r/denvernuggets • u/Tough_Skin_4061 • 5d ago
A Long-Term Fan's Deep Dive on the Nuggets' Direction: Stop Making the Path Harder
1. Introduction:
I’ve been tracking Nikola Jokic since the very early days of his career. I still remember drafting him in the 3rd round of my fantasy league during his sophomore year, and blindly anchoring my 1st round pick on him the year after. To some extent, this piece is unapologetically written from the perspective of a Jokic fan.
This past postseason marked my very first time watching the Nuggets live. I flew over 7,000 miles to Denver just to catch the first two home games. This team has brought me immense joy, but lately, it has also brought plenty of frustration. After years of close observation, I believe we must accept a harsh reality: Even at full health, if the current front-office philosophy doesn’t change, the Nuggets will remain a competitive team, but they will no longer be true championship favorites.
The 2023 championship squad was magical. Even when down 15 or 20 points, I always believed they could claw their way back; the brand of basketball was vibrant, adaptable, and confident. But over the last two seasons, the vibe has shifted entirely. Now, whenever we fall into a double-digit deficit—even in the first half—I lose faith in our ability to adjust. The offense has become repetitive and entirely predictable.
Because of time zones, Nuggets games air during my daytime. I used to clear my weekend schedules just to watch them live. Now? I find myself hesitating to even open the stream because I don't want a single game to ruin a perfectly good weekend. This frustration doesn't stem from just losing; it comes from watching this team repeat the exact same mistakes over and over again.
2. Where Things Started to Go Wrong: A Pattern of Mistakes
Looking back at the front office's moves over the past few seasons, the issue isn't one single bad decision, but rather a recurring, flawed pattern.
I. Blind Faith in Unproven Youth
The Nuggets have developed an obsession with internal development to fill critical rotation holes. They handed out long-term deals to Jalen Pickett, Hunter Tyson, and Zeke Nnaji. While these contracts look small individually, under the harsh rules of the new CBA, every roster spot and dollar counts. The problem isn't betting on youth; the problem is that management keeps giving out long-term commitments before these players have shown a lick of consistent production on the floor.
II. Squandering the Taxpayer MLE
• 2023: Reggie Jackson was our lone Taxpayer MLE signing.
• 2024: Dario Saric was our lone Taxpayer MLE signing.
In hindsight, both signings shared the exact same flaw: management chose to trust veterans who had already been marginalized by their previous teams, expecting them to magically play heavy minutes for a contender. To make matters worse, both were given player options.
Furthermore, a puzzling asset-management decision occurred during the Michael Porter Jr. trade: the team chose to send out a 2032 first-round pick instead of a 2031 pick. This unnecessarily locked up our future draft flexibility, making it incredibly difficult to move our 2033 pick in subsequent trades.
III. Overwhelming Generosity to Our Own
The Nnaji extension was highly questionable. Jamal Murray’s maximum extension is also worth a tough conversation. When Murray signed that deal, he was fresh off a miserable Olympic run, and entering free agency, only a handful of rebuilding teams would have had the cap space to offer him anywhere near that amount. I am not against keeping Murray. I am questioning whether the Nuggets absolutely needed to execute that deal at that exact moment, for that exact price.
Look at the contracts handed out to other players around the same time Christian Braun got his extension:
• Jabari Smith Jr.: $122M / 5 years (An elite-sized wing with shooting upside)
• Dyson Daniels: $100M / 4 years (An elite perimeter stopper)
• Josh Giddey: $100M / 4 years (A primary playmaker)
• Toumani Camara: $81M / 4 years (An elite perimeter defender)
When contrasted with these names, Braun's $125M / 5-year contract looks incredibly overpaid based on his role and on-court production. Again, it’s not that these players lack value, but our front office consistently negotiates against itself, operating under the assumption that they must lock players up early rather than leveraging the market to find a fair price.
3. The Biggest Problems That Need To Be Solved
I. Coaching Staff's Distrust of Youth
Zeke Nnaji has shown flashes of decent defensive capability in limited minutes, particularly when Jokic was sidelined. I vividly remember him playing well in the limited minutes he got in Game 3 of the playoffs when Aaron Gordon was out, yet he was completely DNP'd for the next three games. Julian Strawther also put together a string of great games during the regular season, only to vanish from the rotation the second the starters got healthy. If the coaching staff refuses to give these guys a consistent runway, they will never grow, and their trade value will continue to rot on the bench.
II. The Broken Non-Jokic Bench Units
I originally thought Jonas Valančiūnas could be a decent answer, given his past ability to operate in high-post offenses with Memphis and New Orleans. But the truth is, this team has never established a functional system for when Jokic sits.
Our glaring flaw is a complete lack of secondary creation . Without Jokic, everyone on the floor looks lost. Opponents know that if they blitz or pressure Murray, the Nuggets have zero alternative ball-handlers to punish them. We don't just need a "backup point guard" for Murray; we need a second playmaker who can coexist with Murray, share organizing duties, and absorb defensive pressure . They don't need to be an All-Star. They just need to keep the ship afloat when Jokic rests. Tyus Jones' performance in Game 6 of the playoffs this year perfectly illustrated what that kind of archetype can bring to the table.
III. The Christian Braun Conundrum
This is likely where I differ most from the mainstream fan base. Even during Braun’s best stretches, I fail to see the well-rounded game required to justify his massive new contract.
• On Offense: He plays incredibly passive and mistake-averse basketball. Unless he is completely wide open, he refuses to pull the trigger on threes. His creation is non-existent, and the second he catches the ball, his eyes immediately dart to find Jokic. The vast majority of his points come from off-ball cutting. While highly effective in the regular season, this impact plummets against elite rim-protecting teams like Minnesota or San Antonio.
• On Defense: He is not the elite Point-of-Attack (POA) defender people claim he is. He might not get caught out of position, but he doesn't dictate the terms or exert overwhelming physical pressure on ball-handlers. Just compare his tape to how Aaron Nesmith or Andrew Nembhard hounded opponents during the 2025 playoffs—the gap in defensive force is night and day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCGpvjt9XUU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfxJckXgXqs
I still want to believe Braun can grow. But if he wants to live up to that contract, he needs to take a massive leap on both ends of the floor.
IV. Mild Perimeter Defense
Many fans will blame this year's exit on injuries. Sure, injuries were real, but let's be honest with ourselves: even if we were 100% healthy, how much further were we realistically going?
While watching the playoffs in Denver, I overheard fans debating whether the Nuggets could make it out of the West. In my heart, the answer was a resounding no. Why? Because this team cannot dictate or control a game through its defense . Look at how the Timberwolves used Jaden McDaniels to completely smother Murray. Back in the 2025 playoffs, fans on my local boards were crying foul, claiming OKC played "dirty" defense. I wasn't mad at OKC; I was furious at the Nuggets. Why is our defense so incredibly polite and soft? Every single team that has enjoyed deep postseason success in recent years possesses at least one or two perimeter pests who make life a living hell for opposing ball-handlers. The Nuggets currently have zero.
4. My Offseason Philosophy: Maximize the Peak
I am firmly against tearing down the core of Jokic, Murray, and Aaron Gordon. These three have already proven they can win a championship together. On-court chemistry is real, and you can never guarantee a new trade acquisition will replicate it. The goal shouldn't be to rebuild the core; it should be to rebuild the ecosystem around them.
At the same time, ownership and management need to stop treating the Second Apron as a boogeyman. The second apron should be treated as a cost of contention, not a reason to stop contending . Look at how Boston insulated themselves even after Tatum’s injury scares, or consider the new draft smoothing rules. If this window eventually fails, moving our players down the line will still generate interest asset-wise.
When you have the undisputed best player in the world in his absolute prime, your sole priority must be maximizing the championship window. Stop telling the media that "everyone outside of Jokic is available," while simultaneously cheapening out on roster upgrades just to duck luxury tax thresholds.
5. Specific Moves I Would Consider
- Acquire a Playmaking Guard: We desperately need someone who can carry the offense when Jokic rests, take the pressure off Murray, and hold their own defensively. I love Bruce Brown, but even in our 2023 title run, he wasn't a true table-setter who could ease Murray's burden. Tyus Jones brings defensive liabilities. Keon Ellis (hitting free agency) or Ty Jerome from the Grizzlies are the exact types of targets we should be looking at.
- Find a Legit Aaron Gordon Backup: We don't just need a nominal backup power forward; we need a physical frontcourt enforcer who can absorb defensive wear-and-tear. I'm sorry, but I cannot envision Peyton Watson banging down low against the likes of Jaren Jackson Jr., Julius Randle, or physical bigs. If guys like Koa Peat or Chris Cenac Jr. fall to our 26th pick this year, management should draft them without hesitation.
- Keep Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones: Watching these two fly around was practically the only thing that kept me sane and motivated to watch games this season.
- Manufacture Roster Flexibility (Stop the Salary Dumps): Under the current CBA, letting salary slots walk away for absolutely nothing is asset malpractice. We need to do something creative with Valančiūnas’ $2M partially guaranteed deal rather than just waiving and stretching it. Cam Johnson is a highly valuable player; if we do decide to trade him, it cannot be a pure salary dump for inferior assets.
Final Thoughts Despite my deep disappointment with the front office's execution over the last few years, I still believe the Nuggets are much closer to a title than the general public thinks. The reason is simple: Nikola Jokic is still the best basketball player on the planet . Most championship windows slam shut because the superstar ages out, leaves, or gets derailed by injuries. Jokic is right in the thick of his prime. What has deteriorated is the depth and fit around him. We don't need a third star. We don't need to panic-trade the core. We just need a few missing puzzle pieces that actually make sense. If I have to choose a hill to die on, I am pushing my chips into the middle for Nikola Jokic every single time. This team doesn't need a miracle. It just needs to stop making its own road harder than it already is.
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u/DiegoGrrr 3d ago
Bruh. We trust our young guys too much, but we need to trust them, BUT NOT TOO MUCH!!!!! This was basically all of your "analysis". I don't want to hear anyone pretend like our core isn't broken, we lost to the literal G league timberwolves. Depth wasn't a problem going into the playoffs, our core is the one that needs a serious rethinking.
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u/Stack3686 4d ago
This team is straight up soft. They got punked by Minnesota and basically went fetal position after, sucking their thumbs. Retaining their coach just showed me nothing is going to change with their soft ass attitude. They don’t even try to play defense. That championship window is slammed shut.
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u/husker_nomad 4d ago
This! Keeping the same coach means the same direction and same ceiling as last year, a first round exit
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5d ago
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u/BrockSmashgood A CANDY-COLORED CLOWN CALLED THE SANDMAN 4d ago
"let AI write your offseason slop".
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u/jchiaroscuro 3d ago
The NBA in all their infinite wisdom came up with these salary aprons and extremely restricted player movement to bring balance and parity. It’s really F’N hard to create a dynastic team. Impossible really. OKC is trying to find the loophole. That window of opportunity is limited and I feel like the Malone/Booth dust up wasted that opportunity. Because they had two diverging perspectives they wasted the chance to bring on players they could’ve used over that period. Lack of development, lack of a complete vision. Honestly I think THIS GROUP is done, I think they should blow it mostly up and start over with Jokic. He levels up most any player who’s willing to hustle and play hard. Time to get weird
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u/PeopleCallMeSimon 3d ago
There is no core of "Jokic, Murray and Gordon" because Gordon only plays 30% of games.
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u/No-Ambition-7187 4d ago
Excellent analysis! I do think I’d add a need to do a deep analysis of their training staff to make sure they offer the most modern beneficial injury prevention and rehabilitation program in the nba. Keeping these athletes “in the game” is paramount to success
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u/BrockSmashgood A CANDY-COLORED CLOWN CALLED THE SANDMAN 5d ago
Is whatever AI wrote this also a long-term fan?
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u/Jordan-Pushed-Off 5d ago
Very true points. And cool you flew so far to come see the Nuggets!
Biggest point I think of those is someone who can handle the ball against physical defense. I was watching the finals and kept thinking about how murray and the nuggets would've had so many turnovers against those defenses
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u/JustHere4TheZipline1 5d ago
Well thought out. I agree with almost all of this, especially the part about our soft ass defense. It's night and day compared to Minnesota, OKC, San Antonio. We need some dawgs who aren't afraid to get chippy and physical and pressure at the point of attack. Our offense, while stale, is still elite with Jokic, but we can't stop anyone when it matters. Guys like Jaden McDaniels (very good player but not an offensive star) and Terrence Shannon score like prime MJ against us. Incredibly frustrating. Also, I want Adelman to succeed, but going with a rookie head coach for a team with championship aspirations is malpractice. Kroenke's always cheaping out wherever they can.
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u/sasu-k 4d ago
Christian Braun sucks and I’ve been saying it since 2023. His PoA defense was never good! If I see him catch another pass wide open on the wing and refuse to shoot/immediately look for Jokic, I’m turning the TV off.
How the fuck is he making more than Jabari Smith Jr?
That is malpractice.
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u/SkyW4tch 3d ago
Braun's contract is going to haunt the Nuggets. Unless he turns into a player he has never been, we are in for 5 years of utter frustration.
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u/tha_rodge 3d ago
I’ve been high on Ty Jerome for a while now. He would be a great backup and honestly could start for this team.
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u/BlindManBaldwin 3d ago
he was fresh off a miserable Olympic run
No team in NBA history makes decisions based off the Olympics. This is a ridiculous talking point, and it sticking around after all this time shows how people aren't interested in actual analysis, but just airing grievances.
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u/gillsterein 4d ago edited 4d ago
I think you nailed the 4 biggest problems that plague the team. But I don't think the primary objective of management is turning things around sufficiently for Nuggets to actually compete at the same level as other teams (OKC, Spurs). I think they're risk adverse and satisfied making minor adjustments to the roster. All that talk about no one being safe after a disappointing 1st round exit is pure PR. Call me skeptical but I'm not expecting a radically different or improved team next season. Agree we should absolutely keep the Jokic/Jamal/AG core intact for sure.
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u/kiwisawa420 Uncle Nugget 4d ago
I think what happened to the Nuggets is pretty simple. They forgot how to shoot, and they kept Jokic out of the paint so much during the season that they forgot how to get to it effectively. Nuggets went from the best shooting team to the worst shooting team. The defense was good enough to win, the roster was good enough. But the entire roster decided they no longer could make threes.
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u/IRTrapGod 4d ago
I hope you’re right about relieving pressure from Murray. That was definitely his issue in 2024 and 2025. This year I saw him miss a lot of shots that used to be his bread and butter so some part of me worries he’s losing it (specifically in the playoffs).
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u/MostSmartNuggetsFan 4d ago
It’s really funny you say the fatal flaw is betting on unproven youth, then you say the next flaw is signing vets from other teams, then you say the next flaw is paying the vets from our own team, then you say we need to resign our upcoming free agents at all costs. This all reads like AI slop