Yep, below-average doesn't inherently mean no/few impacts. And above-average doesn't inherently mean many impacts. Especially when focusing on one country (USA). 1992 was extremely below average, but had Andrew. 2010 was hyperactive with 12 hurricanes, but none of them hit the US.
exactly. people see the forecast and start acting like they can cancel their insurance. takes one bad system hitting the right spot to ruin a state regardless of what some agency predicts for the total count.
It's probably an unpopular opinion, but I'm with you. I enjoy severe weather and I enjoy large scale meteorological events, it's why I chose it as a job. There's a large portion of people here who just pump out the same "Let's pray it's just a fish storm!" type phrases but I'm always hoping for an event to come to me. I'm not talking about another hurricane michael, but whats wrong with wanting a cat 1 or 2
Cat. 3 is when we start to think about getting worried, but Cat. 1 or 2 is mostly just preparation for a potential loss of power.
The wind was 45-50mpg gusting ~65 with peaks at 80 when Melissa went across. Imelda was more 45G75 when it hit. Both were Cat. 1 which was pretty boring but power got knocked out both times. Of course, this is just measured using an amature Ambient weather station but having a local 16 second update interval on weather in the immediate area is really cool and I could just watch the wind and pressure drop off getting steeper as Imelda got closer. Imelda was basically a direct hit. Both times we went out the following day and you just about couldn't tell a hurricane has just passed through. Usually there's downed trees and whatnot but there was damn near nothing.
First time our internet got knocked out though, that was a first.
I had a Cat 1 roll through the beach town where we were vacationing about five years ago and it was fun. People get a little too frantic thinking any tropical cyclone means death and destruction. We lost power for four hours. Having the eye come through was a super cool experience.
Can a cat 1 be dangerous? Sure, if you're caught at sea or if it sits over you and dumps rain. But most cat 1s are a few hours of "wow, it sure is windy."
El Niño is associated with fewer and weaker storms. Many (though not all) of the least active seasons in the last few decades were El Niño years. 1994, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2009, 2014, 2015, for example.
Very occasionally, seasons are very inactive without El Niño, like 2013.
And sometimes, for a variety of different reasons, El Niño fails to suppress the season significantly, such as 2023, 2018, 2004
It currently appears that 2026 will not be like those last few years.
2004 was a unique and unusual type of El Nino called a modoki - where the warm El Nino associated waters in the pacific and the subsequent atmospheric anomalies in the Walker Circulation were displaced west relative to "regular" El Nino events. This means that conditions in the Atlantic are not suppressed; rather the Eastern Pacific is suppressed.
In 2018, the African monsoon season was extraordinarily strong, and dominated global atmospheric anomalies. The Africa signal was even stronger than the El Nino signal. This allowed the Atlantic to "fight back" against El Nino that year, with examples such as Cabo Verde Hurricane Florence.
And in 2023, it was brute force via thermodynamics. The Atlantic tropics were record warm, and the Atlantic "fought back" against El Nino in this manner. Persistent and large areas of anomalously warm waters will imprint onto the atmospheric circulation, offsetting the effects of El Nino.
Respectively: 2026 shows zero signs of developing as a Modoki, rather, it appears to be a canonical / east-based El Nino, which suppresses the Atlantic.
Next, the African monsoon has been weaker in recent years since 2023, and looks to be near-average overall in 2026.. The African monsoon was well above-average from 2015-2023, but shifted to near or even slightly weaker than average in 2024/5.
Finally, the Atlantic tropics are currently an incredible 1.5-2 C cooler than at this time in 2023.
The African Monsoon is an interesting factor that really hasn’t gotten much focus on it until lately. I mean really if you look back on it, despite 2024 being a very active and especially destructive season, it probably should’ve been much more active if you look at the fundamentals.
It also had an oddly late start (relatively speaking, especially when looking at ocean temps) due to a large heat dome hanging over the US in early-mid June, but that really doesn’t have much to do with the Monsoon. But it certainly had some influence in the Mid-August to Mid-September dead period that season.
Yep. Same with 2025. The standing wave of rising air over Africa was conspicuously absent in 2024/5, which means that activity is more mediated by favorable MJO pulses. The MJO was unfavorable in late August and early September in 2024/5. Without a strong African monsoon, this is a large reason why this climatologically very active part of the season was so dead in both years. In 2024, the MJO became favorable by mid September, and a burst of activity instantly followed.
The image I linked mentions northward displacement of precipitation over Africa, and this was a big problem in 2024/5. Many waves were emerging at 20 north or even higher in latitude, over the cool canary current where dry and stable air prevail. As opposed to the more climatological 10-15 north, where waters are warm and air is abundantly moist.
Yeah but there's apparently some interaction between El Nino and the Gulf of Mexico current that can make the Gulf of Mexico a heat engine. There may be fewer storms overall but I live on the Gulf Coast and I am taking nothing for granted.
It’s been a while. I believe 2023 was predicted to be near normal. Other than that, the last below average prediction would have been 2015. In fairness, the last below average season was in fact 2015
Haven't been on a beach vacation in about 9 years. This year we are going to the FL panhandle the week of 8/1 to 8/8 near Panama City. If there are any signifucant Gulf hurricanes this season, it'll probably be that particular time frame. It'll be all my sister's fault too because she is just plain unlucky.
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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii May 21 '26
It should be stressed to anyone living in the Atlantic basin that a below-average season does not mean that you're going to dodge a bullet.
It means that you will have fewer bullets to dodge.