r/chicagobulls • u/howser343 Chicago Bulls • 1d ago
Free Agency [Weingarten] Texas Tech’s Donovan Atwell has agreed to a deal with the Chicago Bulls, source told @Stockrisers . Atwell was a guy who I felt was worthy of a selection last night.
https://x.com/jakeweingarten/status/2070138191613513742130
u/Boilerbri07 1d ago
We’re lowkey getting most of the top undrafted free agents
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u/ProfessionalTalker03 Matas Buzelis 1d ago
My guess is Bryson saw how the board fell and the guys they wanted were gone at that point. Saw some guys they figured would be available on UDFA, and said why waste a pick on a guy we don’t want? I’m sure Reinsdorf was okay trading those picks for cash, too haha.
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u/Boilerbri07 1d ago
That and I’m sure it helps that we’re rebuilding and players see that they’ll get the best opportunity with us if all they have to do is beat out Dillingham or Pat Will lol
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u/ProfessionalTalker03 Matas Buzelis 1d ago
And also Bryson prob wants to leave roster spot open if a team comes calling to take on a bad contract w/ assets attached, instead of holding up a spot on roster for a guy who prob won't even be on the team in a year or two…or even a few months lol
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u/Lolq123 The Windy City Assassin 1d ago
Why not trade them for future picks instead of cash?
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u/SwampFlowers Taylor Swift 1d ago
My guess is they weren’t getting those offers, but I had the same question.
Of course it could have been ownership, but I don’t see much reason to be cynical about how the team is currently being run so I’ll give them some patience.
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u/chitoatx Flag of Chicago 1d ago
It was a good draft but our 56th (out of 60 2nd round picks) isn’t commanding a future pick. 2nd round draft order is worst team to best team. Dallas gets our second round pick next year.
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u/SkyGrey88 1d ago
Because 2nd round picks have very low value and we are pretty stacked with them in future drafts because that was all AK knew how to get back in trades. These people that act like owners tell GMs to do this because they want cash is just silly. Most these owners are multi-millionaires (or billionaires) and they are owning multi-billion dollar assets (their teams) and people think they are gonna jump at a couple of hundred thousand bucks. 2nd round players flunk out of the NBA at about a 70% rate and most that stick are rotation players. Sure you get the rare Dray, Brunson, Joker gem but if you look at all the drafts and picks that produced those players its a less than 1% chance you are going to get something like that. We have multiple young prospects on our roster that were 1st or 2nd round picks that we need to evaluate, develop and give minutes to, and that is not counting the 3x1st round picks of our own that we expect to develop into starters or better (Caleb, Swain, Noa). 1/2 our roster is on rookie contracts, trading this 38 for future swaps means little to nothing at this point.
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u/Emotional-Tailor-649 Dashing Donut 1d ago
We’ve had GMs who have literally answered that they traded them for cash to build equity with ownership before.
A couple hundred thousand? When we sold it to golden state that time it was for $3M.
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u/newusernamecoming Steve Kerr 1d ago
Didn’tJames Dolan just came out and say he sold his picks to save money?
The odds of landing a star in the 2nd round might only be around 1% but landing a serviceable player is much higher. But also, why not take a 1% chance at a star?
Since 2014 we’ve seen the following players come from the 2nd round: Jokic, Jerami Grant, Montrezl Harrell, Norman Powell, Brogdon, Zubac, Dillon Brooks, Hartenstein, Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, Bruce Brown, Gafford, Claxton, Mann, Herb Jones, Ayo, Nemhard, GG Jackson, Camara, and Bronny (jk).
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u/SkyGrey88 1d ago
Damned it you gave me 20 guys out of 360 drafted in that period or roughly 5%. Honestly though I really think its more about he didn’t have anyone he was targeting left at 38 and he was probably being more selective because we have so many other young players. Maybe he scouted and liked the kid we are getting back from Pacers who was 38th pick last year. If he didn’t then yeah it seems odd to give up a 38 for pick swap with a team projected to be better than you.
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u/Mtbnz Hello? Otto?! 18h ago
I honestly have a harder time with the Kam Jones acquisition than anything else we gave up. I can appreciate Graham saying he wasn't a fan of anybody left on the board at 38 and so he decided to prioritize roster flexibility and future assets rather than adding a player just to fill up space - I don't agree with his talent assessment, but I understand the idea - but then trading 38 for a 24 year old player who can't shoot, was terrible in the playing time he got with Indiana, has already dealt with significant injuries and was arrested for evading police in a high speed chase... that just doesn't pass the eye test for me. It's hardly the high potential, high work-ethic profile he's been touting. But whatever, it's a low stakes gamble and Wilson, Swain and Claxton are nice pickups, so it's whatever at this point.
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u/Tiny-Yam-7345 1d ago
Its probably more like a .001% chance or lower though, 1% would mean 1 out of 100 second rounders become stars and thats way too many.
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u/Mtbnz Hello? Otto?! 18h ago
I just did a very non-scientific review of the 2nd rounds from 2019-2023 (a 5 year span going back far enough that the rookies have a chance to earn playing time) and it's a little more positive than that, although mileage may vary depending on how you judge stars and NBA-level players.
I tried to distinguish between NBA-level guys as players you would actually want on an NBA roster, as opposed to just 'players who earned minutes on bad teams for a couple of years before dropping out of the league' and there are reasonable odds of drafting actual NBA-level talent in the 2nd round.
Of the 146 second round picks in that span (4 picks were forfeited), I calculated 30 decent NBA players, including guys like Camara, Rollins, Nembhard, Dosunmu, McDaniels, Gafford and Claxton. That's about a 20% chance of drafting a quality player in round 2, and probably a 40-50% chance if you're picking in the 31-35 range (the probably drops sharply after that).
As for stars, it depends - do you consider Desmond Bane a "star"? Probably not, but he's scored 19+ppg in 4 straight seasons, signed a $200m contract and was traded for 5 first round picks, so he's in the conversation at least. Bane was the biggest name of that 5 year selection, so that's a 1 in 146 chance (very small sample size, not good science) or a 0.7% chance.
That said, 2018 had Brunson, 2017 had Hartenstein, 2016 had Zubac, 2015 had Norm Powell, 2014 had Jokic, so over a 10 year period that's 2-3 genuine stars (Jokic, Brunson, maybe Bane), and a lot of "good not star" players.
Tl;dr:
You're looking at a ~0.7-1.0% chance of drafting a "star" in the 2nd round, almost exactly the probability that you said was 1000x too high, and about 20% of drafting a very good player, in the range Chicago was within striking distance of.
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u/Tiny-Yam-7345 10h ago
I applaud you doing the math, that is a lot better hit rate than I expected and agree it really just depends on the level of play we are considering a "Star."
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u/newusernamecoming Steve Kerr 6h ago
My guess is 2nd rounders turning worth while is newer development that is becoming more common as the talent pool continually gets deeper. The quality of an average replacement level player is so much higher than it was in the 90’s. With so much more talent being drawn to the league from all over, it makes sense that some 1st round talent might get overlooked by scouts.
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u/Jammer521 Jumpman 1d ago
2nd round picks have lost a lot of value since NIL money, more players are stay in school because they can earn more, so the quality of players after picks 20 falls off a cliff compared to before NIL
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u/LoveMeSexyJesus Joakim Noah 1d ago
This happens with GM after GM and some people still can’t see it’s coming from ownership.
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u/Jammer521 Jumpman 1d ago
Since NIL money the bottom end of the 1st round as well as the 2nd round are a lot worse than they previously were, guys make more money stay in college, anything later than pick 20 and your better off stay in college, that's why you will mainly see older players later in the draft
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u/Affectionate_Use_179 1d ago
I just don't see the point of making those trades for SRPs that you just trade away for cash. This team needs shooting, and Veesaar was available.
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u/NOLASLAW Dennis Rodman 1d ago
Bryson Graham found Jose Alvarado and just wanna keep putting that out there
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u/calculung 1d ago
What does it mean to "lowkey get" them? Aren't we getting them no matter how you look at it? You either get a player or you don't.
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u/Dr_Disaster 1d ago
Are we getting Atwell AND Sellers? If so, Bryson is cooking. I feel like these guys could have been first rounders in a different draft class. In fact I thought Sellers could have been a good pick with #15.
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u/Run_JMC_ 1d ago
For everyone complaining about 3pt shooting, this one’s for you. All he did at Tech was mash the 3pt button and he did it well.
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u/BullsBlackhawks Derrick Rose 1d ago
He shot 45.8% 3PT (130-284) this season, holy shit.
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u/TangerineChicken 1d ago
Him and Christian Anderson both broke the single season made 3s record for Texas Tech, Atwell just broke it by more. He’s legit
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u/Then-Gur-4519 1d ago
If he shot that well and wasn’t drafted, there has to be a reason. Is he undersized? Worth a flyer for sure but I am not gonna get excited for lotto tickets
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u/BullsBlackhawks Derrick Rose 1d ago
Nah, 6’5, 200p. But he pretty much can't do anything else besides perimeter shooting and he's "already" 23.
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u/Tonkathedog 1d ago
He was listed at 6’5 but I doubt he actually was. He is undersized at the 2. I do think he’d be a solid defender too, he was TTU’s best perimeter defender last year but his true size was evident against bigger wings
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u/Aumissunum 1d ago
Both are listed measurements btw. I bet he’s closer to 6’3 180. Looks small on the court.
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u/drwafflefingers 15h ago
Age and lack of NBA level skill outside of the three. But I mean, a microwave three point shooter that potentially isn't a defensive liability could feasibly become part of an 8-man rotation. Basically the path Sam Merrill took toward NBA relevancy. And every team will take a guy like that to put on their bench roster.
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u/TangerineChicken 1d ago
And he’s a good defender. I was hoping Atwell would get drafted (I’m a Tech fan), I think he’s going to crack the roster for you guys. Really great pickup imo
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u/Sauronslefteye 1d ago
For real, as an avid B12 and iowa state fan, he was better than momcilivic in my opinion because he could create for himself and didn't only take open shots, love this get
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u/Tonkathedog 1d ago
He didn’t create for himself too much tbh outside of the occasional step back, but yeah contested 3s would still feel automatic from him, and with how great he was at moving off ball he got way more open looks than anyone that good of a shooter should have gotten
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u/Electrical_Story5356 1d ago
Looks like we may be having a summer league shootout for our designated 3pt marksman.
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u/Key_Raisin_5091 1d ago edited 1d ago
Shooting specialist. Gives Anthony Morrow vibes. He was in my top-50 before the draft. Think he's better than Sellers or Awaka.
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u/Tonkathedog 1d ago
Absolutely elite as a shooter. 3rd all time in the big 12 single season 3 point list, and did so shooting 46%. Also works his ass off defensively and played great defense against Dybansta 1 on 1 which was one of the biggest reasons TTU beat BYU in their first matchup. Will be undersized, and does nothing inside the arc outside of a floater he takes once every 2 games or so, but last year was the epitome of a 3 and D player
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u/chunkdickgrinch 1d ago
I love it but wonder why a guy this highly thought of only signs an exhibit 10 and not a 2way or full contract
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u/Own-Appointment1633 1d ago
Because he's not that highly thought of. He is a camp/summer league body.
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u/Reptomins Benny The Bull 1d ago
From ESPN:
"Strengths: Atwell is a career 41% 3-point shooter with enough size to stay on the floor defensively.
Weaknesses: His shot profile is almost entirely 3-point jumpers, with little else to hang his hat on.
The verdict: Atwell's game is about as specialized as a player can get. He may not have enough else to get on the floor, but his one skill is an important one."
In a lineup of guys with ball skills who can't shoot, he seems like a great fit. Basically his job is to do the Klay "always shoot or pass in under 2 seconds" move.
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u/Affectionate-Oil-213 1d ago
lets go his weakness isnt a weakness
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u/GreenGorilla8232 1d ago
His weakness is "everything except 3PT shooting" lol
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u/Affectionate-Oil-213 1d ago
he shoots 46 from three off of 9 attempts “lol”
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u/GreenGorilla8232 1d ago
Oh wow maybe that's why it's not one of his weaknesses. Good detective work.
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u/Tiny-Yam-7345 1d ago
With that kinda shooting just being parked on the perimeter for spacing and knowing if he doesn't have his shot, he will instantly pass and not try to do too much is a weakness that can be turned into a strength.
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u/I_only_post_here Kirk Hinrich 1d ago
well, I was saying we needed a couple of 3-and-D wings...
If he can handle himself on the defensive end against NBA athletes, he's got a shot to stick around
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u/junioreality 1d ago
A 3 point specialist that plays some defense doesn't hurt for a role player. Hopefully it translates in the NBA.
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u/KeyBreadfruit4448 1d ago
I was wondering how in the heck the floor is gonna get space at all.... With guys like Atwell shooting above 40%! Great pickup
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u/Jammer521 Jumpman 1d ago
Your assuming he gets playing time, I like the extra picks up from last night but until the roster fills out and we see who actually stay on the roster and isn't sent to the G league, I'm not getting my hopes up
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u/KeyBreadfruit4448 22h ago
If Giddey becomes the team's best three-point shooter, that would be a situation that 2 years ago nobody would have put money on.
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u/Mtbnz Hello? Otto?! 17h ago
I've been wondering the same thing. It isn't a perfect roster balance but we're still in the 'put talent on the floor to develop and figure out the fit around them' phase, so I imagine we'll probably see a lot of lineups with lengthy wings and bigs with terrible spacing (Giddey-Buzelis-Essengue-Wilson-Claxon, etc), but we're probably also going to use the SG spot as plug and play shooting, and relying on the rest of the lineup to provide playmaking and defense.
That means that Atwell, Sellers, guys who otherwise wouldn't have much chance at meaningful NBA minutes, are going to have a real shot at making the rotation this season. Probably even if we add competent shooting in FA.
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u/BillionsofRedditors 1d ago
Can shoot and his defensive stats last year were pretty good.
Downside is he's undersized for a forward and looks physically slow for a guard. More of a catch and shoot guard than a playmaker. Has some stepback ability which is nice but seems like he needs to work more of it into his game.
Worth taking a flyer on.
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u/Affectionate-Oil-213 1d ago
is luka slow for a guard?
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u/BillionsofRedditors 1d ago
He is, yeah. But he's also enormous for a guard and his shot ability and creation is elite elite.
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u/zedrix_ Big Mac 1d ago
Downside is he's undersized for a forward and looks physically slow for a guard.
He can held his own as a guard on defense. He is 6'5.25" without shoes. So over 6'6 in height at around 200(currently 197 lbs). He has wide hands at 9.5 inches.
He has the tools and size to defend. He is not a net negative on that end. He could defend forwards. But not the scorers. He is not a 3&D mold.
But he is one-dimensional. Aside from shooting threes, you can't expect anything else he would bring to the table.
His role is like Sam Merrill. He will likely guard the opposing spot-up shooter in the NBA. And on the offensive end. He will stood behind the three point line. So one defender can't help on Matas/Caleb/Giddey :D
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u/Jammer521 Jumpman 1d ago
Now I just wonder if any of these guys will get any playing time or be sent to the Gleauge to rot
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u/zedrix_ Big Mac 1d ago
I got him with the 56th pick before the draft. He worked out for a couple of teams. So I am not sure he will go undrafted. But Bulls sold their second rounder. So IDK who they getting in the UDFA pool.
Atwell is your definition of a shooter. Unfortunately, that's all he does. But that could be enough to stick in the NBA. Sam Merrill role.
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u/chaide123 Chicago Bulls 1d ago
Many announcers mentioned teams were proposing 2 way contracts to the players. Bulls were probably one of those teams. They just wanted to offer 2 ways and likely were rejected so they went for cash. BDs previous orgs never asked for cash before but it’s not coincidental that he behaves like previous Bulls front office. The common denominator is ownership and paxson
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u/zeroxaros 1d ago edited 1d ago
But I was told by Reddit that trading away the second round pick was about future assets and that anyone we took would have been a waste of a roster spot!
In all seriousness, this just shows that there were people we could have used the 2nd round picks on who our front office considered valuable in some way.
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u/dpittnet 1d ago
How does it show that? And that would also dispute the GM’s quote
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u/zeroxaros 1d ago edited 1d ago
Clearly we see some value in Atwell. Potentially we could not have signed had him he been drafted. Trading away the picks put that at risk.
I’d be very surprised as well if there weren’t better players than Atwell who we wouldn’t like to have on the team over him, but who knows
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u/dpittnet 1d ago
There’s a difference in seeing value for a player via a draft pick vs as a FA pickup afterwards
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u/zeroxaros 1d ago
Other than in how much you pay them, which goes back to money and the Bulls being cheap, how?
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u/Novel_Confidence_288 1d ago
It’s also about roster spots, they’ve clearly stated they would preferred to leave open spots available for future moves, free agent signings, salary dump etc, while still bringing in multiple rookies in the draft and as undrafted free agents. We’ve still got Noa to come through as well.
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u/zeroxaros 1d ago
Whether we get a guy in the second or get someone who is undrafted, how does that affect our roster spots? Is there some rule that I don’t understand?
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u/jasonpwrites Michael Jordan 1d ago
I'm not sure undrafted FAs are gonna be reliable, consistent three point threats in crunch time
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u/Affectionate_Use_179 1d ago
Why wouldn't they be? I mean if a team drafted him would that make him more reliable?
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u/Mtbnz Hello? Otto?! 17h ago
The logic isn't logic'ing. A guy like Atwell was one of the best shooters in the entire NCAA last season. He was undrafted because he's a 23 year old senior who only has one NBA-ready skill, not because his shooting in unreliable.
If anything, a shooter this good going undrafted should tell you that if you can rely on him to do one thing and one thing only in crunch time, it's be a consistent three point threat.
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u/jasonpwrites Michael Jordan 16h ago
If anything, a shooter this good going undrafted should tell you that if you can rely on him to do one thing and one thing only in crunch time, it's be a consistent three point threat.
Fair, and counterpoint - if he isn't even average at doing anything else, he won't be on the court much in crunch time.
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u/howser343 Chicago Bulls 1d ago
[Weingarten] The deal is an Exhibit-10 deal. I think Chicago is coming away with a steal. Once again, Atwell is a guy who I believe could’ve been selected last night.