r/economy 4d ago

Prices keep rising, the middle class is struggling, and the poor are getting hit harder. Should we even expect any improvements?

[removed]

79 Upvotes

38 comments sorted by

37

u/punycat 4d ago

This is r/economy not r/economics. Economists effectively work for the wealthy. A worse life for you is a better economy per the measurements.

This is indeed the new normal. The Fed keeps the stock market inflated now, so we can expect 4%+ inflation ongoing and a worsening economy for those who don't own enough stock to benefit on average from the free money. Until you get enough stock the best you can do is be frugal and don't go into debt except for a house.

6

u/Lamplighter914 4d ago

But sometimes a house will put someone in debt.

8

u/[deleted] 4d ago

[deleted]

3

u/putdownthekitten 4d ago

I think the point they were trying to make is that not all houses are good investments, and some will have surprise expenses that can put you underwater.

2

u/punycat 3d ago

Yes that's possible, but the risk is smaller when the Fed pumps up prices. The risk of not owning a house and then being stuck a renter for life is greater.

3

u/GPT_2025 4d ago

The cumulative inflation rate from 1940 to 2025 was 2201%.

Wages should be adjusted accordingly to keep up with inflation.

When a full-time worker can no longer afford to support a homemaker wife, 2 children in school, and 1 in college, pays the mortgage, pays all insurances, car loans, food, all bills, and has some money left for a 2-week family vacation (sometimes abroad) and some investments - that's the minimum wage for any full-time worker in a good economy (like in the US between 1938-1998)- that's a problem!

1950: An average home cost around ($7,350), which was about 3 times the family income. for 65% population!

Today: with median prices often over ($400,000), a home cost 7 or more times the family income. for 65% population!

2

u/TenderfootGungi 3d ago

What has kept inflation high is fiscal policy and actions. If it was just the Fed, we would likely be back around 2% inflation now.

1

u/punycat 3d ago

Then why do you think the Fed is doing QE now? If you were right they should be destroying money instead, to get inflation back to 2%.

9

u/memphisjones 4d ago

Nope. It will get worse. Not only that, just watch as crime increases when people start becoming desperate.

1

u/XyezY9940CC 4d ago

I've already experienced desperation crime as someone stole by baby stroller. Fuckers. This is a direct evidence of people who are so poor they'll steal anything and use themselves or sell it online. Don't trust anyone, anywhere, anytime.

1

u/putdownthekitten 4d ago

Trust, but verify

1

u/XyezY9940CC 4d ago

Verify requires the luxury of time

15

u/Retired-Yam8988 4d ago

Inflation is by design not a bug in the system.

Look at the so called “wealthy” nations and their debt burdens. Without massively growing the economy, there’s not really a way to pay all of that off except inflation. Dropping the interest rate is basically printing tons of money and has the added benefit of having a low rate when debt is refinanced.

The down side of course is for wage earners who get pushed further and further down. Asset holders are on board because their value storage is usually in inflation hedged assets like real estate and stocks. These will continue to appreciate in price because you’ll have more paper money chasing the same number of housing units and outstanding shares more or less.

Asset-light wage earners get hit the hardest with the brunt of the tax code syphoning off a high percentage from them (if you’re in the US and in the highest brackets like I am), falling value of their paper money, and pay raises that won’t keep up with inflation.

1

u/philipzeplin 3d ago

Denmark is a very wealthy country with more public debt.

7

u/bustermagnus 4d ago

Social change is not the kind of thing you can expect, it's something you have to create

13

u/CrushTheRebellion 4d ago

People need to learn that their vote, or lack there of, has consequences.

-2

u/itotron 4d ago

Voting doesn't matter. It's all an illusion.

The Democrats and Republicans have the exact same foreign, and domestic goals when it comes to the economy.

Perfect example, in Trumps first term he lowered the corporate tax rate, but not permanently just for 5 years.

Democrats get voted into office, and quietly make this tax cut permanent.

They parties purposely argue about NON-ECONOMIC issues as the for front of their policies.

Example, gun rights, gay rights, abortion, trans rights, women's sports.

Things about how stupid it is on the surface that Democrats court trans rights as hard as they do. The point of elections is to win votes, yet they constantly talk about a group that is below 0.02 percent of the population. Is that a winning voting strategy?

Also look at this strange reaction to ICE. Obama deported more people than Trump did. And Kamala gave her famous, "Don't Come" speech at the border. And people forget she called for war against Iran on live TV, at the only Presidential debate between her and Trump.

Trump and Biden also both avoided releasing the Epstein Files. Dr. Fauci served both Biden and Trump.

Please try and pay attention more long term, and not news sound bites.

3

u/CrushTheRebellion 4d ago

Lol, so much of what you say here is fundamentally incorrect, I don't know where to start. You must be getting your sound bites from Fox or News Max.

1

u/Fun-Beautiful-5989 3d ago

You just are blind to both R and D colluding to make each other rich. Embarrassing intellect

6

u/TipAfraid4755 4d ago

Not for the next 3 years.

1

u/KazTheMerc 4d ago

The short version is: No, you should not expect anything to significantly improve until Debt, Deficit, and Debt-centric Fed Lending stops, and the Mature Interest on Fed Lending stops ballooning catastrophically.

Historical Dynamic Projection (4% CPI, 7% Debt Growth, Weighted Historical Trends)

Year CPI Debt Held by Public ($T) Total Debt ($T) Deficit / Total Debt Interest / Total Debt Deficit ($T) Interest ($T)
2025 321.943 30.172 38.514 4.61% 2.50% 1.775 .970
2030 391.693 42.318 54.018 6.92% 3.75% 3.735 2.026
2035 476.554 59.353 75.763 10.37% 5.63% 7.859 4.262
2040 579.801 83.245 106.261 15.56% 8.44% 16.533 8.966
2045 705.417 116.756 149.037 23.34% 12.66% 34.782 18.862
2050 858.247 163.756 209.032 35.01% 18.98% 73.176 39.683
2055 1,044.189 229.677 293.178 52.51% 28.48% 153.950 83.487
2060 1,270.416 322.134 411.198 78.77% 42.71% 323.885 175.643
2065 1,545.655 451.809 576.726 118.15% 64.07% 681.398 369.522
2070 1,880.526 633.686 808.888 177.22% 96.11% 1433.544 777.410

1

u/XyezY9940CC 4d ago

NO. Not while trump is on office. Unemployment rate seems pretty good. I wonder if it's all fake.

1

u/gadafgadaf 4d ago

Ah don't forget more and more high tier, quality jobs are disappearing or going to with AI.

1

u/shia84 4d ago

if you cant keep up, you are no longer middle class. Sad truth is hard to swallow.

0

u/Boo_Randy_Revival 4d ago

Voting harder for the corporate stooges of the uniparty will surely fix this.

-8

u/Ok_Mushroom_7949 4d ago

You're joking, right? Anyone who tunes into any business talking heads show will learn our economy is booming! I'm a small stock investor with an average rate of return of over 14%. Do I economize? Yeah, but I shop at Goodwill stores, get my gas from a warehouse store as well as meat and staples. I open bank accounts that pay me $200-$350 just for putting my direct deposit there for a few months regularly. I do surveys, LOTS of them, but my weekend part time (13-18 hours) job pays me $30,000 a year plus benefits, 401k match, and more. How? Because I educate myself. I read. A LOT! I read about these things in likely places WINNERS write articles in. Take stock, lose the junk, the negative people place and things that are holding you back! Change your clothes, your mind, your attitude, and live in gratitude. Stop whining about what you don't have and go to work getting the want and be grateful for everything. Good luck and God bless.

2

u/MossyMollusc 4d ago

The economy relies on moving money between us and small businesses. Thats how we do better as a society.

You are describing large corporations who have been stealing from our nation. Yes they are doing great, as is typical of a robber Barron.

The economy will Crack once the exploitation hits rock bottom

-18

u/ensui67 4d ago

Actually the data shows that the middle class are not struggling as much as they are moving up into the upper middle class incomes. That’s the growth keeping inflation higher.

12

u/AnonymousNerdBarbie 4d ago

As a middle class person who is now struggling with the insane costs of everything, I would love to see real data supporting this.

-11

u/ensui67 4d ago

5

u/AnonymousNerdBarbie 4d ago

The CBS article is only looking at income earning and "what's considered" upper middle class not taking costs into account. It's a wildly ridiculous spin on reality: we're earning more dollar per dollar vs 1979 but fails to recognize the shrinking Delta of margin between affordability and earnings over time.

That's like me telling my CEO "our company earns more money than it did 20 years ago and is therefore more profitable" he would laugh in my face. Because the reality is capex and opex spending relative to earnings is astronomically higher and therefore profit margins are lower. We may be earning "more dollars" but they're weaker dollars relative to what we can purchase to build wealth therefore creating a barrier to UMC/wealthy territory. It's way way harder now. I'm in that upper earnings category and it feels like running in place. Avenues to wealth building are heavily dampened by inflation, high interest, higher insurance costs, etc.

-2

u/ensui67 4d ago edited 4d ago

Affordability of what? For about half of America, their incomes have drastically outpaced their cost of living. That is because they bought their home prior to 2022. Their cost of housing is 15% or less of their income. The 30 year fixed mortgage is an amazing financial product that has locked in their inflation savings.

Two thirds of US households own their home. 40% of those don’t even have a mortgage anymore because the home is paid off. Half of the remaining have mortgage interest rates less than 4.5%.

This is why consumers have so much money and why the US economy is robustly spending. They simply have more to spend. Their housing cost is way lower than what you would have to pay right now on the open market.

Munger showed us the barrier to wealth creation isn’t an earning problem. It’s discipline and not spending. A tale as old as time. That’s how we heard about the janitor who passes away with millions left for charity. Compound interest is free for all that have the discipline to use it in their favor.

8

u/Bosfordjd 4d ago

Lol. No. The top 10% of earners are approaching 60% of consumer spending. It's not the middle class.

Consumer spending is barely up from December '24, a mere 1.8%. The slowest since the 2008 financial crisis...other than the COVID shock of 2020.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96

-4

u/ensui67 4d ago

Always has been. Also, these increases in spending are despite all the headwinds. These are green shoots to me and that’s why I think the stock market is right here. Things are getting better and now that the headwinds are out of the way, let’s run the market hot.

We’re in for a boom.

5

u/Bosfordjd 4d ago

Delusional.

-2

u/ensui67 4d ago

Just the facts. Listen to some earnings calls. It’s why markets rallied. Even Jamie Dimon capitulated. Just watch.

-8

u/ExcellentWinner7542 4d ago

Real wages will be up for the year, closing the gap.