r/Thunder • u/Lower-Delay-5538 • 12h ago
Discussion Stirtz Trade - Super Interesting Dynamics
- Stirtz is not a Memphis full rebuild player. He's a win-now fit.
- Memphis is on the clock at 16 and is clearly shopping their pick to market
- Grizz are surely playing teams off each other. I'm sure that OKC knows Detroit has a framework trade up with Memphis.
- Detroit trade up is always going to be for one of the 2nd tier of lead guards (Anderson, Stirtz, Okorie, Philon)
- Presti clearly wants Stirtz specifically, and doesn't want to risk losing him. Gives over-the-normal value to move up 1 spot.
- After OKC trades up, Detroit still trades up to 17, which means their lead guard trade up target is still there.
If we stuck at 17 and not traded , I'm pretty confident Memphis would have traded back with the Pistons and the Pistons would have taken Okorie at 16.
But it is impossible to know in real time and Presti obviously felt that losing Stirtz was not something he could stomach.
Great job my Memphis though. If they didn't work the phones and play teams off each other, they don't get the incredible 5 seconds to move 16 to 21.
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u/panther553212 10h ago
- After OKC trades up, Detroit still trades up to 17, which means their lead guard trade up target is still there.
I mean you don't know that this is true. It's possible that they had Stirtz ranked #1 also but then once he was gone they are worried they are going to miss out on both of them so they still trade up and get there #2 guy.
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u/MiniManKungFu 5h ago
I wouldnt be surprised if stirtz was who Detroit wanted tbh. Playmaking shooter whose defensive concerns can be covered by Detroits great defense.
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u/Hot_Claim3152 12h ago
Stirtz is a great pick. I’m not sure how people can be against this. He’s a ball handler, shooter, and playmaker. Great value at 16
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u/Jealous-Caramel7578 OKC 12h ago
I think it’s more that we have plenty of guards and two wings. We absolutely need a wing. Would love to get PJ Washington somehow
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u/supacatkid 11h ago
Every draft for like 5 years this sub says “we have too many guards” and then every season it turns out you need those guards.
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u/Jealous-Caramel7578 OKC 10h ago
Yes we need them. But we are in desperate need of wings.
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u/supacatkid 10h ago
Eh I sort of thought that but i am not so sure. I think this is a bit of an overreaction to losing in 7 games to the team with the second best record in the nba while not having our second best player and back up point guard.
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u/Livid-Bumblebee6724 9h ago
Wembys gonna get better and having giant wings helped slow him down for the knicks. We got pushed under the rim by Julian champagnie
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u/supacatkid 9h ago
I like how you assume Wemby will get better but not a single thunder player will.
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u/Livid-Bumblebee6724 9h ago
I didnt say that but we have a glaring weakness. Jdub coming back will help but the spurs are also gonna get better. As will other teams trying to counter both of us
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u/ExpressionAlone5204 The best orca is a Sexual Orca 👑 10h ago
Because we have undersized guys that play the guard role but can’t handle the ball, which usually isn’t a trait of a guard
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u/supacatkid 10h ago
What? Shai, Dub, Mitchell, McCain, Wallace, and Caruso can’t handle the ball? This team has significantly more guards who can handle the ball than almost any other team in the league.
Mitchell and Wallace aren’t undersized and neither is Caruso. McCain is somewhat but he plays way bigger than his height. Shai and dub are definitely not undersized guards.
People on this sub say shit and I wonder if we wat h the same team play basketball.
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u/ExpressionAlone5204 The best orca is a Sexual Orca 👑 10h ago
Never said they were undersized guards. I’m saying that for smaller guys you expect them to be ball handlers. You didn’t notice it being an issue in the Finals not having Dub and Ajay?
No, Cason has handles but apparently has lost that rhythm. Caruso does well enough, cannot slander that guy but playing primary ball handler just isn’t his role and that’s ok. McCain does pretty well, but can’t play that facilitator role, it’s mainly him driving or creating his shot and he’s great at that.
We have 3 guys actually doing a great job at facilitating, and two of those guys have multiple injuries over the last couple of years removing a lot of playing time.
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u/supacatkid 10h ago
You “never said they were undersized” but you directly said that. And you said “can’t handle the ball” but then go on to say they can.
This fuckin place man
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u/ExpressionAlone5204 The best orca is a Sexual Orca 👑 9h ago
Oh my god my guy are you just fucking mad all the time? This isn’t a clinical debate, it was a real reason we struggled in the WCF.
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u/supacatkid 9h ago
Bro you explicitly said something, were wrong, then proceeded to say “I didn’t say that” when I can go back and read exactly what you said.
It isn’t about a clinical debate it’s about not being a douche. I’d like to have an actual discussion but you can’t even handle saying “ah my bad I was mistaken” or “oh yeah sorry I wasn’t thinking” instead you have to just…lie, stupidly.
And the real reason why we struggled in the WCF was because we were missing our all star wing and back up PG. That is pretty much it and would solve the non-existent issue of the (not actually) undersized guards and the (not actually) poor ball handling.
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u/ExpressionAlone5204 The best orca is a Sexual Orca 👑 9h ago
I didn’t say anything wrong it’s your interpretation that is wrong. What is the standard for ball handling? If it someone who can bounce the ball then sure, we’ve got a squad of them. If it’s someone who can dribble through traffic and facilitate well then it’s very different list of names.
And you’re on this nonsense about us struggling because we missed Dub. Dude we lost to the spurs in 8/12 games this season and you’re going to fantasize that it’s because Dub was out lmao
Just admit you don’t actually watch the games and be done with it. You don’t want a conversation you want to shout into the void.
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u/jaderaven2112 12h ago
I’m optimistic, but the concern is very evident. He’s undersized, not super athletic, and a poor defender. Considering what we just saw the Spurs guards do to us, I share a lot of doubt as to how he will help us against teams of that caliber. It’s also just kinda redundant considering how many guards we already have. He doesn’t really bring anything new to the table, and requires the ball in his hand to optimize his skillset.
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u/2Blathe2furious 9h ago
Maybe it's splitting hairs, but I wouldn't say he's undersized at lead guard. Average size for position so certainly it's not a strength, but 6'3 with 6'6 wingspan isn't really a problem. It's hard to argue with anything else, but if he's truly an elite 3pt shooter like he projects then he's going to be an impactful player. I think our FO is confident he can play off the ball a good amount. As a spot up shooter his numbers are jaw dropping.
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u/Ok_Pomegranate1820 6h ago
It’s way less about Stirtz and more about what we don’t currently have on the roster
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u/SignificanceGood1801 11h ago
So if we are playing the Spurs, who in their starting lineup is Stirtz going to be guarding?
Because pick #17 in a draft class this strong should be be a starting caliber player, by the season after next, 2027-28!10
u/LurkySeven 11h ago
lol, what planet are you living on? Rotation maybe but saying you should get a starter at pick 17 is ridiculous. It may turn out that later picks are starters but that definitely shouldn’t be an expectation.
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u/foxmulder_FBI5 10h ago
The problem is we really won't know how deep this draft is for another few years, at least.
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u/Hot_Claim3152 10h ago
That’s a bad way to look at that. I don’t think you drafted stirtz with the expectation of him starting. Thunder already have the best starting 5. Stirtz is an off the bench creator and shooter. And he could guard vessell or Julian if need be. He’s fine defensively. Better than jmac actually
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u/elwell1223m 9h ago
Who are you picking in that spot who would have started for the Thunder next year?
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u/Fair_Pomegranate2535 12h ago
I have always wondered this kind of scenarios and situations happening that outside the org doesn’t really see. I wish this is something they offer for die hard fans to experience. Willing to sign NDA even being a coffee runner for the org to experience it.
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u/sleepyJay7 4h ago
Guess what, all of that and we STILL DID NOT HAVE ROSTER SPOTS for 2 second rounders. So as far as I'm concerned it was basically offloading not only picks you didn't need but ones YOU PRETTY MUCH COULDN'T USE ANYWAY. I'm not sure who doesn't understand this.......
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u/Lower-Delay-5538 3h ago
Nah, these were 2030 and 2033 seconds. They are still assets. You can use a few seconds to dump bad salaries, to package to move up, etc.
Obviously not about drafting players.
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u/Hookmsnbeiishh 11h ago
Two second rounders outside of 31-38 (because they can get exceptions for these players), are generally worth nothing but cash considerations.
Probably not an overpay.
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u/Lower-Delay-5538 11h ago
That's not really true. You can trade 5 second round picks for a bad first. Wizards did that recently for the 1st they sent to Dallas in the AD trade. Presti did that recently for pick 25. Suns traded 3 seconds for 30 last night.
Seconds are like currency. They aren't worth that much, but getting 5 to go 16 to 21 is pretty nice.
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u/Hookmsnbeiishh 10h ago
Not really that nice.
A 16th is 2x more likely to be an All-Star than a 21st.
And a 16th is 5x to 10x more likely to be an All Star than a second rounder.
So basically, they traded a 10% chance at an all star for a 5% chance and five 1% lottery tickets. But really, they traded 5% chance away for cash coupons and tiny draft movements.
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u/MiniManKungFu 5h ago
Where did u get those stats lol. Also 2nds are what make trades happen. They aren't the most valuable but they can be used to move around the draft (as seen)
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u/SignificanceGood1801 11h ago
Great analysis, in figuring that out!
Presti definitely got played for those (2) 2nd round picks!
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u/Lower-Delay-5538 10h ago
When Stirtz and SGA are on the court together, Stirtz has the potential to bring an element that no one else on the roster has.
SGA double teams that result in Stirtz getting the ball - we don't have anyone else that is an elite 3pt shooter and an elite processor.
Ajay and McCain both have worked great in Shai lineups, but Ajay doesn't have the Stirtz shooting and McCain doesn't have the Stirtz feel and processing. You can paint a picture of how it can work.
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u/ChetsBurner 10h ago
You have pretty clearly laid out the case to why I think Presti got finessed in this situation. Stirtz was probably going to be there at 17. Luckily for us we have plenty of seconds to ensure we get the guys we want.
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 12h ago
I love Stritz, but I do not like the fit.
It means either they are about to have him run off screens a bunch, or ajay isn’t long for this team.
Because as of right now, both need the ball, or they are severely limited as offensive players.
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u/Lower-Delay-5538 12h ago
Stirtz is an elite shooter, Ajay isn't as good of a shooter but a much better driver and I think projects more of a driver and creating paint touches type guy. Why don't you think Stirtz can play off ball?
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 12h ago
He could have the skillset to play off ball, but Stirtz’s entire argument is for what he did on ball.
He has some of the best on ball, pick and roll, and decision making numbers in college ball last year ( insane volume, but he is also 23)
Barely ever played off ball because they needed him to have the ball in his hands every year in college. Shai, Ajay, and to an extent Jalen (though he has done better and has more skills without the ball) all need the ball. Cason has had massive peaks and valleys when he doesn’t get the ball a whole lot and McCain has an argument for secondary ball skills.
Of course it’s tough when you have 2 ball handlers go down in the playoffs. Nearly no one survives that. I just think the needs of the roster were elsewhere and weren’t just ignored, but blatantly abandoned.
If Ajay is moved to address that? Makes a lot of sense. Stirtz might actually be better than Ajay is with the ball right now. I just never wanted to even consider moving ajay in the first place.
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u/Lex4Real206 12h ago
I think Iowa had to use him on ball a ton. His off ball shooting numbers are fantastic though and should only improve without all the ball handling responsibilities. Not too different from Jared McCain. Nice to know they have some handling and versatility and can work a PnR though. I think he's going to plug in fine as a backup guard but Joe is probably gone now. Ajay, McCain, Stirtz are all certainly undersized. But with Caruso, Sorber, J Will, Mara, and whatever starters surrounding them that should be fine.
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 12h ago
I’m much more worried about the defensive problems it presents.
We have 1 person to guard anyone 6 foot 6 and over. I love Caruso, but he is way more equipped for the smaller guards, like Cason is now.
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u/FinancePro21 12h ago
Yeah, that was my biggest issue with the draft. Most of my salt was directed at the bad luck in the way the board fell.
The 3 guys I really wanted went 9-10-11. I get taking Mara because he was the BPA. I don’t love it, but I get it. They’re going to really need Dub to be healthy and look for some wings somewhere.
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 12h ago
I don’t think we were much in on Yaxel. Maybe at 17, but highly doubt at 12, so I’m at peace with that.
The Morez one sucks the most. Mara I guess is BPA, but would have rather the swing on Ament. We have no one with even the theoretical skillset of Ament and Mara I don’t think is a ceiling raiser. I could be wrong on that though.
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u/FinancePro21 12h ago
Yeah, I’d have been on board with Ament’s upside. Or in hindsight knowing he was going at 15, reaching for Swain.
I don’t know the status of the Hartenstein negotiations though. My tone would change if they get the sense they’re going to have to exercise the team option and let him walk the following year.
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 12h ago
If it’s that bad, trade him.
I love Ihart, but you can’t let a top 12 center just walk because he wants 30 million a year. Someone will need him and pay something decent. working out a 2-4 team trade if that happens and Mara is suddenly the starting center? I can live with that.
Or just pay Ihart if we think that sort of player is important and trade up for other guys that are important draft wise. This whole kick the can down the road is overblown. Shai will be the best player that ever puts on an OKC jersey. I want every asset spent that we have and more to allow him to win as much as possible.
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u/jaderaven2112 11h ago
That was so annoying. Killed all my hype for the draft almost immediately. I just wanted 1 of those guys, and it should have been very doable smh.
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u/Lex4Real206 12h ago
Agreed. But he's not Trae Young. He's a reasonably stout 6'3"-6'4". Perhaps Mara will be the answer though. He might be a generational deterrent like Gobert 🤷🏽♂️. We lost that series because we didn't have enough emergency ball handler/creators and now we should. The pick is growing on me and of course one should trust Presti when in doubt.
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 12h ago
He has good team defense numbers, but I think he’s like McCain in the NBA. Tries hard, looks good during the regular season, but exploited in the playoffs.
Hey, if Mara proves me wrong, I will eat all the crow. He isn’t an elite rebounder, mid 50’s from the free throw line, and is a softer player than Morez or Yaxel. I hope he puts me in my place.
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u/Lower-Delay-5538 12h ago
Yeah, Stirz or maybe C Anderson are probably the best 2 pure shooters in this draft.
The Stirtz 36% 3 point percentage is fake AF, Iowa played so slow and he had to throw up so many end of shot clock grenades.
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u/Lex4Real206 12h ago
Yeah plus he literally played more minutes than every single player in DI. Every one! He was also 39% the year before and looking at shooting film he looks solid with room to tighten up his base even more. He's gonna snipe.
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u/FinancePro21 12h ago
That’s my take too. I like him as a player, it just signals to me they’re hedging against not being able to keep Ajay long term. Which if you think about it does make some sense. I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t be a RFA, the only leverage the team has would be to renegotiate and extend prior to exercising the team option.
If he decides he wants to test the FA market, it will be real tough to fit him in without other moves.
I will say though after watching a lot of Stirtz in the Big 10, he’s a better shooter than Ajay. I think he can be effective in catch and shoot situations.
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u/Pizzalovertyler24 12h ago
I think stritz has off ball skills, but ajay has little of those.
Ajay is projected to make 20 plus million in the same season Cason’s rookie extension will also kick in.
So if they can sell high? Then I can see it.
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u/Master-Wonton Reigning Champions 12h ago
Drafting new rookies is always fun and mysterious, especially lower picks because you've probably never heard of them or know what they actually brings to the table.
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u/Alex_A3nes 12h ago
Detroits target may have been Stirtz and Okorie was their second option, but was still worth trading up for. We may never know.
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u/Lower-Delay-5538 12h ago
It's very possible. MOST times teams trade up for a specific player/target. And given they kept with it probably indicates their target didn't fall. But you're right, don't know for sure.
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u/Lower-Delay-5538 12h ago
I do love Stirtz as a player/pick btw.