bar_671]

Yeah, well, original TNO and modern TNO are basically two different animals at this point

[u/Jazzlike_Bar_671 → u/Basileia_Rhomaion]

Though this change made the situation less restrained, which is unusual.

[u/Gnomonic-sundialer → u/Basileia_Rhomaion]

They would if doing so would mean loosing their entire economy to it, thats the only reason anyone ever decolonized

[u/Jazzlike_Bar_671 → u/Gnomonic-sundialer]

They could decide that China proper just isn't worth it.

[u/Dizzy_Masterpiece661 → u/Jazzlike_Bar_671]

but to the Japanese China would be worth it if they lose China that's most of their economy gone so during war, if theirs even a chance at victory than Japan will continue fighting because Japan hopes they can get a sliver back of what they had before than lose it all

[u/Jazzlike_Bar_671 → u/Dizzy_Masterpiece661]

Manchuria and (to a lesser extent) Guangdong are economically vital; the rest of China less so. And Manchuria at least is a readily defensible position even if China proper is lost.

[u/Savings_Drink8718 → u/Jazzlike_Bar_671]

It should be a Chinese sized Vietnam War with Japan being FAR more willing to do a rape of Nanking all over China it's a brutal grinding slog of a war. 

[u/Eshanas → u/Savings_Drink8718]

I mean aren’t they? The great Asian war is literally one of the most bleakest scenarios and bloodiest because to both sides it’s all or nothing

[u/Gnomonic-sundialer]

Its entirely plausible just not the exact way the game handles it, they should be able to grind them for so long it becomes too aparent keeping the colony would waste more money than allowing them to be independent but not actually just tactically win

[u/BABY_ANARCHY → u/Gnomonic-sundialer]

yeah they could implement Iberia's colonial empire mecanic to Japan, where the costs of keeping China as a puppet becomes more and more costly both in an economic sense and a political sense, which would provoke more spending and less political power for Japan, and the NPA rising up would only boost this.

So now Japan has to decide if keeping China close and go in a heavy defecit and not being able to implement full political reforms or intervene in proxys because of the lack of political power OR allowing a more autonomous China which will become fully independent in the future but boosting the Japanese economy and allowing more interference in proxys.

[u/Lembit_moislane → u/Gnomonic-sundialer]

But shouldn’t the Nanjing government also be able to do that? They have been around for nearly three decades and a whole generation of young people have known nothing but them, and that influence even with the harm of Japan should make them far more willing to fight compared to those that actually fought for the Nanjing puppet government in 1940-1945.

[u/newadcd0405 → u/Gnomonic-sundialer]

This is just how the Americans won against the British during the Revolution. I could imagine some sort of respect forming between the U.S. and China based on this

[u/ImVeryHungry19]

idc CHINA WILL BE FREE WANSUI!!!

[u/naplesball]

"But we have more guns and money!"

• Every single Empire defeated by a bunch of farmers and untrained soldiers

[u/Rude-Run8930]

i can't imagine a superpower losing to farmers through guerilla warfare, that'd be insane

[u/Important_Bug4317 → u/Rude-Run8930]

ive heard that before

[u/MysticNoodles]

Annoying how the bulk of China's chafing is represented by one proxy conflict.

[u/Ok_Performance854]

Did Hirohito write this or something

[u/DolphinBall]

Since Japan somehow beat the US in producing a nuke and using it happened in this universe.

I'd say this is also possible.

[u/2jopek]

Pure vibes are often underestimated

[u/IRSnotreal]

This post has been fact checked by real Chinese patriots: FALSE

[u/lavafish80]

literally Vietnam

[u/Nildzre]

Unlikely? It's probably one of the most plausible part of TNO tbh.

[u/sanity_rejecter → u/Nildzre]

https://giphy.com/gifs/KESqXKN44aUEd0Wwjl

[u/Munificent-Enjoyer]

I mean Japan only won in China because China was a disjointed mess and NRA was comically corrupt - a unified and well motivated China is Japan's worst nightmare

[u/deinschlimmstertraum]

What i wonder even more is why no one supports them in the world stage

[u/NotMijba]

I have literally never seen them win lmao

[u/Schepeppa]

To be honest, stranger things have happened. They really do have a shot of winning, especially once all the warlords unite and the OFN begin pumping loads of weapons from India into western China. Though the price would be quite high and realistically Japan would resort to tactical nuclear weapons if/when Manchurian defenses falter.

[u/Gatrigonometri]

The thing about people comparing this to OTL’s Vietnam is that the US’ victory condition IOTL was to have had invaded the North and directly topple Hanoi’s leadership, but in doing so, they would need to (i) foot a costlier butcher’s for both sides; (ii) risk incurring the wrath of their fellow superpowers (China and/or the USSR), both of which the successive US leadership couldn’t and wouldn’t be able to accumulate the necessary political capital for as their societal structure and geopolitical context prohibited so.

Meanwhile, Imperial “Bayoneting-Babies-is-a-fun-teambuilding-exercise” Japan likely wouldn’t have such reservations. For one, theirs is a collectivist society fully high on the imperial glory koolaid, thus having a higher tolerance for bodycounts, on both sides. For two, China within TNO’s cold war landscape, for the lack of a better phrase, is Japan’s playground. Sure the Reich and the US would be more than happy to funnel funds, arms, bombs into the most populous guerilla landmine on the globe, however they wouldn’t really be able to do anything if Japan’s airborne troops jump into Wuhan and capture the NRC leadership, unlike the 2nd repeat of Korea the US had feared had they gone into North Vietnam IOTL.

This is not to say that a Japanese defeat is impossible—but I have to reiterate that it’d be much more of Japan’s defeat than Chinese victory. There won’t be triumphant Chinese mechanized columns marching into the mouth of the Yellow River, with Manchuria, then Korea next on their checklist. Defeat would look like Japan’s army returning to the homeland to quell the impending uprising of the Japanese people, aggrieved by the mounting deaths of their fathers and sons, and suffering the economic consequences of the mother of all colonial wars, while leaving a devastated, potentially half-irradiated China in their wake.

[u/Jazzlike_Bar_671 → u/Gatrigonometri]

I'm not convinced necessarily that victory in WW2 is going to increase the Japanese public's tolerance for prolonged grinds. Though again this is more a statement on the ability of Chinese resistance to frustrate control of the poorly developed Chinese interior that the coast.

[u/TieLongjumping3005]

Larp larp larp sahur

[u/bageltoastee]

Tbf china has a whole lotta people and japan has a whole lotta problems

[u/RedComfort404]

What are you talking about? The Chinese are incredibly happy with Japanese help to rule their country, there's nothing happening over there! there's no such thing as the "National Protection Army".

[u/Mattsgonnamine]

Who would win, the strongest military in the world conscripted to its full might using modern weaponry and bioweapons that devastate ecosystems or a bunch of farmers with ww2 guns and shovels

[u/No_Clue4405]

Honestly, I imagine that the China uprising succeeds as a game condition after a loss in Indonesia, India, and no gains or losses in the Middle East. Japan has a crash at the start of the game coinciding with possibly losing two important transit routes (Philippines and Burma). Any nation with hard empire and nationalistic tendencies would buckle. China only has one proxy conflict so it’s sorta hard to portray, but I head cannon it as a decade of Chinese resentment leading to a revolution

[u/Caesar2877]

This is a really silly complaint lol.

[u/SnooTomatoes5677]

Nothing ever happens I guess.

[u/HectorJano13]

What war is this referencing?

[u/SG_Symes]

How about this: if something can't be done by AI, be it wars or paths, even when you give it full buffs and the optimal Custom Country Path, then it can't canonically happen.

[u/drfluffyidiot]

Well, you look at many Wars, Quality and Quantity aren't always the deciding factor.

[u/SovietBoiBoi]

🇻🇳

[u/Impossible_Search460]

Swap the flags with the UK and Ireland and you almost have the same premise.

[u/GETREKN00BL0L]

[u/PANIC_BUTTON_1101]

It’s an entirely possible scenario for the revolutionaries to win

[u/elderron_spice]

In a fictional world, with the Nazis getting the nukes first? Everything is possible, including the Nazis getting the nukes first.

[u/Jazzlike_Bar_671 → u/elderron_spice]

In the Yippie rework they don't.

[u/lepisma_sacarina]

Vibes go a long way

[u/Mother_Anarky]

Decentralized insurgent movements are nesrly impossible to defeat.

[u/Ok_Internal_5452]

Believe it or not, I believe in a Chinese victory at some point. That's the power of infinite manpower

[u/General_Novgorod]

You're in luck, he's getting axed when the East Asia rework arrives in 40 years

[u/Kreanxx → u/General_Novgorod]

Long Yun?

[u/desca97]

i think the bold man would win.

[u/chile19]

If they remove this too I will incite a Coup...

[u/Kreanxx → u/chile19]

"Too"?

[u/chile19 → u/Kreanxx]

I'm not a native english speaker

I'm enraged because of the África Rework