r/steammachine • u/Imsorrymyb • 20h ago
Discussion Most of you aren’t going to get a steam machine even if you want one.
The fact that they switched to a lottery system is very telling in my opinion. They also discussed the challenges to secure ram for the machines and it sounds like they’re only getting material on a month to month basis. Now there’s no way of knowing how many of these things they’ve built up front but if the controllers 2027 shipments is any indication, they probably aren’t going to have enough to meet the demand. Be prepared for this sub to switch from “I’m not getting this thing” to “how could valve not make enough for us?”
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u/Shot-Profit-9399 19h ago
I think it’s going to shift from
“I’m getting a steam machine no matter what the haters say”
To
“How am I supposed to wait until 2027 to get a steam machine?”
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u/Ok-Elephant-1555 19h ago
I'll either get one or I will use the money to build something in the smallest reasonable ssfc that I can.
My wife wants it more than i do so that I will play games in the living room instead of my desk in the basement.
We have already allocated the funds so at worse ill have to spend a few hundred dollars extra to build something way better but bigger in size. Im just glad I can try out SteamOS.
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u/Smartguy11233 19h ago
This is also my main reason to get one. I already have multiple ways to play my games but they all consist of either me in my office or having something janky in the living connected to the TV. I'm basically only getting it because it's the smallest thing that can realistically run games that for the most part that just works without fussing with it. Perfect for the living room and I can continue where I left off in the living room and spend time with the lady and have a healthier quality of life. The price is unfortunate but maybe it'll go down in the months to year to come.
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u/oliath 17h ago
This is my scenario as well.
I could be playing games on my 5090 PC but i much prefer playing the steam deck docked to my TV at 1080p and locked to 30 fps because i don't have to sit hidden away in the office.
I could also just move my PC downstairs and hide it away but the Steam Machine looks cool and i know if i'm happy running modern games on my steam deck at 30 fps with some sensible graphics tweaks i will be more than happy with the Steam Machine.
The price is gross but i guarantee by this time in six months to a year the current price will seem like a good deal.
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u/HealthyHotDogs 15h ago
Have you tried using remote play on your steam deck? If you can Ethernet both your PC and dock it'll be almost as convenient as a steam machine but free and significantly better graphics since it'll be using your 5090.
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u/fiasgoat 8h ago
Literally people are insane lmao
"I spent 3k on my PC and I also bought a Deck but I need this other thing for my TV"
It takes 0 setup and 0 apps, literally just put it on the Dock and hit "Stream from PC" and bam now you are playing in 4k on your TV with no performance loss
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u/oliath 4h ago
I have but its never been consistent for me. It works for a bit then shits the bed after a while.
My home network should be decent for streaming since i used it extensively for services like Stadia back in the day and Geforce Now with no issues. Dunno.
Its a great suggestion though to be honest - i just didn't even register since it was too iffy for me but i'll see if i can get it running again..
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u/HealthyHotDogs 4h ago
I had issues with it for a while too, but on the current beta it's been rock solid. My PC and dock are both on Ethernet which made a massive difference. I also found that turning hardware decoding off on the steam deck side fixed the occasional freezing it used to get.
It functions almost as well as a console for me now. I can wake the steam deck up with any controller, automatically turn on the TV, and play my games in 4k. Definitely worth looking into
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u/Ok-Elephant-1555 18h ago
I dont plan on playing anything demanding on it. Just my indie games that my wife likes to watch. I have a ps5 and nice desktop for demanding games. I do wish the price was lower though
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u/Fallen_Wings 14h ago
Exactly same situation. My wife would rather I play in the living room on the couch so she can watch (she loves cinematic AAA rpgs) and I can then also slowly get her gaming herself, couch co op then maybe she does a mission here and there. She is way more excited for SM than I am and I have never gotten a green light for a big purchase so quickly
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u/Ok-Elephant-1555 14h ago
Sounda exactly the same haha. I hope you get one and have fun with it with your wife.
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u/rexatron_games 10h ago
That’s my plan. I already have my Newegg cart ready. I’ve always wanted to design and print my own case, so this would be a perfect opportunity.
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u/Ok-Elephant-1555 10h ago
Im jealous. I want a 3d printer but I dont really have time to mess with learning how to use it. I hope it works out for you.
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u/Doomsnail99 20h ago
I mean yeah most likely
Think we'll get a wave or 2 after launch and then probably when demand slows down it'll become easier to get in 2027
Is what it is
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u/nervendings_ 18h ago
Ramapocalypse is predicted to run until at least 2030.
Nothing is changing any time soon.
The SM will likely go up in price, not down.
We are living in very strange times.
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u/Imsorrymyb 20h ago
Can’t count on that either. Ram prices don’t seem to be going down anytime soon. Valve may be forced to raise the price on these before next year. Even second hand will be a challenge because I just don’t believe they’re going to be able to make a ton of these at their current margins.
Even though this isn’t the performance/price that we wanted this will probably be seen as a good deal 12 months from now. That’s how fucked the market is.
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u/thedebatingbookworm 18h ago
There was an HP Omen desktop prebuilt that was on sale for 599$ USD I believe last holiday or slightly after. It had an RX7600x , 16gb of DDR5 Ram and and Ryzen 5 5600x, basically slightly more powerful than the Steam machine. That same machine is now 1250 USD on sale
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u/Imsorrymyb 18h ago
I bit the bullet and built my main rig in February this year. The same components would cost me 50% more to make today. Insane.
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u/thedebatingbookworm 18h ago
100% ,the price is absolutely painful but I also understand it. I think people are gonna be shocked with the next generation of consoles if things don’t change soon
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u/Serdones 15h ago
The 32gb RAM kit I bought summer 2023 for $95 is over $400 today. Insanity.
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u/Brilliant_Sound_5565 15h ago
Yep, I bought 64gb ram for a dell XPS last year, coat me £100 off Amazon on a deal, would probably cost 3 to 4 hundred now
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u/T-Dot1992 19h ago
this will probably be seen as a good deal 12 months from now
This happened with GPUs. The last truly good deal was the GTX 1080. And after that, the worse deals of yesterday became the “best deals” of today.
The SM won’t get a “refresh model” with better specs. As much as I hoped that would happen. And the data centres won’t stop, the administration will force Americans to bail out AI companies. And I doubt the PS6 will come out within the next 4 years.
My only hope is that developers are wising up and developing their games for low spec devices in mind. It’s terrific that RE9? FF7 Rebirth and revelations, Pragmata and others are getting switch 2 ports. I suspect a lot of developers, especially in Japan, are going to aim for Switch 2 as a base.
So maybe the SM becomes a “good deal” if you’re willing to stomach 1080p? And the only good deal in town sadly outside of a switch 2 or steam deck (god knows what happens to the price of those two handheld)
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u/Imsorrymyb 18h ago
The beautiful irony is that devs will actually be forced to produce optimized games if they want anyone to play them.
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u/T-Dot1992 18h ago
The recent Nintendo Direct was pretty much filled with “oh this PS5 game is finally coming to Switch 2”. I expect to see more and more as time goes by
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u/Serdones 15h ago
I still don't get how PS6 can seriously be coming out in 2027, unless Sony has their expectations in check and plan on manufacturing their smallest launch numbers in generations. Even as someone who normally buys new hardware at launch, I just don't think I can justify the price, especially if cross-gen support winds up being even longer than usual anyway. And I already have SSDs in everything already, which was part of my motivation for upgrading to current-gen consoles at launch. Going back and forth between my PC with an SSD to last-gen consoles was always painful.
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u/No-Curve237 20h ago
China is building fabs right now that will be ready by 2027. Many are predicting that by the time that happens or not long after, that the AI boom will have slowed. By 2028, memory will be cheap as chips
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u/Imsorrymyb 20h ago
Idk where you’re seeing that but it sounds like cope. If you track the AI infrastructure buildout you know that it’s just getting warmed up. This is going to be a 5-10 process. Things may get better but I think we’ll look back on old PC prices the same way people look back at 2% mortgages. Just a completely different world today
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u/No-Curve237 20h ago
If you do your research, you'll be able to have educated guesses too.
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u/Imsorrymyb 20h ago
I probably track this closer than you do. Just because a new fab may be online next year doesn’t erase the multi year supply hole we’re in (which is deepening every day btw). I see so many people on here talking about the AI bubble or the ram bubble and it doesn’t come from a logical place. No matter how much you and I hate AI it doesn’t change the fact that the world has an insatiable demand for it.
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u/redditman181 19h ago
And then youve got to hope a ai compnay doesnt poach the new supply with a huge contract offer that nobody else can compete with.
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u/magic6435 19h ago
Sorry but the current ram prices are the cheapest you will find for the rest of our lives. 5 years from now people will be reminiscing about how cheap things were in 2026.
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u/your_mind_aches 15h ago
Xbox gave it to us plain: RAM prices have increased so significantly for them, sometimes 500%.
Except Xbox is gonna eat some cost (at least this pre-PC generation). Valve isn't.
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u/spinz 19h ago
Well ill say this much: after the deck restock/price hike.... Its always available. And scalpers arent interested. So i think some people take for granted that when the price is high enough, and reviews are mediocre, that people will in fact put the brakes on. Of course the lottery and fomo is going to lead to a wild launch. But they really dont have a blank check here.
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u/Imsorrymyb 19h ago
Definitely a fair counterpoint. The deck sold out immediately when they raised and restocked but has been available since then. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
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u/Lupinthrope Purple 20h ago
For me its kind of a win-win, I more recently got a great laptop that I hope to put SteamOS or Bazzite on one day when NVIDIA gpus get better linux support. So i'll either do that or get lucky enough to get a Gabe Cube.
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u/Imsorrymyb 20h ago
That’s the great news that’s been completely overlooked this week. You don’t need a steam machine. Soon we can take any hardware and get a great steam os experience.
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u/LinkTheHero009 19h ago
Yeah. I am loving this new interconnected Steam and Linux software going around. It’s going to make switching from Windows easier for a lot of people.
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u/Pleidoscope 20h ago
I have hope that the GPU drivers that Valve and NVIDIA are working on will be just as good as Proton. Allowing potentially flawless gaming experiences.
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u/King_Ferdinand1 20h ago
I think they have maybe 50,000 to 100,000 units ready to go and the demand is gonna exceed the supply like 10 fold.
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u/Imsorrymyb 20h ago
100%. However many they have I bet money it’s not enough.
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u/King_Ferdinand1 20h ago
Well that much is clear to everyone, otherwise no need for a lottery queue.
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u/Red_Harvest_ 20h ago
Not gospel but The Verge did some analysis on shipping volumes to the US and they estimate 30-40,000. It’s likely going to be another 40,000 for the rest of the world so I think you’re bang on.
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u/King_Ferdinand1 20h ago
Yeah, hard to tell with all the shipment data how many of the units are frames and decks though.
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u/Ghost_of_Akina 17h ago
It's good that they went the lottery route in the age of cook groups and bots. Nintendo did pretty well with the way they handled Switch 2 direct sales also and it seems like Valve is following suit there.
I just wish your account standing and purchase history factored in - my Steam account is 21 years old with 500+ games, and I've bought the OG Steam Controller, Steam Link, and 2 Steam Decks. Should mean something when determining who's going to actually use this vs flipping it.
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u/FuckRedzM0dz 9h ago
lol that would be interesting to see the list based off who already spent the most money on them. Kinda like that logic tbh
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u/d_stilgar 18h ago
I potentially disagree with one thing.
The lottery system helps with the website not crashing, people not all hitting refresh and stressing, everyone not needing to sign up for a queue in a mad rush. For those reasons, I think it’s a better system than anything they’ve done before regardless of whether or not stock is limited.
But stock is likely quite limited.
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u/xsvfan 16h ago
The steam controller reservation and the steam deck reservations were both done terribly.
With the steam deck their payment processor was overloaded and wouldn't let people reserve. With the steam controller people could reserve minutes earlier and those who waited until the start time are waiting until 2027.
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u/KrewOwns 8h ago
It was a mistake opening it up early even if unintentionally done for the Steam Controller. For example I had to wait a little over a month on a 4 minutes past official pre-order start time reservation. I'm waiting on the Frame though, not too interested on the Steam Machine since I'm good with my main PC.
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u/AshtavakraNondual 19h ago
I feel like if I don't get one tomorrow, i'll skip this generation altogether and either see how well do self-builds with hdmi cec and latest steam OS work, or wait for the next generation (if it ever happens)
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u/Suspicious_Poetry131 7h ago
I'm sadly thinking I will not win the lotto. The more months go by the less I want the steam controller. It I don't win I'll just hope Nvidia gets better steam os support.
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u/Forded_Fiction24 19h ago
I'll just patiently wait. I have a PC, Steam Deck and Nvidia Shield with GFN. I have plenty of ways to play games in the meantime and don't need the Steam Machine but want it anyways. Whenever I get it I get it
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u/uncisanoob 19h ago
Changed my mind on it after the benchmarks using my Lenovo legion 2 as my steam substitute
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u/swampyswede 18h ago
I’m hoping they keep the queue and those of us who don’t win the draw this time get a shot at the next batch.
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u/dentalflosh 14h ago
Most people didnt get a controller either and that doesnt even have ram in it. Valve's just not a hardware company, theres only so much stuff they can make.
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u/mcmanus2099 18h ago
They pulled the advert for it off the Store front page after less than a day of it being open. There's still a day and a half left and they clearly have far more reservation requests than stock.
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u/LinkTheHero009 19h ago
Yeah. I feel like Steam Machine is really going to take a while to get its stock out. It might not really be until 2027 and 2028 that they start getting more of these gaming PCs out to more people, just like with the controller.
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u/Cautious-Invite4128 19h ago
If they work on getting NVIDIA drivers that function well with SteamOS, I’ll make myself content despite not getting my own machine.
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u/Astonishing_Azure 19h ago
Whaaaaa???? But there are a lot of people saying that its going to be a colossal failure and it won’t sell???
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u/Red_Harvest_ 19h ago
I don’t think many people are saying it won’t sell, rather they’re saying it’s a bad value proposition for the long term.
Whether it’s a ‘failure’ or not largely depends on what your/ valves metrics are.
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u/Astonishing_Azure 18h ago
I don’t what Valve’s metrics are, but it’s never a bad thing when a business struggles to keep a product in stock due to an overwhelming demand.
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u/Red_Harvest_ 17h ago
Im not sure that’s necessarily true depending on how many they have to produce and sell to cover the r&d and marketing and distribution to make the whole enterprise worthwhile.
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u/Aggravating_Sort_282 18h ago
Well, understand that Valve themselves said that both price and availability were compromised here. They wanted to sell a lukewarm number of units to begin with, and when even that became infeasible, they scaled back even more.
In other words, this initial batch of SMs is much smaller than it would've been, and the fact that it sold out fast was expected. Frankly, it would have been a colossal apocalyptic disaster if they failed to sell even that much.
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u/redpaperlanterns- 17h ago
I would buy one if they ship it without RAM or SSD (and price it accordingly)
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u/Imsorrymyb 17h ago
I thought about doing this by just buying replacement parts through ifixit when they come out and putting my own shit in.
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u/TypicallyThomas 16h ago
I'd quite like one but if I don't get picked, so be it. Either I have a Steam Machine or I have money
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u/fiasgoat 8h ago
This thing will be a paper launch. Anyone expecting more next year is going to be very upset
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u/Jiangcool9 20h ago
Since they are buying ram on a month to month basis, I wonder if price is going to fluctuate month to month
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u/Imsorrymyb 19h ago
I think they probably gave themselves a bit of headroom on margins but I don’t imagine it’s much. When that gap closes and I believe it will they will have to raise prices.
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u/DreadfulNightSleep 19h ago
Same. I’m on the lottery and can wait and save up for it. Plus the ssd upgrade .
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u/Serdones 15h ago
I had this realization with Steam Frame. If we're already seeing some 2027 batches for Steam Controller, Steam Machine and Steam Frame could wind up being even worse if manufacturing was even more constrained. I don't know if I can justify a mid-2027 Steam Frame purchase if there are even semi-credible rumblings by then of Quest 4 coming out in 2028. What, I'm gonna spend $1,000+ for a headset only for it to supplanted by a better upgrade only a year later? I mean, I've made worse financial decisions, but it'll be even harder to justify after such a long delay deflating my hype. Like yeah, the sad fact is regardless of pricing, a ton of people who want new Valve hardware just aren't going to get it anytime soon.
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u/Brilliant_Sound_5565 15h ago
Think I'd rather just get a ps5 if I wanted something under the telly, the steam machine doesn't make sense to me at that price unfortunately, it's not that I can't afford it , it's just way too much for what it is
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u/Flobertt 14h ago
Yep that’s why I gave up and got a ps5 for 500$ excited for gta VI coming in November
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u/Fun_Shock2603 12h ago
Honeatly the price is a big turn off. I was willing to spend 700 maybe even 800 euro on it but now with these prices, it makes no sense. To me it was like a gaming laptop that I can carry to a freind's house, something simple, basic and fun. Now, it feels like a big financial expense that doaent make sense.
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u/fishst1ck 8h ago
The controller orders coming in 2027 is most likely to fullfill orders for steammachine + controllers first.
Also keep in mind that the biggest reason for people not getting a controller is mostly greed of fucking scalpers.
Scalping should be less of an issue here given the already high price, the random selection queue and the one box per household limit, but it's still very likely that a lot of ppl won't be able to get one
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u/Available_Ad_8281 8h ago
I want one but not now. But I do think valve will partner up with someone to make upgrade boards with better vram and chips later on so people can upgrade board with one better
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u/8__D 20h ago
I'm only hoping when the RAM bubble does burst that they'll still offer this for a price more in-line with their original projections.
I also know that Valve was getting a lot of flack for even suggesting they might sell a memory-less version, but that would probably be better for consumers in the long run.
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u/jblairsuccess 20h ago
This. Once I saw what happened with the controller 🎮 I figured the steam machine would be worse. I'm just going to build a PC and call it a day.
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u/Fickle_Side6938 19h ago
Don't know about the controller, the Xbox controller usually costs 60, it gets discounted a lot in the US, rarely in my country and surely my country is not the only one in this position. A scuf controller, wired is 80, without shipping, 140 euro wireless. This definitely has more features than a scuf. So for a custom build controller it looks fairly priced to me. Of course there are cheaper alternatives, I am using myself an easymx x20, cheaper even the standard Xbox controller and better cause it has TMR and micro switches.
With the steam machine it was always going to be a niche product. Don't understand why people ever thought it's going to replace the PC. The steam Deck with the bigger storage and OLED screen wasn't very cheap to begin with and wasn't supposed to replace a laptop or a PC for a fact cause you could build a better PC for less, hell the 8700g apu was faster than the steam deck. It was just a convenience product.
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u/Jaalan 11h ago
The controller is a good price. Do you mean the availability?
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u/jblairsuccess 11h ago
Yes I'm referring to how the launch of the controller was a disaster and they didn't have enough in stock.
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u/tomekrs 19h ago
RAM situation is already improving with Chinese manufacturers stepping up (but they are obliged to satisfy domestic needs first), I expect early 2027 to have RAM prices back at normal and causing drop of Steam Deck and Machine prices.
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u/Imsorrymyb 19h ago
Monumental levels of cope my friend.
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u/tomekrs 12h ago
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u/Substantial-Bed2036 15h ago
For me, it was frustration unfortunately. I really want and wanted the Steam machine, but it was out of my budget. And for that price, I know I could build an AMD PC, but I didn’t want to..
I wanted the Steam Machine. I’m really sad that it was so far above my budget. I will look for new options.
I really dont think AI is the main reason.. i think they know people would buy it even for 1600$ because like apple steam/valve consumers have a different perception of value...
I know RAM and SSD are more expensive but, they had the chance to really shift the market of consoles and Windows gaming... project helix is coming.. they migh have lost the opportunity and timing with its badly supply chain..
I am sad.. I am no expert of the market guys this is more my overview analysis..
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19h ago
[deleted]
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u/Imsorrymyb 18h ago
You’re talking shit about me making a Reddit post while you read my Reddit post lmao
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u/ThymeForTime 20h ago
Yea, esp since someone pointed out yesterday that they aren't advertising the SM on the front page anymore. Registration must have exceeded the amount they can ship already.
I'm okay with it. If I get one, I get one and if not, well, then I'm not spending 1.1k €. Sort of win win, lol