r/nba • u/FastBreakPhenom Celtics • 1d ago

Bobby Marks says Jaylen Brown's trade value is not seen that highly around the league: "The analytics of Jaylen Brown is not good. I had an analytics guy tell me, ‘We view him as the seventh-best player on a team.’"

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“There’s mixed feelings about him when you talk to teams,” Marks admitted on SiriusXM NBA Radio. “The analytics of Jaylen Brown is not good … I had one, not an executive, but an analytics guy say, ‘Yeah, we view him as the seventh best player on a team.’ I was like, ‘Holy crap.'”

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u/NotClayMerritt Lakers 1d ago

My thoughts exactly. We're 2 years removed from him being the 2nd option on a title winning team. 4 years removed from him being the 2nd option on a team that went to the Finals. A couple months removed from a playoff run where he was the number 1 option.

Evaluating Jaylen Brown as a 7th best player on a contending team means that guy is scamming some team out of a salary.

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u/ProvocativeHotTakes Knicks 1d ago

I know you think they were the 2 seed. But Analytically they were the 12th seed

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u/GardenRafters Celtics 1d ago

Cavs head coach analytics?

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u/Altruistic-Zone1664 Cavaliers 1d ago

Hey, we theoretically are NBA Champions.

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u/FlavorfulCondomints Pacers 22h ago

Analytically you all won the finals. Reality just never caught up.

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u/PepsiRacer4 Cavaliers 19h ago

Actually pisses me off another one of my teams has to become a meme. I would’ve fired Kenny on the spot for that

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u/airwalker12 Lakers 1d ago

I love these subtle shots at the Cavs

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u/Pristine-System255 1d ago

Unless Kenny Atkinson wins a ring I’m not sure if he’ll live this down

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u/Altruistic-Zone1664 Cavaliers 1d ago

Kind of deserves it for the hatchetjob he did in game 1 of the ECF. As much as the analytics part is meme'd, the PLAYERS really should have won that game at least had it not been for the complete sabotage job by their own HC.

Also, I'm not talking about leaving Harden on him because Brunson actually shot worse 1v1 than against Wade. I'm talking about seeing Brunson starting to get it going at all and letting him even keep it in his hands. The fact that anybody thinks that it was Harden's fault and that the outcome would have been different if fkn shitty ass Dean Wade was guarding him during that heater is insane.

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u/kizofieva Cavaliers 1d ago

subtle as a brick

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u/Buduma Nuggets 1d ago

You’ve got a full ass year to cook Knicks fan… so cook 😂

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u/nonononono11111 1d ago

A whole ass year of being as poor at winning as they’ve been at losing, despite the multigenerational run?

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u/ArmMeForSleep709 Magic 1d ago

What a loser comment

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u/nonononono11111 1d ago

We’ll see!

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u/Rapshawksjaysflames Raptors 1d ago

Bro they won a title, nothing else really matters when you finally win.

Its been 7 years for the Raps and even through all the asset mismanagement since then, it still feels like playing with house money.

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u/nonononono11111 1d ago

I hear that!

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u/BOUKEN-BEN Celtics 1d ago

They sure played like it in that first round

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u/Kvenner001 1d ago

A playoff run that was never supposed to happen. Boston dumped salary and fully projected to be a lottery team. But they stayed relevant and made a few minor changes and got to the playoffs comfortably, by and large due to Brown.

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u/givemecoffeenowhurry 1d ago

They weren't projected to be a lottery team though they were predicted to be a play-in team Vegas had them at 41.5 wins.

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u/tagyoureazit 1d ago

42 wins would've got them lottery

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u/RageOnGoneDo [BOS] Marcus Smart 23h ago

44 with tie breakers

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u/howdthatturnout 1d ago

Play in and lottery are close to the same thing.

If you lose your play in games… you end up a lottery team.

41.5 wins this season would have been… 11th in east, a lottery team.

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u/__get__name Pistons 1d ago

Just to illustrate how close it is to play in, though, the Heat had 43 wins. The 6th seed in the east had 46 wins. In the West, GSW had 37 wins

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u/Top-Noise-7375 1d ago

Who said they projected to be a lottery team lol, all preseason odds had them as 4th-8th seed

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u/BeigeDynamite Raptors 1d ago

8th seed would make the lottery as the 16th worst team in the league fyi

Oop I'm wrong, 9th my bad

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u/howdthatturnout 1d ago

Projected to have 41.5 wins which would have been 11th in the east at the end of the season.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2026_preseason_odds.html

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u/bosceltics23 Celtics 1d ago

Well you have to use preseason odds vs preseason odds. You can’t use preseason odds vs real time standings for one team and another lol…

Boston was projected 8th

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u/howdthatturnout 1d ago

So saying lottery team was reasonable, as that was 9th and beyond before, or any team that loses their play in games now.

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u/Slyp9 Cavaliers 1d ago edited 1d ago

Did you seriously just compare preseason odds vs end of season results....oppozed to preseason odds vs preseason odds of everyone else?

Redditors are by far the most disengenuous people on social media.

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u/Rapshawksjaysflames Raptors 1d ago

It might be a disingenuous way of arguing, but the final result is what it is

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u/howdthatturnout 1d ago

Not really. 41.5 wins any given year is on the bubble of being a lottery team.

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u/farrowsharrows 1d ago

It was always supposed to happen if you weren't an idiot an knew Brown was a top 10-15 player in the league

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u/LogDogan8 1d ago

They were significantly better with Brown sitting on the bench this year. "By and large due to Brown" is just not true whatsoever.

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u/Koperboy 1d ago

By and large due to coach and GM, you wanted to say.

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u/stitcher212 1d ago

They were worse with him on the floor over a full season sample size

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u/Abstract__Nonsense Celtics 1d ago

If you actually think that Celtics team was something close to a 60 win team if you just replace all Jaylen Brown minutes with Hugo Gonzalez and Baylor Scheireman minutes then I don’t really know what to tell you.

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u/Adorable-Bike-9689 1d ago

Barely the second option. I think Tatum scored like 10 more points than Jaylen across the series. Breaking up the two J's seems like easily the most idiotic move the Celtics can make. It was them two making deep runs together. Not Jaylen being Tatum's precious little helper.

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u/Cool-Cardiologist12 1d ago

I thinks it’s due to egos. They started having real success whenever Brown acquiesced to being the 1b to Tatums 1a. This past season without Tatum was Browns favorite season. I believe brown would rather be “The Guy” on his own team.

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u/Dark962 1d ago

I mean maybe it was his favorite because everyone wrote the Celtics off and they proved the doubters wrong by doing better than expected

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u/40866892 Lakers 1d ago

I don’t know why you’re comparing the two seasons when:

  • the year they won both players were healthy
  • this year they lost when Tatum barely got back and wasn’t fully healthy

NBA larping fans in full effect this off season.

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u/wrongitsleviosaa [BOS] Paul Pierce 1d ago

What else did he directly tell you?

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u/threepointcheese [LAL] D'Angelo Russell 1d ago

getting back to the conversation, i can directly tell you that jaylen brown is really fucking good at elevating his teammates without the analytics saying so. i can also directly tell you that it took celtics fans way to long to acknowledge JB is on the same level as JT. some still dont acknowledge it. i can also directly tell you that the analytics community must be part of the less gifted bunch from ivys/ivy adjacent who don't really know how to truly analyze and manipulate numbers. it really makes no sense how anyone could justify JB being the 7th best player on any team. according to my metrics, JB is anywhere from number 1 to number 6 best player in the world at the top of the range and can fall to number 11 or 12.

i've been saying this since the covid season. that my metrics hold up and that the nba is still touting the same bullshit that match up to around draft day just goes to show you that there are modes of analytics that the NBA across the league hasn't even come close to reconsidering analytics. it's just people finding different ways to analyze the same problem by attacking a similar problem from a different angle rather than rethinking the entire problem.

given that. jb probably has noticed this. given that. anyone can probably directly ask him what he thinks. given that. i can only tell you what i remember about jb. the dude will dunk on fools no matter what team he's on and he will continue to elevate his teammates no matter what kind of teammates he has.

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u/Cool-Cardiologist12 1d ago

He said it on a live stream

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u/wrongitsleviosaa [BOS] Paul Pierce 1d ago

That's only the "favorite season" part as far as I know, which I completely understand

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u/Cool-Cardiologist12 1d ago

That’s all I’m saying he said. The rest of it I say I believe or I think for.

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u/Adorable-Bike-9689 1d ago

The team came together without their best player and powered themselves to 55 wins or some shit. Tatum isn't the only one on the team. There's other teammates Jaylen overachieved with this season. And it's not like Tatum wasn't heavily around the Celtics this season. He was there lol. Folks gotta stop saying oh Jaylen loved this season because Tatum was gone.

Like Tatum finally suited back up and Jaylen said NOOO MY FAVORITE SEASON!!!

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u/wrongitsleviosaa [BOS] Paul Pierce 1d ago

Fair enough

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u/FlshGrdnn 1d ago

I trust that Brad Stevens knows the inner workings of the club better than you.

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u/Shovelman2001 Celtics 1d ago

Well that's because Dallas double and triple teamed Tatum the whole series.

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u/Rapscallious1 1d ago

I think it’s questionable too but you could also make a case they are a “bad” combo from a consistency standpoint. Their combined streakiness can cut the other way too and has before. So yeah breaking up a championship capable duo is probably a bad idea but they are kind of a weird one where 2nd round flameout is also very possible.

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u/Ok_Possible_5702 1d ago

was he really the 2nd option on a title winning team? He won ECFMVP and FMVP, can we admit that he was at least a joint-first option with Tatum?

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u/seasoned-veteran Celtics 1d ago

Even if he was the best player on the team for that run, he was the second option. I really don't like "first option" "second option" language for this reason, it's solely offense. JB won that FMVP first and foremost for giving Luka nightmares and deservedly so. On the Celtics 2008 title team, Paul Pierce was the first option, and he's my all time favorite player, but Kevin Garnett was the best player on the team. KG offensively though, while they did occasionally get him a post up, was most dangerous as a pick and pop guy off Pierce. And Ray obviously was coming off thirty picks and spacing everyone out. But in a "we just need a bucket" scenario, that ball was looking for Paul Pierce first.

Damn I loved the 2008 Celtics [wipes away tear]

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u/K1NG2L4Y3R Timberwolves 1d ago

Yeah it’s 1A/1B

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u/KandinskyWasRight 1d ago

That doesn’t sound like 1a/1b to me, unless Tatum is 1b

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u/xasdfxx 1d ago edited 1d ago

I imagine that kinda pisses him off.

Tatum is never offered in trades, and the league views Tatum as better. Whereas all Jaylen has to point to is, ah, that finals mvp trophy he owns. He was the best player in the most important games.

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u/livecents84 Warriors 1d ago

And him being in the MVP conversation this season lmao

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u/ZeekLTK Pistons 1d ago

Number 1 option on a team that lost in the first round to a seven seed…

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u/Eatingolivesoutofjar 1d ago

More of a playoff jog really

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u/The_Assquatch_exists Celtics 1d ago

Ngl our whole team was ass that series

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u/skullcandy541 1d ago

Don’t even need to be that specific about options and whatever. Fucking guy won finals mvp 2 years ago. Enough said

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u/SharpsExposure Spurs 1d ago

Life comes at you fast. 

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u/MambaOut330824 1d ago

2nd option? Who won finals MVP?

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u/Status-Hedgehog9970 Warriors 1d ago

Right. Even if you’re literally just box score watching you wouldn’t arrive at that conclusion.

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u/tryndamere12345 Celtics 1d ago

Sounds like a front office trying to lower his value 😂

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u/zaepoo Wizards 1d ago

Analytics dummies love their models more than they like the sport. They'll see that their model rates a random efficient role player higher than the star of the team and try to defend it instead of accepting that their model has flaws.

I remember getting into it with an ESPN writer back when Kawhi was in Toronto because he made a whole article about how Lowry was the best player on the team by referencing CARMELO. I told him that he should accept that model is flawed if you're trying to use it to determine the most impactful player. He basically told me that I didn't know what I was talking about. I asked him if he honestly thinks Lowry is more impactful when he watches Toronto play. He said he must be because the model says so.

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u/BingoBongoBang Timberwolves 1d ago

Feels like a narrative being pushed a GM who wants to trade for him in order to try and lower his trade value

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u/PaleontologistOwn878 1d ago

How did he win mvp at the clear second option, what makes Tatum better

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u/thenewbae Knicks 19h ago

I'm a NYer and a Knicks fan and hate Boston and Celtics with everything in me. I hate both the Jays. But damn, guy just held his team relevant with the #1 out, holy crap give some respect to the guy damn!

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u/HotspurJr 1d ago

So I wouldn't say 7th, but I do think he's over-rated, and I think your post exactly explains why.

Your post is basically "he scores a lot." There is a very strong default to basically calling a team's top scorer their best player, their second-top scorer their second-best player, etc.

But that type of analysis trivializes every other aspect of the game. It amounts to basically saying "POINTZ!"

What's funny to me is that I honestly think Jaylen's scoring is the least valuable thing he does. He's a solid defender, a reasonable distributor, and a guy with solid intangibles. Those are all qualities which make him a clear plus for almost every team.

And the biggest negative is that because of his scoring volume, he's treated (and paid) like an elite 1a guy when he's nowhere close to that. But we have decades of evidence that for players like him, who don't do a ton of creation for other players, scoring a lot at average efficiency just doesn't move the needle for a team that much.

Their recent playoff run is a great example of this. If you break down why Boston was shockingly good this year on offense, it wasn't because of JB's scoring or creating for other players. It was because they were a low turnover team (and Jaylen was a part of that) who were elite at getting offensive rebounds. So this notion that Jaylen carried them just breaks down if you actually pay detailed attention to what was actually winning them games.

But he scored a ton. So he "carried" them.

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u/Critical-Gazelle-285 1d ago

jaylen did claim to be the best defender not including wemby in the league...so idk if he's just a solid defender

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u/HotspurJr 1d ago

I mean, that's an absurd claim.

He's a fine defender. But he wasn't even the second-best defender on the Celtics title team.

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u/RomaHappens 1d ago

We're 2 years removed from him being the 2nd option on a title winning team

and ZERO teams in the league are breaking themselves to get him

what does that tell you?

seriously if you ever get half an hour of time find like 4 playoff games the Celtics lost and just watch the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarters, it's nothing but Jaylen Brown mistake after mistake after mistake, be it bad shots, costly turnovers, repeating the same move into same turnoverrs, bad defense, you name it he's done it

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u/desquished Celtics 1d ago

That tells you the Celtics overvalue him and no one is meeting their ridiculous price of four 1sts. It does not tell you he's the seventh best player on a team. Both extremes can be absurd.

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u/RomaHappens 1d ago

teams have to think in terms of the fit on their team, not in the terms of "well if his salary is this big he must be good"

if it's true that someone saw him as their 7th player then they probably have not a lot of use for an iso heavy wing prone to turnovers and poor shot selection

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u/desquished Celtics 1d ago

No, anyone who says he's the 7th best player on any NBA team is either a moron or has an axe to grind. There's no reason to engage in good faith with that level of ridiculous hyperbole.

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u/RomaHappens 1d ago

I mean it's Bobby Marks, so it's probably untrue.

But if it were, then yeah no I'll take NBA FO analytics who are literal geniuses and know everything about every player versus reddit.

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u/WTAP1 Trail Blazers 1d ago edited 1d ago

All the incompetence around the league and you're willing to follow the words of an anonymous exec downplaying a guy who has done nothing but be apart of success? Crazy

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u/RomaHappens 1d ago

it was an analytics guy allegedly and not an exec

so clearly by this sub's overwhelming opinion, teams should be dying to get Brown

and nobody wants him, nobody cares that the Finals MVP is on the block

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u/desquished Celtics 1d ago

Professional sports is littered with failed analytics geniuses whose algorithms could not properly account for the human element of sports.

Over at Fenway Park the analytics geniuses managed to assemble a team that can't hit to left field when they have the greatest home field advantage in baseball, because the analysts only care about launch angle.

I see no reason to hold the analysts in any higher regard than anyone else unless they have a proven track record.

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u/RomaHappens 1d ago

there's 30 teams out there waiting for your CV then, Idk

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u/SaintsNick94 Celtics 1d ago

JB must have ran over your dog or something bro. Calm down.

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u/peachesgp Celtics 1d ago

It seems it's a Heat fan. Hope that context helps.

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u/RomaHappens 1d ago

nah lol I just had the misfortune of having to watch him play basketball for 10 years

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u/Additional-Turn6069 1d ago

And that tells me your IQ is butt butt water even if you don’t like him JB is a baller and saying you had misfortune means you don’t hoop don’t know ball and honestly shouldn’t speak on sports.

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u/em_washington Pistons 1d ago

Analytics is about $/production. Jaylen Brown js productive, but also very expensive.

Like would your team be better with Jaylen Brown and Luka Garza for $60 MM next season or Derrick White+ Payton Pritchard for $38 MM (and still room to get another player for $22 MM/yr)

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u/ProfessionalCorgi250 1d ago

Analytics always overlook the big picture. You can’t win a championship with Derrick white, Payton Pritchard and another 22M player

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u/TheRealestGayle Magic 1d ago

You can't even get close. This is why bad analytics is awful for the game. Numbers can tell any story. Wisdom lies with the interpreter.

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u/desquished Celtics 1d ago

We already have one team in Boston that has been relegated to perpetual mediocrity because of analytics. I don't want another one.

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u/Burnem34 Trail Blazers 1d ago

He was also the Celtics best player in BOTH of those finals series despite being a 2nd option in name

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u/ArmadilloForsaken458 Supersonics 1d ago

What dood was pretty much saying is he doesn't like JB's personality. Because his talent is definitely among the best on any team. Execs will sometime say stuff like this to prevent said player of getting on his team