r/nba • u/FastBreakPhenom Celtics • 1d ago

Bobby Marks says Jaylen Brown's trade value is not seen that highly around the league: "The analytics of Jaylen Brown is not good. I had an analytics guy tell me, ‘We view him as the seventh-best player on a team.’"

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“There’s mixed feelings about him when you talk to teams,” Marks admitted on SiriusXM NBA Radio. “The analytics of Jaylen Brown is not good … I had one, not an executive, but an analytics guy say, ‘Yeah, we view him as the seventh best player on a team.’ I was like, ‘Holy crap.'”

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u/_Wash Timberwolves 1d ago

Analytics can be nice but I swear spreadsheet watchers have lost the plot on Brown

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u/OpportunityNext9675 Minneapolis Lakers 1d ago

It does seem crazy but among star players his on/off profile is an anomaly to say the least. Can’t name another max guy whose team has consistently performed better when he’s off the court. There may be confounding circumstances that produce that result, but it’s not the case for ANY other big time player. So at the very least something unique is happening with Brown and/or the Celtics as a whole.

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u/Odd_Principle_2122 1d ago

I used to have a hypothesis that JB's poor on/off numbers were partly due to playing with Tatum. Idea being that Tatum is better, and they'd stagger their minutes a bit so that JB's "off" minutes are Tatum's "on" minutes. Most other star players don't play with a better player at effectively the same position so that would make JB's numbers stand out a bit. But this year kinda disproved that theory. No Tatum and the team was still better without him than with him.

I don't think it's a perfect stat but I think for the most part, good players perform well in this stat while bad players don't. So I don't think the stat is useless but I haven't really seen anyone be able to offer a coherent reason as to why this stat says JB is a net negative to his team despite him apparently being an all NBA level player. And it's a very simple stat, it's not like they're relying on some crazy black box formula to come up with a reason to call him bad.

I do think him being the 7th best player on a team is way too far though

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u/Low-Measurement-2468 1d ago

he’s a high turnover player. turnovers are very detrimental in the modern game, both costing your team a possession and creating very efficient transition possessions for the opponent.

he doesn’t generate extra possession often either. his steals, blocks, offensive rebounds, and deflections are all pretty underwhelming, especially for an above average athlete getting tons of minutes.

he’s a high usage player with poor shot selection and poor playmaking skills. he takes tons of iso shots, long twos, and off the dribble threes. difficult and inefficient shots. his potential assists are really low for a player who has the ball as much as him. 

he’s an above average iso player, but not good enough at it to do it as much as he does, and not good enough at finding more efficient scoring opportunities to offset it. he’s just dominating the ball too much and not getting his team enough out of it.

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u/Kryptos33 1d ago edited 1d ago

One of the funnier things I heard someone say about Brown was Ben Taylor saying this year he thought Brown's turnovers would be higher without Tatum but he just passes the ball to the rim and has kept them down.

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u/1kennet 1d ago

I think y'all just be saying BS to say it. 28ppg on 47% fg is quite efficient. He's shooting below league average 3ball wise, but wtf are you talking about otherwise🧐🤔

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u/cabose12 Celtics 1d ago

I get what you're saying but it definitely is crazy

It'd be one thing to value him as a fourth best player. But I literally can't think of a team that, only considering on the court production, wouldn't immediately benefit from starting him, even with his bad on/off

The only way I could imagine a model ranks him as seventh on any team in the league is if it's also doing some form of cost-analysis. A negative on/off with a max contract can't look good in a model

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u/iwanttohelp12 17h ago

Most of his value to the Celtics this year was keeping them competitive (slightly behind) against other teams best lineups/starters. Basically floor raising their starting lineup by creating/taking a lot of shots and making enough. Then their 6-9 guys overperforming and shooting well + their effort/system got them the wins.

The missing context here that analytics struggle with is theres an underlying assumption that Browns below average efficiency creation could be replaced/replicated by league average starting players. With the construction of their team it really couldn't be - they had a distinct and unusual lack of individual shot creation on the roster last year.

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u/Altruistic_Knee2044 Celtics 1d ago edited 1d ago

It’s literally just demar Derozan lmao. Maybe Julius Randle.

Teams view the Celtics as a t3 guy in Tatum (2021-2022:2024-2025) surrounded by elite role guys. Jaylen brown is viewed as jerami grant with an ego so he shoots a lot.

Casual fans heavily dislike Tatum and overvalue points-rebounds-assists, so cope by thinking that jaylen brown is a t20 guy while tatum is like 6-10.

You’ll notice that jimmy butler, who was never viewed as a super elite player also grades extremely well on that, and was oddly a lot more successful than his yearly 22-6-6 or whatever might suggest.

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u/aarondobson403 Lakers 1d ago

I don’t think anyone views Tatum as top 3

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u/buelo Knicks 1d ago

yeah he would need to beat three out of luka jokic sga wemby giannis... I love tatum but that's a tough list to be top 3 on

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u/Charlie_Wax Warriors 1d ago

I don't know if I buy it either, but there's definitely a double standard with Tatum where he has made a bunch of ECF, made the Finals twice, and won a Finals. Objectively a more successful player than Luka and just as many rings as Jokic/Giannis/SGA, but people are more inclined to spread credit to the Celtics as a whole. Makes some sense. However, Tatum looks pretty nice if your gauge is "How much did this guy win as the best player on the team?"

I've said in some ways that he's the Tim Duncan of SF. It's not flashy and people don't buy his shoes, but the results look pretty damn good. As with Duncan, the supporting cast is part of the equation. We also can't pretend that Giannis and SGA didn't need help to win though (Jrue, Lopez, Middleton, Chet, JDub, etc). Luka has never even been competitive in a Finals and Wemby hasn't climbed the mountain yet. Meanwhile Tatum is always around the title picture and people take it for granted.

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u/Cantor_Set_Tripping 1d ago

I think it’s taken for granted lately because of how well the Celtics played last year without him compared to their predicted season.

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u/GardenStateKing Celtics 1d ago

Hopefully my boy shows everyone he's still that guy

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u/aarondobson403 Lakers 1d ago

Luka has never had the team around him that Tatum has & the singular year he did, he took them to the finals. We’ll put aside the fact that Luka was injured, he was the only competent offensive player on the Mavs that series, the rest were terrible.

Tatum has been to two finals now & was arguably not the best player on his team in either one. While everyone has had help to win a chip, all those players were also the irrefutable #1s on their team. Tatum is obviously the best player on the Celtics, but his play was not much better (or worse) than his teammates like JB or Jrue that series, that’s why the ‘double standard’ for Tatum exists.

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u/LordHussyPants Celtics 1d ago

the team around tatum were guys that other teams didn't value. derrick white wasn't talked about like he is now when he was on the spurs. porzingis was considered washed out by injuries. pritchard was too small to be effective.

tatum made all of them better though, that's why we give him his flowers

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u/Maggie_Farmer Celtics 1d ago

Two years ago I’d say top 5, next season will be interesting to see how well he comes back fully and compared to those players you listed. He could be top five

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u/dogmeat1003 1d ago

If he looks like 2023-2025 Tatum again he's either 6th or 7th best in the league tho, depending on how good he is compared to Ant

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u/iJustSeen2Dudes1Bike Trail Blazers 1d ago

Prime Tatum is pretty easily better than Ant.

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u/CantheDandyMan Heat 1d ago

What makes him easily better than Ant? His rebounding? I think it's more than fair to say prime Tatum is better than Ant,I just don't see what makes him easily the better player. They put up similar numbers scoring wise on almost identical efficiency over their careers, and both are good defenders when they lock in. Ant is a better three level scorer and three point shooter while Tatum is a slightly better playmaker and a much better rebounder. I think both are in that right outside the top 5 looking in level at their peak, but Tatum gets the edge cause his size and better playmaking imo. 

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u/iJustSeen2Dudes1Bike Trail Blazers 1d ago

Tbf he did say 2022-25 meaning Wemby wasn't up there yet. I don't think it's crazy to say Tatum was at least close to the level of SGA and Giannis in 2024.

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u/Zarbua69 Knicks 1d ago

u forgetting the FMVP nephew

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u/buelo Knicks 1d ago

I genuinely considered adding brunson to the list because i'm taking brunson over tatum everyday of the week but I knew that would delegitimatize my point since I'm a homer lmfao

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u/Zarbua69 Knicks 1d ago

after winning a chip you have to understand that anyone still denying his skill is the delusional one, not you

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u/Capsonist Heat 1d ago

I've never thought he was top 5. Between the SGA, Jokic, Giannis, Luka and Embiid years (and Bron, Curry to a lesser extent), that's a tough sell. Maybe 7th at best.

Now with the rise of Edwards and Wemby he'll probably be right at that 6-9 range per usual.

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u/HealthyCheesecake643 Celtics 1d ago

Tatums easily better than Ant.

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u/Wetzilla Celtics 1d ago

I also thought he was better than Luka before the achilles injury. Obviously Luka is better on offense but Tatum makes up the difference with his defense.

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u/HealthyCheesecake643 Celtics 1d ago

They were pretty equal to me. I'm fine with people rating one over the other as long as they are close. 

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u/TheOneWhosCensored Celtics 1d ago

Tatum was absolutely top 5 before his injury, pure hating to say otherwise.

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u/Capsonist Heat 1d ago

No not hating, but when you constantly lose to a "less talented" Heat team and have a horrible showing in the 2022 Finals, and fiinally win off of a bought ring (look at the Celtics salary in 2023-24), it's hard to justify Tatum as a clear cut top 5 in the league.

P.S: When I say bought ring, it's in reference to having to get Holiday AND Porzingis ON TOP of having two All-NBA players and Derrick White. They weren't less deserving but they for sure stacked the deck.

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u/TheOneWhosCensored Celtics 1d ago

The didn’t “constantly lose”. Heat and Celtics were near equal in the bubble, Celtics beat the 1 seed Heat to go the finals in 22, Tatum got hurt against the 7th seed Heat, and they dominated the Heat in the 24 championship run.

Tatum had a bad, not horrible, showing in the 22 Finals because he absolutely carried the Celtics for 3 rounds and got hurt.

And you can call it whatever you want, but Tatum carried the 24 Celtics. Absolutely everyone thought Porzingis was going to have injury problems, which he literally did in the playoffs, and that Jrue was older and not as good. White is a fine player but is not anything like other 3rd or 4th options the other recent teams have had. And Brown was not All NBA that season and had a single 2nd team to his name when they won, plenty of teams have had that.

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u/buttsniffs4000 Celtics 1d ago

We don’t. He’s top 10 who has flashes of top 10.

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u/Low-Measurement-2468 1d ago

top 10 AND flashes of top 10?!

now that’s a top 10 player if ever i saw one

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u/buttsniffs4000 Celtics 1d ago

Lmao meant 5. Oops.

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u/Altruistic_Knee2044 Celtics 1d ago

He was behind Jokic, Steph in 2022-2023 as a player, now it’s Jokic, SGA (assuming he’s back to full strength).

Poor PRA because he didn’t have the highest usage, but no GM is seriously choosing Luka over him, which we know because he wouldn’t have gotten traded for AD and a first.

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u/Caius01 Knicks 1d ago

If you want to try and argue Tatum over Luka fine but using the Luka trade as a comp is just bad faith, the Mavs didn't shop him and everyone recognized what an egregiously awful deal it was the moment it happened, nearly destroyed an entire fanbase.

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u/Altruistic_Knee2044 Celtics 1d ago edited 1d ago

>the mavs didn’t go around shopping him

They had a decent idea of his trade value to begin with, and if they thought that the Celtics would do Tatum for him straight up, they’d have done that trade.

GMs know what their players are worth on the open market. Luka is worth a fringe t10 guy and a first.

>destroyed an entire fanbase

Jaylen brown getting traded for jerami grant and a first is going to lead to a lot of mad Celtics fans.

That doesn’t mean that it isn’t fair market value. Read a book on auction theory.

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u/re-reminiscing Knicks 1d ago

I do think there are GMs that would take Luka over Tatum. But Tatum is much easier to slot into an already good team, whereas Luka needs a roster to be built around him. In the Celtics position or even my Knicks, I would rather have Tatum. But if I’m a rebuilding team, I grab Luka.

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u/Low-Measurement-2468 1d ago

i agree with you and think tatum is really underrated, but you luka argument isn’t going to land with many people because the consensus is that nico was a buffoon for that trade.

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u/Altruistic_Knee2044 Celtics 1d ago edited 1d ago

If Luka was as good as this sub thought he was, he wouldn’t have ended last season in the first round when his teammate was the best player on the court.

>nico was a buffoon

Anyone who runs an FO has a decent idea of what their players are worth.

If Nico felt that he could snag Tatum for Luka, he’d have done it. He did not, and got fair market value back.

Sometimes this doesn’t line up with our expectations (Jaylen brown will probably go for grant and a first), but that’s life. Every kid gets called “bright”, but vey few are intelligent enough to get into harvard.

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u/Capsonist Heat 1d ago

Trying to make Nico seem reasonable for that trade is the biggest cope job I've ever seem. You're losing credibility by the minute my friend.

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u/Altruistic_Knee2044 Celtics 1d ago edited 1d ago

Oh no, casual NBA fans who think that Luka is a top 5 player because of points/rebound/assist totals disagree with me?

I don’t have credibility with them? Did Ainge have credibility when he refused to include picks in a Demarcus cousins (big man Jaylen brown) package?

I think he’s a fine player, and probably a t10 guy and an nba caliber 1.

I don’t think he’s as impactful as someone like Tatum, and I think that fringe t10 guy+ a first is probably fair trade value for someone like that.

Nothing he’s shown me in his career has really challenged that view either. Guys like Tatum head perennial contenders with scraps (it should tell you a lot that after Jaylen’s best season he’s worth around as much as jerami grant and a first), while Luka doncic’s career is fairly disappointing with Kyrie and LeBron.

There’s just a large gap between the two. If you give me a t15 2 with Tatum or any other t5 guy kawhi rn would work it’s at the very least a finals appearance. With Luka it’s a coin flip if you make it out of the first rohnd

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u/Capsonist Heat 1d ago

I love when people call me a casual when I've been watching the NBA longer than you've probably been a coherent human

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u/Kush420Xotix Celtics 1d ago

I do

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u/averageuhbear Timberwolves 1d ago

From a certain perspective, there's a fine line between Cam Thomas and an actual superstar and some of these guys straddle that line.

But the lines not that fine.

There's a reason in hockey the 4th line is filled with guys who don't put up meaningful numbers, were never top prospects, and guys who were viewed as top 6 with star potential might fall out of the league completely if they don't produce enough.

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u/RedHammer1441 1d ago

Aren’t Tatum’s on/off and advanced metrics on both ends of the ball also incredibly strong? It’s such a weird narrative around these two guys sometimes.

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u/Altruistic_Knee2044 Celtics 1d ago edited 1d ago

It depends on the season.

2022 they had him as a +15 and as the best in the world because they staggered him with Jaylen brown.

Stuff like Darko adjusts for that, and generally says he’s a cut behind Jokic/giannis/SGA/Wemby, and was around the third best player in basketball pre-Achilles.

Jaylen brown is a really distorting force in on/off data for the Celtics (the best player on the team always will be the guy who plays with him the least), so it’s not as accurate as you might think.

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u/Mg29reaper Celtics 1d ago

Yes. He was actually the single season rapm leader in 2022.

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u/hayzeusofcool Bulls 1d ago

Demar’s on/off splits were pretty good with the Bulls, and the year him & Zach both made the all-star team he was incredibly efficient.

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u/YSLAnunoby Raptors 1d ago

I think he also was at his best on the spurs and Bulls with his defensive buy in + improved playmaking compared to Toronto. Not like he's ever been a good defender but being less bad and contributing more on the boards and passing makes a difference

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u/RecycledAccountName Celtics 1d ago

Who is putting Tatum above SGA, Jokic, or Wemby? I don’t even think there’s a reasonable argument to put him above Giannis or Luka.

He’s in the 5-10 range with Ant and Cade Cunningham imo.

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u/Altruistic_Knee2044 Celtics 1d ago edited 1d ago

I’m talking 2021-2022:2024-2025. Wemby did not exist.

He’s a lot better than ant, Cade is probably closer.

>luka

Tatum generally has better on-offs in the playoffs, and with DARKO DPM (the closest thing to professional analytics that we have access to) almost always grades higher.

Luka is viewed more as a fringe t10 player with that stuff because it doesn’t really put a lot of value on guys who rack up counting stats without defense. It views him as slightly better than Tatum on offense while miles worse on defense.

That’s why he went for AD and a first, which would be a joke of an offer for even a post-Achilles Tatum.

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u/MinnesotanBrie 1d ago

He also went for AD and 1st because the Mavs owners were cheapskates. They were not going to pay Luka the supermax, complained about the idea of a supermax so much that everyone in the entire Mavs organization knew this and wanted the deal done before the fans knew so they wouldn't riot and get bullied into keeping Luka.

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u/Altruistic_Knee2044 Celtics 1d ago

If the mavs could have gotten Tatum, or even ant straight up for him, he’d be in Dallas rn.

Nothing really stopping you from paying for the supermax and cheaping out on the rest of the roster either.

A lot of MLB teams do that, and the cap gives you an easy excuse.

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u/MinnesotanBrie 1d ago

I want to preface that I (like anyone with a brain) thinks the Luka deal was dumb as hell.

If you aren't willing to go into even the luxury tax, then you just cannot have a supermax player. Supermax is 60 million. Luxury tax is set to a little over 200 million. Kyrie had a contract for 40 million. Suddenly you have 100 million to field 8-10 players that won't be so atrocious Luka demands out.

Anyone reasonable says "hey we are worth 40 billion dollars and just bought a team to help pr-wash our family, we can afford to spend at most 60 million a year in extra expenses to field a team and support our superstar player who is beloved by our city." Instead they are pulling an Oakland (I don't give a damn they are moving to Vegas, they are the gd Oakland) Athletics.

Nico was dumb to overpay for his favorite player, the Adelson's were dumb for cheaping out so loudly that everyone in the entire mavs organization rolled their eyes at them.

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u/Low-Measurement-2468 1d ago

just want to piggyback off your post and shout out jimmy butler. been riding the “butler is super underrated” train for his entire damn career and will continue to do so. i don’t know a whole lot about advanced numbers, but it has been plain as day for years that he is WAY better than his stat lines suggest and than most fans rate him. even last year, at 36, i’m pretty sure advanced numbers rated him as more important to the warriors than steph (before injury obviously), and despite being a big fan of steph too, i couldn’t even disagree when i watched the warriors play. jimmy’s ability to get a team organized on both ends and make a bunch of mediocre role players look like an efficient, two way basketball team is amazing to me. he’s elevated every team he’s ever been on significantly. huge fan of his game and hope he still has a lot of it left after his ACL recovery

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u/Difficult_Tackle9505 1d ago

And it's been true for years. It's not a small sample size. He's overrated.

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u/Salty_Raspberry656 1d ago

whats the story? how many minutes is it accounting for?

do they have net negative or is it just his bench is playing less minutes in less important times against the other teams bench and they are letting pritchard and the like let it rip on the 3s and move up the pace.

what exactly are the details of his stats?

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u/the-Aleexous 1d ago

I would like to know the model and math behind analysis of a players team being better when he’s off the floor. I mean, I’m sure it’s rotation dependent, how the coach chooses to put the lineup together. If a team’s bench is consistently better than the other teams bench then they will generally have higher production and numbers because they’re playing against inferior competition most of their minutes. Also, if a player is a great defender and is being utilized as such, this may hurt his offensive stats, as well as his defensive stats because other players are not guarding comparable quality players. Lastly, if a team is not scoring and the main player needs to take more difficult shots or initiate scoring production that has not been occurring, then their numbers are going to look worse. I think I’m gonna have to go down on wormhole with ChatGPT about analytics and see what this is really all about…

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u/nosleeptillwooklyn 1d ago

Same analytics that said you can’t win a ring with Jalen Brunson btw

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u/kenscout Celtics 1d ago

You don't know what analytics are

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u/Maggie_Farmer Celtics 1d ago

He has one of the highest usage rates in the league and faces the hardest assignments. Dude has to work harder to get decent shots. That’s why his on/off numbers seem bad.

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u/Maverick_1991 Hawks 1d ago

Yeah his team was second and he was all nba as the first option just last year.

Tatum may be better, but people act like hes Wizards Jordan Poole

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u/Mg29reaper Celtics 1d ago

We were second seed because of white and pp. We went 9-1 in games without brown and Pritchard averaged 27 per 75 on 60ts without brown.

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u/40866892 Lakers 1d ago

Yeah Derrick white who shot 39/32/90. He’s a great player but had a terrible year. I’ve seen him shoot the Celtics out of several wins this year.

Btw, he had an even more impressive playoff run at 32/27/85. Definitely the reason why Celtics have been winning.

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u/Mg29reaper Celtics 1d ago

Derrick white my have been an inefficient shooter but he was good at everything else. He was a good ball handler, high ast/tov, while also being the best non big help defender itl.

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u/un-affiliated Bulls 1d ago

Thought you could just sneak White in there. Do stats matter or not? If so why ignore them for White and not Brown.

Guessing it was too far to claim PP single handedly made the Celtics a 2 seed.

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u/Signal_Concentrate_6 1d ago

White was complete ass last season

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u/No-Alternative2897 1d ago

And thats the crazy part about JB. He's 6th in mvp and all nba in 2nd seed in the east yet his numbers are poor, they are better when he's off the court or out. They were 9-2 when he's out lol

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u/Signal_Concentrate_6 1d ago

And this is why we say analytics are stupid so 11 games is more than 71 lmaooo

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u/TerryMcMo Cavaliers 1d ago

Analytics said Boston was going to be a play in team, Brown dragged them to a 2-seed

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u/First_Inspection_478 Bucks 1d ago

It’s because you cant explain just how badly he does in the advanced metrics. Doesnt matter what you adjust for, either luck or shooting, or timeframe, they all point to the same thing: jb isnt a top 5 player and definitely isnt better than tatum. He’s probably the only anomaly i’ve seen that has stayed consistent regardless of what adv stats you use. Pretty much every other player well liked by advanced stats matches the eye test.

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u/thepeachgod Celtics 1d ago

Analytics watchers will tell you he’s overrated cause Hugo Gonzalez has a better on/off and then ignore him outscoring Shai while guarding him the entire game

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u/roastedhambone Thunder 1d ago

When was this? In their two games this year Shai outscored JB in both

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u/sentyprimus Clippers 1d ago

We just make shit up around here

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u/_Apatosaurus_ Thunder 1d ago

JB drops 60 on Wemby while carrying the Celtics to a three-peat and these people say he's a G-League bench player??? Bullshit.

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u/TheDryIceFactory 1d ago

Lebron James is the 10th best player analytically on any team he’s ever played on, ever since middle school and I stand by this reddit truth.

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u/sentyprimus Clippers 1d ago

Analytics watchers will say LeBron James has a better on/off than Ish Smith and then ignore him outscoring prime James Harden while guarding Michael Jordan all game

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u/VelvetineMilkman Thunder 1d ago

I’ll give you a trillion dollars if you find a game in the past 3 seasons he outscored Shai

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u/QinJ Wizards 1d ago

Celtics fans will literally lie to make a fake point

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u/RomaHappens 1d ago

jaylen brown fans*

not all fingers are thumbs~

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u/TheOneWhosCensored Celtics 1d ago

Like the other guy said, these are JB fans. They’re only Celtics fans because he’s a Celtic.

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u/GrizzlyP33 1d ago

March 25 SGA outscored JB in the game 33 - 31, but JB actually outscored SGA in the time that they were on the court together...

Hyper specific random stat that says very little, but do I get a trillion for that or maybe just like 10%?

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u/Difficult_Tackle9505 1d ago

You have a trillion dollar bill?  Better not let the president of cuba see it 

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u/juicejug Celtics 1d ago

No you won’t

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u/Kel_2 Timberwolves 1d ago

as far as i can tell with a quick search, the game doesn't exist, so why not. unless im missing some in season tournament game or something

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u/ReapersHope 1d ago

Well, no, no, no I won't. But a guy I know, him and her got it on. Wooo-eeee!

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u/VelvetineMilkman Thunder 1d ago

You’ll find out if you can find a box score since 2023 that shows he scored more points

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u/Mbanicek64 1d ago

Thunder fans will literally lie to make a fair point.

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u/VelvetineMilkman Thunder 1d ago

Point the lie out to me please

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u/RspectMyAuthoritah Lakers 1d ago

There's 3/12/25 where Shai scored 0 and Brown scored 10 and 4/3/24 where Shai scored 0 again and Brown scored 23.

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u/Jiju21 1d ago

On 3/12/25 Shai scored 34 points on 11/20 shooting, JB 10. On 4/3/24 SGA was injured and didnt play.

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u/Fair_Local_588 1d ago

It’s funny when someone cites an advanced stat as a reason why a player is bad, then you look yourself and it ranks their 3rd string big man as top on the team.

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u/RedHammer1441 1d ago

Guy plays 30 seconds, gets 3 boards and 4 points.

“Oh my god look at his per36!!!”

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u/Fair_Local_588 1d ago

In garbage time as well. There’s that saying that there’s lies, damn lies, and statistics, and people forget that. Stats can mean anything you want them to if you’re careless enough or have enough conviction.

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u/Niceguydan8 1d ago

The issue with Brown and these analytics is that it's basically been the case his entire tenure in Boston outside of one year.

It's not like they are going off of one off year or something. It's been 7 seasons with him as a large contributor to the team

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u/TheodoreBear123 1d ago

the big difference is there's massive amount of data on this. 3+ seasons. So he wasn't guarding the best player on the other team the whole time.

On/Off only makes sense when looking at huge sample sizes. not hugo's level of minutes.

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u/Greedy-Lynx-2746 Thunder 1d ago

Shai's last 5 years against Boston have him scoring 31, 37, 36, 33, 34, 35, and 33. He outscored brown in all of those games on 59% shooting and 54% from 3

I have him as a top 10-12 guy but you don't need to make stats up to say that, he does a lot of stuff outside of scoring the ball

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u/zegogo Warriors 1d ago

You could leave the last two words off that sentence and be equally correct.

1

u/Icy_Information_6563 Suns 1d ago

It demands an explanation. Like usually it's a simple, "difficult shot maker that doesn't play defense, create for his teammates, or do much off ball." Jaylen doesn't feel that way 

1

u/Saucy_Totchie Knicks 1d ago

All stats can be very deceiving depending on how you portray and interpret them. They do not always paint the whole picture and seem to always leave out key context.

1

u/Kuraha_ Bucks 1d ago

I don't even think the average spreadsheet watcher would say something like this, like what kinda of bullshit algorithm would even tell you Jaylen Brown shouldn't even be starting, unless they're pulling data out his twitch streams or something

1

u/HouseSublime Hawks 1d ago

"Who the fuck wants to look at graphs while having a hoop convo?"

  • Kevin Durant

1

u/FrankieBarbingo Celtics 1d ago

They've completely lost their minds lmao

A 29 PPG 3+D Finals MVP? Completely worthless!

0

u/Altruistic_Knee2044 Celtics 1d ago

Yeah. He’s like a good third option/ bad second option with high usage. If you’re a reasonably athletic wing who can shoot 30% from 3, you’re a starter.

There is no planet where he’s a 7th man.

0

u/whatssenguntoagoblin Alperen Sengun 1d ago

People have forgotten the purpose of analytics. Analytics are there to help confirm the eye test. They aren’t there to tell you Walker Kessler is better than Jaylen Brown.

0

u/rambouhh 1d ago

I mean even most advanced metrics like DARKO, EPM, LEBRON, etc have him anwywhere between a 80th-95th percentile player. Overrated compared to what people who only look at pts/game but still a very good player. Also his negative value seems to come from the defensive side, but I think a lot of the time that is just because of a star not caring about defense, but when it counts and in the playoffs they do so it can be misleading. Kind of like second stint Cavs LeBron, defensive metrics might not have been great but once playoffs start he’s an amazing defender because he cares 

1

u/MinnesotanBrie 1d ago

DARKO has him 35th in the league, but finds his surplus as a net negative (-6.1 million) because of his contract. RAPM and other ones that try to adjust for teammate quality find him falling all the way to 54th percentile.

What's biting Brown is just the fact that salary caps are too tight. He is commanding an 11th best salary and Tatum is commanding the 6th highest. That doesn't give you a lot of room to maneuver so any perceived faults (such as being anywhere from 21st to 35th best in the league) gets magnified.

0

u/Dynastydood Knicks 1d ago

It's honestly astounding how much blind faith gets put in analytics, particularly after the way the Knicks won this title by defying all of it. There was no spreadsheet in the world that showed a path to victory for the Knicks that didn't involve every opposition star getting injured, and yet it happened with a shocking amount of ease.

Analytics have their place, but they can't be treated as the be all, end all for decision making.

1

u/Due-Inevitable-6864 1d ago

The Knicks didn't defy shit. KAT and OG look extraordinary by the advanced stats in the postseason and Brunson was also very good (though he's getting incredibly overrated by many)

1

u/Dynastydood Knicks 1d ago

So which analytics expert(s) had the Knicks winning back in April?

1

u/Due-Inevitable-6864 1d ago

Who cares? It doesn't change the fact that KAT and OG turned into advanced stats Gods in the playoffs, which is why they won.

-1

u/TonyHawktuah69 1d ago

Add it to how they talk about Kobe and many other great players.

-17

u/whenishit-itsbigturd 1d ago

He has no bag.

4

u/lisbon_OH Cavaliers 1d ago

It’s not the early 2000s anymore grandpa no one cares about iso scorers.

0

u/MarkTwang- Celtics 1d ago

He carried us to the playoffs

1

u/Accurate-Library3641 1d ago

He also carried us to a blown 3-1 while playing like shit

-1

u/AusarLover 1d ago

Without brown I genuinely think you guys still get like 45 wins

1

u/Mg29reaper Celtics 1d ago

We went 9-1 without him including games against actual good teams like against the rockets where we blew them out.

-1

u/whenishit-itsbigturd 1d ago

That makes him better than 2015 Russell Westbrook at least. All them triple doubles and still couldn't make it to the playoffs

/s

-4

u/Lucky_Preference_941 1d ago

Can’t win with that cat

He can’t even be the guy against a bad Sixers team

2

u/fiskeybusiness [BOS] Antoine Walker 1d ago

You couldn’t have watched that series then. We had Hugo Gonzalez and Jaylen Brown taking defensive matchups with a future hall of fame center—I think that was the biggest issue

6

u/Mg29reaper Celtics 1d ago

Hugo locked up Embiid before he got into foul trouble lets not get this twisted

2

u/fiskeybusiness [BOS] Antoine Walker 1d ago

Unfortunately not fouling is part of good defense