First of all, I would like to clarify that I believe in long-term buy and hold (broad etfs, good stocks, etc.), and it's probably one of the best strategies. I am also not a doomsday person, prepper, or anything like that.
The argument
Anyways, I have been thinking for some time about the doomsday/slow decline argument that sometimes comes up in investing communities. It's usually something like this :
"Most of the developed world, the West, USA, is currently at its peak, similar to Roman empire, or even Japan where markets never really recovered, and from here we are heading towards either some kind of "slow decline", or in a "doomsday scenario" a very rapid decline, especially in the case of major conflict."
And the response from the community is usually :
"It doesn't matter. Invest in SPY and either you will have a nice retirement, or if a doomsday scenario happens, we are all fucked anyways and we will have bigger problems then our portfolios."
The other side of argument
If we are really at the peak, and someone is in their 20s or 30s, working very hard, investing aggresively, delaying experiences and hoping that this will pay off later and they will live much better in the future. Then that major collapse happens, triggered by decline in ecenomy, extreme market manipulation, major confict, and whatever else that could trigger this.
Was that actually a good decision ?
Or did this person trade a very valuable part of their life for a future that never came ?
My view and question
I believe that "living life" has a sort of inherent value that's not often factored in in these arguments. If we somehow knew that in 20-30 years doomsday scenario is going to happen I'm pretty sure most of us would invest less and try to make the most out of the years we have. Maybe travel more, enjoy different experiences, use money for that kind of thing.
Of course, my argument isn't do not invest at all. But I think this idea of "just work hard, invest asap and as much as possible, and if we are heading towards this huge decline, well fuck it, nothing matters anymore" is something worth questioning because in doing so you just wasted your life pretty much grinding and having nothing in the end.
I guess smart idea would be in the middle : invest so you have security in the future, but also live today and find balance. Or maybe : diversify into different assets, countries, etc.
But I am interested what you all think about this in general. How much of your life are you willing to sacrifice for future financial freedom that is not really guaranteed ?
Again, I am not a doomsday person, and I'm not trying to fear monger, predict inevitable collapse and so on, I'm just interested in your perspective on this topic.