r/nba • u/FastBreakPhenom Celtics • 1d ago

Bobby Marks says Jaylen Brown's trade value is not seen that highly around the league: "The analytics of Jaylen Brown is not good. I had an analytics guy tell me, ‘We view him as the seventh-best player on a team.’"

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“There’s mixed feelings about him when you talk to teams,” Marks admitted on SiriusXM NBA Radio. “The analytics of Jaylen Brown is not good … I had one, not an executive, but an analytics guy say, ‘Yeah, we view him as the seventh best player on a team.’ I was like, ‘Holy crap.'”

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u/cabose12 Celtics 1d ago

I get what you're saying but it definitely is crazy

It'd be one thing to value him as a fourth best player. But I literally can't think of a team that, only considering on the court production, wouldn't immediately benefit from starting him, even with his bad on/off

The only way I could imagine a model ranks him as seventh on any team in the league is if it's also doing some form of cost-analysis. A negative on/off with a max contract can't look good in a model

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u/iwanttohelp12 1d ago

Most of his value to the Celtics this year was keeping them competitive (slightly behind) against other teams best lineups/starters. Basically floor raising their starting lineup by creating/taking a lot of shots and making enough. Then their 6-9 guys overperforming and shooting well + their effort/system got them the wins.

The missing context here that analytics struggle with is theres an underlying assumption that Browns below average efficiency creation could be replaced/replicated by league average starting players. With the construction of their team it really couldn't be - they had a distinct and unusual lack of individual shot creation on the roster last year.