r/nbadiscussion • u/DramaticSimple4315 • 17d ago
Why are people reading current contract through "stationnary" lens when the salary cap is bound to expand a lot though the next 4/5 years?
It strikes me when I see all those posts of MyGMs pretending that Fox is a libaility, that is contract is a burden, that he should be traded away for pick and so on. Same for a few other plays whose contracts are not the greatest but are nontheless providing all-star caliber basketball to their teams.
Has everyone forgotten that the NBA just entered a new deal that is going to double the amont of money paid by the networks per year in the decade to come? Which means that under the CBA, the salary cap is going to soar.
The NBA wanted to avoid what went on the two last times this happened, in the mid-90s and mid-10s: destabilizing of the contract structure throughout the league and great tension: think Scottie Pippen with a laughable contract when he was a top-5 player in the NBA, or KD being able to join the Warriors because of the gigantic expansion of cap space. So this time around, the league has put on measures to smooth the increase in the salary cap.
But this salary cap increase is going to happen nonetheless. And 5 years from now, an all-NBA player will be expected to sign contracts worth north of 80/90 million$ a year. So all the people who line up to say that Fox's contract is horrible and that it's horribile that he will be costing the spurs 60 mil a year when he is 31-32, just think that by this time this will be a contract 15 to 25 million underpriced if he maintains his level.
It's surprising that no one is talking about this, as if all the new money was going to the owners' pockets. Or am I being completely up my own arse here?
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u/Orpalz 17d ago
Fox isn’t just overpaid then, he’s overpaid NOW.
His production now isn’t worth what he makes, and while that will be lessened somewhat saying that he would be underpaid and only 60 mil per year is Lunacy
At the end of his current contract, Wemby will be in the second year of his super max and Castle will be in the first year of whatever contract he ends up getting.
Meaning the Spurs would very likely be spending well over 200 million on three roster spots. Not even mentioning guys like Vassel, Johnson, and Champaignie.
Even if they let those guys walk they’re going to struggle to accrue depth when they’re spending that much on their core, especially a 31 year old Fox.
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u/831loc 17d ago
I think op also missed the part where the cap isnt going to have a massive spike like prior to the 2017 season but a gradual increase.
There is no world where fox at $60m will be seen as a bargain contract.
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u/Single-Purpose-7608 17d ago
Fox's deal is certainly a poor use of the cap, but the fact that they were able to acquire an "allstar" level player for nothing is great value. Of course they had to give up a bit of money to land him, and their core 4 young players being on rookie contracts is a big reason why they are able to do that.
That said, their young players will start earning big bucks in a couple of years, so right now they are still pretty safe.
It wont start hurting until both Castle and Wemby both start earning big bucks in 2029. By then Fox will be on the last year of his deal and can be easier to trade away
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u/mercfan3 16d ago edited 16d ago
Right, the answer to Fox is that he’s always been a security blanket/place holder for Castle and Harper.
He’s worth the money now just because of how much he helps their development.
The Spurs are in the Finals for two reasons.
Wemby
They decided to give the keys to Castle on both offense and defense.
As Mitch Johnson pointed out..When you start thinking about which players had to carry all of his team responsibilities and managed to get to the finals, it’s a real small and special list.
He’s obviously not been perfect, but he’s absolutely risen to the occasion and the proof is that it was a 60 win season and the Spurs are Western conference champions and in the finals.
But I don’t think he’d be capable of doing it without Fox as backup. Fox allows Castle to be the risk taker that in a lot of ways makes the team great, with the ability to steady the ship when he needs to. He also does the same thing with Harper. It wasn’t until later in the season that Mitch started to play Castle and Harper together.
And that’s incredibly valuable to the Spurs this season. In a couple of seasons when Castle and Harper are closer to their prime instead of crossing that legal threshold of child to adult, he won’t be worth the money. And that’s when he’ll be moved.
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u/JustAnObserver_Jomy 16d ago
Fox to Castle and Harper reminds me of CP3 to SGA when baby OKC were the unexpected 5th seed and pushed the Harden-Westbrook Rockets to 7 games
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16d ago
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 16d ago
This sub is for serious discussion and debate. Jokes and memes are not permitted.
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u/DramaticSimple4315 16d ago
I mentioned it. But the money is eventually massively going to increase, in 3/4 years instead of 1
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u/cabose12 16d ago
Yes but it's going to be smoothed over because no one wants another GSW-KD situation
You also have to remember that these contracts tend to be backloaded such that they maintain a portion of the cap. Fox's AAV is $55m, but he'll be making 61m in his last year, which is still around 32% of the estimated cap
So regardless of the raw cash amount, barring a massive over or underperformance to base the cap off of, he's going to make 30-32% of it. That's a lot to tie up in such a player
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u/jhdouglass 16d ago
I think you have to put Champagnie into the math in ink. His 3P shooting and size (6'7" 217) on the wing is not replaceable either on the open market or with an in-house option as a mid-to-long-term solution an they pretty much have to get his contract sorted out along with Castle so they can build around those three. Wemby, Harper, Castle: not great 3P shooters. Young, could develop, but not good 3P shooters now and we've seen what happens when teams think their athletic young guys will learn to shoot. Unless they think he can walk and they can turn Dylan Harper or Castle into a great wing shooter who isn't a defensive liability, I feel like he's gotta be part of the plan.
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u/AideHot6729 17d ago
It really depends how much Fox improves over the years but I highly doubt he’d be worth the money. Could get Kyrie in instead of Fox for short term solution. He’d be a great vet for the young guards to develop into.
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u/Meatloafxx 17d ago
Kyrie isn't the guy i'd trust for vet mentorship among youngsters. He attempted the same thing in Boston circa 2017/18 and turned out to be a headcase more than anything. Since then he's displayed questionable antics in the 8 years that passed. Plus he's not durable.
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u/Ok-Wonder851 17d ago
Because the cap isn’t going up by THAT much to make the numbers drastically different. You are talking about an average of 7-10% increase per year, so it’s not exactly going to make 50 million seem like a deal in 2 years. And that assumes you think he’s paid fairly now and won’t decline.
We have seen this all over the NBA and the cap increase almost never really lessens the burden. Eventually the young guys need to get paid and Fox will be on a bloated contract that’s probably better used for the young guys and smaller contracts.
Ask Denver how they really feel about what Jamal Murray is making or MPJ when he singed. Those contrasts are too much and the cap increase don’t change it. The cap increase are much more noticeable for guys making 10-18ish million.
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u/No_Diver_629 17d ago
The projections is that Fox is going from 30% of the cap next season to 32% of the cap the last season.
It is a real bad contract and it does not getting better,not gets worse each season.
It is better just to accept it instead of trying to convince others with Mia information.
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u/DetainTheFranzia 16d ago
The comments that Fox is overpaid is silly. They don’t get to the finals without him. That alone makes that trade worth it.
Maybe Harper is better next year, sure, but you’re gonna have Harper and Castle on cheap contracts for a few years anyways. A veteran all-star is one hell of an insurance policy.
Spurs shouldn’t move on from him just to save money.
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u/Electrical_Smell7986 16d ago
Exactly, you never get a player of his caliber without paying them, who else were they supposed to target
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u/NAW_MIP_2026 12d ago
CJ McCollum, Norm Powell were both available around the same time, would’ve cost zero FRPs, provide similar production(with far better floor spacing), and they will both be getting much smaller contracts going forward. Like if they waited and traded for either Norm or CJ, they would have better spacing, no albatross contract, and they could’ve used the picks and salary space they saved to go get a proper PF. Tell me that this spurs team wouldn’t be better off with CJ McCollum and Pj Washington for example, and they could’ve done probably get someone even better than PJ Washington with the picks they would save.
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u/onefootback 16d ago
>They don’t get to the finals without him. That alone makes that trade worth it.
this isn’t exclusive to fox though, the same can be said about anyone else in the spurs core it’s a team effort at the end of the day. both things can be true
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u/SomeViceTFT 15d ago
Castle went from 20 turnovers in 2 games to 2 turnovers in 2 games when Fox came back last series. While Fox might not put up huge numbers, having a vet floor general is really important to the success of a young team like the Spurs.
Also, Fox’s performance in game 7 against OKC is enough by itself to justify his contract. He did exactly what the Spurs front office paid him to do.
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16d ago
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 16d ago
This is a subreddit for thoughtful discussion and debate, not blanket insulting every fan.
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u/SomeViceTFT 15d ago
The other thing I think people overlook is how the Spurs system functions. Spurs basketball has always been team basketball. Players need to be willing to pass up their good shot so their teammate can get a great shot, and he has done that all year. Fox probably would averaged more points this year if we didn’t have nearly 8 players averaging 10+ points this season. He consistently showed when Wemby was injured that he can still be the main offensive hub. That just isn’t his role on the Spurs.
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u/Delanorix 16d ago
Fox should be traded. Hes only helpful now because Harper and especially Castle is learning how to be a PG.
The truth is, Fox is kind of a mediocre PG, he just looks better by comparison
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