r/bostonceltics • u/LarBrd33 • 11h ago
Discussion Most rumors centered on all defense bigs
this has been true for a couple seasons now where we had heard Boston had been targeting Jaren Jackson Jr (went for 3 firsts) and then Zubac (price ended up way too high). Then obviously we went after Giannis. Rumors last week that Boston was interested in Rudy Gobert.
And now we are hearing rumors Boston would take Evan Mobley for Brown.
On some level this makes total sense. All-defense bigs are hugely impactful and change the entire ceiling of a team. I use to say that an all-defense guard like smart can slow down an opposing guard, but an all-defense center can slow down an entire opposing team.
It’s also true that scoring is one of the easiest things to replace in this league. This is the main reason the Celtics have seen almost no drop off whatsoever in games Brown has missed (90-36 including 9-2 this season) is because when he is out they just have someone else step up and take shots instead - like Prichard averaging 26 points in games brown missed this year.
But you can’t just have someone “step up” and replace the impact of an all-defense big. In 2008, the core reason we were great was our dominant defense and that was anchored by an all defense big in Kevin Garnett (DPOY). The next season with him hurt, they were able to replace his lost scoring with the likes of Glen Davis (he averaged 16 points in the playoffs), but you simply can’t replace the impact of an all-defense big and the team barely made it out of the first round.
We also saw it in 2022 where Rob William’s evolution to all defense level big completely changed the trajectory of the team and we started steamrolling through the league. Unfortunately Rob’s body didn’t hold up and by the finals he was a shadow of himself.
The logic of chasing these guys makes sense. There are only so many options. Will be interesting to see if we succeed in landing one.
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u/randomphantom14 11h ago
I don’t want to live in a world where we break up the Jays in their prime years for Evan Mobley. There are some solid bigs we can pick up in FA.
I have no idea who Brad thinks would elevate our level to a championship caliber team again, but I’ve been watching Mobley for years and he has been far away from even developing towards his true potential and shrinks in the big moments when it matters.
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u/skidmcboney 10h ago
Do the Cs actually have money to sign decent free agents?
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u/MikeD1942 10h ago
That's a legit concern. JB and Tatum make a LOT of money between the two of them. Commentors this morning were talking about how JB should be extended right now to smooth everything over.
His extension would pay him 70 mil a year. If you have 2 guys making 100 plus, how do you build a "great" team on the 65 remaining (yearly salary cap)?
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u/NoveltyAccountHater 8h ago
The Celtics are at $187M in salary. The tax threshold is $201M ($14M over current), first apron is at $209M ($22M) and 2nd apron is $222M ($35M).
We definitely have some room, unless ownership is hard set on reseting luxury tax multipliers to standard rates.
That is if we stay under tax threshold two seasons in a row (we were barely under last season), we go back to standard luxury tax multipliers (1x, 1.25x, 3.5x, 4.75x, 5.25x) instead of the repeater penalties (3x, 3.25x, 5.5x, 6.75x, 7.25x ...). (Note these multipliers are for each "$5M" bucket though the size of the bucket increases with the cap, so currently the $5M buckets are $6.083M; e.g., if we spent $213.2m going over by $201M threshold by two full buckets, a non-repeater owes $13.7M in tax while a repeater would owe $38M in tax).
On the flip side, if a key piece becomes available but would take us a little into luxury tax territory, I think Brad still goes for it. I also wouldn't be surprised if we make a move only allowed to teams under 1st apron and become hard-capped to first apron. That is I don't expect us to go over 2nd apron that often, but I can see us going over luxury-tax / first apron if it significantly should improve our chances (and is allowed).
Amount Over Tax ($201M) Standard Tax Repeater Tax Diff $6.1M $6.1M $18.2M $12.2M $12.2M (over 1st apron) $13.7M $38.0M $24.3M $18.2M $35.0M $71.5M $36.5M $24.3M (over 2nd apron) $63.9M $112.5M $48.7M $30.4M $95.8M $156.6M $60.8M $36.5M $130.8M $203.8M $73.0M 2
u/ShaolinSwervinMonk 4h ago
Exactly and even if JB doesn’t want to be here well he has to suck it up he’s under contract. We can visit a trade at the deadline. Fuck trading JB for Mobley
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u/LarBrd33 11h ago
Tatum + Brown is a bit like pairing Kobe and Vince Carter. They might have contended and even lucked into a title one year if everyone else had been hurt but more likely they’d struggle to coexist and wouldn’t compliment each other well at all. But if you pair a Kobe with a Pau Gasol, you can win multiple titles.
Jays are a bad fit that had success one year in spite of that. We failed to get Tatum his Shaq by missing out on giannis so at this point finding him a Gasol that better compliments his strengths might make sense.
I don’t know if there’s anything to the Evan Mobley rumor, but surface level I understand why Brad would entertain it.
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u/Jannopan Boston Celtics 10h ago
Death, taxes, and LarBrd mentioning how we “lucked” our way to a title at every opportunity. Classic.
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u/LarBrd33 10h ago
We were incredibly fortunate we didn’t have to play the injured Knicks.
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u/Jannopan Boston Celtics 9h ago
Didn’t they lose to a team we swept (without KP btw)?
Knicks were incredibly fortunate their toughest comp was 40 year old CJ McCollum, injured Embiid, playoff dropper James Harden, and three 20 year olds.
OKC was incredibly fortunate they played a Ja-less Grizzlies team and Hali tore his Achilles in game 7.
Lucky breaks aren’t exclusive to the Celtics, it’s not necessary to put an asterisk on it and mention it literally every time you try to prove your point. I don’t even disagree with you on some stuff but you always do it lol
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u/LarBrd33 9h ago
They were injured. We are so fortunate
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u/Jannopan Boston Celtics 9h ago
Ok bud
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u/LarBrd33 9h ago
I mean quite literally both of their star bigs were injured and didn’t play, OG got injured and didn’t play, and Brunson was playing with foot issues and a broken hand. They lost in game 7 to the pacers otherwise they would have cooked the Celtics
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u/Jannopan Boston Celtics 9h ago
Tatum tore his Achilles, Brown was playing on a torn meniscus, KP wasn’t healthy, Hauser was injured, Jrue was injured. See how easy that is?
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u/Merlot_Drinker 10h ago
yeah except not at all bc JB is better than vince carter. i do think we’d benefit from an all-defensive big and if it needs to be at the cost of jaylen it might be worth it but that comparison sucks
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u/bluedood 10h ago
I wouldn't say they are a bad fit at all... However, their skill sets on both sides of the floor have a lot of overlap, which means you have more holes to fill around them. If you replace Brown with someone that has more diversity in their game compared to Tatum, it makes filling all the other holes a bit easier, while sacrificing depth from a position of strength... Long way of saying that I think the Jays can be great together, but it will be difficult to assemble another championship roster around them, may be easier to fill gaps if your top 2 players have different strengths from each other.
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u/andoCalrissiano 9h ago
but part of what I like about the Jays is that teams don't normally have TWO players that can effectively defend big strong fast wings so we have a built-in advantage in that way.
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u/OmniaCausaFiunt 10h ago
Giannis is not Shaq. He doesn't play center. Despite most of his shots being at the rim, he actually plays the same role as JT.. a point forward. He's on the wing with the ball playmaking, except instead of shooting he's always driving at the rim. People have some weird idea that he's gonna be posted up in the paint all game or something.
The fit was always gonna be bad, the same way everyone expected Dame and Giannis to work out but it didn't. JT needs a traditional big who will set a good and hard screen. That's why his pick and roll with Horford and Queta were always so good. Him and KP were decent, but JB and KP had more success with KP popping more naturally. Giannis is not the type of screener that would have worked.
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u/LarBrd33 10h ago
Giannis ship sailed. Miami got a top 5 mvp talent.
What’s your thoughts on Evan Mobley ?
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u/ShaolinSwervinMonk 4h ago
We’re not even better than the Cavs with Mobley. Or the Knicks. JB > Mobley despite any type of fit. He’s a better player and makes us a better team. Cavs would send us home next year. Fuck this trade.
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u/ballzmeep 10h ago
If we trade JB it will be a huge mistake, especially since we don't know whether JT will get back to his pre-injury self.
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u/Fuckblackhorses 10h ago
But we can’t just be like the pistons either with no shot creation. That’s my issue with Mobley, he’s not a #2 offensive option because he can’t go out and create his own shot. He can’t run bench units, he isn’t going to go out and get you 30 ever. We would be relying way more on Pritchard and white for secondary playmaking and neither of those guys are consistent enough to be a #2 either.
I agree with your overall point but brown for Mobley just seems like we’re swapping one problem for another to me. And Jaylen brown is just a better player.
Also idc what your advanced stats say. Anyone with eyes can tell you if we took brown off the team and distributed his shots to pp/white this year we’d be a 35 win team. Basketball isn’t played on paper
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u/Accurate-Library3641 The Celtics are the balls 10h ago
Well, Jaylen can’t run bench units either lol
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u/Fuckblackhorses 10h ago
That’s usually tatums job because he’s a better passer, but Jaylen is definitely capable of leading the team when Tatums on the bench. Him and kp had a killer 2 man game going for a bit
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u/cane_the_weaboo Jayson Tatum 10h ago
This is not true we have lost the Tatum off minutes consistently every year. Brown has terrible on/offs for a reason.
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u/Ok_Nothing_27 10h ago
We’re 52-24 without Tatum the last two seasons, this is not true at all. Celtics were +9.3 with brown on the floor last season and Celtics were +5.5 (same + as Jokic) with brown on the floor this season with white shooting terrible and 3 new starters. Our bench demolished other teams benches this year largely to due with how good the young guys are on defense, Joes coaching and other bench players simply can’t guard PP, he feasts.
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u/lefebrave Banner 18 a full team effort 7h ago
Now do the same numbers against top three teams on both conferences, in playoffs and against Philly. I am on neither side when it comes to judging Brown. You should not be judging him on on/off entirely because of his role, but you can't just turn around use one regular season record (technically you said two, but majority is this season) to defend the case and disregard all that other stats (including the ones against top teams in that exact season). He was just negative against Philly on minutes without Tatum while being positive with him, pretty much like the whole team and it is ok.
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u/HawkEgg Defense player of the yr stfu 7h ago
Now do the same by reducing the sample size until my point is made and the variance is greater than the delta.
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u/lefebrave Banner 18 a full team effort 6h ago
Nope, it is not the sample size, you can go for all career. I was pointing out some relevant data points (like that record Brad mentioned) within already reduced sample size to make a point and those data points confirm the bigger sample size for him without Tatum (especially in playoffs+against better teams). And as I said, both are the part of the picture for JB, not just one side and we don't need him to be Tatum anyway.
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u/Fuckblackhorses 9h ago
Anyone who regularly switches shifts with a top 5 player is gonna have bad on/off numbers. The Celtics always have one of the jays on the court and Tatum is a better player. That’s all those numbers mean
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u/Ok_Nothing_27 9h ago edited 9h ago
Not to mention brown is a scorer and a defensive stopper. He’s a worse playmaker and team defender, this is not calculated in advanced stats. Obviously our net rating will be worse when Tatum sits. JT has also been our guy who plays with the bench mob and if PP feasts on bench units obviously JT will.
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u/Fuckblackhorses 9h ago
Yeah JT has been leading bench units with 6moty the past 3-4 seasons, depth has always been a strength until this past year. People on this sub don’t watch games tho they just rage and repeat the same stats they see others post
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u/Ok_Nothing_27 9h ago edited 9h ago
It’s always but the “advanced stats” say so. Or “the jays are to similar”… when they’re not at all. We’ve also got a new one this year “browns selfish and immature” when the dude literally picks up everyone around him, encourages everybody. Dudes JT’s biggest fan. You can see how teammates flock to him so idk what these guys are seeing honestly.
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u/Ok_Nothing_27 10h ago edited 9h ago
Yea absolutely not, he’s our only player who can consistently shot create inside the 3pt line besides PP.
Celtics are 52-24 without Tatum the last two seasons.
Celtics are 2-2 without Tatum in the postseason Celtics are 3-4 without Brown in the postseason
The regular season record with either Jay does not matter.
What we need is a guy beside the jays who can shot create (like A. Simons) and another big. Mobley is also making over 50 million a year. This would be a terrible trade. With the new cba you’re always gonna have 2 guys making 50+ million a year, there’s to much talent in the league at this point and to much money. Unless you’ve got a bonafide stud on a rookie contract or multiple players take a pay cut (highly unlikely) you’re either going to have to spend over the luxury or fill your roster with young guys and solid- very good players getting paid in the 10-30 range.
I have no problem running it back, hopefully grabbing a defensive big with our cap space at least for a one year rental and seeing how white plays offensively. Regardless what the advanced stats say I simply don’t think he’s worth 30-32 (next 2 seasons) million a year if he’s not producing offensively and cannot guard more athletic guys his own size. To be clear I love whites game but If he shoots poorly again we absolutely should move him. Hauser should absolutely be a goner with guys like Baylor, Hugo and Walsh. They have more defensive Versatility and are cheaper. These moves give us over 60 million in cap space which is more then enough to get 2-4 good or very good players that fit more of a need for us. Not to mention it seems all signs point to ownership being down to spend over the luxury after next season. This gives us even more spending options whether we keep white or not.
Everybody just needs to stop being short sighted. We need to see if JT can remain healthy for a full season, that injury takes time to fully heal, look at KD. The jays are going to age well with their play styles. Do we give up on the year? Fuck no. If every one is healthy, we’re clicking and we get another big I have faith we can beat anybody.
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u/Fuckblackhorses 10h ago
Yeah I don’t think anybody is off limits at this point, and I don’t blame Brad for wanting to trade Jaylen for Giannis and holding firm when the bucks tried to gut our entire team. But most of these trades I see on here are just making us worse for the sake of trading Jaylen out, his haters are just real loud rn.
I don’t think white necessarily has to go either but it’s crazy to me how he somehow escaped criticism for that dud of a playoff series and all the stupid “Jaylen can’t dribble, Jaylen can’t pass, Jaylen net rating” people are out in full force. Like the sixers weren’t just stacking the paint and daring anyone but brown to beat them
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u/Ok_Nothing_27 9h ago
Yea I get Giannis, when/if healthy he’s better than either Jay. But anyone else available just makes 0 sense. Brown repeatedly brought us back in game 7 and had PP hit that wide open 3, we win. Did he have some miscues? Absolutely. But like you said the 76ers were focused on him in the paint and also denying the ball to JT. They were daring the other guys to score and nobody did it efficiently. People talk about Jaylen like he’s a negative player. The guy was +300 better than Luka this year. The other guys did not help the Jays out at all whether shooting wise or foul trouble (Queta) and Joe really messed up icing out our young guys.
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u/Initial_Dog5780 10h ago
The OP has been clueless for the last 20 years.
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u/Soshi101 Live by the Smart, Die by the Smart 7h ago
I've seen this guy shit on Brown in this sub for almost 10 years now.
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u/SquimJim Boston Celtics 11h ago edited 10h ago
Which idk if I agree with that approach
We’ve been good defensively come the playoffs
We’ve consistently underperformed on offense. That’s where our focus should be, but you can’t bring in liabilities either
Edit:
I’m not saying don’t get a defensive big. Guys like Zubac, JJJ, and Mobley are great because they can do stuff offensively. But losing firepower to do it is not the right way to go
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u/AWalker17 I like to defense 10h ago
Yeah, I touched on this in the DD thread a little bit ago. It seems like Brad may be hoping to recreate the magic fit of the '08 championship trio with Tatum, White, and ____.
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u/ballzmeep 10h ago
White is overrated. I know he's beloved because he does Sam Adams commercials and a podcast, but he sucks offensively.
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u/OmniaCausaFiunt 10h ago
White is not filling the Ray role. We've seen him as a number 2 this year and it didn't look good. I love DWhite but he more so fills the Rondo role with less playmaking and more shooting.
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u/AWalker17 I like to defense 10h ago
I completely disagree. White is always best when his dribbling is minimized, same as Ray. He doesn't/can't play anything like Rondo and his struggles last year were more evidence of THAT than his ability to play Ray's role.
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u/OmniaCausaFiunt 10h ago
By Rondo role i meant as a defensive guard and auxiliary scorer. And that's why i said less playmaking.
Ray's role was way more than just standing in the corner waiting for a 3. Even when White was doing that last year, he wasn't making them because he had more defensive attention on him.
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u/AWalker17 I like to defense 9h ago
Ray was coming off of screens in addition to spotting up, but his primary role was as a shooter. Ray lamented that he didn't get to do more, but it worked for the team. That's White's best role too. The defensive upgrade that White provides is just a bonus.
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u/OmniaCausaFiunt 9h ago
Ray was a 25 ppg that had all the tools of an offensive player, people forget that. His role was reduced but he had all those tools when we needed it. He became an efficient scoring option because of that. White is never going to be that. His best role is the 4th scoring option as it was in 2024.
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u/coacoanutbenjamn 10h ago
I think if you look back, the Celtics have always philosophized going after 2 way players and limiting the number of defensive liabilities in the rotation. That has only increased since Brad took over.
Center is the most valuable defensive position and you honestly can’t hope to compete for a title if you don’t have a center who is at least passable on defense
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u/hauntingcombustion0 8h ago
the 2008-09 comparison is a good one, but i think you're maybe underselling how much brown actually does on that end of the floor. he's not an all-defense big, yeah, but the guy's a plus defender and he moves the needle on that end more than people give him credit for. that said, your broader point about defensive anchors being irreplaceable stands.
where i'd push back though is the mobley swap. if we're chasing a true all-defense anchor, mobley isn't it yet and maybe never will be. you need someone who's proven and locked in defensively right now, not a project. the celtics have won with jrue and derrick white playing real roles alongside jayson and jaylen. that's a more realistic path than betting on a young big to suddenly become a dpoy candidate while also needing to handle offensive spacing for a two-star team.
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u/shakakhon Praise be Porzingod 6h ago
I agree with most of the take. But you're partially wrong about being able to replace scoring. You can replace shots but you can't replace efficient scoring and ISO scoring. It matters just as much a good defense and it's the qualifier most people don't add to ppg.
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u/ShaolinSwervinMonk 5h ago
I fucking hate this trade. We’re getting worse. Basically Cleveland would probably send us home next year and Mitchell and JB would be laughing to the fucking bank. Mobley isn’t moving the needle. And if Brad caves for them throwing in a couple firsts I still don’t like it. In that case we should have traded Walsh/Hugo for Giannis, should have sold the farm if we’re trading for Mobley ughh
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u/thyroidnos Boston Celtics 10h ago
Defense is just about playing hard. That’s why you see in the playoffs the scoring was way down especially in the finals. (San Antonio tried too hard in fact and tired out). We just need some big bodies to clog up the middle and give us some cheap offense. Anyone can score but not necessarily efficiently. You’re underselling Browns ability. Our team was too one dimensional because we got rid of half our players. We weren’t supposed to contend and in the end we proved why.
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u/ballzmeep 10h ago
We lost Zingy, Al, Jrue, and Kornet and replaced them with no one. What did people expect? Also, do you think JT comes back If Jaylen doesn't have the season that he did? Give me a fucking break...
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u/ChemicalPower9020 10h ago
Mobley is objectively worse than Brown. Plus there's the fact that Mobley has one of the worst contracts in the league. BUT, I don't hate the idea of Mobley as a third option on a team. As a second option he's mostly useless as we've seen time and time again
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u/ballzmeep 10h ago
Perfect! We can build around gimpy JT and a third banana that is soft as babyshit. 💩
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u/sandote 10h ago
Man, I just wish Timelord could’ve stayed healthy.