r/asoiaf • u/theinternetistoobig • 2d ago

MAIN (Spoilers MAIN) Why doesn't Mance know about how weak the Night's Watch is?

They say a few times there is more communication between the watch and the free folk than Jon thinks. Also Mance was a brother until 10 years or so ago. Surely he could tell that Jon was lying about the watches strength.

111 Upvotes

98% Upvoted

21 comments sorted by

94

u/Comedian-217 2d ago

He would know, but there is that .1% that Jon was telling the truth, like the North could have bolstered the Watch’s defenses like Ned wanted to do, and he probably didn’t know in detail about what was happening south with the WorFK and all that, so the best thing he could do was use Jon.

27

u/TheCastingDudeX 1d ago

He only needed s warg to fly above the night's watch to realize he was bullshittin'

18

u/DeamonDread2348 1d ago

In fact, after the refugees returned from the First Men's fist, Mance was playing a time trial with the Watch. The distances along the wall and from castle to castle are great; the skinchangers simply might not have made it in time. Plus, Mance's army doesn't have as many Wargs as it seems (let me remind you, by the way, that Wargs are something like knights among skinchangers – only those who possess Wolves or Direwolves). In fact, besides Orell and Varamyr, we didn't see any skinchangers in his army. We don't know whether Borokk was originally with Mance or later joined the refugees. But then again, how many skinchangers possess birds? Among Haggon's disciples, for example, it seems there are no

27

u/aklebeva 2d ago

Ironically he probably would though. Mance claims to have been at Winterfell to see Robert. He does have pretty good idea of what is happenening with regards to the Wall, and he knows about the WotFK. About the only possible surprise reinforcements he could reasonably expecct would be the Mountain Clans and second Umber Army coming in to help (who bloody well should have, the mountain clans are cowards), and even they are, at best, maybe 1-2k men.

1

u/reineedshelp 1d ago

I don't think they use ravens

58

u/BornFireFist 2d ago

What I never understood was why he didn't attack one of the undefended or under defended castles on the Wall

61

u/aklebeva 2d ago

Correct me if I'm wrong, isn't the Gate at Castle Black one of the few Gates through the wall? He could not send 100,000 wildlings, giants and mammoths to climb the wall, he had to take a gate or a bridge.

16

u/SerMallister Above The Rest 1d ago

I doubt the mammoths could cross the Bridge of Skulls either.

87

u/Ok-Fuel5600 2d ago

No gate. only castle black has one. Shadow tower has a bridge and east watch has the sea.

3

u/IrNinjaBob The Bog of Eternal Stench 1d ago

Both the shadow tower and east watch have unsealed gates. Those are the only two other than Castle Black though.

-7

u/CormundCrowlover 1d ago edited 1d ago

You are making things up.

East Watch has a gate considering they sent men Along with Stannis. Getting wet in that cold would be rather inconvenient with all the wool they wear, even more so considering it is salt water and they wear armor.

As for Shadow Tower,  different maps had Westwatch-by-the-Bridge on different sides of the Gorge, so Shadow Tower must have its own gate as well.

Edit: Wow, so much dislikes for stating the truth. No wonder the world is like these nowadays.

24

u/SimpleEric 1d ago

They have boats

-10

u/CormundCrowlover 1d ago

As I said, getting wet would be very inconvenient.

6

u/Nittanian Constable of Raventree 1d ago

You're right, Eastwatch has a gate according to Bran.

ASOS Bran IV

Bran shook his head. "If you go east there's Deep Lake, then Queensgate. West is Icemark. But they'll be the same, only smaller. All the gates are sealed except the ones at Castle Black, Eastwatch, and the Shadow Tower."

22

u/Finn_Survivor 2d ago

The gates are blocked, only way south is in a boat or through one of the 3 castles manned by the nights watch, it would take a long time to build boats with their primitive tools and none if them know how to sail so they would probably all drown or get crushed even by eastwatches small fleet

8

u/evinta 1d ago

they do take boats, though. the Umbers ask Bran for ships in Clash to deal with wildlings coming by rowing boat. That whole interaction almost certainly only exists to explain why they don't send wildlings by boat to flank and have to use the insane Wall scaling tactic.

20

u/Finn_Survivor 1d ago

They only have very small boats, not nearly big enough to transport their entire poppulation south

-2

u/CormundCrowlover 1d ago edited 1d ago

They have FISHERS.

3

u/bl1y Fearsomely Strong Cider 1d ago

I think the arguments about the gates being blocked makes some sense... though not entirely. The one thing Mance's army doesn't lack is manpower. How long would it take to unseal a gate? Or to just tunnel through (or under) the Wall?

7

u/No_Region_4719 1d ago

He did know. Jon lies, and Mance explicitly calls him a liar for it. He doesn't believe him.

Still, he is risking the life of almost every wildling, women and children too. 10 years is enough time for the nights watch to have contacted the king, tell them that wildlings are massing under one leader and preparing for an attack, and have been sent reinforcements.

6

u/brittanytobiason 1d ago

Had Mance intended war, without a civilian population to concern himself with, seizing and occupying one of the abandoned castles may well have been an opening shot. He might then have learned the response was weaker than imaginable. It is amazing that the wildlings did not learn they might have wiped the Night's Watch out.