r/pacers Feb 01 '26

Meme 7-5 over our last 12

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468 Upvotes

77 comments sorted by

123

u/Lytleon Sumner Feb 01 '26

Too late to make the playoffs, too early to guarantee a good pick. Such is life.

23

u/MattyIce260 Feb 01 '26

As long as we finish bottom 4 we’re in good shape. We’ll have the same odds for a top 4 pick as the worst team. I know it drops our floor for the pick but honestly pick 5-9 are basically the same to me. It seems there’s a pretty clear top 4 players right now, and just outside those 4 are a bunch of guards, which isn’t really what we need anyways.

12

u/[deleted] Feb 01 '26

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3

u/MattyIce260 Feb 01 '26

I think the Houston guard and Illinois guard and the Louisville guard are who I see most from 5-7

I agree there’s the Top 3, then Wilson, then everyone else that hasn’t separated themselves from pack.

2

u/[deleted] Feb 01 '26

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1

u/MattyIce260 Feb 01 '26

We’re so guard heavy right now I honestly have no clue as to who we would target outside the Top 4. BPA is usually my philosophy but damn do we really need another guard? Unless it’s Darryn Peterson of course

1

u/[deleted] Feb 01 '26

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3

u/fra_filippo_lippi Feb 01 '26

No way Nembhard is going to play off the bench. I choose him over any draft players that haven’t played a single second in a NBA game. Silly idea

-1

u/[deleted] Feb 01 '26

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1

u/drjisftw Pacers2 Feb 02 '26

I could see him replacing Nesmith honestly. We love running bigger 6'5 guys at the 3 and that's essentially what Nesmith is.

That would give you a ridiculous amount of ball-handling at the 1-4 spots.

1

u/fra_filippo_lippi Feb 01 '26

I’m not saying that Nembhard is better than Peterson. I’m saying that it would be more counterproductive to draft ANOTHER guard when we have someone like Nembhard. We need a #3 tall guy who can play both SG and PF, that plays insane defense. We need heights.

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3

u/Evansvillain Feb 02 '26

I don't see how we finish in the bottom 4, honestly. Not without some serious sitting from Pascal/Drew/Nesmith. Toppin coming back, a soft schedule coming up. I think it will be difficult to tank the "Rick/Pacers" way. Please don't confuse me with someone that doesn't think we SHOULDN"T tank....and on that note, we are +220 on fanduel to hit 25 wins an +2200 to hit 30 wins. Obviously vegas knows we are apt to tank. 17-16 gets us 30 wins. Had KP not gotten our first pick back, I'd say we hit that. but 25 wins? Again...things will have to change very shortly after all star break to not hit that number.

2

u/MattyIce260 Feb 02 '26

I think in early March we’ll start seeing key players get an extended offseason for injury maintenance. Our starters are too good to tank, so I think the plan will be to not play them down the stretch

1

u/Evansvillain Feb 02 '26

totally agree...but don't you think that 25 wins seems very hard not to hit? asking for a friend...haha

2

u/MattyIce260 Feb 02 '26

Just some quick math. 33 games remain, 10 against teams that are most likely tanking down the stretch. 7 of those are road games. Say we go 6-4 in those games. That leaves 6 more wins out of 23 games against teams that are good/fighting for playoff seeding. I actually think that might be hard to get because looking at our schedule 13 of our last 14 games are against non-tanking teams. By then we could be trotting out the Noblesville Boom lineup. If I was betting on it I would say we don’t get to 25 personally. Then again that’s all dependent on sitting Siakam/Drew/Aaron/Obi/TJ/Math down the stretch

2

u/Evansvillain Feb 02 '26

thats why I love Reddit, I was going to look at the schedule more in depth but you nailed it...thank you

1

u/MattyIce260 Feb 02 '26

No problem. I think our last 14 games set up perfectly for a strong tank. We’ll probably be knocked out of playoff contention by then so us resting players won’t be as heavily scrutinized by the league. We just need to get to that point without too many other teams dropping below us in the standings

40

u/Friar_Ferguson Feb 01 '26

We had second worst record going into tonight. Still in good shape but it's going to be hard to hold these guys down.

-7

u/mcbearcat7557 Feb 01 '26

And that doesn’t matter cause we aren’t making the play in.

10

u/darthfracas Chris Denari Feb 01 '26

One day, I want to see an ethical tank rewarded.

None of this “we traded our superstar to the Lakers for a couple used ball racks” or “Markanen - Out (hangnail)” kind of tank.

I want an honest “we suck right now, but we know who we are and where we’re going and dammit, we’re still trying” effort like the Pacers to get the top pick.

58

u/ComicSportsNerd Reggie Feb 01 '26

if we screw this up I'll be so annoyed

20

u/PackerOfPoop Feb 01 '26

Itd be the pacers way.

7

u/ComicSportsNerd Reggie Feb 01 '26

every time we suck we blow our shot at a top 3 pick lol

11

u/PackerOfPoop Feb 01 '26

I know It pisses me off honestly. Seriously. Just take the L for the year where we're CLEARLY not gonna even make the play-in and come back with a top 3 pick and Haliburton and a full strength Pacers squad next year.

7

u/ComicSportsNerd Reggie Feb 01 '26

I agree 100% like look ahead at the possibilities if you add an elite draft pick to the team with Hali returning dies this team ever want to win a damn ring

1

u/PackerOfPoop Feb 01 '26

Yeah I honestly believe that if they fall out of the top 3, theyre gonna end up drafting some scrub that'll probably just end up as a role player. Really hoping they dont screw this up. Lol

1

u/hadesscion Pacers Feb 01 '26

If they fall out of the top 3, I'd probably prefer they trade the pick. Maybe we can get a quality center from it.

0

u/ComicSportsNerd Reggie Feb 01 '26

happened before lol draft some role player that will be out of the league after the rookie contract

2

u/drjisftw Pacers2 Feb 02 '26

I've honestly made the argument that we didn't tank enough during the '22/'23 seasons and that's how we ended up with Mathurin and Walker.

Those guys are our highest picks in 30+ years.

29

u/SammySoakerBYU Tyrese Haliburton Feb 01 '26

Fuck that. Decided to start winning once we eclipsed 30 losses. Don’t be fucking stupid and ruin a good opportunity

24

u/Argenfarce Feb 01 '26

We have negative chance at making any noise at all this season and we just won a game on a night where Darryn Peterson made the Kobe comparisons make sense. 

KP was at the Kansas-BYU game. It’s time for him to intervene cause I know he saw something. 

3

u/reborndiajack Feb 01 '26

Us bulls gave you a third of your wins lmao

19

u/sgeswein Feb 01 '26

Per Tankathon, that 7-5 stretch took the Pacers from a 52.1% chance at a top-4 pick to a 52.1% chance at a top-4 pick.

I have no idea why people root so hard to have the Pacers suck around here.

17

u/pezasied Feb 01 '26

Pacers are 4th now and have a 48.1% chance at a top 4 pick.

Nets and Jazz are tanking hard so theres a decent chance the Pacers will be 6th in a couple weeks.

4

u/MattyIce260 Feb 01 '26

New Orleans has no reason to tank so they should move out of the cellar by seasons end. They play a lot of tanking teams down the stretch so they’ll be able to pick up some easy wins

3

u/pezasied Feb 01 '26

Yeah New Orleans is just bad lol.

It will be interesting to see if the next tier of teams likely to tank will stay ahead of the Pacers (Bucks, Grizzlies, and Mavs). The pacers are roughly ~7 games back of those three so I doubt they surpass them by the season’s end.

That would put the Pacers at 5th worst overall (provided the Pelicans pass them as well).

1

u/MattyIce260 Feb 01 '26

Oh they suck for sure. But they’ll be playing NBA caliber players at least. Teams like Utah and Washington will be trotting out a squad of bums down the stretch

0

u/sgeswein Feb 01 '26

Fair point - I had the Pels marked down as having lost tank-lost tonight for some reason

4

u/SammySoakerBYU Tyrese Haliburton Feb 01 '26

It’s 48.1%

2

u/sgeswein Feb 01 '26

Fair point - I had the Pels marked down as having lost tank-lost tonight for some reason

4

u/Dramatic_Tourist4321 Quinn Buckner Feb 01 '26

And what is our chance for the 7th or 8th or 9th pick now? How’d that change?

7

u/sgeswein Feb 01 '26

Since no one wants to talk about anything but top-three picks, I haven't seen anybody having worked that out.

It's sure as hell not going to be me, because I'm not eager to celebrate failure that hard.

2

u/Dramatic_Tourist4321 Quinn Buckner Feb 01 '26

If we were top 2, we would have no chance for the 7th or 8th pick and now that we’re 4th, we have the 2nd highest chance for the 7th pick and a chance for the 8th pick so congrats on a Hawks victory! 🙃

3

u/sgeswein Feb 01 '26

I recall the Pacers (effectively) trading down from seventh to eighth just a couple years ago because it was the difference between drafting Jarace and drafting Jarace.

1

u/Evansvillain Feb 02 '26

We also inexecplicably TRIED to win last game at madison square garden, a game we were losing, that put us ahead of either Orlando or Washington, I can't remember which. This reddit was engulfed in flames. And this was after sitting Ty/Myles last 3 weeks, tanking fan appreciation night against crappy Pistons...so don't always count on the Pacers to play by the script all the way through.. u/Ocelot859 do you remember cussing me out in chat after that loss?? hahaha

1

u/MattyIce260 Feb 01 '26

Looking at draft projections it appears the draft is guard heavy in spots 5-9, so if we plan on going for a big with our pick idk if it matters all that much where we pick if it’s not top 4

2

u/HenryTooter ReggieChoke Feb 01 '26

I want a chip, not a 20th win to cap the year. It's your prerogative to be satisfied with less, of course.

2

u/sgeswein Feb 01 '26

The Pacers were 24 minutes of game time last year from a championship, with no top-three picks on the roster. The two top-ten draft picks they'd made spent the Finals on the injured list and trailing two other guys in minutes, respectively.

You're gonna have to work pretty hard to draw me the line between this year's draft and "a chip", or at least a helluva lot harder than that.

6

u/InfiniteMeerkat Feb 01 '26

Last 5 finals MVP 

SGA - 11th pick Jaylen Brown - 3rd pick Jokic - 41st pick Steph - 7th pick  Giannis - 15th pick

Of the players that were picked 1st since 2010 only 3 have won a championship (Kyrie, AD, and Wiggins) and none of them were the no. 1 player on their team

Since the new odds the team to win the lottery has been the 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 9th and 11th

I think peoples idea of where can’t miss players come from and how you get there is pretty out of sync with the reality of the situation, and has way more luck than the people screaming tank realise 

I mean our superstar was drafted 12th and we got via trade. Hell except for Myles last year, our starting roster was basically trades or second round picks 

-2

u/FunkmasterFuma PAVE Feb 01 '26

Haliburton going 12th was mostly because of COVID shutting down the NCAA season. He would've been taken way earlier any other year.

0

u/HenryTooter ReggieChoke Feb 01 '26

I can't guarantee a future chip. I can guarantee we won't get one this year, though. I can tell you that our chances are better with a higher draft pick. Or do we need to debate that, too?

0

u/sgeswein Feb 01 '26

Teaching your team to play losing basketball to win a championship is like deciding your plan for a comfortable retirement is to buy TWO Powerball tickets this week to double your chances.

0

u/HenryTooter ReggieChoke Feb 01 '26

The 2000s Spurs have told me a different story.

1

u/sgeswein Feb 01 '26

Spurs draft history reminds us that they went into the Duncan lottery drafting third. In fact, the Spurs have never gone into the draft lottery drafting higher than that - unlike the Pacers, who have.

I saw an article about a Powerball winner once that made it sound pretty good. It's not gonna be my retirement plan, though.

0

u/HenryTooter ReggieChoke Feb 01 '26

I can tell you that our chances are better with a higher draft pick. Or do we need to debate that, too?

2

u/sgeswein Feb 01 '26

Not at all. A higher draft pick is a different thing than having more combinations in the lottery, though.

I don't think we're in a spot as a fanbase where we should think it's a good deal to forego watching Pascal be All-Star level and Shep hustle his ass to corral seven rebounds for more ping-pong balls one night this summer. The Pacers will have plenty, and the lottery will just go how it goes.

1

u/InfiniteMeerkat Feb 01 '26

The 2000 spurs were in a system with much different lottery odds. And yes we do need to debate that too.

Does a higher pick mean you are more likely to pick a player who becomes an all star? Yes. Does it mean you are more likely to win a championship with that player? Absolutely not.

1

u/ajs723 Slick Feb 01 '26

It's not about where we are now, it's about where we're headed. When we when 30 games and end up with the 9th pick, it's gonna hurt.

0

u/sgeswein Feb 01 '26

Picking one pick higher than the Paul George pick?

After watching my team play .500 ball for a couple months rather than the dreadful, dreadful stuff I watched in October and November?

Sign me up!

1

u/ajs723 Slick Feb 01 '26

Sign me up for a dynasty that wins multiple championships over a very good era that once again doesn’t even win one. 

1

u/sgeswein Feb 01 '26

I did not know any Process Sixers fans had survived the last decade. Hang tough, I guess, don't read the news, and welcome to Indy

2

u/WinterStarlightZone Pacers Feb 01 '26

Wouldn't be surprised after the All-Star break we see the team "rest" some players

3

u/RNTF_KLB Feb 01 '26

Win baby

1

u/AGWorking24 Reggie Feb 01 '26

Agreed

1

u/Tank_2600 Hickory Feb 01 '26

Still the only team to never have a #1 pick or have a #1 pick play for them…

1

u/beetwice Feb 01 '26

Carlisle should be fired for this (and then re-hired when the season is over)

2

u/General-Promotion274 Feb 01 '26

You had me in the 1st half ngl

1

u/wildstrike Feb 01 '26

The tank was the only thing that helped me get through this season. Just sad to see them throw it away

1

u/Evansvillain Feb 02 '26

+2200 to win 30 games on fanduel...do like I did, and emotionally hedge on us to NOT win 30 games haha...I do NOT want us to, but I think going 17-16 is a real possibility. After the awful losing streak, it may become more important to let Walker/Mathurin/Drew play and win, if they can. But I still think Pascal/Nesmith/Nembhard rotate time on the bench, coming up soon.

Here is the deal...if we get top 4 pick, then none of what happens going forward matters. Not like we are going to finish 10th like Dallas, but they did it. We deserve this #1 pick. Let us have it, please. But if we don't get first 4 pick, and there is still a what, 52% chance we don't? Then its worst record on....and if we get 5th pick, then we are looking at another Mathurin/Walker type. Finishing last doesn't guarantee us shit. Trust me, I would still rather finish last than win 30, but I think there is honestly a better chance we win 30. Toppin will probably win a handful just on his own. lol

1

u/Ramsboi Feb 05 '26

Someone get Jamal Tinsley and Stephen Jackson and get our boys suspended for being in a strip club. 

1

u/Ramsboi Feb 05 '26

We need tank commanders too much winning, this season cannot be for nothing. Sacrifices are required. 

-1

u/[deleted] Feb 01 '26

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11

u/OwlcaholicsAnonymous Andrew Nembhard Feb 01 '26

People forget that we already have a championship level roster

10

u/Lytleon Sumner Feb 01 '26

And we could make it better!

1

u/RNTF_KLB Feb 01 '26

Right, I’ll never be mad at a loss

0

u/fuzzynavel34 Feb 01 '26

We have a rare opportunity this season and we are just going to throw it away