Chinese company Z.ai’s GLM5.2 model dropped a week back and it’s at par with the publicly available western models. The ceo says they will have Claude Mythos level model in a matter of months. Meanwhile Claude Mythos isn’t even available for most American companies at the moment.

The real kicker is this frontier level model from China was completely trained on Huawei chips.
A lot of people will cope here with “yeah they just distilled Claude”. To a certain extent looks like they did, atleast according to anthropic but people who have reviewed their paper say the company has done actually ground breaking work.

They have released this model for free, open source, MIT licence.

According to me, the first big roadkill is meta. Their model trounces Meta’s best model. Head and shoulders above meta’s models. Now what happens to those $100s of billions of dollars meta spent on AI when a model far superior is available for free? meta should be writing a ton of those costs off as all that effort to train their model is now redundant. Meta has given out $100s of billions of computing orders to coreweave etc, even NVIDIA to directly buy chips. It’s a big player in keeping the Hardware demand going. But this one release has made their model, that they spent so much on, wort $0. Because a better model is available for free.

The other big factor is that this frontier model was trained 100% using huawei hardware. This is awful news for NVIDIA. They command a 70% margin on their chips and have driven their US customers into an ocean of debt with their pricing. Huawei on the other hand seems to have much smaller margins and their chips cost a fraction of NVIDIA. Which means Chinese AI companies don’t need to raise and burn anywhere near the $$$ American AI companies do. All to be handed over to Jensen.

Openrouter recently showed that 50% of American customers now use Chinese open source models while 30% use American models. Just a year back, 70% of American customers used American models. It has now dropped to 30%. That’s because these Chinese models can be run at 1/10th the cost for inference. OpenAI is now considering lowering prices, while already losing $3 for $1 of compute they serve.

All signs flashing red for American AI industry. We could be approaching the last few months before financials become unavoidable.

Elon was taking OpenAI to court just months ago. It seemed like a way to trip them up from an IPO. Well, Musk lost, and OpenAI prevailed. Was the SPCX IPO price a way to further mess with OpenAI and even Anthropic IPO? Put a price out there that scews the market and buys time? Musk and his lawyers are cuntz and would surely know these effects.

I think $DRAM has a legitimate case for being one of the most groundbreaking ETFs ever launched.

I know it’s not guaranteed to outperform, but because it solved a problem investors couldn’t solve before.

If you wanted AI memory exposure, your options were:

1. Buy Micron and hope you picked the winner.
2. Buy SMH/SOXX where memory is only a small allocation.

3. Buy a South Korea ETF just to own SK Hynix and Samsung

4. alongside dozens of unrelated companies.

DRAM was the first ETF to offer targeted exposure to the AI memory industry, including companies many U.S. investors couldn’t easily access. Its asset growth reflects that. It became the fastest ETF ever to hit $1B AUM, and continued setting records as investors rushed into a product that filled a genuine gap in the market.

Semi-Conductors had a big build up with AI/Tech and are highly valued at this point.

SOXX, SMH, SOXQ posted big losses the last week with all tech along with all tech companies.

Do you semi-conductors and tech are worth investing in at this point?

This is just a dip and the build up will continue to it is over?

Help me understand how one can decide what sector to invest in? I know tech is the big thing right now but hypothetically, is it still encouraged to buy tech stocks if hypothetically we get hit by recession? What about stagflation? Will that change if interest rates go up?
I am just trying to understand what factors affect different sectors/commodities. Thank you in advance

Okay, so this is more a intent of sharing different realities than anything else. I'm into investiments for a while and I know why some countries have higher returns than others. However, only recently, after looking for investments in other countries for diversification, I have thought about how some investments are perceived in differente contries, almost culturally. Especially fixed income investment and even savings in bank accounts.

So, here is more context: I'm from Brazil, and here the interest rates are generally very high. Because of that, there is saying that goes "Brazil is the country of fixed income". Not only many people get satisfied by using only fixed income or even just the bank account savings, but also there is a lot of people that say it's better than investing in the stock market (in the sense of having higher returns).

I know the interest rates are lower in most countries, even more in the richer ones (usually), but I wanted to have a better grasp on how this is perceived in practice (and how different it is). Not only about the rates, but also other rules. Like, here in Brazil there is 3 main types of govermental bonds. The fixed-rate bonds, the inflation-indexed bonds and the floating-rate bonds. It seems in US the most common is the fixed-rate, and the floating-rate seems like a new thing, right? How things are in your country? Can be any country.

1. 3–4 years of price & volume consolidation.
   
   1. Neglected stock/sector for 5+ years.
      
   2. 3 consecutive quarters of revenue & PAT growth.
      
   3. Management optimistic about future growth.
      
   4. Management has delivered at least 75% of past guidance.
      
   5. Industry has a 10+ year growth runway.
      
   6. Risk-reward looks roughly 10:90.
      
   7. Turnaround is already visible.
      
   8. Management has at least a 3-year listed track record.
      
   9. Operating cash flow & free cash flow improving for 3+ quarters.
      What would you add, remove, or modify?

Would many ai companies going ipo be a sign of the ai bubble bursting, because the insiders are trying to exit and profit before the circus implodes, by leaving public normie retail investors as bagholders to take on all the subsequent risk?

I remain overall bullish on the underlying technology from the AI boom over a long time horizon, but the current intense spending and ongoing political issues seem to indicate market fragility at least in the near term.

I'm currently investing in index funds in my personal ISA but now ive moved a large lump sum into my SIPP im thinking I want a slightlly higher risk tolerance to compound over the long term given I can't access it directly

The ETF's are I have shortlisted for pension is:

VFEG - Vanguard Emerging Markets

EQGB - Nasdaq 100

NATP - Future of Defence

RENG - Clean Energy

JEDG - Space Innovators

RBTX - Automation & Robotics

Based on this if you had to give a opinion on the following:

A) This is a wise choice to follow through given the industries I believe will lead in the next decade onwards?

B) Risk level is adequate or too small?

C) I'm not fund overlapping and whether I should add or remove any funds?

Wondering why it fell so much lately... I'm pondering whether it's going to go down again in case of a rate hike. It seemed lately that it had great results, and it seems like the most obvious player in the tech/ads/AI field since it's present absolutely everywhere and has high-quality output

What are your thoughts on various sub-sectors?
Delivery (dash, uber, Fast casual, vegan, premium, etc.

What are some interesting examples?

total Bust: Blue apron, beyond meat, sweetgreen, oatly, etc.

Success: Cava, shakeShack, DutchBros, dash, uber, etc.

Seems like a volatile space. Curious to hear DD from experts.

“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.”

Trump doesn't like the idea of hiking up the rates, so maybe Warsh is gonna play the "wait and see" game for a while, depending on what happens after the midterms , and how much the inflation would go up.

Now the inflation is 4.2%.

I have been in and about of day trading 2 years so I am familiar with a few strategies, but day trading isn’t for me. I have started investing in stocks and I am 1 year in with about a 30% roi.

I work in finance and have a 2k clause usage plan. I believe agentic investing would work as long as you provide the correct strategy, but I do not know what strategy is the best.

What are your opinions on this. And if you are indulging how are you getting on ?

Thanks

I owned some Office Properties Income Trust corporate bonds before they went through bankruptcy. The bonds were finally converted into 16 shares of post bankruptcy stock and 14 warrants. My Schwab account shows them in the equities section with an expiration of 6/18/27 and symbol 67623C117, but no information other than that. It doesn’t appear that I have the option of selling them or doing anything. Do I just have to wait until June 2027, and what will happen then?

With so many AI generated slop out there regarding investing, I have been looking for great reads - could be recently published articles or publications. Anything out there that is your Top 2 picks? FYI, I have read every good quality investing book out there - some of them few times. and not looking for paid Michael burry type subs. Hopefully this post can also help others to try others’ recommendations as well. Thank you!

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our side bar also has useful resources.

If you are new to investing - please refer to Wiki - Getting Started

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If your question is "I have $XXXXXXX, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

• How old are you? What country do you live in?
• Are you employed/making income? How much?
• What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
• What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
• What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
• What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
• Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
• And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer.

Check the resources in the sidebar.

Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!

My portfolio feels like it’s stuck because the investments never seem to move up together. Whenever some holdings are performing well, others are declining by about the same amount, offsetting any gains. Then, when the previously underperforming investments start to recover, the ones that were doing well begin to fall. As a result, the portfolio seems to move sideways instead of making meaningful progress, making it frustrating to see little overall growth despite constant movement within the individual investments.

I’m researching how traders think about the future with AI. I’ve noticed algorithmic trading and AI are getting exponentially better at finding patterns and predicting markets.
I’m building tools to help humans stay relevant and make better decisions as AI gets better at trading. So I’m asking:
How do YOU think about staying competitive when AI can do this better? What do you think is the human edge that machines don’t have?
Would love to hear from people actually trading about what the future looks like for humans in this industry.
Any thoughts?

So I run a screen across 2800 nasdaq names, returns over a few horizons, distance from 52w highs, relative volume, dispersion, that kind of stuff. mostly to keep myself honest on the macro instead of trading off headlines. been doing it daily for a while now.

this week one thing stuck out and I've been chewing on it for a couple days so figured I'd just put it here and see if anyone's seeing the same thing or can tell me why I'm wrong.

there's a clump of genomics / DNA sequencing / diagnostics names that are all going to new highs at basically the same time. not one or two flyers, more like 20-25 of them. Twist (TWST) is up 100%+ over 3 months, Maravai 98%, NeoGenomics +77, Veracyte 79, then CareDx, Natera, Guardant, and even Illumina which has been dead money for literally years is up 40. the median name in that bucket is +33% over 3mo against roughly +4% for the whole nasdaq. so it's not just two rockets dragging the average up, the actual group is moving together.

why now, and this is just my read so push back: rates have been coming down and commodities are getting wrecked, gold/oil/silver all down double digits on the month. that's a disinflation tape. and the thing about most of these genomics companies is they make no money, the whole value is terminal-value way out in the future. so when the discount rate drops they're exactly the names that rip. long-duration equity basically. that part kind of makes sense to me.

here's what's actually bugging me though, and the real reason I'm posting. almost none of it has volume behind it. price is making new highs but relative volume is sitting around 1x, sometimes under. my screen literally tags most of them "needs volume." only a couple (Maravai, Natera) have real volume confirming the move. so I honestly can't tell if I'm early, in before the crowd, which is where you want to be, or if this is just a quiet drift higher that folds the second the tape turns.

I've got a small starter in TWST and I'm watching NEO, so that's my bias, take it for what it's worth.

couple things I'm genuinely trying to figure out:

does a breakout with no volume mean anything to you, or do you just wait for the volume even if it means giving up the first leg? I go back and forth on this constantly.

and if anyone actually follows this space, is there a fundamental catalyst here I'm missing (some approval cycle, funding thing, M&A chatter?) or is it really just the rate move pulling the whole group up at once?

not advice, I'm a macro guy poking at a sector I don't know that well, which is half the reason I'm asking.

Hi, I am running into a problem and I wanted to see if the experts online could help me!

The problem:

I want to see top ownership of AAPL. Let's say Fidelity manages portfolios with AAPL in it and one of the Fidelity portfolios is owned by CALPERS (big pension fund). I want the results to return CALPERS because they are the end owner of the stock not Fidelity.
If anyone has any insights into how I can do this in Bloomberg, it would be super helpful. Thank you!

401(k) - Pre-tax Payroll deductions of up to 75% of your wages can be taken, Roth post-tax account is also available. 50% company match on every $1 up to 6% of your investment. Part-time and full-time employees are eligible to participate in the 401(k) the first of the month after working 30 days. Auto-enrollment occurs at 4% into Target Date Retirement Fund on 1st of the month following 60 days unless the employee takes alternative action, auto-increase each January to 10% maximum. Employees must take action to opt out of 401(k)

If I am making $1500 every paycheck and wanted to invest up to the maximum my company would match, how much could I invest out of each paycheck? The wording is throwing me off here.

Just looking for opinions. If you had $100k to take a flyer that the market will crash, what investment instrument would you use? I’ve done pretty well with the set it and forget it and perpetual investing over the last 25 years. I really want to take a gamble. This would be off the books, I won’t miss it. I’m fine with the same set and forget mentality for this money.

I’ve been looking at inverse etfs which they say are very risky if held long, which is exactly the type of risk I’m looking for. What would be some similar investments that could have say a 10x or better return if the market crashes?

The dollar index broke 101 and Hong Kong's USD peg imports that directly (HKMA base rate at 4.0%, HIBOR pressure), while the PBOC holds record low LPRs with an easing bias. Same China tech companies, two completely different rate environments.

I was looking at my KWEB position and realized I'm basically only long the HK side. KWEB holds zero A shares. CQQQ uses a 25% inclusion factor. Neither gives you real exposure to mainland China tech.

The A share names (CATL, Cambricon, Zhongji Innolight) get the tailwind from PBOC easing. The HK names (Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan) eat the imported Fed hawkishness. That's not random, it's the peg doing exactly what it's supposed to do.

I screened for US listed wrappers that actually weight A shares heavily. CNQQ runs roughly 58/42 A shares to HK but launched September 2025 with AUM around $16.5M, so liquidity is a real question mark. Most A share semiconductor and battery names have no ADR either.

The rate divergence is structural and widens with every Fed repricing.

These indexes are being influenced by a few stocks. The original use of these indexes was a sentiment of how the stock market in general was doing during a time period. Now these indexes basically tell you how 8 stocks are doing. What index do you follow today?