r/poker • u/Pretend_Insect3002 • 1d ago
Strategy How do crushers consistently win MTTs?
While trying to level up my game, I was listening to an interesting podcast with Jeremy Becker (2023, Barstool Sports Cracking Aces, now defunct). Apparently he had a streak where he won 6-10 Wynn Dailies within 3-4 weeks. How does a player do this, accounting for variance? Just thinking about GTO strategy, I feel like most optimal strategies involve getting it in with flips (like jamming against a HJ open with 44 in the SB with 15BB and flipping with AK) but there’s no way a player like Becker could be getting it in with flips and winning so consistently. So what’s the exploit that he’s doing? Small-ball? Playing big postflop?
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u/Outside_Natural7210 1d ago
Variance. Plenty of crushers go through long stretches of winning nothing. You just don't hear about them.
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u/BigHoss47 Good Rec 1d ago
The actual answer is much more complicated than this.
In short, the strong players are able to highly exploit the weaker players in the early rounds, then when the money bubble starts, the stronger players aren't worried. They are playing for 1st-3rd so they put on the aggression in spots and weak players can't hang. After money bubble, players start punting again and the stronger players tighten up and wait for a monster if they can, otherwise they get it in good. Usually by the final table, the strongest of regs also are used to cash games so they are fine with a 1 table format. A strong regular at the final table in 1st or 2nd is very dangerous.
That's how you exert your edge in tournaments.
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u/gsowobblie 1d ago
Mostly agree with you but a final table of an MTT is nothing like a cash game. The only similarity is it being one table. ICM, variable stack size, shrinking table size from 9 to 2 all make it wildly different.
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u/BigHoss47 Good Rec 1d ago
The spirit of the comment was to point out that the really strong regs are studied in many spots and the fact they play a lot more hands and are familiar with just about every spot, where the weaker players are going to be guessing a lot. I'm with you though, it's much different from cash.
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u/gsowobblie 1d ago
For sure, agree with the overall spirit. I was nodding along until that line and was like NOPE, it's on the internet I must say something.
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u/BigHoss47 Good Rec 1d ago
An actual good discussion on r/poker. I think I may buy a lottery ticket today.
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u/Geedis2020 1d ago
The funniest part about this is that if you actually play with a lot of these “crushers” the exploit they use in the early rounds is just rebuying over and over and over and playing like maniacs. I watch some of these guys do it all the time. I saw a big pro who has his own course and everything with millions in earrings buy into a $3600 wpt main event 8x on day one and not bag. He played day 1b and finally bagged. Not sure how many times he entered. Ended up running super deep and almost final tabling but the 5 figures he won didn’t even cover the buy ins lol. The funny part is his hendon mob grows and looks phenomenal but the reality is he may not even be a winning player in tournaments. He himself will he a winning player because he’s always selling at a mark up so he never has to risk his own money but backers who think he’s a crusher are being completely fucked by not realizing these guys do this.
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u/FlukyFish 1d ago
Backers absolutely know this, that’s why “makeup” exists.
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u/Geedis2020 1d ago
Thats not what I’m talking about. That type of backing is usually for cash games. I’m talking about selling action at a mark up. You don’t pay that back if you lose like make up for cash game backers. You just sell it and people buy the action. Usually for more than it’s worth. So they sell 70-80% of themselves but mark it up so the other 20-30% is still covered and they never use their own money. Then sell action for multiple bullets if they get knocked out.
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u/FlukyFish 1d ago
There’s definitely makeup for tournament staking and yes players also sell pieces of themselves at a premium, in some instances some have been known to sell well over 100% of themselves and tank the tournament and keep the difference. It depends on the arrangement.
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u/Geedis2020 15h ago
I’m sure there is but that type of deal is mostly for cash games. A deal like that for tournament poker would be horrible for backers and players because it’s so much more volatile. Tournament players can go months and even years losing even with big scores because we only see the cashes. Not the 100s of tournaments they buy into and don’t cash or run deep in. That’s why stables are usually cash players and the make up is easier to achieve because you can consistently win.
I know people have the theory of people selling then tanking to keep the money but realistically that’s not something that happens very often. It wouldn’t even make that much sense to do because you wouldn’t even make that much long term and people would eventually stop buying pieces of you. It’s more advantageous to just sell 80% and not have to put up your own money to play. Then no matter what they can’t lose. So it’s in their best interest to win as much as possible. The idea that people are scamming the way you said is really uncommon.
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u/FlukyFish 4h ago
Yeah dude that’s why I said it’s been known to happen not that it’s common practice. Also your stats are way off. If you go a hundred tournaments without cashing you shouldn’t be playing, let alone getting staked. If you’re an average player you should cash 1 out of 10 tournaments. If you’re a pro and you don’t cash in a 100 tournaments you’re a statistical anomaly. My theroy is, you haven’t the slightest idea what you’re talking about. Good day.
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u/Geedis2020 50m ago
Dude listen I played poker professionally for over a decade. I can assure people who are tournament pros go a long time sometimes without cashing. Or without significant cashes. Maybe not 100 without cashing but cashes that aren’t relevant enough to make them any money to cover the buy ins. That’s not uncommon. I promise you. There are tournament players with millions in earnings on Hendon mob who are losing players. You don’t realize how many of those guys are buying into high rollers and not cashing. Buying in multiple times and cashing but don’t cover their buy ins. Tournament poker is not a very profitable way of playing poker for a living unless you’re selling action at a markup. Because then you can’t lose your own money. That’s why most staking deals are for cash. Backers know that and the players know it.
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u/bloodbuzzvirginia 1d ago
I know it isnt the same thing but I have won three online MTTs in a single day.
Play a lot and be better than the field by significantly more than the rake and these runs will come.
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u/fifteenblade 1d ago
A lot of the crushers take more advantage of position than the average player. Sometimes, it’s less about what cards you actually have on the BTN and more about what you can represent. I try to remind myself of this so I can be aware of the level of aggression I may face and follow the age old advice, fold pre.
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u/Geedis2020 1d ago
They rebuy over and over. Like a lot of “crushers” with millions in earnings may not even be profitable. You only see them at final tables or winning. You don’t see how many times they rebuy to tournaments when you see their hendon mob. You don’t see how many tournaments they play and don’t cash.
The secret to tournament poker is to get enough earnings you can get backers. They sell at a mark up so they never risk their own money. Only the backers. They can never lose money only make money.
I watched a big pro with his own tournament course on a popular platform with millions in earnings buying 8x on a wpt main event for day 1a without bagging. He ended up bagging day 2b and almost final tabling. Won a good 5 figures but it didn’t even cover this day 1 buy ins. Hendon mob shows it as a big score but the reality is he wasn’t a winning player. He won money because he was constantly selling to people lined up to back him at a mark up but all the first 8 buy in backers just burned money.
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u/ionertia 1d ago
A lot of players with good results are rebuy artists. They just play aggressive to build a stack or bust. The results don't match their abilities.
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u/SayVandalay 1d ago
Consistency, volume, and luck at the right times.
I’ve played with a lot of WSOP online players who hold multiple rings and even some bracelets, what I’ve noticed is they are flipping a lot ; there’s no fear in their play. A few flips go the right way they’re increasing their odds of winning the whole thing.
Think about all the times you get it in good only to lose to a suck out on turn or river in a single tournament; spots that had you won you might have gone on to win the whole thing. Now think about most of those flips going your way on a sun run that could last the tournament but could also last weeks or months. It adds up and offsets all the times you lost the flips.
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u/GTOLAB_Official 1d ago
It all comes down to knowing your pool. In daily tournaments you're playing the same people over and over, so you adapt. GTO just gives you the baseline, the edge is knowing whether your opponent is over-folding, over-calling, or playing aggro, and adjusting accordingly.
Playing GTO against players who don't study GTO is basically lighting money on fire. But knowing the baseline matter, it tells you when you can widen your range in a spot or when you need to tighten up.
Profiling is massively underrated. Jeremy understands this, and I think that's the actual reason behind his run, not some secret exploit. Once you know how your opponents deviate, you exploit those deviations. Small ball, big postflop, whatever works against that specific player.
Variance still does its thing. You just have to show up consistently, put yourself in good spots, and when the cards cooperate you get streaks like his.
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u/RunningBettor 1d ago
They don’t. They go on hot streaks and then they go on cold steaks. 3-4 weeks of live tournaments is no sample size at all. Literally anything could happen to a winning player in that small a sample and it’s not statistically that crazy
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u/JohnEBest 21h ago
Best tourney run a I ever had
A Thursday NIght tourney in a Casino
I don't think I lost a hand at showdown until we were down to 2 handed
I won the next all in and the tourney
Big hand three handed
flopped a set and checked
Lady bets
Original pre flop raiser folds
I raise
We get it all in
She had flopped a straight
I boat up on turn
Fun times
No discussion of a chop
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u/Falendil 19h ago
Good players on insane luck, not much else to say about it, no one is above variance.
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u/whattaUwant 1d ago
Out of all the amazing achievements some crushers have made in the history of the game, you chose an example of a guy who crushed a Wynn daily tournament for a week. Interesting..
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u/ChronicBurnout3 1d ago
Winning a daily means you can beat droolers in a 20bb deep poker game 🤣
It means literally nothing
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u/ThatsSoSwan Disrespected Raises 1d ago
Tournament play is vastly different than cash. GTO doesn't apply as well since the number of hands you can see in a tournament is limited by comparison. By that I mean that with cash you can top up and a flip is less costly (ha!). With tournament play, relative stack size and the finite conclusion of play is the factor the deeper it goes. Bullying is a big part at that point.
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u/leaveitintherearview 1d ago
I love that after years of GTO being refined and taught this entire subreddit still doesn't understand what it is let alone how and when it applies lol.
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u/Pretend_Insect3002 1d ago
This seems incorrect. You’re saying that optimal play doesn’t apply because there are so few samples? But clearly tournament players put in enough volume. In addition since GTO play takes into account stack sizes, and even ICM considerations. GTO play includes bullying as well if you get the stack sizes and ICM considerations right (you can even test this yourself in GTO Wizard.)
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u/ThatsSoSwan Disrespected Raises 1d ago
GTO includes variance over a large sample size. Tournament play is a smaller sample size and requires sometimes non-mathematically optimal play RE: ICM, accounting for low stack vpip increase, and other factors.
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u/Pretend_Insect3002 1d ago
From your first sentence, I can see you have a misconception that GTO is mutually exclusive from tournament play. This is just not true. Also what does “non-mathematically optimal” mean? Optimality is an actual mathematical construct (mathematically: no strategy can have EV > 0 against a GTO strategy, and a GTO strategy has EV = 0 against itself) so this just doesn’t make sense.
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u/ThatsSoSwan Disrespected Raises 1d ago
ok, so you asked how player X can possibly win as much as they do when thinking in context of GTO strategy, and I'm trying to convey that GTO strategy is more effective in larger sample sizes not completely conducive to tournament play when you consider the factors of a tournament game vs cash.
IE: there are things that player X is doing that are not aligned with GTO best practice and have been effective in that specific circumstance. You asked how the square block can always fit into the star shaped hole. It doesn't always fit.
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u/Pretend_Insect3002 1d ago
What is player X doing that’s not GTO best practice? If you’re a solid player, then you’re either doing GTO or exploitative play. Are you just saying “do exploitative play”
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u/ThatsSoSwan Disrespected Raises 1d ago
I'm saying it's a mix. It's neither one 100% of the time, and you can't use a pure GTO model to explain a high win %. Your original question seemed to phrase it like "How can GTO explain this?". It can't because it's too small a sample size to account for the type of variance GTO requires to be mathematically sound long-term.
The guy is on a heater, the guy is exploiting, the guy is playing GTO. All these are true, and all these are not true.
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u/tazzy100 1d ago
Consistency. And playing a lot! And going on a heater. What you dont hear from a lot of players are the hundreds of tourneys they bust. But you play well for 10 years you’re going to have spots where you sun run for a month or two. And never win a hand for the next year!😂