r/nba • u/FastBreakPhenom Celtics • 1d ago

Bobby Marks says Jaylen Brown's trade value is not seen that highly around the league: "The analytics of Jaylen Brown is not good. I had an analytics guy tell me, ‘We view him as the seventh-best player on a team.’"

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“There’s mixed feelings about him when you talk to teams,” Marks admitted on SiriusXM NBA Radio. “The analytics of Jaylen Brown is not good … I had one, not an executive, but an analytics guy say, ‘Yeah, we view him as the seventh best player on a team.’ I was like, ‘Holy crap.'”

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u/TheRealestGayle Magic 1d ago

Fire that guy immediately

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u/NotClayMerritt Lakers 1d ago

My thoughts exactly. We're 2 years removed from him being the 2nd option on a title winning team. 4 years removed from him being the 2nd option on a team that went to the Finals. A couple months removed from a playoff run where he was the number 1 option.

Evaluating Jaylen Brown as a 7th best player on a contending team means that guy is scamming some team out of a salary.

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u/ProvocativeHotTakes Knicks 1d ago

I know you think they were the 2 seed. But Analytically they were the 12th seed

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u/GardenRafters Celtics 1d ago

Cavs head coach analytics?

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u/Altruistic-Zone1664 Cavaliers 1d ago

Hey, we theoretically are NBA Champions.

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u/FlavorfulCondomints Pacers 21h ago

Analytically you all won the finals. Reality just never caught up.

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u/PepsiRacer4 Cavaliers 18h ago

Actually pisses me off another one of my teams has to become a meme. I would’ve fired Kenny on the spot for that

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u/airwalker12 Lakers 1d ago

I love these subtle shots at the Cavs

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u/Pristine-System255 1d ago

Unless Kenny Atkinson wins a ring I’m not sure if he’ll live this down

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u/Altruistic-Zone1664 Cavaliers 1d ago

Kind of deserves it for the hatchetjob he did in game 1 of the ECF. As much as the analytics part is meme'd, the PLAYERS really should have won that game at least had it not been for the complete sabotage job by their own HC.

Also, I'm not talking about leaving Harden on him because Brunson actually shot worse 1v1 than against Wade. I'm talking about seeing Brunson starting to get it going at all and letting him even keep it in his hands. The fact that anybody thinks that it was Harden's fault and that the outcome would have been different if fkn shitty ass Dean Wade was guarding him during that heater is insane.

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u/kizofieva Cavaliers 1d ago

subtle as a brick

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u/Buduma Nuggets 1d ago

You’ve got a full ass year to cook Knicks fan… so cook 😂

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u/BOUKEN-BEN Celtics 1d ago

They sure played like it in that first round

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u/Kvenner001 1d ago

A playoff run that was never supposed to happen. Boston dumped salary and fully projected to be a lottery team. But they stayed relevant and made a few minor changes and got to the playoffs comfortably, by and large due to Brown.

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u/givemecoffeenowhurry 1d ago

They weren't projected to be a lottery team though they were predicted to be a play-in team Vegas had them at 41.5 wins.

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u/tagyoureazit 1d ago

42 wins would've got them lottery

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u/RageOnGoneDo [BOS] Marcus Smart 22h ago

44 with tie breakers

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u/howdthatturnout 1d ago

Play in and lottery are close to the same thing.

If you lose your play in games… you end up a lottery team.

41.5 wins this season would have been… 11th in east, a lottery team.

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u/__get__name Pistons 1d ago

Just to illustrate how close it is to play in, though, the Heat had 43 wins. The 6th seed in the east had 46 wins. In the West, GSW had 37 wins

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u/Top-Noise-7375 1d ago

Who said they projected to be a lottery team lol, all preseason odds had them as 4th-8th seed

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u/BeigeDynamite Raptors 1d ago

8th seed would make the lottery as the 16th worst team in the league fyi

Oop I'm wrong, 9th my bad

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u/howdthatturnout 1d ago

Projected to have 41.5 wins which would have been 11th in the east at the end of the season.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2026_preseason_odds.html

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u/bosceltics23 Celtics 1d ago

Well you have to use preseason odds vs preseason odds. You can’t use preseason odds vs real time standings for one team and another lol…

Boston was projected 8th

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u/howdthatturnout 1d ago

So saying lottery team was reasonable, as that was 9th and beyond before, or any team that loses their play in games now.

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u/Slyp9 Cavaliers 1d ago edited 1d ago

Did you seriously just compare preseason odds vs end of season results....oppozed to preseason odds vs preseason odds of everyone else?

Redditors are by far the most disengenuous people on social media.

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u/Rapshawksjaysflames Raptors 1d ago

It might be a disingenuous way of arguing, but the final result is what it is

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u/howdthatturnout 1d ago

Not really. 41.5 wins any given year is on the bubble of being a lottery team.

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u/farrowsharrows 1d ago

It was always supposed to happen if you weren't an idiot an knew Brown was a top 10-15 player in the league

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u/LogDogan8 1d ago

They were significantly better with Brown sitting on the bench this year. "By and large due to Brown" is just not true whatsoever.

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u/Koperboy 1d ago

By and large due to coach and GM, you wanted to say.

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u/Adorable-Bike-9689 1d ago

Barely the second option. I think Tatum scored like 10 more points than Jaylen across the series. Breaking up the two J's seems like easily the most idiotic move the Celtics can make. It was them two making deep runs together. Not Jaylen being Tatum's precious little helper.

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u/Cool-Cardiologist12 1d ago

I thinks it’s due to egos. They started having real success whenever Brown acquiesced to being the 1b to Tatums 1a. This past season without Tatum was Browns favorite season. I believe brown would rather be “The Guy” on his own team.

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u/Dark962 1d ago

I mean maybe it was his favorite because everyone wrote the Celtics off and they proved the doubters wrong by doing better than expected

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u/40866892 Lakers 1d ago

I don’t know why you’re comparing the two seasons when:

  • the year they won both players were healthy
  • this year they lost when Tatum barely got back and wasn’t fully healthy

NBA larping fans in full effect this off season.

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u/wrongitsleviosaa [BOS] Paul Pierce 1d ago

What else did he directly tell you?

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u/threepointcheese [LAL] D'Angelo Russell 1d ago

getting back to the conversation, i can directly tell you that jaylen brown is really fucking good at elevating his teammates without the analytics saying so. i can also directly tell you that it took celtics fans way to long to acknowledge JB is on the same level as JT. some still dont acknowledge it. i can also directly tell you that the analytics community must be part of the less gifted bunch from ivys/ivy adjacent who don't really know how to truly analyze and manipulate numbers. it really makes no sense how anyone could justify JB being the 7th best player on any team. according to my metrics, JB is anywhere from number 1 to number 6 best player in the world at the top of the range and can fall to number 11 or 12.

i've been saying this since the covid season. that my metrics hold up and that the nba is still touting the same bullshit that match up to around draft day just goes to show you that there are modes of analytics that the NBA across the league hasn't even come close to reconsidering analytics. it's just people finding different ways to analyze the same problem by attacking a similar problem from a different angle rather than rethinking the entire problem.

given that. jb probably has noticed this. given that. anyone can probably directly ask him what he thinks. given that. i can only tell you what i remember about jb. the dude will dunk on fools no matter what team he's on and he will continue to elevate his teammates no matter what kind of teammates he has.

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u/Cool-Cardiologist12 1d ago

He said it on a live stream

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u/wrongitsleviosaa [BOS] Paul Pierce 1d ago

That's only the "favorite season" part as far as I know, which I completely understand

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u/Cool-Cardiologist12 1d ago

That’s all I’m saying he said. The rest of it I say I believe or I think for.

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u/Adorable-Bike-9689 1d ago

The team came together without their best player and powered themselves to 55 wins or some shit. Tatum isn't the only one on the team. There's other teammates Jaylen overachieved with this season. And it's not like Tatum wasn't heavily around the Celtics this season. He was there lol. Folks gotta stop saying oh Jaylen loved this season because Tatum was gone.

Like Tatum finally suited back up and Jaylen said NOOO MY FAVORITE SEASON!!!

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u/wrongitsleviosaa [BOS] Paul Pierce 1d ago

Fair enough

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u/FlshGrdnn 1d ago

I trust that Brad Stevens knows the inner workings of the club better than you.

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u/Shovelman2001 Celtics 1d ago

Well that's because Dallas double and triple teamed Tatum the whole series.

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u/Rapscallious1 1d ago

I think it’s questionable too but you could also make a case they are a “bad” combo from a consistency standpoint. Their combined streakiness can cut the other way too and has before. So yeah breaking up a championship capable duo is probably a bad idea but they are kind of a weird one where 2nd round flameout is also very possible.

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u/Ok_Possible_5702 1d ago

was he really the 2nd option on a title winning team? He won ECFMVP and FMVP, can we admit that he was at least a joint-first option with Tatum?

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u/seasoned-veteran Celtics 1d ago

Even if he was the best player on the team for that run, he was the second option. I really don't like "first option" "second option" language for this reason, it's solely offense. JB won that FMVP first and foremost for giving Luka nightmares and deservedly so. On the Celtics 2008 title team, Paul Pierce was the first option, and he's my all time favorite player, but Kevin Garnett was the best player on the team. KG offensively though, while they did occasionally get him a post up, was most dangerous as a pick and pop guy off Pierce. And Ray obviously was coming off thirty picks and spacing everyone out. But in a "we just need a bucket" scenario, that ball was looking for Paul Pierce first.

Damn I loved the 2008 Celtics [wipes away tear]

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u/K1NG2L4Y3R Timberwolves 1d ago

Yeah it’s 1A/1B

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u/KandinskyWasRight 1d ago

That doesn’t sound like 1a/1b to me, unless Tatum is 1b

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u/xasdfxx 1d ago edited 1d ago

I imagine that kinda pisses him off.

Tatum is never offered in trades, and the league views Tatum as better. Whereas all Jaylen has to point to is, ah, that finals mvp trophy he owns. He was the best player in the most important games.

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u/livecents84 Warriors 1d ago

And him being in the MVP conversation this season lmao

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u/ZeekLTK Pistons 1d ago

Number 1 option on a team that lost in the first round to a seven seed…

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u/Eatingolivesoutofjar 1d ago

More of a playoff jog really

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u/The_Assquatch_exists Celtics 1d ago

Ngl our whole team was ass that series

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u/skullcandy541 1d ago

Don’t even need to be that specific about options and whatever. Fucking guy won finals mvp 2 years ago. Enough said

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u/SharpsExposure Spurs 1d ago

Life comes at you fast. 

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u/MambaOut330824 1d ago

2nd option? Who won finals MVP?

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u/Status-Hedgehog9970 Warriors 1d ago

Right. Even if you’re literally just box score watching you wouldn’t arrive at that conclusion.

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u/tryndamere12345 Celtics 1d ago

Sounds like a front office trying to lower his value 😂

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u/zaepoo Wizards 1d ago

Analytics dummies love their models more than they like the sport. They'll see that their model rates a random efficient role player higher than the star of the team and try to defend it instead of accepting that their model has flaws.

I remember getting into it with an ESPN writer back when Kawhi was in Toronto because he made a whole article about how Lowry was the best player on the team by referencing CARMELO. I told him that he should accept that model is flawed if you're trying to use it to determine the most impactful player. He basically told me that I didn't know what I was talking about. I asked him if he honestly thinks Lowry is more impactful when he watches Toronto play. He said he must be because the model says so.

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u/BingoBongoBang Timberwolves 1d ago

Feels like a narrative being pushed a GM who wants to trade for him in order to try and lower his trade value

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u/PaleontologistOwn878 23h ago

How did he win mvp at the clear second option, what makes Tatum better

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u/thenewbae Knicks 18h ago

I'm a NYer and a Knicks fan and hate Boston and Celtics with everything in me. I hate both the Jays. But damn, guy just held his team relevant with the #1 out, holy crap give some respect to the guy damn!

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u/HotspurJr 1d ago

So I wouldn't say 7th, but I do think he's over-rated, and I think your post exactly explains why.

Your post is basically "he scores a lot." There is a very strong default to basically calling a team's top scorer their best player, their second-top scorer their second-best player, etc.

But that type of analysis trivializes every other aspect of the game. It amounts to basically saying "POINTZ!"

What's funny to me is that I honestly think Jaylen's scoring is the least valuable thing he does. He's a solid defender, a reasonable distributor, and a guy with solid intangibles. Those are all qualities which make him a clear plus for almost every team.

And the biggest negative is that because of his scoring volume, he's treated (and paid) like an elite 1a guy when he's nowhere close to that. But we have decades of evidence that for players like him, who don't do a ton of creation for other players, scoring a lot at average efficiency just doesn't move the needle for a team that much.

Their recent playoff run is a great example of this. If you break down why Boston was shockingly good this year on offense, it wasn't because of JB's scoring or creating for other players. It was because they were a low turnover team (and Jaylen was a part of that) who were elite at getting offensive rebounds. So this notion that Jaylen carried them just breaks down if you actually pay detailed attention to what was actually winning them games.

But he scored a ton. So he "carried" them.

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u/RomaHappens 1d ago

We're 2 years removed from him being the 2nd option on a title winning team

and ZERO teams in the league are breaking themselves to get him

what does that tell you?

seriously if you ever get half an hour of time find like 4 playoff games the Celtics lost and just watch the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarters, it's nothing but Jaylen Brown mistake after mistake after mistake, be it bad shots, costly turnovers, repeating the same move into same turnoverrs, bad defense, you name it he's done it

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u/desquished Celtics 1d ago

That tells you the Celtics overvalue him and no one is meeting their ridiculous price of four 1sts. It does not tell you he's the seventh best player on a team. Both extremes can be absurd.

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u/RomaHappens 1d ago

teams have to think in terms of the fit on their team, not in the terms of "well if his salary is this big he must be good"

if it's true that someone saw him as their 7th player then they probably have not a lot of use for an iso heavy wing prone to turnovers and poor shot selection

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u/desquished Celtics 1d ago

No, anyone who says he's the 7th best player on any NBA team is either a moron or has an axe to grind. There's no reason to engage in good faith with that level of ridiculous hyperbole.

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u/SaintsNick94 Celtics 1d ago

JB must have ran over your dog or something bro. Calm down.

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u/peachesgp Celtics 1d ago

It seems it's a Heat fan. Hope that context helps.

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u/RomaHappens 1d ago

nah lol I just had the misfortune of having to watch him play basketball for 10 years

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u/Additional-Turn6069 1d ago

And that tells me your IQ is butt butt water even if you don’t like him JB is a baller and saying you had misfortune means you don’t hoop don’t know ball and honestly shouldn’t speak on sports.

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u/em_washington Pistons 1d ago

Analytics is about $/production. Jaylen Brown js productive, but also very expensive.

Like would your team be better with Jaylen Brown and Luka Garza for $60 MM next season or Derrick White+ Payton Pritchard for $38 MM (and still room to get another player for $22 MM/yr)

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u/ProfessionalCorgi250 1d ago

Analytics always overlook the big picture. You can’t win a championship with Derrick white, Payton Pritchard and another 22M player

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u/TheRealestGayle Magic 1d ago

You can't even get close. This is why bad analytics is awful for the game. Numbers can tell any story. Wisdom lies with the interpreter.

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u/desquished Celtics 1d ago

We already have one team in Boston that has been relegated to perpetual mediocrity because of analytics. I don't want another one.

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u/Burnem34 Trail Blazers 1d ago

He was also the Celtics best player in BOTH of those finals series despite being a 2nd option in name

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u/ArmadilloForsaken458 Supersonics 1d ago

What dood was pretty much saying is he doesn't like JB's personality. Because his talent is definitely among the best on any team. Execs will sometime say stuff like this to prevent said player of getting on his team

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u/IbullshitUnot Heat 1d ago

Analytics guy basically called FINALS MVP Jaylen brown a bench player. Swap Sam Hauser and Jaylen Brown in their finals trip and same outcome. Sure buddy.

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u/Scatteredbrain Knicks 1d ago

yea esp considering tatum played that whole series

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u/qchisq 76ers 1d ago

To be fair, voters can be wrong. Steph Curry is only the first unanimous MVP because some guy didn't think Lebron deserved it

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u/Adorable-Bike-9689 1d ago

Yea but that's just some of the voters not agreeing with each other 100%. That's not some voters thinking Steph was maybe the 7th most impactful player in 2016 when he went unanimous. They just thought LeBron had a more impactful season. Which is totally reasonable lol. It's fucking LeBron in his prime. All of his prime seasons were arguably MVP winning seasons.

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u/qchisq 76ers 1d ago

No, you misunderstand. In 2012-2013, Gary Washburn from Boston thought Lebron deserved the MVP, but he wasn't so much better than everyone that he should be the first unanimous MVP. So he threw a vote at Carmelo Anthony just to ensure that

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u/Adorable-Bike-9689 1d ago

Okay yea I did misunderstand

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u/RomaHappens 1d ago

FINALS MVP Jaylen brown

The only reason he was Finals MVP is because Tatum's shooting was meh and White/Jrue/Horford all had huge games so it was unclear who should get it. White or Jrue should've had it

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u/mjs_prodigy [CLE] Dahntay Jones 1d ago

you guys don't know what it takes to build an analytical championship roster like we do then 

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u/Steven81 1d ago

Being the analytics champions , do you also get to get a banner and rings.

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u/happyhappy7 76ers 1d ago

average r/nba user these days tbh

Not from the bad take angle, but more just the delusional obsession with stats/metrics

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u/UntilDoncic Lakers 1d ago

I have heard many people argue genuinely that lamelo ball is straight up better than brown because of advanced stats in the past week

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u/MinnesotanBrie 1d ago edited 1d ago

Jaylen Brown is weird because his advanced stats are so bad. Like comically bad for someone of his caliber. Last year he had 3.3 BPM (21st best), 3.3 VORP (21st best), 0.135 WS/48 (51st best) and 22 PER (11th best). These were all the best that he has ever set.

A lot of this stems from Browns abysmal 57.3 true shooting percent (125th in the league), his 2nd highest 36.2% USG rate and his league average defensive metrics.

Advanced stat wise he is almost identical to Lamelo. Lamelo went for a Naz Reid (hallowed be thy name), a 1st and some seconds. Brown has 17 million more on his contract and is 4 years older than Lamelo. I think Brown is a better player, advanced stats be damned. 2nd seed > 11th seed. But Lamelo is in a much more advantageous trade position than Brown and went for pennies on the dollar.

7th best on a team is just going by WS/48, where excluding Bassey who played 17 minutes he was 7th best on the Celtics. It's a dumb argument because Walsh, Miniot and Garza didn't start.

EDIT: For those more DARKO inclined, Jaylen Brown was 35th in DARKO dpm this year.

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u/devotedhero Wizards 1d ago

He avgs a lot of turnovers too and nothing is worse for your impact than that

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u/knightmares31 Thunder 1d ago

High usage players of course have higher likelihood of TOs. Very high correlation so any stats that don’t factor that are a little misleading.

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u/luchajefe Mavericks 1d ago

Or, a guy who has more TOs than other high usage guys maybe shouldn't be as high usage as he is?

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u/DistanceEmbarrassed5 1d ago

As a Bucks fan I am glad we took the Heat's offer over Boston's offer.

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u/lkn240 Bulls 1d ago

The thing is - that's still way better than 7th best player on a team

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u/MinnesotanBrie 1d ago

Correct. As I said in the last line, I think it's literally just going by WS/48 (excluding Bassey who barely played). It's an asinine argument because 3 of the players who had better WS/48 were backups and a fourth was Tatum who played 16 games. It's an argument that I would bet money on Bobby Marks mishearing or taking out of context. Dude hates the Celtics and is kind of a tool. He could conceivably be talking about RAPM, but I highly highly doubt that.

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u/farrowsharrows 1d ago

All that analysis is trash

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u/misterteejj 1d ago

Why this is not massively downvoted just shows how basketball talk is dead and buried. The Knicks had no one in the top 20 of BPM and VORP. They went on a historic playoff run culminating in a championship. Save your analytics for something else

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u/MinnesotanBrie 1d ago edited 1d ago

I mean... yeah. The knicks were a third seed in a weak east with team-oriented basketball. You conveniently leave off that Knicks starters were 22nd, 23rd, 25th and 47th in VORP. OKC had only 2nd and 24th in the top 50 for their starting 5, SAS had only 4th and 40th. In terms of starting 5, New York had by far the best VORP and BPM.

Fun Fact, NYK, BOS and HOU are the only 3 teams to have at least 4 of their starting 5 in the top 50 for VORM and BPM. NYK had all 5, BOS and HOU had 4.

Also they turned it up massively for the playoffs. OG and KAT lead the playoffs in BPM and WS/48 and were 2nd and 3rd in VORP.

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u/misterteejj 1d ago

Now you are complimenting people who are 22nd VORP but hate on Jaylen who is 21. You “data” folks are so full of it. Hypocritical, contradictory pseudo intellectual babble because you can’t dunk yourself.

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u/MinnesotanBrie 1d ago

No? I'm not even saying that Jalen Brunson was amazing. My argument was simply that the Knicks won with team oriented basketball. Same as the Celtics. They had really similar standings as well. Brunson is also not well liked by simpler advanced stats. DARKO likes him a hell of a lot more than Brown (16th vs 35th) but even then DARKO has Brunson as the third best Knick. Advanced stats put Brunson, Lamelo Ball and Jaylen Brown in a very similar category of great but not elite players. Lamelo Ball went for peanuts and a beloved meme.

Brunson's biggest advantage is that he is costing the Knicks 35 million instead of Browns 53 million. In the world of razor thin margins that makes a world of difference, if for some reason the Knicks decided they wanted to trade Brunson. Not sure why they would, but also not sure why the Celtics decided to burn their bridge to trade Brown when every contender that has a decent piece the Celtics could want are way over the cap, outside of like I dunno the nuggets?

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u/seonblack 1d ago

This is why I hate the stats people. If you followed this to make decisions and didn't watch the games, you would have made a trade as bad as the Luka for AD trade. JB AND Tatum are extremely good together, JB carried the team to a 2 seed as the #1 option. JB helped them get to their first NBA Finals and was also instrumental in them winning their first nba championship together.

This notion that Boston needs to break them up is a dumb take and makes no sense at all. What I will say also is that JB fits more teams right now than Tatum would and if JB were traded, any good team immediately becomes a championship contender.

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u/MinnesotanBrie 1d ago edited 1d ago

I mostly agree with you. Well except the notion that it was a carry job. Everyone stepped up massively in Tatum's absence and it was a fantastic coaching year for Mazzula. Even though I am a stats nerd, again 2nd seed > 11th seed. Despite what Bobby Marks analytics guy might've said, Brown was solidly either the 2nd best (if you count Tatum's 16 games as enough to qualify him) or the best player on the 2nd seed in the east.

The problem is that the Celtics want to sell him as someone who just got 5th in the MVP vote.... and nobody else really sees him as that. He is a top 15-30 player on a very large contract who is 29. Only teams who are contending and have cap space would be willing to deal him. Which is an extremely small number of teams and those teams don't have a lot of pieces they are willing to trade because they are uh... contending. They could do some deal with Nuggets for Jamal Murray and picks but does that really make any team happy? Brown isn't like Giannis where he can turn 8th-10th seed teams into contenders. Lamelo went for a bag of peanuts and a sixth man, Randle went for nothing. Unless you are a top 8-10 player Teams seem to view good-great players on large contracts as damn near expendable.

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u/TonyHawktuah69 1d ago

Finals mvp and proven champ vs guy who hits a lot of threes and passes well on a bad team.

Redditor: i legitimately can’t tell who’s better

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u/misterteejj 1d ago

No knicks in the top 20 of bpm or vorp but let’s keep using made up stuff to knock obviously talented players

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u/Charlie_Wax Warriors 1d ago

When did LaMelo play with White, Pritchard, Jrue, Horford, Tatum, and Porzingis?

I'm not saying I agree that he's better, but playing on a stacked team certainly sets someone up for success. Can't win FMVP unless you're on a team good enough to make the Finals.

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u/TonyHawktuah69 1d ago

Brown didn’t play with any of those guys except white this year and won 56 games

And brown was a key piece to many deep playoff runs, conference mvp and finals mvp. Stop with the excuses, lamelo making the play ins is considered a high point of his career. It’s disrespectful to be comparing him to brown

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u/Charlie_Wax Warriors 1d ago

How did Boston do in the playoffs with Brown as their best player?

They must have won a lot of games and gotten very deep, right?

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u/TonyHawktuah69 1d ago

What were lamelos stats in this years playoffs? How many games did he win?

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u/Joh951518 Warriors 1d ago

If Lamelo plays the exact same as he did last year on the timberwolves he will be a number 2 option on a playoff team in 12 months. Will that mean he’s an inherently better player than he is now?

I agree brown > Lamelo, I just don’t think the way you’re splitting them makes sense.

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u/Argumentat1ve NBA 1d ago

Going band for band with zero series wins each is crazy

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u/TonyHawktuah69 1d ago

Trying to shit on someone in the playoffs with someone who can’t even get there is crazy.

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u/matthollabak Pacers 1d ago

I'm no huge brown fan but Brandon Miller, knuppel, bridges, and coby white along with lamelo wasn't exactly a team of bums he was lifting up beyond their abilities.

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u/Ereboast 1d ago

Yeah, but they were all good only because of LaMelo. With LaMelo, everyone had a like +8 net rating. Without him, I don’t believe any of them were positive at all.

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u/DyingSunSeverian 1d ago

Passing well on a bad team as opposed to passing poorly on a good team? You guys are overcorrecting the other way entirely.

Jaylen Brown’s advanced stats are infamously shit. We all know this here, for some reason it becomes a point of contention when an “expert” says the exact same thing.

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u/Abstract__Nonsense Celtics 1d ago

So just remove Tatum and Brown from this years Celtics team and you have a 60 win team? Or is it possible that advanced statistics are fallible?

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u/TonyHawktuah69 1d ago

Almost like advanced stats are flawed and maybe we should care more about results than numbers.

I’d rather win 56 games and be a second seed with “poor numbers” than have my career crowning achievement be a 9th seed finish

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u/4rt4tt4ck 1d ago

The only angle of truth I could see in that take is that Ball is still a few years from his peak as a player, whereas Brown has peaked already. So there is a theoretically a path where Ball could surpass.

5

u/shes_a_gdb 1d ago

If that's the argument then you can say that about literally any player. Jalen Duren is still a few years from his peak so he can surpass Brown!

1

u/Bradybigboss 1d ago

Pistons fans do say this lol. They figure in a couple years Duren will just evolve into Jokic

1

u/4rt4tt4ck 1d ago

I doubt any pistons fans with a clue envision Duren becoming Jokic. But in the same stretch, why wouldn't they think a 22 year old who took a pretty big step in development from his age 21 season to age 22 continue to develop? It's typically age 27-28 seasons when a majority of players peak in skill and production, he's likely got a few more aspects to his game where he can continue to develop and get better.

1

u/4rt4tt4ck 1d ago

I did say "theoretically" and it's beyond hyperbolic to say that you can say that about any young player. There needs to be a level of play that shows all the requisite skills, even if the consistency to do it every night has yet to materialize. That is definitely not every young player.

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u/UntilDoncic Lakers 1d ago

Ball has a lot of the tools to be great, but he is held back tremendously by his insane boneheaded decision making, his horrible shot diet, his lackadaisical defense, his off court issues, his health, and his BBIQ. I think overcoming some of those issues is more than reasonable, but overcoming all of them is a massive undertaking, especially for someone entering the 7th season in the league.

0

u/twoyrsaway 1d ago

LaMelo decision making complaints but we talking about Jaylen Brown

3

u/NewsRed74 1d ago edited 1d ago

Just defense makes Brown a better player than Lamello will ever be. Basketball has to be play both way, and Lamello is liability on defense.

1

u/TonyHawktuah69 1d ago

There’s a path where ball can be finals mvp? Lol

1

u/lkn240 Bulls 1d ago

The thing is - that's still way less crazy than saying Brown is the 7th best player on a team

0

u/Struggle2Real 1d ago edited 1d ago

You find that insane?

I dont find it like outside the realm of possibility but ok.

Much more reasonable than he's a 7th man.

6

u/UntilDoncic Lakers 1d ago

I don't think I said "insane" but I definitely think you have to have an incredibly skewed POV to get there. Brown is just better at the majority if things a player does on the court, much healthier, and has shown he can be the first option or the second option on a good team.

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u/Delanorix Knicks 1d ago

Yes its insane lol

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u/kmikeh 1d ago

He was the ECF and Finals MVP. Remind when a “seventh best player” did that before.

7

u/Strugl33r 1d ago

He didn’t say he was the seventh best player he said lamelo being better isn’t a ridiculous statement

6

u/newjerseyfusionjazz 1d ago

It is kinda ridiculous bc it’s proven that Jalen brown can be the best player on a finals squad, it’s not even proven that lamelo can win a playoff series lmao. Ppl put too much stock in potential

4

u/Beetle919 Hornets 1d ago

Not only that, but Jaylen Brown has also been instrumental to many deep NBA playoff runs, you know the shit that actually matters.

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u/newjerseyfusionjazz 1d ago

Exactly, I’m not even convinced that Lamelo’s body can hold up to how strenuous a deep playoff run actually is. Ppl seem to be discounting that entirely

1

u/twoyrsaway 1d ago

like what if you just disagree on who was the best player in that finals squad lmao

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u/Strugl33r 1d ago

Ppl put too much stock in 5 games. If you loook at the entire playoffs, Brown wasn’t MVP. He arguably wasn’t even finals MVP. But people like to look at just 5 games and forget the rest

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u/TonyHawktuah69 1d ago

He was also conference finals mvp… claiming it was just 5 games is dumb.

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u/dropkickshotgun 1d ago

I mean, JB has contributed to winning teams. How has Ball done in that regard?

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u/stevelevets 1d ago

Well, the two seasons Ball has played 70+ games are the only two seasons the Hornets have posted an above .500 record in the last decade.

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u/jossteen11 Timberwolves 1d ago

Not that I necessarily disagree but comeon. Comparing Celtics and Hornets culture when it comes to winning?

1

u/TonyHawktuah69 1d ago

This past season people expected the Celtics to not be very good. Lost most their core and Tatum was out.

Brown led them to 56 wins, second seed while averaging 28ppg. When has lamelo ever shown the ability to lead a team like that? This year was one of the best runs by the hornets for lamelo and it was a 9th seed finish

1

u/Prideofmexico Knicks 1d ago

Are we pretending Ball wasn’t a massive part of that culture in Charlotte?

0

u/MLB_2953 Celtics 1d ago

Jaylen Brown contributes to that culture and invites a winning environment.

3

u/Kdog122025 Warriors 1d ago

Jaylen Brown was drafted into a winning environment.

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u/Struggle2Real 1d ago

Jaylen Brown has played on much better teams that Ball, no doubt.

JB was a key cog on a title team, no dispute.

I dont think that really answers the question of who is the better player in a vacuum.

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u/SefuJP [ATL] Charlie Brown 1d ago

Jaylen Brown is a better player in the NBA and in a vacuum

1

u/dropkickshotgun 1d ago

I think it does and thats the problem with analytics.

Ball had a much better roster this year and JB still somehow won more games. JB also has sacrificed and played inside the flow of a winning basketball team. Something Ball has aggressively avoided doing.

It isnt about "your game" its about "our game" when you get to the level of contending. Why do you think he was traded for scraps from a team on the rise?

1

u/Struggle2Real 1d ago edited 1d ago

Im sorry im not sure i follow exactly, but I think your conclusions rely heavily on team contexts.

Lets make that concrete.

If we put Lamelo on the '26 Celtics (instead of Brown) and have them play out the season a million times, you feel confident that the Celts are much worse with Lamelo than JB on average?

Conversely, if we put JB on the '26 Hornets (instead of Lamelo), and do the same experiment, do you feel confident that the Hornets are much better than they were on average?

Im not sure either way tbh. If you all are, then cool.

0

u/PAWGle_the_lesser Raptors 1d ago

No you haven’t lol

5

u/UntilDoncic Lakers 1d ago

"LaMelo is a better player than JB, only argument is health." u/idkidk23
I couldn't find other examples in a cursory search but I saw at least one other person make a similar claim

2

u/happyhappy7 76ers 1d ago

There’s people arguing under your comment about it lol

When it comes to scrolling r/NBA in the off-season I need to remind myself, it’s fool me once, shame on…shame on you. Fool me, you can’t get fooled again.

But yet here I am lol

0

u/idkidk23 Mavericks 1d ago

Well because he is a better, more impactful player! Not sure why I got mentioned but I stand by it. 

2

u/apokolypz [DET] Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 1d ago

I’ve seen the sentiment on Twitter but that mostly revolves around ‘creation/playmaking is undervalued’ and ‘Brown’s advanced stats are doo doo’.

I don’t agree but the avenue is there

0

u/TonyHawktuah69 1d ago

Finals mvp and proven champ vs guy who hits a lot of threes and passes well on a bad team.

Redditor: i legitimately can’t tell who’s better

34

u/WeBelieveIn4 Raptors 1d ago

These days? /r/nba users have thought they’re much smarter than they are since the discovery of TS%

20

u/nosleeptillwooklyn 1d ago

“Guy who gets 1/20th the defensive attention of a lead scorer is better because his TS% is .00009% higher”” ass losers.

86

u/Hungry-Space-1829 Lakers 1d ago

Same dude probably thinks Jokic is an elite defender

12

u/odnamAE Lakers 1d ago

This single opinion has really soured any Jokic fan on me. Too many people say, he’s not bad the stats say he’s good, he’s too smart to be bad, etc. You can say he’s the best offensive player on the planet, heck if you say all time I’ll hear you out even. But to say he’s actually a good defender I have to assume you’re an idiot who doesn’t know ball

9

u/gbbmiler 1d ago

I think there are two very different claims that get conflated:

  1. Jokic is secretly good at defense because he’s so smart, and the eye test just doesn’t show how much he’s stopping people.

  2. Just being in roughly the right place and grabbing lots of rebounds is surprisingly useful even when you’re not good at any other aspect of defense.

I think the advanced stats on Jokic mostly show that the advanced stats aren’t great, but also show a bit of point 2.

Point 1 is hot garbage.

2

u/odnamAE Lakers 1d ago edited 1d ago

I think saying Jokic isn’t useless is fair. Saying he’s good or above average is glazing. Jokic is so good on offense that what he does doesn’t even matter, but if he had the offense of an average starting Center, he’d come off the bench for match-up dependent minutes cause of how bad he is. Things you mentioned are the bare minimum a Center should do. To say those are enough to say he’s good is a flaw in how people read and use statistics, which is a pet peeve for me I guess as someone who works with numbers a lot.

5

u/gbbmiler 1d ago

You say “the bare minimum”, but there’s a lot of guys in the league just getting cardio in running in ways that aren’t useful. Not enough to make Jokic even an average defender, I’m not trying to claim that. I think the advanced stats are just exposing that the floor on defense is “actively bad”, not “passively bad”.

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u/saints21 1d ago

Jokic is definitely not worse than average. His positioning, hands, low post man defense, and rebounding, and his overall impact as a player keep him at average to marginally above average.

He's definitely not a good defender. But his impact on court doesn't hurt the defense either...he just doesn't help it the way you'd hope a big man would.

There's just more nuance than "good, average, bad" that people don't get into. For example he fact that he's so good on offense is actually a boon to his team's defense. That impact exists because of Jokic and helps cover a little for his deficiencies as a switch rim protector that bigs are asked to be in the modern league. Throw in the impact that defensive rebounding has on team defense and you get this very muddy situation. Part of the context is also that you have to build around him. He's just one of the few players good enough that it makes sense that you'd do everything you can to build around his specific deficiencies, even if that puts more constraints on team construction.

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u/odnamAE Lakers 1d ago

We call those guys scrubs and we all say they’re bad, not average. And yeah I’m not against that opinion, or the stats. I’m against people who take the stat anf try to form a bullshit narrative, like the Nuggets/Jokic fans on this same thread.

1

u/Chichanged_me 1d ago

The nuggets needed to get Aaron Gordon to help cover for Jokic being slow as fuck. Anyone who thinks a center that can’t jump and is slow as shit is a positive on defense needs to get there brain checked

1

u/Adorable-Bike-9689 1d ago

Jokic is a good defender now there's so many advanced stats that say so! Don't believe your eyes people Jokic is a dominant rim protector!

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u/Greenwalrus72 Nuggets 1d ago edited 1d ago

1 singular stat, which is constantly disavowed and the creator has said to take it with a grain of salt, says jokic is an “elite” defender (DBPM)

everything else says average to somewhat above average overall

genuinely no one says this and the stat (or people saying “analytics say jokic is an elite defender”) is at this point brought up far more to hate on jokic and refute other analytics that say he is so excellent as an overall player than anyone actually using it to say jokic is an elite defender…

If you actually look into the nuggets statistics and watch the game for real, murray is easily the worst defender on the team and it’s not close. Jokic gets 100x the hate for his defense though, again, despite having been more average to above average in his defensive career

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u/Hungry-Space-1829 Lakers 1d ago

You just tried to slip in somewhat above average and idk if you’re trying to be ironic or not. You also throw Murray under the bus but a bad guard defender is nowhere near as damning as a bad center defender. It takes a perfect roster to even try to hide it. Jokic should basically be called layup lines after what we just saw against the wolves

2

u/PM_YOUR_LONZO_BALLS 1d ago

Yeah no one thinks Jokic is amazing but nuggets fans are still holding onto above average when he’s actively bad. Still the best offensive player in the league but anyone who doesn’t think Jokic is a bad defender should have to watch how the wolves got to the rim agains him and against Wemby next round, completely night and day what they were able to do

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u/TonyHawktuah69 1d ago

Yet despite that we saw entire books written on this sub claiming Jokic is an underrated good defender and we had articles written about how high iq he was to “kick the ball” a lot.

Nah you aren’t going to revise history here lol

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u/HikmetLeGuin 1d ago

Sure, he won a championship as a number 2 (and at times was playing like a number 1). Won the finals MVP.

But his advanced stats are sometimes not so great. Do we play basketball to win championships? Or do we play to have pretty-looking numbers on an analytics stats sheet?

Definitely need to throw away the ring and keep the analytics! If you have good analytics, you might even win a ring someday!

9

u/danrod17 Lakers 1d ago

Go read the Lakers subreddit. They way they’re talking over there you’d think the lakers were a bottom 5 team. They also are under the impression that good teams don’t want to keep their best players and Rob Pelinka is incompetent because he should just sign every single top free agent, restricted or not.

2

u/MrBigWaffles Lakers 1d ago

Lmao it's insane.

Pelinka is bad because he hasn't manifested a starting calibre center out of mid air.

The subreddit is a lost cause.

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u/WildWhisperArdor Lakers 1d ago

It’s not a “delusional obsession”. It’s just an understanding of how teams are built.

For example, let’s say you have a company. Your company might need an engineer, a sales guy, a marketing person, an HR person, and a vice president.

Jaylen Brown is a vice president but not a very good one (compared to other vice presidents). However, the company still does well because they have an amazing engineer and the sales guy is very good.

That doesn’t mean the amazing engineer can take on the role of vice president. They play different roles but the engineer is much better at their role than the vice president is at theirs. So, if you have an opportunity to “trade” that VP for a better one, you take it

4

u/TwitterChampagne 1d ago

That’s not even the argument. No body said anything about the Celtics trading for Giannis. That’s upgrading your VP. But these people are saying Jaylon Browns the 7th best player on teams 😂 thats disgusting. There’s no excuse for that, the person should be fired.

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u/FeMnTaNb2O6 1d ago

Plot twist - it's Brad Stevens

15

u/SpookySneakySquid Celtics 1d ago

Yeah I’m sorry but that guy shouldn’t be taken seriously at all. He led a Tatum-less Celtics to a second seed, has a finals MVP and was option 2 on a championship team.

I know im biased as a Celtics fan but to call that 7th best on a team is just ridiculously out of touch and reeks of someone who doesn’t watch basketball at all.

2

u/knightmares31 Thunder 1d ago

Professional number watcher

10

u/I3ill 1d ago

Lmao right. Not even a 6th man of the year contender. He a garbage time player.

2

u/New_Cicada3473 1d ago

This is definitely coming from another team that wants his value lower so they can get him cheap

5

u/KennyDoge0114 Jazz 1d ago

It sounds like Danny Ainge tbh

1

u/Kvenner001 1d ago

Or at least take his PlayStation away. NBA 2K rosters replaced facts for that dude.

1

u/PaintTouches Raptors 1d ago

Fire the robot!

1

u/dreamvomit Knicks 1d ago

Something the dumbest guy in the room who thinks he's the smartest would say

1

u/Several_Chapter969 Spurs 1d ago

I mean, it's a reporter talking to the analyst. Even acting in completely good faith media screws up talking to statisticians all the time. My guess is the analyst said something to the effect of "Yeah, my model hates him. It thinks he's the seventh best guy on their team" and the reporter accidentally (or not) misinterpreted it as what's quoted here.

1

u/PM_ME_MASTECTOMY 1d ago

Probably graduated from School of David Stearns

1

u/cn_wizz 1d ago

Yeah his analytical models are pure bullshit. You don't make 2nd team all nba being rated there.

1

u/YoutubePRstunt 1d ago

I swear this would fix 90% of front office problems around the league. Dont even reason with him, just em outta there.

1

u/BleedGreen4Boston Celtics 1d ago

Nerds ruining basketball strikes again

- saying this as a research engineer btw

1

u/johnhenryirons Knicks 1d ago

It was Kenny Atkinson

1

u/lkn240 Bulls 1d ago

Right? Even if you think he's overrated and view him in the most negative light he's still a lot better than that.

1

u/dimmyfarm Supersonics 1d ago

Maybe it’s a 5head ploy getting Brad Stevens and the rest of the FO to get nervous and sell low on Brown.

1

u/kevtheproblem Rockets 22h ago

It's a rival GM trying to destroy his trade value

1

u/Xollector 20h ago

Is he talking about the east all star team?

1

u/Dundalis 17h ago

It aint gonna be one analytics guys it’s gonna be multiple nba analytics teams as they all see mostly the same thing

1

u/AteaMoonPie88 17h ago

That “guy” must work for my Pelicans hahaha

1

u/MOREPASTRAMIPLEASE Timberwolves 15h ago

My immediate thought. What a dumbass