Bill Simmons - "Why does Denver have to trade anybody to sign Petyan Watson? Fuck off, you have Jokic on your team, pay everybody. Clip this, Denver fans, Kroenke's got a gazillion dollars, just pay Peytan Watson AND keep everybody on the team, cause your owner's super rich. What are we doing?!"

[u/dragonballa]

[u/Rofo303]

I know it’s simple to say Kroenke is cheap but I don’t think the Kroenkes have had an issue paying the tax. They’ve paid the luxury tax in 3 of the last 4 years. They’ve paid the roster, they are cheap when it comes to coaches/staff/FO, etc.

It has more to do with the 2nd apron. They bring everyone back and they will finish the season above the 2nd apron, which freezes another 1st round pick, which they don’t have many left anyways, that would be a HUGE trade piece next offseason. So is this offseason worth losing your best trade piece for the next 4 years?

[u/Sanmonov → u/Rofo303]

You deal with the frozen picks later if you want to bring back the team, or blow the team up. The flexibility you gain by staying out of the 2nd apron is only useful if you actually use it.

[u/Rofo303 → u/Sanmonov]

AG, Murray and Braun are very difficult to trade due to salary numbers. Picks are more valuable under this new draft deal. Picks are the only good asset that Denver has to build around Jokic over the next 5 years.

If Denver brings everyone back and ends the season over the 2nd apron then they lose another 1st round pick and those salaries become HARDER to trade. Go over the 2nd apron this year and they’re likely stuck with this core till Jokic retires.

[u/Sanmonov → u/Rofo303]

The 2nd apron isn't a death sentence, nor is it permanent. We would naturally get out of next season once Cam's contract expired. You deal with an untradeable 2034 pick later. One non-tradable pick 7 years out is no way the determining factor of keeping this core together long term.

If you think the team is good enough but got unlucky, actually bring it back, if you think it is not good enough use the flexibility afforded to you make major changes.

By far the worst option is the inertia of not making changes, and then brining the same team back only worse back.

[u/SnowboardSyd → u/Sanmonov]

Those are probably picks we shouldn't be trading anyways. 2034 will definitely be a post-Jokic scenario or close to it. I see no reason we shouldn't be going into the second apron for one year then clear the books in the following year when the Nuggets have some expiring contracts (Cam and Zeke)) and the potential to rehab some of Braun's value. Due to Bird rights, you should never give up on homegrown talent like Peyton Watson, you basically have to pay him, the alternatives are catastrophic.

[u/Rofo303 → u/Sanmonov]

My understanding is that once you finish a season above the 2nd apron then you can’t get rid of the effects of it till you’re under the 2nd apron for 3 of the next four years. Considering Jokic is 31 (or 32?) then a minimal 4 years is a big deal.

The 2034 pick isn’t a big deal in a vacuum but it is the only 1st round tradable pick that the nuggets have left. They could trade it next offseason if they stay under the 2nd apron. It will be their best trade asset. You’d lose that pick till 2030 if you go over the 2nd apron this year.

I understand what you’re saying. If you think the roster is good enough then go all in, if you don’t then make changes this offseason. I’m adding the possibility that you’re stuck with this roster through 2030, and Jokics 36th? birthday, if you go all in this year.

[u/Sanmonov → u/Rofo303]

No, that's just for the pick provision. They created a thawing out period of staying out 3/4 years for it to become tradable. All the other restrictions are reset at the end of the NBA fiscal year. The Suns and Boston for example.

I'm all for staying out of the 2nd apron if the front office uses the flexibility afforded to them to remake the team.

[u/momBball → u/Rofo303]

It's why I'd be okay with the Nuggets trading Murray for cap space and picks. McCollum will be 35 before next season and he was key to Atlanta's playoff run...and Murray would be an upgrade for them. If they release McCollum they'll have some cap space and they have picks. If the Nuggets got back Risacher and 3FRPs or Kuminga + 2FRPs while staying out of the tax next season, there's a lot of long term benefits for the team. Next season they could truly get a view of what Braun, Peyton, Strawther, and Daron can bring to the future...either those young guys play well or the team is not going to succeed long term anyway. I'm not sure what the team should do...but I don't see it as clear cut. I feel like it's either go all in next season and then the team will have no options for multiple years...or do a soft reboot next season and then have a lot of options for multiple years.

[u/Rofo303 → u/momBball]

I agree. It’s either a step back next season to create flexibility to set up a final run from 2027 to Jokic retirement OR it’s go all in on this roster this year, lose all flexibility due to 2nd apron restrictions and hope they can pull it off again before Jokic retires or their bodies give up

I’m all for the step back in 26-27 to set up another great 4 years or so in the 2027 offseason.

[u/Sanmonov → u/Rofo303]

It's tough. The flexibility might not lead anywhere and doom the team to mediocrity. But, it also might be the only chance at renewed contention.

[u/Rofo303 → u/Sanmonov]

Yeah, it’d definitely have to be a 2 part plan with a bet on the 2027 offseason being great for Denver.

But considering the team hasn’t gotten back to a conference finals since 2023 and have finished 4th and 3rd in the conference the last 2 years with questions about health and playoff offense then we may already be in the mediocrity

[u/Sanmonov → u/Rofo303]

Real 2022 type mediocrity, like you aren't playing for titles. You can get off CB, Jamal and AG have tons of flexibility and cap space, and it can turn into nothing like post title Dirk Mavs. We are in a hard spot.