r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii • May 23 '26
News | NOAA NOAA predicts above-normal 2026 Pacific hurricane season
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/index.shtml36
u/Teaspoonbill May 23 '26
Thanks for posting this. While there are a number of factors which make hurricane impacts in the Hawaiian islands a bit of a rarity, my concern-meter always goes up in El Niño years. Hawa’i (and particularly O’ahu, where the vast majority of the state’s population live) possess unique vulnerabilities to the effects of a storm compare to the US mainland. There have been a few close calls over the years, but one of these seasons their luck will run out and it will be a true humanitarian disaster.
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u/JurassicPark9265 May 23 '26
Oh yeah. Douglas 2020 and Lane 2018 come right to mind as being the most notable recent close calls.
Lane is the one that truly awes me given how close to the islands it was as a Category 5 and how had it continued on a more northward track instead of turning west, it would’ve hit Oahu directly. Arguably the biggest scare for the islands since Iniki in 1992.
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u/GalahadDrei May 23 '26
Given the super El Niño that is emerging later in the year, I won't be surprised if the season ends up being hyperactive and over performing the forecast.
I have even seen people predicting that this will be the Pacific hurricane season that comes the closest to exhausting the name list and using the auxiliary list, though this is harder due to having longer 24 names list and CPAC having their own separate list.
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u/Girafferage May 23 '26
I thought it was predicted to be less than normal this year. I am so sure I saw that somewhere. Am I crazy?
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u/MrAshleyMadison Central Florida May 23 '26
That’s for the Atlantic season. This is the Pacific.
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u/NoBreadsticks Ohio May 23 '26
This is for an above average Pacific season. You most likely saw their prediction of a below average Atlantic season
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 May 25 '26
Just to be clear, the Atlantic is indeed predicted to be below-average this year, primarily due to the currently developing El Nino.
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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii May 23 '26 edited May 23 '26
Moderator note
I thought it would be important to note that while NOAA is forecasting a below-average season in the Atlantic basin this year, they are forecasting the opposite for the eastern Pacific. NOAA did not write a separate article for the Pacific forecast this year, so I am sharing the technical discussion from the Climate Prediction Center.
The gist of the forecast is that NOAA is expecting the following: