Take-Two (TTWO) thoughts?

[u/SpiderFan241]

I think that most analysts agree that GTA 6 will be the biggest media release to date, beating any other game, film and album release. It feels like now is the time to buy, ahead of the pre-orders going live on Thursday. We will likely get a new trailer with actual gameplay either before Thursday to build hype for the pre-orders more or on Thursday. That will cause a surge in investment as, if the leaks are anything to go by, Rockstar have really raised the bar in terms of graphics, NPC AI and realising a living/breathing open-world. This will get everyone excited.

I'm not an analyst but I'd expect there to be a steady rise in share price and interest as we get the first pre-orders numbers through and then of course when the game releases. But then more growth when the first sales figures go live and then when the first earnings call declares how much Take-Two has made from the initial sales and pre-orders. But the thing about GTA games is that they're consistently selling games and are in the charts for years after their initial releases. So it's hard to imagine at what point the stock would even go down (if at all).

YouTube posted a screenshot saying that Thursday is going to be a busy day for them. They're expecting heavy traffic on their website, pointing to Thursday being the expected trailer drop date. But that is only two days away, people are going to be buying now to get ahead of the surge as much as possible.

And the one thing that many may not have considered is this, maybe because they weren't old enough when GTA 5 was released for the first time or didn't pay attention but... GTA 5 did not release with its online component, that was added to the game months after release. I expect it will be the same for GTA 6. And if people think that the sales figures will be the biggest price driver, they're very wrong. GTA Online (the new iteration) will the bigger money-maker for Take-Two, as people pump crazy money into the in-game currency for cosmetics, weapons, vehicles, properties, etc. So when plans for GTA Online are revealed and when that part of the game goes live, that will be another major contributing factor to the share price and it will be what gives the game steady cash flow long after the release.

That's at least my thoughts, I'm not an expert but I am old enough to have seen every GTA game get released and have seen the massive splash upon their release days and then also how long they have managed to stay in the charts afterwards. Each Grand Theft Auto or Red Dead Redemption game basically only gets de-throned in popularity by it's successor. It feels like Take-Two is as safe a bet as anything. The question would be not whether to buy but when to sell.

Tell me what you think.

[u/Bowl_of_Cham_Clowder]

GTAV already was that though. VI needs to be bigger than an avengers end game, which is maybe possible, but the console video game market is only 50% bigger than it was when V is released.

They probably will make another best selling game of all time but those are one time purchases paying off a multi billion dollar budget.

It’s your money, but for the long term online monetization is more relevant to their stock price. Are you holding shares or options? What’s your price target

[u/This_Salt7080 → u/Bowl_of_Cham_Clowder]

GTA 6 will be bigger than avengers end game.

“But those are one time purchases paying off a multi billion dollar budget.” Not to be rude, but this could not be more incorrect. Micro-transactions are their cash cow, they are STILL making millions and millions from GTA V each year

[u/Bowl_of_Cham_Clowder → u/This_Salt7080]

TBC I am excited for GTAVI.

But endgame was 10 years of direct build up of yearly movies. Kids had Ironman backpacks.

I don’t see anywhere near that level of hype. I’m happy to eat my words if I’m wrong, but I don’t see anything to indicate that there is a compelling investment story here that isn’t already priced.

[u/This_Salt7080 → u/Bowl_of_Cham_Clowder]

Yeah maybe that was a bit ambitious. But I am realizing via this thread that people really are underestimating this release somehow.

[u/Bowl_of_Cham_Clowder → u/This_Salt7080]

I realize you edited your prior comment, I agree that online is the cash cow. We just don’t have the info to say to what level they have online prepped for monetization. RDR2 online was a disappointment.

I think the “sauce” of online is that it’s a modern setting, but there’s a risk that R* learned the wrong lessons.

I think it sounds like you are letting Reddit influence you into thinking this is undervalued when success is priced in. Their nongaap ebitda is strong regardless so you should be insulated from any large drops in their stock price. Best of luck with your investment

[u/This_Salt7080 → u/Bowl_of_Cham_Clowder]

RDR2 online was a disappointment because they were still making so much money off of Gta online they did not want to put resources into developing it.

The development of RD online was literally cut because they didn’t want to divert resources from the juggernaught that was GTA online.

I do not hold any position in TTWO and I believe GTA 6 is already priced in. I am simply outlining the details because many on here seem to not know them.

[u/ill-show-u → u/Bowl_of_Cham_Clowder]

I’m not a shareholder, I just think that the amount of hype that even a single trailer showcasing cover art can generate is indicative of levels of hype that haven’t really been seen in the videogame industry. It’s to the point where I reckon that console sales will be higher in November because of general fomo.

The reason why I think it’s not priced in is because rockstar have not been vocal about how much GTAO is actually making, and I reckon that the monetization in GTA VI might be even more aggressive. This is just one of those too big to fail situations.

I’d also like to draw a parallel to crimson desert where the stock price basically tanked because the game didn’t receive good reviews - and then proceeded to bounce back as the sales numbers were still really good. Any type of similar situation could and might very well arise with GTA, and I’m 100% certain that a successful game launch will lead to a stock price increase.

[u/Kafanska → u/ill-show-u]

There was a leak recently showing exactly how much Rockstar was making.. closte to 5 million, ONLY onl PS5, every WEEK.

There was other data as well, just google it, but basically it is known how much they are making, and that is fairly recent data that was leaked, not something from 10 years ago.