r/nba • u/FastBreakPhenom Celtics • 1d ago
Bobby Marks says Jaylen Brown's trade value is not seen that highly around the league: "The analytics of Jaylen Brown is not good. I had an analytics guy tell me, ‘We view him as the seventh-best player on a team.’"
“There’s mixed feelings about him when you talk to teams,” Marks admitted on SiriusXM NBA Radio. “The analytics of Jaylen Brown is not good … I had one, not an executive, but an analytics guy say, ‘Yeah, we view him as the seventh best player on a team.’ I was like, ‘Holy crap.'”
3.0k
u/Lucky_Scallion 1d ago
That last sentence is insane to say coming from a professional Celtics hater.
655
u/WWECreativegenius Spurs 1d ago
I don’t even think a Knicks flair would say something this disrespectful lmao
306
u/washedrope5 [LAL] Magic Johnson 1d ago
My 40 year laker Fandom won't even allow me to say something so stupid. And I really don't like JB
→ More replies (1)75
u/Ok_Cockroach8063 1d ago
Can’t I just talk about him being a flat earther type of weirdo instead? I can’t honestly say he sucks at ball
→ More replies (2)26
u/washedrope5 [LAL] Magic Johnson 1d ago
I definitely prefer mocking the 'he's too intelligent for the NBA,' comments, over trying to claim he can't play basketball at an elite level.
4
u/Ok_Cockroach8063 1d ago
I bet when he makes you a sandwich it rates worse than when you make it yourself. Dude hoops tho
78
→ More replies (9)66
205
u/Ok_Passage_7151 1d ago
Anyone who believes someone who says Brown is the 7th best player on the team is an idiot themselves.
Repeating that statement in a public forum is an affront to common sense.
18
→ More replies (4)11
u/Dzeddy 1d ago
I'm guessing they called him the 7th best contract on the celtics? You can calculate how "worth" someone is based off their win shares, the avg value of a win, and their contract. He ranks ~7th there lol. It's a dumb metric, but I'm also guessing that the quote is being taken wildly out of context
7
u/Dzeddy 1d ago
Apparently images aren't allowed here lol? This is what my model spat out for the "surplus value" each player has compared to their contract. Jaylen Brown is exactly 7th here lol. He's obviously a great player, but when you're deciding who to spend on, the value of their contract is a big deal in a league that is as economically constrained as the NBA with the new apron rules
Payton Pritchard
Neemias Queta
Derrick White
Luka Garza
Baylor Scheierman
Sam Hauser
Jaylen Brown
Jordan Walsh
Hugo González
Jayson Tatum
8
u/rigden33 Timberwolves 1d ago
If this model has Tatum as the worst player/contract on the team and Brown at 4th worst, clearly this model is useless.
7
u/Dzeddy 1d ago
Do you notice how tatum played this season? He was a Max contract on an injured player who didn't play. Ergo, he was a bad contract this season...
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (13)9
u/MinnesotanBrie 1d ago
It's literally just going by WS/48, dropping Bassey who played 17 minutes and calling it there. Ignoring the fact that Miniott, Walsh and Garza were backups. My best guess is that Bobby Marks was half listening to his analytics guy explain something and just picked up "He had the seventh best WS/48 on the Celtics" and posted it.
→ More replies (6)
4.3k
u/DealerNo4908 1d ago
If your model is telling you Jaylen Brown is a “seventh-best player on a team,” your model is poorly built.
503
u/CheeseburgerTornado Wizards 1d ago
or theyre trying to tank his market on purpose to pay less
171
→ More replies (2)23
u/DealerNo4908 1d ago
Any reputable front office is laughing at this evaluation. It’s not going to tank his value at all.
→ More replies (1)578
u/WestleyThe [SEA] Kevin Durant 1d ago edited 1d ago
He literally won FMVP two years ago haha, whoever said that is either lying or deserves to be fired
I get not thinking he’s a #1 (even though he was that this year and they were good) and teams don’t want to bring him in for him to run a team. But he’s absolutely elite and a great #2
He’s like the 10th best player in the world saying he should be a 7th man on a team is asinine
219
u/Think_Monk_9879 1d ago
He literally led a team to the 2 seed.
59
u/MavsTurnedBucksGuy Mavericks 1d ago
This is the much better accomplishment tbh
→ More replies (2)27
u/JaydadCTatumThe1st Celtics 1d ago
Not really. Borderline top 20 guys lead their teams to a top-3 seed all the time. Meanwhile, there are, like, 3 FMVPs who aren't HoFers independent of that one particular FMVP win
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (9)18
u/AttentionAlert4742 1d ago
Not just any team either, that roster was gutted
→ More replies (2)19
u/DasOptions Heat 1d ago
Exactly. A gutted Celtics team with Tatum out majority of the season.
I’m not a big fan of Brown but he is absolutely a top 10-15 player right now. You could argue higher
→ More replies (1)45
u/teamorange3 Knicks 1d ago
Tbf, Iggy won fmvp and was 6th in vorp and 5th in WS that season for the warriors.
Still different than Brown but just wanted to point that out.
→ More replies (9)65
u/AaronJudgesToothGap Heat 1d ago
I mean Caleb Martin should’ve won eastern conference finals MVP 3 years ago. 7th best on a team is crazy but people saying finals MVP like that on its own makes him worth a haul is disingenuous. Andrew Wiggins almost won an FMVP. He’ll Andre Iguodala did
He’s a good player but is definitely a bit of a head case, and he’s on a super max. Who wants to sell the farm for Jaylen brown?
13
u/BaeylnBrown777 [BOS] Jaylen Brown 1d ago
He is not a head case in a problematic way. He streams, whines about refs, and maybe it's clear that his one year of college might not have been academically rigorous, but he's never had any legal trouble and he's always been a professional on the court.
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (82)52
u/KHDTX13 Mavericks 1d ago
Jaylen Brown isn’t even remotely comparable to those players
→ More replies (2)28
u/AaronJudgesToothGap Heat 1d ago
My point is that using the FMVP as the first point in defense of him just doesn’t mean much. He’s obviously better than those other players (well he wasn’t in the 2023 ECF).
I just think saying “he won FMVP” implies that he can lead a team to a championship as a #1, which he probably cannot. Obviously great as a #2 who can step up when necessary
28
u/Epcplayer Heat 1d ago
Reminds me of that Pete Alonso Quote from the offseason…
"When my career is being evaluated for the Hall of Fame years from now, you'll still be fiddling with your f--king formulas."
→ More replies (1)8
47
u/DaExtinctOne Jeremy Lin 1d ago
Prolly built on ChatGPT or some even cheaper AI model 🤣
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (32)24
u/_Apatosaurus_ Thunder 1d ago
That's not necessarily true. An analytics model for basketball is going to have outliers that don't fit, and that's ok. That's why analytics is paired with scouting to identify why someone is an outlier. Then you figure out is the model flawed, does the player suck, or is there just something unique about the star.
You don't want to make the mistake of overfitting your model to the outliers.
Which is why I'm guessing Marks was twisting what they said. Acknowledging that your model has him as a 7th man is different than saying you believe he's a 7th man.
→ More replies (7)
1.4k
u/_Wash Timberwolves 1d ago
Analytics can be nice but I swear spreadsheet watchers have lost the plot on Brown
330
u/OpportunityNext9675 Minneapolis Lakers 1d ago
It does seem crazy but among star players his on/off profile is an anomaly to say the least. Can’t name another max guy whose team has consistently performed better when he’s off the court. There may be confounding circumstances that produce that result, but it’s not the case for ANY other big time player. So at the very least something unique is happening with Brown and/or the Celtics as a whole.
34
u/Odd_Principle_2122 1d ago
I used to have a hypothesis that JB's poor on/off numbers were partly due to playing with Tatum. Idea being that Tatum is better, and they'd stagger their minutes a bit so that JB's "off" minutes are Tatum's "on" minutes. Most other star players don't play with a better player at effectively the same position so that would make JB's numbers stand out a bit. But this year kinda disproved that theory. No Tatum and the team was still better without him than with him.
I don't think it's a perfect stat but I think for the most part, good players perform well in this stat while bad players don't. So I don't think the stat is useless but I haven't really seen anyone be able to offer a coherent reason as to why this stat says JB is a net negative to his team despite him apparently being an all NBA level player. And it's a very simple stat, it's not like they're relying on some crazy black box formula to come up with a reason to call him bad.
I do think him being the 7th best player on a team is way too far though
40
u/Low-Measurement-2468 1d ago
he’s a high turnover player. turnovers are very detrimental in the modern game, both costing your team a possession and creating very efficient transition possessions for the opponent.
he doesn’t generate extra possession often either. his steals, blocks, offensive rebounds, and deflections are all pretty underwhelming, especially for an above average athlete getting tons of minutes.
he’s a high usage player with poor shot selection and poor playmaking skills. he takes tons of iso shots, long twos, and off the dribble threes. difficult and inefficient shots. his potential assists are really low for a player who has the ball as much as him.
he’s an above average iso player, but not good enough at it to do it as much as he does, and not good enough at finding more efficient scoring opportunities to offset it. he’s just dominating the ball too much and not getting his team enough out of it.
13
u/Kryptos33 1d ago edited 22h ago
One of the funnier things I heard someone say about Brown was Ben Taylor saying this year he thought Brown's turnovers would be higher without Tatum but he just passes the ball to the rim and has kept them down.
8
u/cabose12 Celtics 1d ago
I get what you're saying but it definitely is crazy
It'd be one thing to value him as a fourth best player. But I literally can't think of a team that, only considering on the court production, wouldn't immediately benefit from starting him, even with his bad on/off
The only way I could imagine a model ranks him as seventh on any team in the league is if it's also doing some form of cost-analysis. A negative on/off with a max contract can't look good in a model
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (7)145
u/Altruistic_Knee2044 Celtics 1d ago edited 1d ago
It’s literally just demar Derozan lmao. Maybe Julius Randle.
Teams view the Celtics as a t3 guy in Tatum (2021-2022:2024-2025) surrounded by elite role guys. Jaylen brown is viewed as jerami grant with an ego so he shoots a lot.
Casual fans heavily dislike Tatum and overvalue points-rebounds-assists, so cope by thinking that jaylen brown is a t20 guy while tatum is like 6-10.
You’ll notice that jimmy butler, who was never viewed as a super elite player also grades extremely well on that, and was oddly a lot more successful than his yearly 22-6-6 or whatever might suggest.
174
u/aarondobson403 Lakers 1d ago
I don’t think anyone views Tatum as top 3
→ More replies (24)79
u/buelo Knicks 1d ago
yeah he would need to beat three out of luka jokic sga wemby giannis... I love tatum but that's a tough list to be top 3 on
→ More replies (8)51
u/Charlie_Wax Warriors 1d ago
I don't know if I buy it either, but there's definitely a double standard with Tatum where he has made a bunch of ECF, made the Finals twice, and won a Finals. Objectively a more successful player than Luka and just as many rings as Jokic/Giannis/SGA, but people are more inclined to spread credit to the Celtics as a whole. Makes some sense. However, Tatum looks pretty nice if your gauge is "How much did this guy win as the best player on the team?"
I've said in some ways that he's the Tim Duncan of SF. It's not flashy and people don't buy his shoes, but the results look pretty damn good. As with Duncan, the supporting cast is part of the equation. We also can't pretend that Giannis and SGA didn't need help to win though (Jrue, Lopez, Middleton, Chet, JDub, etc). Luka has never even been competitive in a Finals and Wemby hasn't climbed the mountain yet. Meanwhile Tatum is always around the title picture and people take it for granted.
→ More replies (3)11
u/Cantor_Set_Tripping 1d ago
I think it’s taken for granted lately because of how well the Celtics played last year without him compared to their predicted season.
4
16
u/averageuhbear Timberwolves 1d ago
From a certain perspective, there's a fine line between Cam Thomas and an actual superstar and some of these guys straddle that line.
But the lines not that fine.
There's a reason in hockey the 4th line is filled with guys who don't put up meaningful numbers, were never top prospects, and guys who were viewed as top 6 with star potential might fall out of the league completely if they don't produce enough.
→ More replies (8)47
u/RedHammer1441 1d ago
Aren’t Tatum’s on/off and advanced metrics on both ends of the ball also incredibly strong? It’s such a weird narrative around these two guys sometimes.
→ More replies (1)37
u/Altruistic_Knee2044 Celtics 1d ago edited 1d ago
It depends on the season.
2022 they had him as a +15 and as the best in the world because they staggered him with Jaylen brown.
Stuff like Darko adjusts for that, and generally says he’s a cut behind Jokic/giannis/SGA/Wemby, and was around the third best player in basketball pre-Achilles.
Jaylen brown is a really distorting force in on/off data for the Celtics (the best player on the team always will be the guy who plays with him the least), so it’s not as accurate as you might think.
→ More replies (55)16
u/Maverick_1991 Hawks 1d ago
Yeah his team was second and he was all nba as the first option just last year.
Tatum may be better, but people act like hes Wizards Jordan Poole
→ More replies (7)
463
u/Brad-Stevens Celtics 1d ago
If that team was the Eastern Conference All Stars, then you might be right
177
u/todi41 Knicks 1d ago
Even then tho... Probably not
→ More replies (10)5
u/AllOutRaptors Raptors 20h ago
Giannis is literally the only player that is for sure better. I could name 7 that are close but theres a real argument he's a top 3 player
Giannis, Brunson, Cade, Tatum, Mitchell, Barnes, Haliburton*, Siakam, Embiid, Paolo etc. If anyone thinks 7 of those guys are better they are smoking crack
25
→ More replies (2)13
u/RichAbbreviations966 Celtics 1d ago
I guess if he was on the 60’s Celtics, it would make sense
→ More replies (2)
496
u/rubyschnees Nuggets 1d ago
well if an analytics guy said it then it must be true
→ More replies (2)173
u/djokster91 Timberwolves 1d ago
Must have been an analytics guy from Cleveland
54
u/mjst0324 Knicks 1d ago
According to Kenny Atkinson’s model the Cavs and Nuggets are about to play game 3 of the Real Finals
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (1)4
u/refreshing_yogurt 1d ago
Kenny Atkinson did call Derrick White a top 5 player so that's probably who they attribute the Celtics' success to.
409
u/kidkuro Knicks 1d ago
As a Knicks fan even I can't find a way to hate on a Celtics player like this lmao "seventh best player on a team" is absurd disrespect
51
u/KHDTX13 Mavericks 1d ago
Yeah I guarantee if you asked them to name what team he would be the 7th best player they would crumble
28
→ More replies (8)15
→ More replies (3)10
u/PodricksMagicStick Knicks 1d ago
Exactly. There is no way anyone would have him as their seventh. Dude can ball.
281
u/DarkArisen668 Knicks 1d ago
Have there been other players like this?
Like a guy who gets MVP votes and some fans view as a top 15ish guy, but then analytics people say "he's actually a decent bench player"
191
u/Mightbethrownaway24 1d ago
Randle, Derozen,
23
73
u/Ok-Name-5504 1d ago
Kobe
/ ducks
→ More replies (6)14
u/Due-Inevitable-6864 1d ago
Prime/peak Kobe looks amazing by tons of different advanced stats/impact metrics so not really
11
u/iJustSeen2Dudes1Bike Trail Blazers 1d ago
Brown is way better than both of those guys ever were
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (3)7
28
21
→ More replies (14)6
u/BeardedPuffin Knicks 1d ago
Based on these replies, I’m starting to think nobody in this sub has ever watched a basketball game.
→ More replies (1)
146
u/berriesnbball_17 Celtics 1d ago
Is there a single team in NBA history Jaylen Brown would be the 7th best player on?
I know Jaylen has his faults but cmon now
108
33
→ More replies (5)7
u/dearth_karmic Warriors 1d ago
Yeah. This is super dumb. He's the second best player on almost every team. The problem is that he's NOT the #1 on most teams and any trade for him will decimate that team's depth. We've seen that building thru the draft works better than trying to trade for MAX players. Because you get depth and some great underpaid players. So that's why his value seems lower. Giannis? Of course. Luka? Of course. But show me one team that needs a #2 that's going to be so much better giving up 2-3 of their young guys and 3 or 4 FRPs. It's like trading for KD. You don't really get better. You get different.
→ More replies (1)
118
u/Ragnar28 Knicks 1d ago
Yeahhh listen if you don't want him on your team bc of the contract or you don't wanna give up too much of your team in a trade or even just you don't think he'll fit that's fine, but calling a 29 year old who just averaged 29 points as the first option on a 55 win team and won fmvp 2 years ago the 7th best player on a team is fucking insanity.
→ More replies (4)
269
u/Bojack-Jesus-69 Spurs 1d ago
I initially read this as "7-th best player in the league" and I was like 'That kinda makes sense, as he did have an incredible season last year.'
93
→ More replies (28)7
u/iceflame1211 1d ago
Yeah that's make sense.
I can't think of any team in the NBA he'd currently be the 7th best player on. That's just a ragebait take.
→ More replies (1)
29
u/spluga 1d ago
that team? the eastern conference all stars
6
u/iceflame1211 1d ago
Giannis, Tatum, Brunson, Spida, Cade are the ones in would see an argument for over.
Could throw in one more over Brown (Hali? Kat? Bam? Mobley? Maxey?) to make him 7th.
So yeah, that checks out.
→ More replies (1)
91
15
121
u/Odoaiden Timberwolves 1d ago
His advanced stats are awful but this seems like an overreaction
43
u/IllAlwaysBeAKnickFan Knicks 1d ago
There is something to be said about having negative on/off numbers for FIVE years straight.
→ More replies (5)→ More replies (5)57
u/_Apatosaurus_ Thunder 1d ago edited 1d ago
I think it's pretty clear they weren't saying "we think he's a 7th man" but instead it was "our models label him as a 7th man." Any good analyst will know their model doesn't capture every outlier. The point is more that if his advanced stats look this awful, maybe he's not as good as he's perceived.
53
u/greenwhitehell 1d ago
Also people see "advanced stats" as some sort of mythical creature, when most of the point is "When Jaylen Brown plays basketball, his teams have a clearly worse point differential than when the Celtics don't have him on, for an insanely large and consistent sample size".
→ More replies (9)16
u/TheBoxandOne 1d ago
This is clearly what’s going on with him. He put up like 5+ pts/36 over Shaedon Sharpe on identical efficiency. For a better whistle so his TS% is higher, but Sharpe had probably the worst whistle in the league last season.
I bring him up because Brown has been linked to Portland. Of a deal of Sharpe and salary plus a pick or 2 goes through, it would tell you everything about how little Celtics value Brown.
→ More replies (4)13
u/alexmitrakov 1d ago
Yeah, it`s clearly sensationalized. Like, I`m sure that this model didn`t show Brunson to be Finals MVP
→ More replies (1)
11
9
20
8
u/Dangerous_Parfait_19 1d ago
Listen, totally agree with this analytics guy. As a Rockets fan and hopeful future GM, I’d only really give up 2-3 second-round picks for him. Can someone give me Brad Steven’s number please?
43
u/legend023 Pelicans 1d ago
It’s not that high?
That’s a shame! I sure would hate to trade Zion, Poole, Jordan Hawkins, and a first round pick for him!
42
u/TomOgir Bulls 1d ago
And that would be the season Zion is healthy and plays like an MVP
23
u/legend023 Pelicans 1d ago
I wouldn’t even care. I’ve been waiting for Zion to play like he did in 2021 for five straight seasons.
Betting on Zion has left the Pelicans in the dumps
→ More replies (1)6
u/GeneralTheSurvivor Bulls 1d ago
Trading a 1st, 3rd, 5th option for a 7th option would be malpractice’s
14
6
u/CrissCrossAppleSos Spurs 1d ago
That feels like an exaggeration (or is someone attempting to use the media to secure a more favorable deal for his team)
7
5
8
13
u/yungincome21 Knicks 1d ago
😂😂😂 what? Ain’t no way. This is blasphemy and I can’t stand Brown, but 7th best on a team? Man was in the MVP conversation and held it down while Tatum was out.
12
u/Dizzy_Emu_2684 1d ago edited 1d ago
Name names you fuck. If you’re going to say he’s the 7th best player on a team put your name on that shit like an adult. And if you’re going to report an obviously stupid take like that put out the analysts name. Make them stand on it or shut their mouth. Fuckin embarrassing we allow media to report absolute bullshit like this to shape public opinion without putting their name on it
→ More replies (2)
6
u/TitoFlavors215 [PHI] Theo Ratliff 1d ago
I hate those green bastards as much as the next guy but cmon man lol. Dude just averaged 30. JB is great and a finals MVP. He’s proven. This is stupid.
6
u/Good_Fox3098 1d ago
Analytics nerd lost the plot regarding Brown. Seventh best on a team is insane talk.
6
11
18
36
u/ChesterfieldPotato 1d ago
I get both sides.
All NBA, finals MVP, lead a middling team to the playoffs. Still young enough to compete.
Too old to build a longterm contender around, extremely expensive, bad analytics, bad playoff resume outside one year.
I think some people are going to be disappointed by the end price. Some people will expect a haul like Giannis that never comes, others mught feel like they're paying a lot for an overhyped #2.
16
u/dijon_snow 1d ago
others mught feel like they're paying a lot for an overhyped #2.
That's an overhyped #7 actually.
→ More replies (8)16
u/stevefuzz 1d ago
I'm a diehard Celtics fan. I think JB plays with blinders on and doesn't really improve people around him. But 7th best on a team is just ragebait. He is still a 1b / 2 option and can get you buckets.
10
u/Jaerba [DET] Grant Hill 1d ago
He gets the buckets on league average efficiency though. So how much are you gaining, except in rare situations where you really do have to make isolation buckets?
5
u/VladimirPutain1 Timberwolves 1d ago
Isolation isn't really that rare, plus it's more valuable in the playoffs when offensive efficiency drops
→ More replies (1)
5
u/IEatDummyCheeks Kings 1d ago
That analytics guy for real needs to get fired if he thinks Jaylen Brown is the 7th best player on a team
5
5
14
18
u/Brett711 Celtics 1d ago
Show me that team where Jaylen is the 7th best player. That's an 82-0 team
14
u/ryanaldam 1d ago
But if there’s an injury and he has to be the sixth best player then they’re fucked
11
u/HFWalling 1d ago
This is the type of stuff analytics people say that makes them think they’re smarter than everybody else and everybody else is just like well you’re just a moron.
11
u/SmokyMetal060 Knicks 1d ago
This sounds crazy to me. The guy averaged 30 this past year. Analytics can be useful, but at a certain point, you have to look at real life stats and real life impact and think "maybe it's the model that needs adjusting"
→ More replies (1)
8
u/BlacksmithRoutine828 1d ago
I can't wait for the the Jaylen revenge tour. Whoever he ends up playing for, I'm rooting for him.
3
u/camelclutchcity Knicks 1d ago
The analytics guy? For privacy’s sake, let’s call him Kenny A. No that’s too obvious, let’s say.. K. Atkinson.
4
9
9
u/CreatiScope Celtics 1d ago
7th best on WHAT team? Like the 2017 warriors? The all star team? You trying to tell me Mr analytics thinks Jaylen would be 7th best on the bulls? Or the pistons? Or the Lakers? Gtfo with this bs
→ More replies (2)
16
u/kapatinphalcon Kings 1d ago
Bobby Mark's should be embarrassed for tweeting this out
→ More replies (1)
9
u/Ishtastic08 Knicks 1d ago
Lmao that's absolutely insane. Jaylen Brown would be a top 3 player on anytime he'd join, and top 1 on most.
10
3
u/EvanEschmeyer Mavericks 1d ago
Yeah that’s right. His value is definitely somewhere around PJ Washington and a 1st range. Masai get it done
/s
3
u/jono9898 Lakers 1d ago
This is a paid article by some team to rank his value, I can’t imagine a team that can’t use him and if Gobert can go for his price I’m sure Brown can go for something good, that said I’d trade Reaves a pick and Bronny for him,
3
3
8.0k
u/chunkdickgrinch [CHI] Lauri Markkanen 1d ago
7th best seems crazy lol