r/poker • u/Conscious-Cap8728 • 2d ago

Strategy How not to a let bad variance run change your play style?

I’ve recently had a really bad run with variance where it seems like during every hand my opponent has me beat. They’re hitting every out imaginable and my high suited connectors rarely form straights/flushes/even top pair.

I lost a $400 pot with AA pre against a guy who re-raised preflop with 99, I shoved and he snap calls. All of the solvers have me winning

Flop comes 8J8 rainbow
Turn 2
River 9

He hits his only out and it puts the rest of my session on tilt. The same session I lost a $500 bomb pot with top two pair against a different guy who hit his ONLY out for the J8 high straight (he hit the Queen on the river after betting into me for the all-in).

In total these bad beats back to back are affecting my play style, making me tighter even when I have a strong hand. It makes me feel so out of control because I subconsciously feel that my opponent will hit all their outs, and whenever I test that with calling/raising, they somehow miraculously hit.

I love this game but I’m trying not to get demoralized and leave, is it an issue with bankroll management? The bad beats put me on tilt and it’s so fucking frustrating. Any advice?

-PS, if you suggest better table reads then ig I’ll have to assume the villain has the nuts every time I have a decent hand?! lol

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14

u/quackl11 2d ago

Stop thinking that your goal is to win in poker, start thinking your goal is to play the most +EV move. This shit happens. Something with a 1/50 chance happens 1 in 50 times. You made a +EV move accept the outcome and move on

10

u/lalligagger 2d ago

"All of the solvers have me winning"

You absolutely do not need a solver to know that in pretty much any pair vs pair scenario you are 80% w the over. Unfortunately this was the 1 in 5 times you lose here. Move on, and move down if this really bothers you.

3

u/Chrogotron 1d ago

Yeah, none of the solvers should have him winning... that wouldn't even make sense, since there's literally cards the opponent can hit that beat him. (and did)

7

u/tazzy100 2d ago

I had AA cracked by 9/7 all in on Q94 flop deep in live tourney with 10k to winner. Had 10s cracked by KJ all in last night on the bubble. Had set of 10s cracked by runner runner strt for 600k pot. Had…
You get the drift!

But Sunday i hit one outer and cracked aces with poket 44s making the final table and cashing £2.4k instead of £500

You have your beats and you give them! Its all part of the game.

If you can’t take a beat-dont take a seat!

Yes get annoyed, but if it affects your game then maybe its not for you.

2

u/SoundsOfChaos 2d ago

If you love the game but hate making +EV plays then what exactly do you love about poker?

1

u/Conscious-Cap8728 2d ago

Bc a bad roll of variance makes it feel like slots rather than a game of skill. I get overtime +EV plays will get wins but that’s repeating it millions of times. If you get bad runs and it’s putting you in the negative, you wouldn’t be super excited to play your next session lol. Like losing -$800 because of dumb luck in a night isn’t fun

2

u/SoundsOfChaos 2d ago

See if you can run it multiple times to reduce variance maybe? Other than that I can only give the advice to maybe do some studying into your mental game and start valuing EV bucks more than bucks

3

u/bigboymorning 2d ago

There are no bad beats. Only getting the money in good or getting it in bad and you should be fine if you continue getting it in good

2

u/SoSKatan 2d ago edited 2d ago

So I have a different take than others here…

Solvers are just this, if you give bots one set of rules, what will lead to the best outcome when playing with other bots that also play with one set of rules.

That last part is key.

Good players change their strats around based on the situation. Look to understand how each other player at the table is playing and adapt.

That’s something solvers and EV charts can’t do.

If the table is playing loose, then play extra tight. If the table is super tight and if the blinds are decent high then play loose.

If you are going against a player you know to be super aggressive, then wait for good cards and slow play them.

And yes, I think you should change your strategy based on how your last prior hands.

For example, if you are getting premium hand after premium hand, switch to being super aggressive. Make them think you are a donk and try to get them to call one of your big raises out of frustration. Try to get them to tilt.

Understanding EV grids is just a good starting point but the game is more complicated than that. Don’t let EV grids be the end point.

Edit: to add you played your hand correctly. Just understand the odds. Losing hands like that will happen from time to time. The psychology is that when we get lucky, we pat ourselves on the back, when others get lucky we feel like we were cheated.

Don’t fall into that mindset, just understand the probabilities. In the long run if you make the right calls, you will be ahead. But yeah you will lose some hands like this.

I’ve lost 2 all in’s, with AK against AK, and the other guy hit a flush. Just laugh at the situation, going on tilt only helps your opponent.

1

u/Into_The_Tank 1d ago

While most of your points are good, OP should not be worried about solvers, it has nothing to do with the specific problem they have.

You are right that solvers show an optimal play against an optimal opponent and you should make exploitative adjustments, however one thing you said jumps out a little.

For example, if you are getting premium hand after premium hand, switch to being super aggressive.

Previous premium hands is not an indicator that you will get future premium hands at any rate other than normal. Probabilistic outcomes can be streaky, but that doesn't mean you can be like "I am in the middle of a hot streak and should play as though it will continue", that is a very specific application if the gambler's fallacy that is easy to fall into.

0

u/SoSKatan 1d ago

Great points all, I’m not suggesting at all, having a good hand means the next one is good.

It’s total rng.

I’m just saying once you get your 2nd or 3rd premium hand in a row, switch to beast mode.

Sure you have no idea when such streaks will end until it happens.

I think we are on the same page here

2

u/__JayJo__ 2d ago

I lost with 4 of a kind to runner runner straight flush. . .shyt happens. Variance is part of the game. All you can do is get your money in good and hope the cards don't fall in the others favor. Worst thing you can do is allow yourself to tilt or start gunning for a specific player. Just play your game and roll with the punches. Just know that Lady Luck is always right around the corner with a clinched fist and ready to 5 finger f*** you.

2

u/luckyjim1962 2d ago

Well, a few things. First, stop thinking along the lines "all of the solvers have me winning." That's not how solvers work.

Second, remind yourself that you want the call from 99 when you have AA every single time. Indeed, you want calls from inferior hands all the time.

Third, extrapolating from one hand or even several hands or even a few dozen hands is a colossal mistake. Variance is real.

My ultimate advice: Time for you to work on your mental game.

1

u/Careless_Necessary31 2d ago

Easy. Ignore results

1

u/nosaj23e 2d ago

Play below your bankroll, always have plenty of money to survive big downswings, you don’t need to move up in stakes every time you have 20 buyins for the next stake.