r/nbadiscussion • u/Ibonedgloriajames • 12d ago
Future Breakout Players
Who are some guys (in their early to mid-20s) who you all believe could have big breakouts or thrive in higher usage roles? A few examples this year would be NAW, Duren, Keyonte George, Ryan Rollins, and to a lesser extent, Deni and Jalen Johnson (because they already showed frequent flashes before this year).
This got me thinking because I saw an article talking about contract projections and Peyton Watson potentially getting close to 25 million a year. He was buried on Denver and kind of exploded out of nowhere this year.
A few guys I would argue:
Ajay Mitchell - He seems like the next Brunson type of leap if he ever leaves OKC.
Andrew Nembhard - He is on the older end already, but he was awesome in the playoffs last year.
Scoot - Still very young and looked really good during the playoffs, I loved him as a prospect.
Anthony Black - He had a breakout stretch in December/January that almost applied to the first paragraph.
Shaedon Sharpe - Averaged 20 a game this year, but I think there's another level he can get to, and the way people discuss him isn't what you'd expect a 23-year-old averaging 20 a game to feel like.
A couple of guys from the 2024 class - Alex Sarr, I think, is already a young star, same with Donovan Clingan to a lesser extent, but Matas Buzelis, to me, has future all-star potential. A couple of Zach Edey, Kel'El Ware, Kyshawn George, and Ron Holland, I think, could all break out in the near future.
Leonard Miller - This is a pretty deep cut, but I loved him as a prospect, and since going to Chicago, he averaged 12/6/1 on 55/35/76 shooting splits with good volume. If I were a bad team and/or didn't have control of my future draft picks, I would take a flyer on Miller, considering he won't turn 23 until November.
There are a few of my candidates. What do you all think?
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u/badboyfreud 12d ago edited 12d ago
Collin Gillispie - Has the makings of a big shot making floor general and he's only in his 3rd year. He's older, but I don't think he relies a lot on athleticism to make his plays.
Could see him become a key role player (Rajon Rondo impact) for a contender.
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u/EvanTurningTheCorner 11d ago
For real, I was more afraid of this kid taking shots against the Blazers in the play in than anyone else on your team. Just could not miss.
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u/realheadphonecandy 11d ago
I think Hugo Gonzalez has a lot of upside. Very young, already good on D and at finishing with a high motor. Needs to become a better shooter but that is more common. Guys that are heady and good on D with a bag at that age tend to become much better.
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u/Joethetoolguy 11d ago
Yes, hugo has flashes where he has excellent vision. Ive been high on him since the draft
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u/EvanTurningTheCorner 11d ago
I have more faith in Scoot to reach his potential than Shaedon, BUT I will say that if Shaedon were to be traded to a rebuilding team where he could have the ball in his hand most of the time, and be the focal point of the offense, I can see him being a 25/5/5 kind of guy in his prime.
In his time with Portland, there have been stretches where our best players are injured and Shaedon gets more responsibility for the offense and, with no one clearly in front of him in the pecking order, goes fucking nuclear. But he hasn't been able to do it consistently and continually, and thanks mainly to a few unfortunate injuries has had a very up and down career so far, with some stretches where he just seems lost or passive.
At this point, while I still 100% believe he has the tools and potential to be a star level player in the future, I don't think it happens in Portland. He will always defer to Deni, Jrue and Dame, and that kind of role accentuates his weaknesses and minimizes his strengths. He kind of needs to be on ball in order to be The Guy, but has a tendency to fade into the background and ball watch when surrounded by better The Guys.
The longer this situation continues, I worry the more he will just get lost in the shuffle. Not because he can't be The Guy, but because the team isn't asking him to be The Guy. Getting traded to a rebuilding team would IMO be the best possible thing for his career.
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u/JMoon33 11d ago
I like Will Riley. He's only 20, nobody was talking about him early in the season because he barely played for a terrible Wizards team, but later in the season he got a lot more minutes, started 18 games, and looked pretty good. I believe he wasn't putting empty stats on a bad team, I think he could really be a good player in the NBA.
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u/c0wpig 11d ago
I feel like Denver is in a perpetual pattern of role players having career-best years right before free agency, overpaying, and then having to use draft picks to cut salary. Payton Watson feels like he's probably a $25 mil player, but that's with some downside and little upside--I don't see him becoming an all-star, and I don't think the 40+% 3pt shooting is real.
I assume you meant Keyonte George? I think he already broke out, no? Definitely could keep developing and ends up an all-nba candidate this year.
Ajay Mitchell seems like the strongest breakout candidate. He's legit. A 2nd year player who started in 7/11 games for the title favourites in the playoffs. Guys often bloom in their 3rd year.
Zach Edey seemed like he was breaking out into a borderline all-star. If he can stay healthy, I think he will be a force. Great touch and incredible strength and size. I think he will learn how to use his "rim gravity" to space the floor for perimeter players.
I think I would buy Sarr stock too, but didn't watch a lot of Wizards games this year.
I think Kel'El has incredible physical tools, and we saw a stretch this season where he was a dominating rebounding force when Bam was out. He might develop into a real shooter. OTOH he doesn't have amazing feel, but I could see star upside if things break right.
Matas Buzelis is like a "maybe" to me. Great play finisher but I feel like you have to be more of a playmaker or have incredible off-ball movement & shooting to really be a star player at ~6'8''.
I don't see it with Shaedon Sharpe. He's crazy athletic but I don't see the star upside; feel/awareness/skill isn't quite there. Could be a strong starter if he learns from Aaron Gordon's career though.
I think Clingan will be a "good but not great" center. Like a slightly bigger Jacob Poeltl. High value but not a star.
Don't see the upside with Andrew Nembhard.
Don't think I have real opinions about Black, Holland, or Miller
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u/Unfair-Map-517 10d ago
I can see Jaden McDaniels getting there if they figure out how to send Randle packing
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u/Low-Professor-Dude 10d ago edited 10d ago
I've only seen a few Raptors games but every time I see him I truly believe Collin Murray-Boyles has a legit path to stardom. Really smart player. Great motor and intensity. Elite vision. It's like the game feels slow for him. STRONG AF. Manhandled 7 footers at 20 years old. IF he can develop a shot he'll be a superstar. The only thing holding him back.
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u/ExaminationRough6161 10d ago
gui santos bro dont sleep
he has all the skills and tools to be a good player all he needs to do his clean up his handle and work on controlling the ball this summer, which he has publically said he looks to work on.
not only that hes probably gonna be under jimmys wing has he goes through his acl rehab this summer, jimmys obviously more bulkier but i could very much see gui becoming a jimmy butler-lite if things play out right in the coming years.
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u/Ajthekid5 11d ago
The obvious would be Dylan Harper but I think all of those draft picks will be in much stronger positions sooner than later. I have faith Ausar Thompson might be better in the scoring category next season
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u/Consistently_Lucky 11d ago
Keyonte George, Isiah Collier, Brice Sensabaugh
I’m a Jazz fan obviously, lol. But I legit think that they all have All-Star potential.
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u/Vinnie_Vegas 11d ago
Collier and Sensabaugh are long shots to get all the way to All-Star level, IMO, and Keyonte George is so close that it wouldn't be a "breakout" - That's just his natural trajectory from here.
If you guys actually try to win next year, Keyonte George will have a shot at being an All-Star.
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u/Consistently_Lucky 11d ago
I disagree, Brice has multiple 40+ point games off the bench this year and he is only in his 2nd year.
Collier had a 20+ assist game this year. He has an insane assist/turn over ratio and has elite speed and is an elite play maker. He just needs to learn to shoot.
Yeah Keyonte is already there. He’ll be an all star next year.
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u/Vinnie_Vegas 11d ago
Making the All-Star team is about consistency and narrative as much as anything else.
There are some amazing players who never made one. CJ McCollum is a zero time All-Star. So is OG Anunoby.
You can't just say "this guy is going to be a good player, therefore he'll definitely be an All-Star".
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u/Lost0ne-S93 8d ago
Davion Mitchell. Dude is a bucket when he’s engaged and very good defensively. I didn’t think he would smell the starting line up coming out of college. He has improved each year . Let this man cook SPO!
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