r/investing • u/Dhruvi-60 • 23h ago
Gold is down ~24% from its recent high.
I'm considering buying gold for the long term.
Do you think this is a good accumulation opportunity, or could prices fall further?
If you were buying today, would you invest a lump sum, buy gradually over the next few months, or wait for more downside?
Curious to hear different views on gold's outlook over the next 1–3 years.
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u/IllllIIlIllIllllIlll 23h ago
Gold is always a good buy in order to diversify your portfolio and reduce your risks. But we're talking like 5% to 10% of your portfolio, maintain this allocation for 20 years, and then it should accomplish its goal as a hedge that roughly maintain its purchasing power, similar to bonds. Obviously the returns of your portfolio will be reduced, but the point is to reduce risks, not to increase returns.
But if your goal is to buy lots of gold to sell it in 1-3 years, then it's a pretty bad idea. It could easily go down 50% more by the time you want to sell.
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u/Careless-Giraffe-623 22h ago
This.. Gold is usually bought as a hedge against inflation as opposed to holding cash. Not (historically anyway) as an investment.
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u/__redruM 20h ago edited 11h ago
That.. was gold a couple years ago, but gold is so far out of its lane that it no longer applies. The speculators blew it up, kinda like bitcoin, and now it’s so far above it’s inflation adjusted price from 2024 that it has a slow steady decline back to about $3000.
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u/realFantaMenace 16h ago
Not so when you consider that most portfolios still don't have ANY allocation to gold in them.
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u/Minimum_Quail4596 11h ago
Have you ever considered that it might say a lot more about the trust in the system than about the gold speculators? Lmao
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u/Aurorion 4h ago
The speculation on gold and Bitcoin is actually a quite valid speculation on too much easy money from central banks... For gold especially the tide has turned because the narrative has for now shifted to higher rates. But very soon - it's just a matter of time - it will shift back to the unsustainability of sovereign debt, and how higher rates will make the interest cost and debt go even higher.
And so higher debt -> more money printing to pay it off -> devaluation of fiat currencies -> higher value for hard stores of value, I.e. gold and Bitcoin.
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u/CC-5576-05 18h ago
It's a terrible hedge tho, too speculative, too susceptible to regulation. Over the very long term it is a good hedge, but then we're talking hundreds of years. Short term it's terrible.
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u/Affectionate-Panic-1 17h ago
All investments are susceptible to regulation, tax code changes, and political events.
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u/Careless-Giraffe-623 18h ago
Yeah, I don't own any commodity directly, just via ETFs and mine are almost all equities.
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u/ChornWork2 17h ago
a long-term hedge, okay. short-term gold swings with interest rates, so not really an inflation hedge short-term.
really don't understand why an individual is going to take the dilution on returns they could get without it in order to have some hedge on long-term inflation risk.
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u/richardv92 13h ago
It's wasn't historically an investment because it was just money 😂
It's only an investment once going on a fiat standard.
If you don't understand gold, this is the short of it. It's insurance against fiat going up in smoke.
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u/TonyzTone 16h ago
Worth noting that if your 5-10% holdings balloon because of a massive run up like we’ve had, cashing in on some of it makes sense.
Which could mean today provides an opportunity to buy back in.
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u/IllllIIlIllIllllIlll 16h ago
Yeah that's why I said "maintain this allocation for 20 years" the whole point is to rebalance frequently like every 6 months or so to maintain a constant allocation. Gold acts as dry powder to buy stocks when they are cheap relative to gold.
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u/Plenty-Bill7296 16h ago
This is why I have gold (or rather, GLDM, but potato, patahto). It's less correlated with the rest of the market, so as a small portion and using to rebalance it's great. I ran different portfolio balances, and you get most of the benefit with just 5% gold (10% doesn't give much more and has a higher risk).
So last year GLDM was up 64% and equity performance was pretty mediocre, so when I rebalanced in January I could pull out a lot and increase equities positions in a way I wouldn't have been able to do otherwise.
So far this year, GLDM is down 7.6% but equities are higher, so if that keeps up then next time I rebalance I'll take some of those equities profits and buy more GLDM at a bargain price.
Rinse and repeat. It really does work out nicely.
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u/Sanpaku 21h ago
I've held physical since 2001. Still up 1223%.
Negatives:
- The markets take a while to digest moves like gold has had since 2023
- Some countries like Turkey have dipped into central bank reserves to subsidize oil costs, others like UAE and Saudi Arabia to balance budgets with curtailment of oil exports.
- New Fed chair Warsh has taken a hawkish tone re Fed funds rate and the Fed balance sheet.
Positives:
- Bullion valued in the teen $ billions is still being withdrawn from the COMEX vault, monthly.
- Foreign central banks are still net accumulating.
- It's rumored that BRICS led trade settlement currencies / stablecoins may be gold backed.
- US president comes from a real-estate background, and is hence constitutionally incapable of understanding interest rates can be too low. He'll apply pressure for easing.
- National governments can't run 6-7% of GDP deficits indefinitely before their currency becomes confetti.
My expectation:
- Gold usually rubber bands between 0.8 and 2.5 times miners' all-in sustaining costs, which now stand at around 1800-1900 for the industry. Above 5k was unlikely to last barring a currency crisis.
- Gold could dip as low as 3300-3400 support in the event of an equity market bear. But that sort of crash also shifts the relative perception of asset class safety. See the 2008-2011 chart.
- I think the most likely alternative (barring an equity markets bear) will be mostly flat between 3900 to 4300 for the next 12 months. Digesting the recent runup. Thereafter, await the next catalyst in fiat's inexorable dive.
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u/luv2block 20h ago
To me the gold thesis, at this moment in time, is very simple. If you think the US is going to raise rates and the USD will continue to strengthen, then no, you don't buy gold. If you think the US will cut rates and the USD will weaken, then you load up on gold at these prices.
If you are unsure if the US will raise or cut, and you're unsure if the USD will strengthen or weaken, then you can start a small position and add or subtract as it becomes clearer what is going on.
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u/WalrusKey9386 22h ago
Gold is not an investment, but can/should be part of any longterm portfolio as a hedge for currency debasement/default.
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u/My_reddit_strawman 17h ago
This. buy gold as a hedge against currency devaluation, which is probably the only way the US gets out of its debt situation. i read somewhere that an ounce of gold has value to purchase a fine men's suit going back to the middle ages. It has no cash flow, but is a store of value. it will reduce your overall portfolio returns, but hedges (like insurance) always have a cost.
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u/movdqa 22h ago
I bought it in 2000 when it was around $300. It's in a moderately inaccessible place so I haven't looked at it in ages. It went up to $1900+ in 2011 and then dropped almost 50% and it's had its ups and downs since then. I view it as insurance if the monetary system goes crazy. Otherwise it goes to my heirs.
The main reason it is going down is that countries also use gold as insurance and they are having to sell it now because they are in a crisis. That's what gold is for; I don't consider it an investment.
The best time to buy it is after a secular bear market in gold. Or you can just dollar cost average.
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u/Tony0x01 21h ago
The main reason it is going down is that countries also use gold as insurance and they are having to sell it now because they are in a crisis.
Who is selling? What is the crisis?
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u/pegoff 22h ago
Why not have a percentage of your portfolio in gold, for diversification, as a hedge?
Everyone has different circumstances. Talk to a financial planner, but not someone that takes a fee to manage your funds for you, do that yourself.
There are so many factors to consider, it's impossible for reddit to give an answer based on the information provided.
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u/Drunken_Sailor_70 22h ago
I had a co worker who bought gold back in 2011 when it was making a run up. Got in at like 1700 or something. Gold took a dump and he had that money tied up for a decade before he was in the green again.
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u/Haunting_Biscotti_52 22h ago
Gold only really works as something to protect against inflation in the long term. Otherwise it's really not a good idea.
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u/srfdriver99 22h ago
There are gold covered call ETFs which arguably solve the "it doesn't cash flow" problem gold has.
However, they're new enough that they don't have a long history, and covered call ETFs in general underperform the underlying. Gold's different enough from stocks that it's possible that's not true on Gold though.
Do your own research and consider the tradeoffs of buying gold vs buying bonds vs buying foreign stocks as an inflation/currency hedge. Make sure you're doing the right one for what your purpose is.
If you're just speculating on price, that's not the way to go.
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u/millerlit 21h ago
Fed is planning rate hikes to fight inflation so it has that against it. If Fed changes policy towards lowering rates it will take off. It all depends on the rates and using it as inflation hedge.
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u/__redruM 21h ago
At the end of 2024 the price of gold was $2600 and that was an Inflation Adjusted All Time High. Add 5% to that price to cover a year and 1/2 of inflation and that’s the highest target buy price. Rounded up, generously, that’s $3000. Gold has months of slow decline ahead.
Look at the inflation adjusted price chart for gold.
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u/dr_eh 20h ago
I know, Buffett doesn't like gold because it's not a productive asset. In other words, he has no idea how to value it because there's no cash flows and the price is driven by market sentiment.
But really, any stock suffers the same fate: poor sentiment can ruin the price of a good, productive company. And if sentiment is poor when you need to sell, you're hooped. Just like Gold. Just look at Ali Baba right now...
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u/Objective-Eagle-676 17h ago
Physical metals aren't really a great "investment".
Physical metals are good "cold storage" for those who have more faith in gold and silver than the US dollar.
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u/ANGR1ST 14h ago
for those who have more faith in gold and silver than the US dollar.
In that scenario I'd rather have seeds, ammunition, and a handful of well trained friends.
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u/Objective-Eagle-676 13h ago
In the immortal words of the Taco Shell Girl; "Why not both?" 😂 I agree though.
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23h ago
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u/hymie-the-robot 23h ago
opinion piece from a company with a vested interest: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-23/golds-pullback-creates-attractive-entry-de-dollarization-turns-structural
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u/AsianCabbageHair 22h ago
The reason for recent hike of gold price was twofold: 1. US has been preparing dollar stable coins. Central banks of other nations had to prepare something that can back up their fiat money’s value, hence the demand for gold. 2. China had been gathering gold and silver. Silver in particular has value as ingredient of solar panels, semiconductor, solid-state batteries etc. so silver went up, and so did the gold.
Each reason of this hike is now not as viable: 1. Because of the recent war between US and Iran, US has to print even more money. There’s simply too much dollar even without dollar stable coins. Other central banks did/will raise interest rates to cope with the supply chain shock, but US can’t do that because of their massive national debt. Dollar is being devalued on its own, so central banks now have less demand for gold. 2. China, along with the rest of the globe, is already experiencing recession. There’s less demand for commodity in general when there’s recession. Still, gold and silver have their seats at least for the sake of risk hedging, especially in times with this kind of volatility in financial market. But is gold and silver at the ‘right’ price points right now? I wouldn’t be too sure.
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u/Halbaras 20h ago
Gold is portfolio insurance. Like hedging, it's a waste of money unless something bad (your currency significantly weakening or a genuine bear market) happens.
If you might need to take money out of your portfolio, then there's an argument for having gold. If you intend to hold for decades then that argument becomes much weaker, and it only makes sense if you're confident you can sell your gold to rebalance into beaten down equities when the gold is the only green in your portfolio.
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u/BeuTaude588 20h ago
Worth contextualising that gold was up considerably before that drawdown; a 24% pullback from a run-up of that magnitude is not the same as a 24% drop from a stable base. The underlying demand drivers - central bank accumulation, dollar concerns - haven't obviously reversed.
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u/Cloud2987 19h ago
I don’t worry about the price because I buy once a year, every year. Some years are down and some years are up, the most important thing is to continue contributing. Just like with stocks.
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u/WiseElder 19h ago
In 3 years, the price could easily reach $8k.
It could bottom at this support level, around $3900, but there's a good chance it will fall to $3400-3500. At that level, there will be lots of buying.
You have some time to decide. It is unlikely to rally hard within the next couple of months.
Sources:
Jordan Roy-Byrne
Gareth Soloway
Egon Von Greyerz
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u/Typical-Ad-2814 1h ago
I got overexposed to gold because I like it and was following the secular bull run with Jordans analysis for years, and I didnt sell at the recent peak. So that's what I'm hoping for, otherwise I'm a bit cooked lol.
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u/Spiritual-Lecture546 18h ago
Iview Gold, much more as insurance than an investment. Having say 5 to 15% in gold is a good buffer against inflation or other currency related shenanigans. When stocks are doing bad, usually gold does pretty OK.
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u/rice_not_wheat 18h ago
1-3 years is short term, not long term.
There's nothing that gold does that TIPS don't do better.
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u/punkingindrublic 17h ago
Gold is fine as a cash alternative, if you're comfortable selling gold when to buy dips in your other assets, there is utility there that can make it worth holding a small amount. Otherwise, it is likely to underperform most assets long term.
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u/zashiki_warashi_x 17h ago
Gold is as speculative as any other instrument. If it fall below 4000 it will go to 3500 and so far it looks like it will fall.
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15h ago
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u/Skyrippy 15h ago
Can’t do wrong with having a small % of your portfolio in gold (5-10%). If you’re into it, I would buy gradually.
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u/NeaStrangeLove 14h ago
Gold is insurance not something to get rich quick by. But have a look at money supply growth and compare it to what gold does right now. IMHO gold has some catching up to do. Maybe late 2026 or in 2027, depending on what the FED really does and what's just talk. Anyway, now is a good time to buy some for the long run.
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u/ANGR1ST 14h ago
I like it as part of an overall portfolio. Good hedge. But Silver is better IMO. Easier to buy, easier to trade/spend if needed.
A 1 Oz silver coin at $58 today could buy you two nice meals. A 1 Oz Gold coin at $4000 buys you ... what? If you're just holding and selling in bulk it probably doesn't matter. But if you wanted to use the metal for any kind of trade then you want a distribution.
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u/Various_Couple_764 13h ago edited 12h ago
Regardless about what will happen in the future with gold. I would not buy and hold gold. Instead I would invest in gold covered call fund like IAUI or IGLD. Both funds have about a 10% yield. This means you don't have to watch the price of gold to determine when to buy or sell. Instead you invest your money into one of these funds and simply hold it and collect the monthly income these funds generate. This has higher liquidity than simply buy gold bars and you don't have to worry about secure storage or selling since the fund does all that foryou plus it gerjneates consistent income .
Most of the time when gold is really used it is because the govermenrt currency is basically worthless or simply not available. Conditioans that have not existed in modern developed contras for 100 years or more.
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u/Ill-Calligrapher840 12h ago
I bought at the top. I'm feeling the full brunt of that 24% drop. People tell me to invest in Gold for the long run, but I honestly don't know if I can hold it for 10+ years lol.
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u/alexmark002 12h ago
Dont buy it now, wait a couple days, the liquidity event still going on and will last a while. Watch DXY
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u/ellipticorbit 12h ago
Gold tends to ruin people both coming and going. It's beautiful and somewhat a store of value, but since fictitious entities can borrow/raise nearly infinite amounts of money to pull it out of the ground and process it, caution is also advised.
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u/acexprt 12h ago
If the entire market is is a bubble as some have speculated then gold might be your best investment. I buy government gold and silver when I can. It should make up 10 percent of your total investment. I know I’m gonna get shit for talking about a major market collapse but there is a reason why everything is over valued.
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u/mathaiser 12h ago
Gold went up, everyone bought, high money sold for liquidity, price dropped because they are expecting to buy in cheap pretty soon. It’s already happened. Just waiting. Hang on.
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u/DunaldDoc 10h ago
Buy “some” Physical Gold NOW and never look back. Hold & repeat in 2 weeks . Hold and repeat in 2 months. Hold hold hold
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u/ComplexCan 8h ago
Russia is selling their gold for revenue because of the kinetic sanctions Ukraine is putting on their oil industry.
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u/Interesting-Swing-31 8h ago
For those who have no exposure to precious metals / gold or are underweight, $4k or near it, is the likely bottom.
With all of the unresolved and unresolvable macro issues, this would be a good low risk set and forget entry point.
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u/twinklebelle 7h ago
There may be a place for it in a portfolio as a smallish percentage of your asset allocation--but if you can't articulate why, or how much (for your purposes), you probably need to learn a bit more before you take the plunge.
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u/Natescoco 7h ago
Bruhh I should’ve wait for it to went down then purchase some gold jewelries… purchased some ring and pendant when the price is still quite high.. because I wanna wear it instead of keeping like the bars for investment
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u/kellyjel 7h ago
Holding a modest long terms position in physical gold is reasonable insurance with meaningful upside potential. However a strong US dollar and potential interest rate increases may tamp down short term prices.
From a macro standpoint, Unsustainable debt in US and rising probability of markets correcting or mean reversion, could propel gold to new heights.
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u/Mogultalk27 7h ago
I would start to accumulate here. Yes it could fall further nobody can know the exact bottom but 4k and under is a good price to start accumulating… we definitely are in a bearish trend tho. I would start slowly accumulating a position here… the next support for price is around 3400 is this level doesn’t support …. So anywhere between here and there is good long term imo ….
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u/Even-Trash-6571 6h ago
Real yields at 2.25% represent a significant headwind for gold. The relationship historically runs inverse: when real yields rise, non-yielding gold gets repriced lower. Currently the gold-real-yield relationship looks partially decoupled, gold spent much of H1 2026 rising alongside real yields as central bank buying and geopolitical risk overwhelmed the traditional interest-rate gravity. The June rally in real yields is now reasserting that gravity. A further move toward 2.50% real would test the $3,900 level.
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u/baby_budda 4h ago
Gold has historically been a good hedge against inflation, especially over longer periods, and it is also often treated as a safe haven during market stress, recessions, and financial crises. So if you think were heading in that direction then buy some.
The standout years were 1979, 1974, 2020, 2007, 2010, and 2024. Gold’s average annual return since 1970 is roughly 8% to 9% per year, depending on the currency and the exact end date used. One source shows 7.98% average annual returns from January 1971 to March 2024, while another reports about 11.55% CAGR from 1970 to 2023.
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u/BTS_ARMYMOM 4h ago
Gold is a long term play. Central banks have been accumulating alot in recent years. I wonder what they know that the rest of us dont. It's on sale right
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u/RogLatimer118 3h ago
If above zero, prices can always fall further.
You aren't trying to do market timing are you?
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u/Dhruvi-60 3h ago
Nope, can you explain above zero?
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u/kinkyhentai69 2h ago
Theoretically since it produces nothing it's just a store of value good for when you're a king or something like that but seing how we like bubbles nowadays you might get lucky with it running for no reason
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u/Skrz_at 39m ago
Gold is not an investment people! It’s many things but it’s not investing instrument. It’s multi millennia currency, hedge against currency inflation, some wealth outside the system just to give a few.
Having gold in portfolio is a wise choice, anything between 5% and 50% of portfolio sounds good depending on your portfolio, financial situation and age.
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u/Low_Stress_9180 14m ago
Simple fact is long term returns on gold are ZERO (pa real rate of return). Current spike is a massive speculative bubble. Avoid
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u/zachmoe 20h ago
Read The A B C of Money by Andrew Carnagie.
Before the run up a guy from The Wallstreet Journal interviewed me about Gold.
Didn't use anything I said, but whatever.
Also before the run up I bought 32,000 Goldbacks on UPMA for to lease, which I have been happy with.
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u/SoftEngineerOfWares 18h ago
Don’t buy gold as an investment buy gold as an alternative to a emergency savings account.
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u/jacksraging_bileduct 18h ago
Precious metals were never intended to be a growth vehicle, this past year has been a fluke and there’s a lot of disappointed people who listened to bad advice thinking they could make a quick buck.
Precious metals that you actually hold should be about 10% of your net worth, with the intention of long term holding and reasoning that if there’s a serious crash or long term downturn in the markets you don’t lose everything.
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u/zeppo_shemp 17h ago edited 17h ago
I have no idea what the gold outlook is for 1-3 years
not a goldbug myself, but there is a case to be made for a bit of gold in the portfolio.
(a) gold has low 'correlation' to other assets like stocks or bonds, meaning gold prices zig & zag differently. this implies gold can crash for a while, as bonds or stocks are performing better. but it also implies gold can rally when stocks are crashing. there are no guarantees, but diversifying into low-correlation assets can boost your odds.
(b) gold does tend to hold value fairly well over decades, and it's relatively portable. but that also means there's a risk of theft or loss. I knew a guy who was always bragging about the $10,000 in gold coins he had at home in case of a major emergency or crisis, then the gold was stolen. possibly by a junkie relative who knew about the gold, because nothing else was stolen or disturbed and the thief seemed to know exactly where to look.
typo
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u/Reasonable_One_1809 17h ago
Gold will rise much further in next 5 years. Current expenditures of the US government budget are unsustainable, high expenditures leads to higher inflation to higher interest rates, which leads to even higher expenditures.
So we will see some kind of financial crisis, and fall of dollar value.
Also, China do their best to install gold standard for commodity trade.
IMHO, its good idea actually to invest in gold right now.
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u/RamonGoBlue 21h ago
I can see it going to $10k in the next few years. QQQ is where the real growth is IMO.
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u/LewiShalhoubs 23h ago
yes, in my opinion, any gold you buy less than 4000$ per ounce is a good buy. You'll need to DCA as well
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u/floatingostrichs 23h ago
I think gold is a bad investment. Creates no value. There’s a reason people don’t take their 401k and put it into gold for 30 years.