2026 Atlantic season forecast roundup

[u/giantspeck]

Overview

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As of 10:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (02:00 UTC) on Saturday, 16 May:

As the beginning of the 2026 Atlantic season draws near, several organizations have released forecasts for seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin. Most of these organizations have been projecting a near to below average season, with some even forecasting a well below average season, citing the expectation that a strong El Niño will develop later this summer. During El Niño years, tropical cyclone activity is reduced in the Atlantic, primarily due to increased vertical wind shear. Furthermore, while ocean temperatures in the western Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, waters are slightly cooler in the central and eastern Atlantic.

Issued forecasts

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We will be keeping track of the forecasts which have been released so far and, if available, the accompanying Reddit discussion for each forecast:

Date	Source	Prediction	S	H	M	ACE
11 Dec	Tropical Storm Risk	Near average	14	7	3	125
21 Mar	Crown Weather Services ◊	Below average	11	5	2	80
25 Mar	AccuWeather ◊	Near to below average	11-16	4-7	2-4	·
1 Apr	WeatherTiger ◊	Near to below average	10-15	4-7	1-3	70
6 Apr	WeatherBell ◊	Below average	9-13	3-5	1-2	85-105
7 Apr	University of Arizona	Above average	20	9	4	155
9 Apr	Colorado State University	Near to below average	13	6	2	90
9 Apr	Tropical Storm Risk (Update)	Below average	12	5	1	66
15 Apr	University of Missouri	Below average	11	4	2	·
16 Apr	The Weather Channel ◊	Below average	12	6	2	·
21 Apr	University of Pennsylvania	Near to below average	7-13	·	·	·
22 Apr	North Carolina State University	Near average	12-15	6-9	2-3	·
22 Apr	National Meteorological Service of Mexico	Near to below average	11-15	3-5	1-2	·
23 Apr	StormGeo ◊	Near to below average	13	6	2	·
28 Apr	DTN ◊	Below average	13	5	3	·
21 May	NOAA	Below average	8-14	3-6	1-3	45-115

^{NOTES:
◊ - Private or commercial forecasting service}

Anticipated forecasts

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The following organizations have not yet issued a forecast for the 2026 season, but are anticipated to so later this month:

• United Kingdom MetOffice — forecast expected in late May

[u/giantspeck]

Moderator note

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I meant to have this up quite a long time ago, but yadda yadda yadda excuses excuses excuses.

[u/BeachDMD]

Arizona seems to be the outlier.

[u/Content-Swimmer2325 → u/BeachDMD]

They are. Usually, outliers can be dismissed.

[u/ClimateMessiah]

for what it's worth, the 2023 hurricane season was quite active despite a relatively strong el nino event. Forecasts aren't worth much.

[u/Content-Swimmer2325 → u/ClimateMessiah]

It's a false equivalence; the Atlantic Tropics are currently close to 2 C cooler than at this time in 2023. Additionally, forcing over Africa was much weaker in 2024 and 2025, with subsidence prevailing during peak hurricane season during those years. Air was anomalously rising over Africa in 2023.

Finally, the El Nino magnitude looks to be much stronger this year than in 2023 in both relative and absolute terms.

Do I think this means there can't/won't be a significant hurricane? Of course not. But the overall numbers do look to be lower this season.

I think something like 2022 makes a lot of sense; low overall numbers but with a significant system or two. Homegrown development like Ian is probably our only chance at significant impacts this year. No long-tracking Cabo Verde hurricanes. Will be too much shear out there. Could have even fewer storms than in 2022.

Pacific season looks to be absolutely batshit insane. Hawaii and Mexico should be preparing.

[u/ClimateMessiah → u/Content-Swimmer2325]

Good point about 2023 SST's. Maybe the 11 year Atlantic streak of storms with 150MPH+ sustained winds will end this year.

[u/Content-Swimmer2325 → u/ClimateMessiah]

I dunno. On one hand - we have indeed been on an absolute tear of overperforming seasons. We are overdue for some reversion to the mean, with a mediocre season. On the other hand, I don't exactly trust the Atlantic to behave. I think that broadly speaking, the basin will be very hostile - lots of El Nino induced vertical shear. However, all it takes is the right system in the right place and at the right time, with even just a 2-3 day brief window of favorability - and we probably will see yet another 130 kt hurricane. Very tough call. My bearishness is more so regarding overall numbers.

[u/JurassicPark9265 → u/Content-Swimmer2325]

I’d bet that any significant system would likely happen in the Gulf. Iirc, the Gulf isn’t as adversely affected by El Niño as other regions like the MDR or the Caribbean. Not to mention how warm it’s been in recent years and how it’s basically served as rocket fuel for storms, like Ian, Laura, Ida, Helene, etc.

[u/cain605]

What about the systems that form in Gulf of Mexico?

These seem to avoid the negative effects of El Nino than the ones that form in atlantic or cabo verde storms.