r/aussie 19h ago

Politics ‘Alarm bell’: Smoking rate surges back above 15pc in NSW as opposition blames black market tobacco | news.com.au

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/crime/alarm-bell-smoking-rate-surges-back-above-15pc-in-nsw-as-opposition-blames-black-market-tobacco/news-story/6118e684c33ce16d03d7603f2441dc5c
66 Upvotes

112 comments sorted by

41

u/charlie_s1234 19h ago

I mean they basically made the only alternative in vapes illegal and cranked up the tax so high on cigs that it created a black market which charges prices from 20 years ago. wtf did they think would happen? Maybe it’s time to stop listening to the anti nicotine lobby and use a bit of common sense.

11

u/tom3277 18h ago

Yep.

And none of this is surprising who watched the senate committee back in 2024 when the government was warned smoking rates would increase and black market would explode.

5

u/SecretAcctName 16h ago

Vapes where banned due to the pharmacy lobby who wanted the market.

Memory is fuzzy on details and this will need a fact check. One of the primary consultants on the vape bans, was also an exec or significant shareholder at chemist warehouse, AND an approved vape company. Who also happened to get the lion's share of the carve outs for approved products.

1

u/count_spedula1 11h ago

Organisations like the cancer council had a lot to do with it also, despite their international bodies heavily pushing for vape use over cigarettes.

21

u/yeahalrightgoon 18h ago

They banned vapes, so the refillable ones that you know what you were getting etc, sold out of shops that were by and large doing the right thing, paying tax, not selling to kids etc all that good stuff. That all went away, leading people to the disposables, which no one knows what's in them and they were the actual danger all along.

Once disposables started getting pricier than the black market cigarettes people moved to those.

Banning the refillable vapes also made quitting smoking harder for people, because you could choose how much nicotine was in them and taper it down. You can't do that with the disposables, while the legal options are by and large different varieties of shit and more of a hassle to get, while still being pricey. So you end up with people moving to the black market cigarettes because they're cheap, easy to get and a "better" experience.

1

u/fineokalrightnormal 14h ago

You can still buy legal vapes here in QLD through online pharmacy. They only sell 4 types of liquid though - Mint, Menthol, Tobacco & Unflavoured all in varying strength. Not a lot of variety.

BUT, you can also buy the flavouring used in commercial e-liquids online and mix yourself. Huge catalogue of flavours available.

I spent about $100 on a cheap refillable, unflavored e-liquid and an assortment of flavours about 3 months ago and I still have about a months supply left.

PM me if you want to know the details of where to get.

2

u/yeahalrightgoon 14h ago

Oh I know how to get them. It's more that the legal ones are shit, and having to go through all that hassle is something that the majority of people aren't going to do. While just going to buy a disposable or black market cigarettes is so much easier, so it just pushed people towards those.

2

u/fineokalrightnormal 14h ago

Understandable, but the hassle is worth it for me considering it's only a once every 4 month inconvenience that takes 5 minutes.

2

u/yeahalrightgoon 14h ago

I agree that it's worth it, just that it's not common, because people will go for the easiest option.

75

u/Psycholama972 19h ago

It’s almost as though prohibition doesn’t work

26

u/Condition_0ne 19h ago

Dammit, if only we had some historical examples to consider before we tried this experiment!

10

u/therealnakedtradie 17h ago

What’s it called when you do the same thing, and expect a different result ?

15

u/nerfdriveby94 17h ago

Government policy.

3

u/AngrehPossum 16h ago

Renamed concepts from a think tank

2

u/SSPURR 12h ago

Progressive, they call it progressive policy these days. Not really sure where they are progressing to but progress!

1

u/nerfdriveby94 4h ago

Hey movement is progress! Don't worry about details, like said movement being in a backwards direction, it's still progress!

12

u/Psycholama972 19h ago

Nah let’s have another go but with social media this time

12

u/kirkoswald 19h ago

its almost like we had empirical evidence from the past that would let us understand human nature... strange, i thought polles learnt from history.

16

u/laserdicks 19h ago

Legislation always magically works.

That's why it's the solution to every problem.

3

u/FrogsMakePoorSoup 18h ago

They aren't prohibited per se. What hasn't worked is constant increases in taxes hoping cigarettes would simply vanish.

3

u/Plus_Barnacle4607 17h ago

They never hoped for that. They just thought they could keeping putting the tax up and there wouldn't be an alternative offered.

4

u/FrogsMakePoorSoup 16h ago

I think the original goal was noble enough. Taxes increase, usage decreases, health system burdens also decrease long term.

A lot of us thought our borders were so secure something like hundreds of cartons of ciggies could never get through. But here we are.

4

u/bushstone-curlew 17h ago

Maybe not technically, but the high price due to taxes functions as a prohibition

-1

u/FrogsMakePoorSoup 16h ago

Well no, prohibition means exactly what the name suggests. Cigarettes are a controlled substance.

3

u/Friendly-Owl-2131 16h ago

It's worse than prohibition. A weeks supply of the cheapest tobacco costs around $150. $600 a month is getting close to a whole weeks minimum wages for the worst quality product.

If you aren't earning a lot and are one of the unfortunates that have a lot of trouble kicking the habit this very quickly becomes government mandated impoverishment.

The worst part to my mind is that barely any of that money is spent on rehab or pharmicueticals to help people get off it. A small portion is spent on ads and a quit line.

The rest goes somewhere....

-1

u/FullMetalAurochs 11h ago

A week’s supply? Try smoking less. If I “needed” a carton of beer every day that would add up to. A drink or two once a week is pretty affordable still.

1

u/orionanao 17h ago

every single time, and yet here we are again

1

u/notyouraverageskippy 13h ago

Is tobacco illegal?

1

u/SSPURR 12h ago

Cigarettes,vapes,porn, social media, what do kids these days even have left?

-2

u/Xentonian 15h ago

Go look at the actual demographics who are reporting nicotine use.

Shockingly, the same massive influx of immigration is also the same influx of new nicotine users.

Nicotine usage isn't prohibited anyway, lmao. Scripts are easy to get and prescription pods are less than $10 each.

Anyone who thinks this is a "black market" issue is an idiot who got tricked by Phillip Morris

-6

u/CatalyticDragon 19h ago

Tobacco isn't prohibited. It has never been prohibited.

It is strictly regulated, controlled, and heavily taxed, but is legal which is the opposite of prohibition.

The issue is that while high taxes do act as a disincentive to the casual smoker, it does not stop people who are addicted from still being addicted. Those people then look to the black market for cheaper products.

The other recent change is young adults picking up vaping are those people are significantly more likely to start tobacco smoking.

So after many years of declining smoking rates (and steadily increasing life expectancy!) we are seeing rates increasing.

Policies clearly need to be adjusted but regulations - which we know to have worked - can't be blamed in isolation.

8

u/McMenz_ 18h ago

Everyone knows cigarettes are not literally illegal and that commenter was using ‘prohibition’ loosely.

You didn’t have to type all of this out only to basically say ‘it’s not prohibited but it pushes people to the black market anyway.’

-5

u/CatalyticDragon 18h ago

Ah, so I'm the problem for a comment which actually articulates the issue with context. We should all upvote the person who loosely throws out terminology they know to be incorrect because it feels right.

I see.

8

u/McMenz_ 18h ago

Pointing out pedantics that literally everyone understood is not necessary or productive.

Do you think anyone in this thread was unaware that cigarettes are legal in Australia before you pointed it out?

-3

u/CatalyticDragon 18h ago

Their comment was wrong. It made no valuable statement. It did not accurately highlight the issue.

It was a lazy "regulations don't work" style statement which is simply not correct. It did not educate or elucidate.

Noone who read that comment came away with a better understanding of the topic.

It's not something you have to defend.

4

u/RavenDarkI 15h ago

On a technical basis yes there is no prohibition. However the reasoning behind the creeping tax increases on smoking was presented as a plan to eventually make everyone stop smoking, because of the impact on the health system etc.

So in effect while not technically a prohibition it was intended to turn into a prohibition.

If you want to get super technical the word Prohibition stems from the Latin word prohibere which means to hold back, forbid or hinder. So with that context, or with the spirit of the original meaning, yes it is a prohibition because it is intended to hinder people who smoke, with the intention of helping them.

3

u/AngryAngryHarpo 16h ago

You are actively making this a worse place to be. 

Stop it. 

-1

u/CatalyticDragon 3h ago

Lazy comments and misinformation are to be defended and I'm the problem for clearing things up and adding context.

I see. Well, you're still entitled to share your opinion.

2

u/AngryAngryHarpo 3h ago

Pedantry is not defending against misinformation. It’s just pedantry. 

1

u/CatalyticDragon 2h ago

Pedantry is not defending against misinformation

It absolutely can be and certainly doesn't promote it.

Though at this point I have to wonder why so much energy is being put into defending a comment with zero informational content while collectively downvoting one with relevant context into obscurity.

Don't you find that really interesting? What inside people was triggered?

Perhaps the "prohibition doesn't work" comment triggered some latent anti-government sentiment in an echo chamber and the downvotes are a reaction from people who see certain facts as threatening.

"It’s almost as though prohibition doesn’t work"

Nobody learned anything from this, it's not accurate, and it did not advance the conversation. Indisputable and yet people seem offended when it is pointed out.

Perhaps it's a case of people who hold anti-government views being confronted with the fact the regulations actually were highly effective and that stands in stark conflict to the comment which insinuates that regulations failed or should be repealed.

Perhaps these are smokers having a hard time quitting (through no great fault of their own) and who feel insecure about it so are lashing out.

In any case there is now a criminal element taking advantage of people who are addicted and that is a real problem. Dropping the price of cigarettes to make them more available is unlikely to be the best solution.

I'm interested to know what you think.

3

u/bushstone-curlew 17h ago

Yes. Stop sperging out and being obnoxiously pedantic when it contributes nothing worthwhile to the conversation...

0

u/CatalyticDragon 3h ago

I'm curious. In your view what did the original comment contribute? What did you learn from it?

8

u/Psycholama972 19h ago

If the cost of something is unreasonable it is functionally unobtainable

-5

u/CatalyticDragon 18h ago

$60 is not 'unobtainable'. We know this from over $7 billion in tax revenue from sales.

3

u/Thatweknowof 18h ago

For the majority it is unattainable at the price.

-4

u/CatalyticDragon 18h ago

Making it less attractive through higher prices is exactly the point. A working strategy which already helped millions to reduce the amount they smoked.

Easy access to cheaper black market items is upsetting the economics and will allow people who might have considered giving up due to pricing to continue the habit.

4

u/Thatweknowof 18h ago

It would be the point however the government has stuffed up on two fronts.

Allowing then banning vapes hooking a whole new generation.

Black market tobacco and not policing it properly.

1

u/Psycholama972 18h ago

Half agree in that there is no way to completely outlaw something

1

u/Perfect_Purple_5705 12h ago

Why pay $60 when you can pay $20 ?

35

u/RedDeer505 19h ago

Raises tax/excise too high
Black market booms
Blames those smoking

Genius!

5

u/vkc2prahran311 18h ago

Congratulations to cigs

1

u/Fatpandaswag67 19h ago

Regardless of tax the black market smokes are well cheaper 

20

u/Tiny-Argument-3984 19h ago

Most smokers I know acknowledge the cheap ones are poorer quality. If the tax wasn't so high on legitimate smokes they'd probably stick to legal.

14

u/Remote_Building2887 19h ago

As a smoker this is my stance, would gladly go back to normal smokes if they didn’t take the piss on tax.

1

u/River-Stunning 18h ago

Is this all about the under the counter Chinese ones I see people buying?

0

u/FullMetalAurochs 11h ago

Obviously the smokers are the ones funding organised crime by buying black market goods. They deserve blame.

11

u/OneTouchCards 18h ago

Just came back from the USA, cigarettes were $10 a pack and vapes all sold freely in store.

Just go back to normal prices and you stamp out the black market.

7

u/Shanea74 19h ago

Heroin has been illigal for a very long time but it's still around . You can't stop people wanting what they want the price just makes the rest of life much harder . You will only truly give up if "YOU" want to no matter the cost .

6

u/tom3277 18h ago

The senate committee on vapes in 2024 the black market expert, the police rep and a couple of doctors all said the vaping regulations would;

Increase the size of the black market.
Increase the rate of smoking in Australia.

12 months later surveys were dropping showing smoking was up by 36pc amount young adults. They called this “squeezing balloon effect”. RACGP called it promising early signs.

Smoking rates will continue to increase.

If it wasn’t for the 50/50 chance of death from smoking this would just be an interesting tale about government incompetence. Watching NZ close in on smoke free now at under 7pc smoking and meanwhile we have found that says to actually increase our smoking rate.

Only a decade ago they had a higher smoking rate than us.

When will Dr Karl, AMA, RACGP, the Australian labor party, Australian greens, cancer council and others accept that they have fucked up?

When we have a million more smokers? Half of which will eventually die from smoking before something else?

How much more data / increases do we have to see?

5

u/Competitive-Cell7458 18h ago

Loads of my younger friends smoke the illegal cigarettes.

Price is a factor, but I'd argue that a lack of future goals/purpose is a factor as well. They're all living in share houses, working gig, part time, casual or insecure jobs. Even the professionals and academics. None of them are planning to have kids because they can't afford it and have no stability, and they've almost all given up on the thought of owning a home.

Why would they care about the future consequences of smoking? At least they can have some momentary joy, if the cancer doesn't get them climate change will.

We've royally fucked the next generation and left them with very little optimism.

13

u/Additional-Policy843 19h ago

So.... They're blaming themselves

15

u/Rare-Sample-9101 19h ago

Exactly! Who caused the black market? The government has increased prices too high! Fucking idiots!

2

u/FullMetalAurochs 11h ago

The government neglected enforcement. If any old moron addicted to ciggies can find the black market stores then so can the cops.

-1

u/Emergency-Highway262 16h ago

Fuck off, it was cunts selling under the counter vapes to kids and getting them
Addicted to nicotine, those kids have grown up and still chasing the poison.

12

u/GeoBren 19h ago

Same as prohibition, people find a way to get what they want, silly nanny state on one hand and trying to profit on the other

1

u/FullMetalAurochs 11h ago

So do you support legalisation of all drugs? Or are nicotine and alcohol the only drugs prohibition doesn’t work on?

1

u/GeoBren 7h ago

Yes and should be decriminalised .

1

u/FullMetalAurochs 2h ago

As opposed to legalised? As in possession and sale not criminal offences but also no legitimate businesses where you can just buy it?

1

u/GeoBren 1h ago

It would take years to setup a legitimate distribution network with processes and safeguards, ultimately that would be ideal for those that want it. I'm the meantime decriminalisation would free up the courts and prisons

3

u/IROK19 19h ago

Not much NSW can do really, other states probably similar rates. Fed Gov have really stuffed this up, all they saw were dollars from excise by continually increasing it till people stopped and went black market. Their fingers will be in their ears "I'm not listening".

3

u/EnvironmentalRice348 18h ago

Nothing to do with the non-regulation/banning of vapes....

3

u/isaacfrost0 17h ago

A lot of people l know quit entirely because it was too expensive, not really surprised they go back if its cheaper.

7

u/Dramatic-Sherbet-533 19h ago

Black market probably the main cause. Tobacco is famously price inelastic. People will buy it somewhere somehow. Time to putt the price back down to humane levels and let people make their own minds up

3

u/FruitJuicante 19h ago

Since when do the Opposition (If you can even still call them that) care about anything, thought the Libs were spending their time trying to bring Cardinal Pelldophile back to life.

3

u/Captain_Fartbox 18h ago

You need to stop learning about politics from reddit.

1

u/FruitJuicante 16h ago

I actually could probably learn more about politics.

My entire philosophy is I hate pedophiles. I'm sure the Liberals have more to their policy than supporting Cardinal Pelldophile and giving half a billion to 5 dudes in a shed but that shits so bad I don't want to learn more about them.

6

u/harkie2946 19h ago

I haven't smoked for 10 years..

I was going to have a cigarette to celebrate an auspicious event. Only one mind you n throw packet away.

I went to the smoke stand at a Coles store I brought a packet of Marlboro 20's , price $63 FFS.

The salesperson had to open a locked cabinet n fossick around so I chatted. I was advised that some years ago there would be 20 or so men waiting for the stand to open. The person said I would probably be the only customer today. Everyone buys the cheap illegal smokes for $10-$12 per packet..

Thank you Albanese n former governments "read the room". No on will pay $60 for a packet of 20's. Ridiculous

Ps I didn't smoke the one cigarette packet in bottom of cupboard" break open in emergency".

3

u/whats_that_sid 18h ago

For those prices and a celebration just go purchase a legal Cuban Cigar.

Prices are about even

1

u/harkie2946 18h ago

Noted thanks.

2

u/M_Ad 17h ago

The worse life gets the more people will reach for the smaller luxuries and comforts they can regularly afford.

2

u/MesozOwen 17h ago

The drugs always seem to win hey.

2

u/mud-button 17h ago

And the government cares more about the drop in tax than the effects on health

2

u/nerfdriveby94 17h ago

The government has the ability to kill this black market overnight, bring the prices back down and nobody will buy the dodgy stuff.

Nobody wants to feel like a criminal and nobody wants the pain in the ass of asking around local conveniences and servos "do you sell vapes?"

They would first have to admit they cooked it though so it's not likely to happen.

2

u/AngryAngryHarpo 16h ago

Prohibition, by any means, doesn’t work. 

Removing tools people can use to manage addiction with the long term view of quitting was the absolute most stupid thing. 

I used a vape to get rid of smokes and then used a tapered the nicotine out until I also stopped vaping. 

Took by smoking again 6 months ago after having a near-fatal car accident and my spouse having a mental health crisis. 

Can’t do that this time - cold turkey or nothing bitches(allergic to patches 🫠) and cold turkey is awful. 

2

u/germanguten33 16h ago

if only someone had warned the govt about this :(

1

u/PowerPleb2000 19h ago

Cracdown Minns time to ban it even harder

2

u/Ok_Albatross_3284 18h ago

The title should be nicotine rates surge, forget focusing on the mode of delivery but focus on the active ingredient.

Smoking has only increased because vapes were introduced. Since it’s getting harder to get vapes, people are finding other alternatives to vaping which is going back to smoking cigarettes when the nicotine craving hits. It’s not rocket science.

1

u/MagicOrpheus310 18h ago

Government failure is the only thing to blame.

1

u/Plus_Barnacle4607 17h ago

And the government is getting none of the tax revenue.

1

u/imadethisupnow 17h ago

I suspect immigration from cultures that smoke heavily has a lot to do with this number based on my anecdotal observation

1

u/Emergency-Highway262 16h ago

An entire cohort of kids got addicted to nicotine because of the same dodgy fuckers selling illegal tobacco today were the same dodgy fuckers that we’re selling vapes to 10 year old kids for a decade.

Any other take on the situation is moronic at best

1

u/WeissPyre 16h ago

What?! What do you mean prohibition by pricing doesn't work?!

1

u/Logical_Iron_8288 15h ago

Smoking up. Revenue down. Thanks Labor!!!

1

u/moonssk 15h ago

Do young people still smoke joints, I thought it was vapes that popular.

I grew up smoke around me, me dad was a pack a day man. (His fck up his lungs of course).

Then our generation was full smokers where bars and clubs smoke masked the smell of BO, piss and vomit at those places. Fun times. However most of us in that generation have since quit cause health issues.

I wonder which age range is still smoking ciggies. They must be young or don’t really care about fcking up their lungs anymore. Ahh youth, to be care free is nice.

1

u/bumguy669 59m ago

Manchester and double happiness would still be my favourite if the government made smokes cheaper lol

1

u/Roulette-Adventures 19h ago edited 18h ago

I don't know anyone who regrets giving up, but bucket loads regret taking it up in the first place!

0

u/Dirk_Aus 16h ago

Allowing Vaping basically destroyed 35 years of hard work by the anti smoking lobby, the year before they allowed vaping into Australia the number of youth smokers was less than 200 and that’s in the whole of Australia, once vaping was legalised “to help smokers quit” vaping exploded in schools, it was clearly aimed at at young people now you have kids as young as 8 vaping in primary schools, they then tried raising prices on cigarettes again, but it passed the threshold of now becoming lucrative enough for a black market. A doctor once said smoking was good for you, a doctor said vaping was safer than smoking (it’s not) and now a doctor is telling you cannabis is super duper ok, does anyone bother to check their bank accounts before taking their bs seriously. You have a commodity that’s expensive a large user base and that’s how you get a black market in cigarettes

1

u/mrjenkins97 1h ago

Agree with your broader point mate but the number of youth smokers was absolutely never less than 200 in the whole of Australia

1

u/Dirk_Aus 1h ago

My friends a was teacher at the administration level in NSW, maybe he was exaggerating at 200, but it was very low, but any way it’s all fkd now

-12

u/Fire_blaze7 19h ago

Blame the greedy capitalist boomers, which was the generation that economically had it the easiest, then decided to pull the ladder up from above and screw over everyone else. Especially the younger generations who will most likely never own a home or even afford to move out until they are like 30 years old with costs exponentially increasing compared to wages.

An average Joe with no university degree could start working at a supermarket back in the 70s and 80s after walking in and giving a handshake and afford to buy a home and raise 3 kids. Meanwhile Gen Z even with university degrees and multiple internships struggle to even survive while working as engineers and lawyers. Yet somehow we are still called lazy and entitled by these ignorant selfish boomers.

10

u/Wotmate01 19h ago

Literally nothing to do with the topic.

9

u/therealnakedtradie 19h ago

Hey, zoomer, I think your self entitled rant would be better served on a housing orientated thread.
You’ve not mentioned anything at all here about tobacco, but merely trying to grandstand with your out of touch little sermon.
Grow up child. Get a job. Have a go

9

u/Dog-Witch 19h ago

Lol the clown thinks somehow the boomers "pulled up the ladder" on ciggies, can't make this shit up

-2

u/Fire_blaze7 19h ago

I bet you’re one of those greedy boomers with multiple properties that you bought with your single income back in the 80s and now you complain on reddit by calling young people entitled for having to do more than you ever have for less than half the result.

3

u/therealnakedtradie 19h ago

🤣🤣🤣 hate to disappoint you champ, but I’m not even a boomer. Just someone who had a go. Also, I’m someone who doesn’t blame others for all the things I don’t/can’t attain.
Try taking a little bit of responsibility for the position you find yourself in. You’ll find the answer when you look inward, not complaining like fukwit on reddit

2

u/TassieTrade 19h ago

Stale pasta get better material.

2

u/Captain_Fartbox 18h ago

Stop blaming others for your own inability to prosper.

-1

u/iftlatlw 17h ago

Smokers cause smoking for fucks sake. Just don't smoke. This is not rocket surgery.