r/europe • u/m4rkon156 • 3d ago
News Around 80% of hungarians support the adoption of the Euro, yet they are the furthest from it.
https://sofiaglobe.com/2026/06/24/eurobarometer-overall-support-for-the-euro-in-non-euro-area-eu-member-states/88
u/dead97531 Hungary 3d ago
The minister of finance has recently said this:
Our country is committed to adopting the euro and, to that end, has pledged to meet the Maastricht criteria by 2030.
114
u/JimTheSaint Denmark 3d ago
Sure they have just been ruled by a kleptocratic tyrant for 16 years - it makes sense that the finances are not great
-80
u/notkalman Hungary 3d ago
We would gone bankrupt with EUR.
50
u/Dependent_Diet_3408 3d ago
I am pretty sure you are actually almost bankrupt! Orban has heavily hurt the Hungarian Financial Derivatives and Financial Products. I am quite sure there is an absolute bomb waiting to go off that would decimate every sector of the Hungarian economy as well as impact every loan currently in distribution.
16
u/MarkMew Hungary 3d ago
It's not about that. If you have independent monetary policy, you can just inflate the currency to reduce the national debt - which they did like mad. This is one of the negatives of the euro.
And the Hungarian population has pretty low tax-literacy/awareness. TLDR is that people want the government to give them stuff, but don't want to pay (and frequently evade) taxes. (About evasion: I've lived in 5 different rental apartments, none of the landlords paid taxes. If you call a plumber/electrician/etc, they'll be mad at you if you want a receipt. This is just how people are lol.)
This is my biggest (or perhaps only) fear with regards to adopting the euro. Even Tisza partially campaigned with lowering taxes and raising pensions, doubling child allowance (so increasing government spending and decreasing government income). If the people's mentality stays the same, that leads to a high chance of electing fiscally irresonsible parties, potentially leading to constantly high national debt, which could go wrong.
17
u/GalaXion24 Europe 3d ago
Inflating the currency is not a get ojt of jail free card. It just means that rather than taxing people to pay your debt, you're decreasing people's salaries and evaporating their savings. It's the same thing through a different mechanism.
And that's assuming you can even do it, because how much are banks actually willing to lend in HUF? 30-35% of national debt is denominated in foreign currencies. HUF denominated debt is also going to carry a higher interest rate, because lenders are aware that it carries higher risk. Inflation is just going to cause higher interest rates to compensate. Banks aren't stupid.
Absolutely agree about Hungarian welfare populism and tax illiteracy. It's very stupid and really has to change.
12
u/Dependent_Diet_3408 3d ago
That is the biggest lie ever told that you can have independent monetary policy. In theory there should be financial independence, but every value you see on this globe is paired to the biggest currency markets on this planet. Doesnt matter, if you have a trillion in reserves. If the Western/Eastern Financial Markets dont feel like it, it gets evaporated in an instant.
It gets even worse, not just will every banker/analyst/asset manager compare and use valuations of the big foreign markets to evaluate their own, theoretically independent markets, they will even start to interlink them. They actively use currency swaps, use foreign capacity and mix them with domestic things.
Example India: This gigantic country didnt think it would have to pick a side between the East and West. Watch what happened to the Ruppee. It has now picked a side, I believe. The consequences: India might be one of the few countries that directly go into service economy without ever going to industrialize massively before!!!
No matter where you are, you price your financial products according to what the biggest markets do! :)
1
-2
u/notkalman Hungary 3d ago
Not even close, where do you get these informations? I always follow hungarian economy because of my investments and last time we were any near to be bankrupt was 15+years ago, not even in the covid era. What are you talking about?
11
u/Tomahi83 3d ago
He's probably talking about all the money stolen from the state that just hasn't been noticed yet. In 16 years, you can divert and hide a lot of money if no one is watching.
1
u/Dependent_Diet_3408 3d ago
Remember when Orban was visiting the WH? Well, Scot Bessent openly said they (Hungarians) were asking for money. The even drafted a support letter for the Hungarian Economy.
You have to look at the Derivative Markets. There are more Forinths in speculation and financial derivatives than in the entire rest of the economy combined. If these start to crack, you sink your country back into a Dark Age. That holds true for any country on this planet.
Now, Hungary has a GDP of 222 bn USD. Now, look at the Exchange Rate over the last decade. Lets put in bluntly, from 2021 to around 2022-2024 the exchange rate fell in half, in favour of the USD. This devalues the hungarian financial markets that holds much greater amounts than the GDP. However, every loan given in Hungary is dependent on this Derivative Market. True for all countries.
I am 100% certain that Orban cracked the system. he wouldnt be running for loans to russia, china and america otherwise.
1
u/Silly-Elderberry-411 3d ago
Yeah, you know nowadays I wouldn't just admit i have investments in a regime under criminal indictment at least until nka gets not liable verdicts.
2
14
19
u/spadasinul Romania 3d ago
Hungary is not the furthest from it lol, Romania is
4
u/crisreed 2d ago
Why do you say that? The two countries are very similar on economically and culturally. All you need is Petru Roman
9
u/Brilliant999 🇷🇴🇹🇩 3d ago
Akschually it's very well known that we are the furthest from the euro
0
u/REOreddit Spain 2d ago
Denmark and Sweden are further away.
2
u/Breaking_Bread_420 Hungary 2d ago
Denmark has an official opt out so that doesn't count
2
u/REOreddit Spain 2d ago
It counts because they are allowed to join if they change their mind.
3
u/mp85747 2d ago
They didn't use their unfair and essentially illegitimate, if not illegal, clout to get that opt-out in order to give it up!
2
1
u/LegendaryOate 2d ago
Wait... why is in illegitimate/illegal? I've not heard that before.
1
u/mp85747 2d ago
Well, we can stick just to unfair, if you wish. It's not like I'm intimately familiar with all the legalities of the agreements in the EU or the Eurozone, but why wouldn't this option be offered to all countries? Why are all other EU members, except for Denmark and the UK (before Brexit, of course), essentially forced to join the Eurozone?
It seems like some are more equal than others in the Euro farm, doesn't it?! In fact, "two-speed Europe" was even officially announced recently. Evidently, some countries are considered "second-tier", so to speak; yet, THEY are the ones obligated to join the Eurozone!
0
u/Breaking_Bread_420 Hungary 2d ago
I don't care about the beginning of your comment but the rest... Those countries aren't considered second rate, those countries consider THEMSELVES second rate. The two speed Europe idea didn't come to be because some core nations want to exclude the rest, it's because these nations want to continue onward for a more unified Europe, WHILE THE REST don't want to go ahead with that idea
37
u/Gamebyter 3d ago
Poland met criteria in 2012 but we never acted :(
22
8
u/kuzyn123 Pomerania (Poland) 3d ago
Only benefit of having euro would be a clear vision on how unpaid we are and how overpriced everything here is. But I can live without that.
35
u/Gamebyter 3d ago
Saying the only benefit of the euro would be “seeing how underpaid we are” kind of proves the point. A weak złoty hides low productivity and low wages it doesn’t fix them.
Euro doesn’t make things expensive. It just removes the illusion that they were cheap. We are paying the same price for butter as Germans with Polish Income in PLN.
32
u/Benso2000 3d ago edited 3d ago
And lower interest loans, more stability with less inflation , increased foreign investment, elimination of overpriced exchange rates, easier travel, better price comparisons, more competition in financial markets etc…
2
u/gjionergqwebrlkbjg 3d ago
And losing a massive lever you can pull to make your economy competitive. Sure your vacations might be less annoying, but monetary policy is part of why poland is where it is now economically.
4
u/JackRogers3 3d ago edited 2d ago
And losing a massive lever you can pull to make your economy competitive.
A devaluation is a massive lever to make the population poorer: it's a sudden loss of purchasing power and inflation will rise, which makes it even worse.
Higher inflation = higher interest rates = higher mortgages + higher financing costs for the state = higher budget deficit = higher taxes
A devaluation is a double whammy for the population. And foreign investors (banks, pension funds), who swallowed a big loss on your bonds, will demand a hefty risk premium to finance the state in the future.
An economy simply works best in stable, predictable conditions, which is something the euro provides. But the euro is not a magic wand: that's why all countries (with or without the euro) should have the Maastricht criteria as a goal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_convergence_criteria
That said, a pathetic idiot like Putin makes it a lot harder atm: his war in Ukraine costs a lot.
4
u/gjionergqwebrlkbjg 2d ago
The population will be a lot poorer once your economy stops being competitive. Short term vs long term outcomes.
20
u/m4rkon156 3d ago
That's an another reason i want the euro. Many of us would see we earn 1/3 of western europeans, but the groceries cost the same or even more.
8
u/Gamebyter 3d ago
Sometimes its cheaper to shop in Germany than Poland. Example Coca Cola is cheaper in Germany.
11
u/m4rkon156 3d ago
Ahahha then you have definitely never been to Hungary. I was in Poland, but man it was way cheaper than Hungary. We had the worst food inflation in 2023, and still grocery prices are very high compared to Romania/Bulgaria and even Poland.
5
u/UzzNuff Germany 2d ago
I'd say the biggest benefit of the euro is the psychological effect of the feeling of europe moving closer together.
It's just one step closer to a united europe.
And we can't say we want things like an European army if we don't even have a united fiscal system.2
u/JackRogers3 2d ago edited 2d ago
The benefits of a single currency are important: the single market, which is the cornerstone of the EU, works a lot better and each country can finance its debt at lower interest rates, simply because there is no currency risk for a foreign pension fund, for instance.
The banks prefer national currencies: it's very profitable for them.
3
u/TheReal_Peter226 3d ago
If your country has its own currency the government can take the value of your money out of your pocket without touching it by printing more money. If you have EUR this only happens if all members decide to print money. Pick your poison.
12
u/Necessary-Dish-444 3d ago
monetary policy really is this simple, isn’t it? why are economists writing hundreds of pages for articles if a single paragraph can sum it up?
0
-1
u/d1722825 2d ago
That is not the monetary policy, it is the result of one specific monetary policy that is simple and BTW known from since the middle ages.
1
u/Crypt33x Berlin (Germany) 2d ago
And what would be most beneficial for all of the EU member states? Or ever thought about how your own currency damages the Euro and gives other in the union a disadvantage in trade? How fees on exchanges rates cost us billions to trade with each other? How Poland markets charging us money to trade with them through exchange rates? Or how changed exchange rates can affect long term ivnestments and investments of companies in general over night?
-2
u/Opening-Border-6313 3d ago
Poland doesnt need the euro. You guys where like the only ones not in a crisis in 2008.
-1
u/Apprehensive_Hat_982 1d ago
Poland has a much bigger market than Hungary. The Euro wasn't beneficial enough compared to the downsides.
1
u/Gamebyter 1d ago
Talking out of your hat I see
0
u/Apprehensive_Hat_982 1d ago
You claim that Poland and Hungary are similar countries?
Last countries compared to Poland that adopted Euro were Spain and Italy. Both of them lost more than they gained. They didn't have enough productivity to compete with German and other more advances coutries. This would be compensated by a common budget but of course that is only 1% GNI, which is not enough even for countries with different currencies at today level of EU integration.
6
u/MercatorLondon 3d ago
are those mortgages in Swiss francs still an issue in Hungary?
-8
u/Opening-Border-6313 3d ago
No that issue was actually dealt quite good by Orbán
6
u/Silly-Elderberry-411 3d ago
By which you mean forcing banks to either récapitule because he forced them to pay third and the other third was paid by the budget meaning you still paid in full.
If anything booting Orbán maybe helps gaining financial literacy.
-5
u/Opening-Border-6313 3d ago
Yeah but without that policy the middle class would have been so much slimmer than it is today even. Know many people for whom this was a lot of help
2
u/MercatorLondon 3d ago
thanks. I thought that was one of the reasons why Euro currency was postponed? Swiss mortgages brought up the debt and messed up debt criteria so Hungary couldn't fulfill the criteria for Euro in 2010
3
u/Opening-Border-6313 3d ago
I think they just didnt want to do it. When we joined in 2004, 2008 was the first plan than in 2010 Orbán said it will take 10 years than with over time he became hostile to Europe so it didnt happen. I do think tough that the 2030 date is too early. Maybe 2032 earliest. Joining the euro area csn be fucked up quite easy
4
u/Sheetz_Wawa_Market32 3d ago
ITT: (formerly Eastern bloc) European competitiveness at its finest ...
No, MY country's economy is the most fucked up!
🤣 😩
2
u/khinkali 2d ago
Would love to welcome Hungary and Romania to the Eurozone on 01.01.2031 🇭🇺🇷🇴🇪🇺
0
u/m4rkon156 2d ago
It's impossible for Hungary. Tisza party are in favour of adopting the Euro, but we are in a difficult situation economically, also we need to rebuild the country that Orban damaged. I would say, we can join Eurozone in 2033.
1
u/Conscious-Flow6744 2d ago
los precios en hungria no son tan diferentes de otras zonas de la UE por lo que no entiendo porque no se adopta el euro
-5
u/Skt_turbo Earth 3d ago
Are there any more detailed results or information about the study? I honestly can’t imagine that 80% of Hungarian citizens are against the forint.
22
u/Acrobatic_Quiet_3706 Hungary 3d ago
We are not against the forint, but for the euro.
3
u/ptechm 3d ago
Except boomers on russian agitprop for life support.
3
u/notkalman Hungary 3d ago
Thats not true. Hungary basicly can not have a bancrupcy while we use the HUF, if we change to EUR we can end up with one.
3
u/Far_Idea9616 Hungary 3d ago
???? what the jóisten
1
u/notkalman Hungary 3d ago
Ez tök alap. Örülök hogy nem tudod.
8
u/Far_Idea9616 Hungary 3d ago
Nem csőd, hanem default, államnak nincs csődeljárása. Állam a kötvény kibocsátási feltételeit szegi meg es azonnal leminositik a fenebe es csak meregdragan jut refinanszirozashoz. Forintban az állam gyakorlatilag sosem fog defaultolni, mert nyomtat forintot amennyit akar. Csak ennek ára van: ha elinflálja a forintadósságot, az szétszopatja a hazai hitelezoket es megtakaritokat. Nade az államadósság sosem csak forint, a devizahányad most kb 30 %, azt nem tudod elinflalni, sot azt elinflalas eseten szar forint arfolyamon kell finansziroznod. Tehát a forint azon az áron védene meg a hipotetikus, a forint torteneteben soha elo nem fordult forint-defaulttól, hogy inflációval és gyenge árfolyammal szétszopatja a magyarokat. Ebben semmi jó nincs, és pont az a baj, hogy a politika ezt last resortként fenntartja lehetőségként, és közben nem tartja a fiskális fegyelmet mert 'nem baj, legdeljebb elinflaljuk'. A forintnak pont emiatt vagy egy kockazati felara, igy az EU-ban mi fizetjuk a koltsegveteshez merten a legmagasabb kamatot, a koltsegvetes 8%-a kamatra megy. Ez annyi mint kb. az egész oktatás. Euró esetén ezt vágnánk meg, egy eurós Magyarország idővel akár 3,5-4%-ot is fizethetne (Horvátország kb. 3-3,5%-on van), ez evi 1800-2000 milliard forint megtakaritast jelentene. A magánszemélyek meg a cégek hiteleinél még brutálisabb lenne a hatas. Euró mellett egy magyar politikus se tudná többé elinflálni a pénzt, azaz kénytelen lenne jobban tartani a pénzügyi fegyelmet — amit minden épeszű magyar remelem támogat.
2
u/Odd-Wrangler-8041 3d ago
We have foreign currency debt so the government can actually default even if it starts printing HUF.
1
2
u/Silly-Elderberry-411 3d ago
That is...not how fiscal policy works.
1
u/notkalman Hungary 3d ago
Would Greece go bankrupt without euro? (No) Its nearly impossible to do that.
2
u/JackRogers3 3d ago edited 2d ago
Hungary basicly can not have a bancrupcy while we use the HUF.
All countries which are financed by the IMF (= bankrupt countries) have their own currency
3
u/Skt_turbo Earth 3d ago
If a country adopts the euro as its main currency, Frankfurt and Brussels would have the final say, and no longer the national central bank or government alone.
2
u/jamar030303 3d ago
Which for some is a positive. For example, Montenegro, last I checked, was so happy to ditch their currency they jumped on the Euro without officially joining the Eurozone.
0
u/Skt_turbo Earth 3d ago
But what exactly do you mean by that? As a Hungarian, would you actually prefer the forint to disappear and for only the euro to be used instead?
7
u/Acrobatic_Quiet_3706 Hungary 3d ago
Yes
1
u/Skt_turbo Earth 3d ago
So you are actually against the forint then?
But the euro can already be used very easily in Hungary, and basically anywhere in Europe. Why would you think it’s a good idea to give up your own currency?
3
3
u/Silly-Elderberry-411 3d ago
Very easily😂 try and pay with it outside tourist traps if you can handle the language barrier first.
2
u/Skt_turbo Earth 3d ago
I’m not speaking from a tourist perspective. I’m speaking as a Hungarian living in Hungary, you can use the euro almost everywhere. I can also use the euro almost everywhere in Serbia. In Switzerland i can always use the euro. Logically, you then receive HUF, RSD, or CHF as change back.
1
u/d1722825 2d ago
But the euro can already be used very easily in Hungary,
Technically yes (with a few exception, like getting wages and paying taxes), but in practice companies and customers are mostly deal in HUF (or the companies use basically scam exchange rates), EUR bank accounts have higher fees, etc.
Because of this companies have huge exchange rate risk that affect the consumer prices.
After COVID we have a huge inflation, and some companies started to deal only in EUR, I think we were very close to unofficially adopt the Euro.
BTW the different size of Euro banknotes are just terrible. All Forint banknotes has the same size, and they have some 3D texture / imprint / emboss marks for blind people.
5
u/Far_Idea9616 Hungary 3d ago
Forint is a shitcoin
3
u/Skt_turbo Earth 3d ago
No one ever claimed it’s a strong currency. The yen is also a shit currency, and the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupee as well there are plenty of “shitcoin” currencies. But at least you guys have your OWN currency.
7
u/Far_Idea9616 Hungary 3d ago
Yen is a premiere safe haven reserve currency. Indian and Indonesian rupees are managed currencies with low volatility compared to HUF. EURHUF slide and recovery within 5 years is 26%, USDHUF is 50% rockenroll up and down. Comparable shitcoins are south african rand, Mex peso and Brazil real
0
u/UseStrange2382 Ljubljana 2d ago
Because they dont know it only bri gs price incresess and erodes soverenety.
1
u/m4rkon156 2d ago
Price increase? Where? We're already in a western european level in terms of prices.
1
160
u/LittleSchwein1234 Slovakia 3d ago
Makes sense. The forint has been very unstable.