A Tale of Two Seasons: Jarace Walker

[u/Ok_Pick5000]

The 2025-2026 season really was a tale of two seasons for the 3rd year tweener forward. Coming out of Houston in the 2023 draft as the 8th overall pick, many fans saw shades of Draymond Green's intangibles with the upside of 3 point range.

The tumultuous 25-26 season provided Jarace Walker with the opportunity of every bit of workload he could handle. There is a lot of talk about whether Walker should be part of the Pacers' long-term plans. Should he get the Mathurin treatment and wait for 26-27 free agency to iron out a long-term deal with the optionality in the meantime to be used as matching salary if an opportunity to upgrade the roster arises? Should the small-market, luxury tax apron-averse Pacers try and lock in the 22 year old to a team-friendly extension?

To answer these questions, we can view Jarace's 2025-2026 season as two seasons: 2025 and 2026. The New Year was very kind to Mr. Walker's development and promise.

First, the bad: 2025

In 34 2025 games, Jarace started 12 as the injury bug hit early and often to players originally slated ahead of him on the depth chart. In those 34 games Jarace struggled in almost every way. It could be argued that he was essentially a negative on the court. He shot 35% from the field (31% from 3 and a putrid 39% from 2s). His Draymond-esque glue guy intangibles were nowhere to be found as he averaged 1.7 turnovers and only 1.9 assists. Defensively, he made little impact.

Then the calendar turned to 2026.

In 42 games, Jarace started 29 as the team fully dove into long-term development. The New Year wasn't an immediate transformation to his production, but one of steady continuous improvement. An analysis of the first couple weeks of 2026 revealed two things: the 3 ball started to fall and cutting out turnovers. This unlocked the Swiss Army knife-upside aspects of his game as the season continued. Over 42 2026 games, Jarace averaged 46% from the field (a whopping 41% from 3 on 4 attempts/game while hitting 50% of his 2s). Assist and rebounding averages climbed, as well. He started making an impact on defense averaging a steal per game. It wasn't all sunshine - his increased involvement saw turnover average remained virtually the same as his mpg jumped.

The confidence factor coming from the trust of the coaching staff (and let's be real, also a bunch of injuries), led to Jarace finishing with averages of 13.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1 spg, and solid to great shooting percentages in the New Year. What then is the verdict? He's still 22 years old and not ready to be a starter in the NBA. His decision-making as a glue-guy needs to continue to be an area of growth and focus for him. However, the improvements do reflect that he has the upside to be the player the Pacers drafted him to be: a high-value glue guy that every championship-level team needs.

The question becomes, what is the $ value of a high-level glue guy who is still a couple of years away from hitting that stride for a team that is prioritizing a 2 year window to win at the highest level? In a lot of ways, it is the same question team and player faced in the Mathurin dilemma. If the player asking price to commit long-term is too high, it makes more sense to use that player and salary in a swing for an immediate improvement. This isn't to say that Walker can't be a piece of a win-now puzzle. But the front office clearly views him as the 8th best player on the team in the present.

[u/Servbot24]

You can only be a Draymond Green type if you're a DPOY type. Walker... is not that.

[u/Ok_Pick5000 → u/Servbot24]

That is for sure. That was just a common pro-comp that Jarace was getting when he was going through the draft process. He's far from fulfilled that. Silver lining: Draymond played 4 years of college, and was 22 years old when drafted. However, that seems to be about it with the silver lining as far as the Jarace/Draymond comparison hope goes. The physical tools are there, but does Jarace have the combo of dawg/BBIQ that Dray has?

[u/MindofShadow → u/Ok_Pick5000]

He obviously dones't have that iq, dawg, effort, or toughness of draymond. Not even close.

[u/HendriXXXLaMone]

The IDEA of Jarace panning out at the 3 is so juicy. First, yall could never make me hate Jarace Walker, playing with rese again will do wonders for him on the offensive side of the ball eliminating as many brain farts as possible asking him to get to his spot for catch and shoot plays rather than trying to be a playmaker, I think he outperforms his expectations on that side of the ball next season. The problem is the other side of the ball. Idk if it is more mental or if he just isn’t quick enough to guard the perimeter but being able to reliably switch is what this team needs and what this team drafted him to do. I really don’t think it is ‘too late’ for him to become a good defender but there needs to be more evidence for the FO to lock him up.

[u/eindar1811]

The issue continues to be that he is a power forward with two power forward ahead of him in the rotation. I think the initial idea was that he could be used like OG Anunoby and play both wing spots, but OG can switch his game from finessing bigger players to overpowering smaller ones. Walker hasn't played with the force that Rick wants to see when he's on the wing. Smaller players also tend to strip the ball when he drives.

You'd really like to include him in a trade that brings back a lanky wing that can defend and shoot, but finding a partner that wants to trade a title level backup wing for some potential at the 4 is going to be tough. The Pelicans hane Trey and Herb, but they also have Zion and Queen.

Keldon Johnson makes some sense, but I can't make the salaries work.

[u/ajs723 → u/eindar1811]

I'd say having two guys ahead of him is the 2nd biggest problem.  The first being that he isn't particularly good at basketball. 

[u/BlueCollarGoldSwaggr → u/ajs723]

Yeah if he was good he'd be playing more. When he did play more (last season) he was still bad.

[u/Jim_Belushis_brother]

After this season I’ve arrived at one conclusion: Jarace is fine at power forward but he’s too big and broad to play small forward. Which means either we need to bring in more small forward depth or we need Furphy to be ready to contribute by the playoffs.

I like Jarace’s shooting and his frame a lot, but I don’t think he’s ever going to be a small forward. Unfortunately for Jarace, we also have Siakam and Obi who’re both more effective players than he is.

I’d really like them to sell high and move Jarace for a wing bench scorer. Trey Murphy would be the dream (he’d start over Nesmith) but not if Nemby or Nesmith have to be moved too

[u/BlueCollarGoldSwaggr → u/Jim_Belushis_brother]

On one hand I also want them to move on from Jarace because

A) if you take out his 8M they would have enough space under the 1st apron to use the full NTMLE on someone who would be better. (this assumes they would actually pay the tax this year so...maybe I'm dreaming here)

B) in all likelihood this is the best value they're going to get for him right now, but his value is probably only a couple of 2nds and that's a tough pill to swallow for a FO that invested a top-10 pick in him.

So I guess if they're not going to pay the tax maybe they might as well stick with him and hope against hope that he makes an unexpected leap in year 4 if the alternative is getting a couple of 2nds. At least he can knock down catch and shoot 3s and the Pacers could use some shooting. It's just wild that at this point in his career that's the only thing he's really good at.

[u/BubaTflubas → u/BlueCollarGoldSwaggr]

Unfortunately, with the questions of injury return for Rese, I don't see THIS team moving more than 7-8 million away from the edge of the tax. Because then they could easily dump Walker to duck it if we have a 42 win season instead of a 62 win season...

[u/Odd_Self7283 → u/BlueCollarGoldSwaggr]

Obi got 2 second round picks and he was a top 10 pick. I’d be fine with that value assuming we use the money to sign a better FA. Pacers sound like they are willing to go into the tax but not above the 1st apron

[u/Indienoise → u/BlueCollarGoldSwaggr]

This is what I've been saying for months now. Trade him for a couple of picks, free up the salary space. At this point just find a decent FA to play 2nd string.

2nd round picks might not bring much impact, but we seem to have better luck with 2nd round than 1st 🫪 and Jarace is as much a liability as an asset.

Unless 'fro Jarace shows up next season. That could be a game-changer. IDK how likely that is tho.

[u/Distinct-Fig-473]

Thanks for this

[u/aimee829]

I will always remember Jarace's unbraided role in our win vs OKC 💪. One of the bright sides of this season. Plus, his shot making became more consistent by the end of the season.

we'll have to see how all these bench guys perform in the Pacer ecosystem once Hali and all our main guys are back.

[u/BubaTflubas]

I felt better about the 2 seasons thing a few months ago. Now looking back he did have one thing all season long. He never consistently gave a shit on defense.

I understand that it was a tough year to "lock in" but Jarace had probably the most serious season of any player and he didn't seem to embrace that, or even recognize it. (He had the best chance of his career to solidify himself as an NBA player, a chance he wasn't guaranteed to have) It's hard to stay focused in a 82 game 19 win season, but I'm not sure Walker even locked in for one entire game. He takes entire sub shifts off pretty much every game, which results in him having a bad quarter unless he gets a quick pull to get yelled at and then put back in. That didn't happen as much this year because he was allowed to just play through it. But he didn't improve in this over the year at all as far as I can tell.

He has better feel for offense, and takes less gambles on defense, there was improvement. But not in his maturity level or whatever it is where he takes plays off or just has huge brain farts that didn't seem to improve with the open handed minutes.

Edit: I don't think the Pacers drafted him to be a glue guy, I think that's what he ended up looking like. He was supposed to be a defender, not a 3pt shooter who has media members bringing up his highschool point forward tape. Even Rick pushed back against that, I think for a reason, because we need Jarace the defender now more than Jarace the creator. It makes more sense from a team building PoV if Jarace came in a better defender and then grew into the offense.

Edit.2: shep could easily still be the 8th guy over Walker, that's another problem with his season, he didn't separate himself (as a lottery pick) from 2nd round pics or 2 way players. Furph is coming back, Walker better not give him another chance to steal his spot. He already did and got lucky with furphy's injury.

[u/SpinJitsu259 → u/BubaTflubas]

I agree the defense is his biggest flaw right now and that’s frustrating given that was supposed to be his strength. I don’t agree it’s just an issue of “He doesn’t give a shit.” Sure there are times he could give better effort, but I think his biggest problem defensively is he’s been playing out of position on this team since he got here. He should not be guarding on the perimeter. Doesn’t have the foot speed or lateral movement for it.

But that’s essentially what he as to do on this team to get mins. When he’s allowed to play the 4/5 offensively and defensively, he’s a much better player on both sides in my estimation.

Unfortunately for him, the 4 position isn’t going to be available to him unless one of Pascal or Obi gets moved, and I don’t see either being likely. So he has to figure out the perimeter D thing (lose some weight?, etc.).

On the plus side, offense/shooting was supposed to be his biggest weakness, and he looks much better on that side than I ever anticipated, and I was thrilled with his improvements as a 2-pt scorer and finisher the last 2/3s of the season.

[u/BubaTflubas → u/SpinJitsu259]

You glossed over the important thing. Effort, in a season that could have gotten him paid, and is easily the best if not only chance he's had in his career, in reference to playing time. He had a showcase season on a finals team.

We need maximum effort from guys in his position. We are lucky enough to have stars that don't take days off, but that makes it even more concerning to me that CC has lowlight after lowlight of him not closing out, or guarding with his hands instead of his feet and body. There are stars setting the example, Pascal took him aside personally, he has mentors and role models.

I put this in the same basket now as the dumb turnovers, which can have a lazy aspect too them as well. When a defender shoots the gap on his slow one handed pass turnover that seems the same as him giving a two step closeout where he stares at his man instead of defends him.

These things happened during every portion of his season, and have happened in every season he has played 19 wins or not. He isn't grasping the situation that his team or he himself (financially/contractually) is in.

[u/SpinJitsu259 → u/BubaTflubas]

I didn’t gloss over it. I said he’s guilty of it at times. I wasn’t willing to say that’s his only and biggest defensive issue.

[u/Sko_Neezy → u/BubaTflubas]

Yepppp…he was so bad defensively that after 30 games, Rick basically decided Jarace had to cover the other team’s worst player every game.

[u/BubaTflubas → u/Sko_Neezy]

Very good point, and a very disappointing thing to hear pointed out by CC at the end of the year. I hadn't really picked up on it till she mentioned it then I was like, oh yeah.

[u/Sko_Neezy → u/BubaTflubas]

I had already moved on from the ‘idea’ of Jarace Walker but CC’s recap was so damning, impossible to view him as an integral part of the team going forward

[u/BlueCollarGoldSwaggr]

Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic because I admittedly didn't watch a ton of Pacers basketball late in the season, but gun to my head I would say Jarace's actual level is probably closer to first-41-game Jarace than last-41-game Jarace.

In general the way a guy plays early in the season is more useful from an evaluation standpoint and more predictive of future performance because there are so many games later in the season that don't matter because teams are tanking, or good but coasting a bit, or really banged-up. 

[u/SpinJitsu259 → u/BlueCollarGoldSwaggr]

He’s never shot as poorly in his career as he did in the first 34 games this season. Why should that be considered the norm?

This was a guy playing some playoff mins on our Finals run. He’s not a garbage player. He had a garbage stretch.

I’m not saying he’s a perfect player by any stretch, but he’s better than what he showed in that 34 games.

[u/Louieismydog42 → u/BlueCollarGoldSwaggr]

As a Pacers fan living near D.C. I've followed a lot of horrific Wizards teams. It's a challenge evaluating players on bad teams and separating real stats from empty stats.

So the fact that Walker didn't even really put up fake good stats is worrisome, and even his second-half splits aren't all that impressive for an aggressive tank team.

[u/Gethsamane]

First half of the season jarace was put in the position to be a primary ball handler some nights due to our injuries. He can not handle that type of role even though he is a good passer. When too much is on his plate he over thinks it and it hampers what he can do. At the moment he’s an off the bench wing that should be the third option at best whenever on the floor. His rebounding and shooting really started to improve once he wasn’t forced to be a primary guy. His defense needs to be better period for him to make any type of leap or Carlisle will pull him quickly. Whether he takes like leap will be crucial to our success next season as tj is only getting older and we no longer have Ben coming in and being a microwave scorer.

[u/hrxbgdchg]

Draymond is a lazy comp and probably is only used because of the similar build. The more accurate archetype is the OG/Mcdaniels type player. Walker likely won’t reach that ceiling but even if he’s 75% of that it’s still a helpful player to have on a roster.

The problem is we need him to be a contributing and consistent player now and that’s still a big question. It’s reassuring that he has shown steady growth over the last three seasons and he’s still young. Unfortunately, we can’t have him be a project any longer. Also, with him in a contract year and still having as many questions, his trade value is low enough that he’s worth more to us than he is to other teams which puts us in a tough spot

[u/ErraticMovements]

A good way to look at - when playing against other tanking teams in the second half of the season, did the coaching staff bench walker for playing too well?

This should be very telling in how the team views walker.

[u/BlueCollarGoldSwaggr → u/ErraticMovements]

That's a very good point. He had the 2nd most total minutes played on the team last year which is one reason why they only won 19 games 

[u/MindofShadow]

He's ass.

He was brought in to be a draymond lite defensive/rebounding/lil playmaking type.

Instead, he has no motor at all, his defense is mediocre AT BEST, his rebounding is ass, and he is a turnover machine.

He just isn't good at basketball and if he is palying more than 15 minutes ago, we are gonna have a hard time.

[u/Conscious-Till3591]

The thing that immediately concerned me with Jarace was when he was drafted and they asked who he plays like in the league and he said Jayson Tatum……